We got fleeced by Palmer.

[greenwichjetfan]

19 hours ago, TeddEY said:

I'm not talking about the team.  I'm talking about QB play.  I don't blame Adam Gase for the team being bad, and I also don't blame Sam Darnold for the team being bad.  Not one time in all of my posts on the subject could you find that assertion.  The reason the team is bad is that Mike Maccagnan drafted 5 years and we only have like 11 guys on the roster, and nearly half of them are from 2019.  What makes sense, and what I do blame on Sam Darnold, is Quarterback play.  The reason the QB play on the Jets is not very good is because Sam Darnold is not very good.  I think if he were good, we'd still probably be 0-2.

I certainly think, and have said as much, that he can be better with better weapons, and perhaps a better coach.  But, I've also said that this is all a lot of words for a very binary, yes/no decision.  Is Sam Darnold good enough, or do I feel strongly that a better supporting cast/coach will reveal him to be good enough, that the New York Jets should not aggressively pursue a QB.  Absolutely not.

I was 2 when Steve Young was bad, so I'm not certain I can say what I would have thought about his first full season as a starter.  What I can say is that Drew Brees in 2004 and 2005 was clearly a very good QB, and that's prior to Peyton.  The Gase/Tannehill thing is vastly overstated, as Tannehill had a very solid 2016 until injury, didn't play in 2017, and had a decent 2018 and didn't play a whole season.  In TEN, the offense runs through Henry, but yes, he looks to be better - He was also healthy for the first time in a long time.  As for Smith, he went from bad to adequate, and you saw how, despite solid seasons in KC, they were quick to move on.  Don't imagine they regret it - though maybe they wish they could have taken Jamal Adams instead?

7 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

So, for you, QB play is binary based on when you want it to be. So in 1985 Steve Young was a no, and the 49ers are stupid for ever having brought him in. Except in 2020, you get to post on a Jets messageboard that Steve Young was actually a yes and that you could see it from his time in college; nevermind his first 4 years as a pro which were remarkably worse than anything Darnold has put on tape. As I said earlier, it’s documented on YouTube if you’d be so inclined, and I know you know what YouTube is, but as it doesn’t fit your narrative, you’ll just tell me you were only 2 and have no opinion on it. The point of all this, as I’ve said many times: circumstances matter. In this case, the degree that it mattered was taking a clear bust on two different professional teams and turning him into a 1st ballot HoFer.

Alex Smith was clearly affected by circumstances to the point where he went from an all time to bust to one of the most well-regarded game managers in the history of the NFL (according to AY/A).

Drew Brees was let go in free agency before his second contract. I’d pump the breaks on “very good” and probably go with solid at best. Irregardless (on purpose, for levity), even if you want to call him very good, Payton and his team turned him into one of the greatest of all time.

More recently: LJax came into the league as a raw athlete and was considered a project, his first year in the league, he started 7 games and hovered around 58% completions and a 6.98AY/A against a soft schedule. Harbaugh switches coordinators, and LJax jumps to 66% complete and 8.92 AY/A in an MVP season - less than 2 years from being a project and a reach in the first round. And before anyone goes there: I readily submit that LJax is a better athlete and QB than Darnold, no matter what Darnold becomes. Still, my original point stands: circumstances matter. 

We’re not getting anywhere here so I’ll summarize and you let me know what I’ve gotten wrong. Otherwise, we can go our separate ways. Either way, this was a fun discussion and I appreciate you keeping it that way.

EY: The team being bad due to Idzik and Macc is a reasonable factor in Gase not being able to succeed, but plays little part in Darnold’s ability to succeed. Similarly, Gase’s entire track record with multiple QBs and teams prove that he’s hot garbage, but it plays little part in Darnold’s ability to succeed. The reason that neither the team nor the coaching staff has more than just little impact on Darnold’s ability to succeed is because QB play is binary at whichever moment you want it to be, and you don’t believe Darnold is a good QB today and based on that, don’t believe he will ever become one. You want to move on from Darnold at all costs and it doesn’t really matter whether Gase stays or goes because the head coach/OC has little impact on a young QB, and Gase’s failures can be excused by having inherited a bad roster.

GJF: Circumstances matter. Gase is garbage and it was readily known before we hired him. Macc and Idzik’s failures didn’t doom him in Miami for 3 years or Chicago as on OC for 1 year with players like Cutler, Forte, Alston, Bennett, Miller. Darnold was considered by some as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and by many others as a slam dunk 10 year starter prospect. In year 1, he showed genuine signs of development. If we had hired Kliff Kingsbury, Darnold’s career arc would have been different. Instead, we hired Gase, and Darnold has regressed in every single QB eval. Once Darnold is free from Gase - whether here or elsewhere, he will still be young enough and good enough to become a solid starter or better. Obviously there’s the third result where he’ll continue to fail, and I’m not dense enough to not see that as legitimately viable, but I believe he’s better than what we’re seeing currently. I want to draft Lawerence or Fields if available this coming April because it would be reckless not to, but if they aren’t available, I don’t want to trade up for them. I’d rather use those picks to build up the roster and see what Darnold has to offer within better circumstances. I want to fire Adam Gase and his entire staff at all costs.

[kevinc855]

On 9/20/2020 at 7:52 PM, ganggreen305 said:

I’m just so down about Darnold.  I was so excited about him this year.  I watched all these videos from Palmer about nobody looks better or is working harder than Darnold.  He’s actually gotten worse with Palmer and Gase.  So upset.  

He has no weapons...…...JD is burning down the house, maybe its planned but It will cost us Darnold

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, CTJetsFan said:

If I'm not mistaken, Sam will still have 1 year left on his rookie deal in 2021 and the Jets will then have the 5th year option in 2022 so they don't need to make the 30 million $ decision based on this year.

  

13 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Forcing an evaluation simply because we're impatient and we have to decide whether to pay him or not is idiotic.

 

We have to make the decision on his 5th year option by early May, 2021.  That 5th year option will be estimated to cost around $25M.

He has 14 games left to prove he's worth $25M in 2022 and $30M+ after that, whether you like it or not.  Call it idiotic all you want, that's the reality of the situation.  Don't shoot the messenger.

Joe Douglas didn't draft Darnold and owes him nothing.  And unlike fans on this board, he probably recognizes its possible to evaluate a QB even if his circumstances are sh*tty.  

[CTJetsFan]

46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

  

 

We have to make the decision on his 5th year option by early May, 2021.  That 5th year option will be estimated to cost around $25M.

He has 14 games left to prove he's worth $25M in 2022 and $30M+ after that, whether you like it or not.  Call it idiotic all you want, that's the reality of the situation.  Don't shoot the messenger.

Joe Douglas didn't draft Darnold and owes him nothing.  And unlike fans on this board, he probably recognizes its possible to evaluate a QB even if his circumstances are sh*tty.  

Thanks for clarifying the dates. Didn't realize decision on 5th year option needed to be made before the 4th year even starts.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

Thanks for clarifying the dates. Didn't realize decision on 5th year option needed to be made before the 4th year even starts.

Yep.  That way the player knows if he's going to be a FA at the end of the 4th season prior to that season beginning.

This idea that we can give Darnold the 2021 season to decide on him isn't really based in reality.  

[CTJetsFan]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  That way the player knows if he's going to be a FA at the end of the 4th season prior to that season beginning.

This idea that we can give Darnold the 2021 season to decide on him isn't really based in reality.  

Man, that sucks.

Is the 5th year option calculated like a Franchise Tag salary or is that salary already in his rookie contract?

[CTJetsFan]

13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  That way the player knows if he's going to be a FA at the end of the 4th season prior to that season beginning.

This idea that we can give Darnold the 2021 season to decide on him isn't really based in reality.  

Found this - https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2020/6/24/21301116/changes-to-the-fifth-year-option-salaries-in-the-new-cba-pittsburgh-steelers-fitzpatrick-devin-bush

My head hurt so I stopped trying to figure out where Sam might be:

2020 CBA changes

If you want to read the CBA jargon yourself, click here and scroll to page 41.

With the new CBA, 2018 first-round draft picks and beyond are affected.

Fifth-year options become fully guaranteed at the time they are exercised which is before May 3 in the fourth league year of their contracts. This makes the fourth year fully guaranteed as well.

The amount of the players fifth-year option will be determined by the following criteria:

1. Players who reach a certain threshold will earn a base salary which amounts to the fourth-season salary cap average of the salaries of the third through 25th highest-paid players at that position and can’t be selected to the first ballot of the Pro Bowl in any of his first three seasons. The position will be defined by whichever position he played the most during his third season. The threshold which activates this salary schedule are if the player did NOT:
a. Play 75 percent or more of the offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons.
b. Average 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons
c. Play 50 percent of offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three seasons.

2. Players who reach a certain threshold will earn a base salary that amounts to the fourth-season salary cap average of the salaries of the third through 20th highest-paid players at that position and can’t be selected to the first ballot of the Pro Bowl in any of his first three seasons. The position will be defined by whichever position he played the most during his third season. The threshold that activates this salary schedule are if the player DID:
a. Play 75 percent or more of the offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons.
b. Average 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons
c. Play 50 percent of offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three seasons.

3. First rounders selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot in any of their first three seasons will receive a fifth-year salary equal to the transition tag of the player’s fourth year.

4. First rounders selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot in more than one of their first three seasons will receive a fifth-year salary equal to the franchise tag of the player’s fourth year.

---

Summarizing the four payment levels

To summarize, the four different qualifying levels are:

Level 1: Players who didn’t meet the number of snap requirements or make the Pro Bowl
Level 2: Players who did meet the requirements but didn’t make the Pro Bowl
Level 3: Players who made one Pro Bowl
Level 4: Players who made multiple Pro Bowls

They are not called these “levels” in the CBA, but I’ve decided to put them here to help better understand how the system works.

 

 

[Drums]

I’m not as down on Darnold as I was after week 1 but I’d like to see him get more mobile. I don’t care what the play is that is called, use your instincts and make some plays like we know you can make. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, CTJetsFan said:

Found this - https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2020/6/24/21301116/changes-to-the-fifth-year-option-salaries-in-the-new-cba-pittsburgh-steelers-fitzpatrick-devin-bush

My head hurt so I stopped trying to figure out where Sam might be:

2020 CBA changes

If you want to read the CBA jargon yourself, click here and scroll to page 41.

With the new CBA, 2018 first-round draft picks and beyond are affected.

Fifth-year options become fully guaranteed at the time they are exercised which is before May 3 in the fourth league year of their contracts. This makes the fourth year fully guaranteed as well.

The amount of the players fifth-year option will be determined by the following criteria:

1. Players who reach a certain threshold will earn a base salary which amounts to the fourth-season salary cap average of the salaries of the third through 25th highest-paid players at that position and can’t be selected to the first ballot of the Pro Bowl in any of his first three seasons. The position will be defined by whichever position he played the most during his third season. The threshold which activates this salary schedule are if the player did NOT:
a. Play 75 percent or more of the offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons.
b. Average 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons
c. Play 50 percent of offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three seasons.

2. Players who reach a certain threshold will earn a base salary that amounts to the fourth-season salary cap average of the salaries of the third through 20th highest-paid players at that position and can’t be selected to the first ballot of the Pro Bowl in any of his first three seasons. The position will be defined by whichever position he played the most during his third season. The threshold that activates this salary schedule are if the player DID:
a. Play 75 percent or more of the offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons.
b. Average 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons
c. Play 50 percent of offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three seasons.

3. First rounders selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot in any of their first three seasons will receive a fifth-year salary equal to the transition tag of the player’s fourth year.

4. First rounders selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot in more than one of their first three seasons will receive a fifth-year salary equal to the franchise tag of the player’s fourth year.

---

Summarizing the four payment levels

To summarize, the four different qualifying levels are:

Level 1: Players who didn’t meet the number of snap requirements or make the Pro Bowl
Level 2: Players who did meet the requirements but didn’t make the Pro Bowl
Level 3: Players who made one Pro Bowl
Level 4: Players who made multiple Pro Bowls

They are not called these “levels” in the CBA, but I’ve decided to put them here to help better understand how the system works.

Yep.  This confirms what I stated:  His 4th season will be 2021.  We need to exercise the 5th year option by May 3, 2021.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, CTJetsFan said:

Man, that sucks.

Is the 5th year option calculated like a Franchise Tag salary or is that salary already in his rookie contract?

The number is based on the 10 highest salaries at the player's respective position during the previous season.

Last year, the QB 5th year option was worth a little under $25M.  It'll likely be a little bit higher for Darnold if exercised.

[Obrien2Toon]

https://1045theteam.com/qb-coach-jordan-palmer-expects-big-things-from-christian-hackenberg-audio/

[Smashmouth]

On 9/20/2020 at 7:07 PM, Vader said:

Yes. And the offensive system. And the lack of roster support.

So if you have a great WR does that stop you from being afraid of the rush, refuse to step up in the pocket, throwing off your back foot, or even finding said open WR ? It doesn't . Darnold plays scared and has been regressing just like Sanchez did hes the same damn guy with different issues causing him to be just as terrible of a QB. Thing is I think Sanchez had a better grasp on the mechanics which led me to believe he could eventually improve with his decision making and accuracy but he never did. trying to recover from terrible mechanics and fear are much much harder by a wide margin. 

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 Joe Douglas didn't draft Darnold and owes him nothing.  And unlike fans on this board, he probably recognizes its possible to evaluate a QB even if his circumstances are sh*tty.  

 

And Joe Douglas may very well do that.  But, if he assesses that Darnold is easily worth the 5th year option based on how he's performing thus far I can see a ton of fans around here turn on him.  They'll then take the opposite side of your argument saying, "How the heck could JD decide Darnold was worth that with the Jets going 3-13 and Darnold finishing as the 25th ranked QB?"   The answer will be that Joe recognized he could evaluate Darnold even in those sh*tty circumstances and made a decision that Darnold, with better players and a better coach, is worth the price.

One thing is for sure, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

[jgb]

When you inherit billions and never do a thing productive in your life and are surrounded by "yes men," your ability to detect B.S. is zero.

I'd trust a Long Island plumber's gut impression of someone over either Johnson.

[Vader]

3 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

So if you have a great WR does that stop you from being afraid of the rush, refuse to step up in the pocket, throwing off your back foot, or even finding said open WR ? It doesn't . Darnold plays scared and has been regressing just like Sanchez did hes the same damn guy with different issues causing him to be just as terrible of a QB. Thing is I think Sanchez had a better grasp on the mechanics which led me to believe he could eventually improve with his decision making and accuracy but he never did. trying to recover from terrible mechanics and fear are much much harder by a wide margin. 

Darnold > Sanchez 

not close 

[Sharky7337]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

When you inherit billions and never do a thing productive in your life and are surrounded by "yes men," your ability to detect B.S. is zero.

I'd trust a Long Island plumber's gut impression of someone over either Johnson.

My Johnson as always gotten me into trouble!

[Jetsfan80]

18 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

And Joe Douglas may very well do that.  But, if he assesses that Darnold is easily worth the 5th year option based on how he's performing thus far I can see a ton of fans around here turn on him.  They'll then take the opposite side of your argument saying, "How the heck could JD decide Darnold was worth that with the Jets going 3-13 and Darnold finishing as the 25th ranked QB?"   The answer will be that Joe recognized he could evaluate Darnold even in those sh*tty circumstances and made a decision that Darnold, with better players and a better coach, is worth the price.

One thing is for sure, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

 

Huh?  Most posters here feel positively about Darnold and think that a new HC is all we need to "fix" him.  People would be praising Douglas, not turning on him.  

Either way, like I said, these final 14 games is his "make or break".  He doesn't get to use 2020 as a mulligan season because of his circumstances.  Do you now agree with that assessment?

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, Vader said:

Darnold > Sanchez 

not close 

Even if that's true, he's not far enough away from Sanchez to be a franchise QB.  Sanchez was simply that bad.  When ranking the QBs in the NFL at any given time, Sanchez was about QB35-40 behind all 31 other starters and several backups.

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Huh?  Most posters here feel positively about Darnold and think that a new HC is all we need to "fix" him.  People would be praising Douglas, not turning on him.  

Either way, like I said, these final 14 games is his "make or break".  He doesn't get to use 2020 as a mulligan season because of his circumstances.  Do you now agree with that assessment?

Not sure that I do.  Darnold could certainly "break" if he's a train wreck over the final 14 games.  He could also "make" if he does something ridiculous like throw for 4,000+ yards with a 25-10 TD/INT ratio on a bad team this year.  My guess is that neither of those happen and we're stuck yet again with a middling performance on a bad team that puts the pressure on Douglas to do exactly what everyone here is trying to do, answer the question of whether a bad HC and a bad roster are the things keeping a very good QB from looking very good.

[Dcat]

On 9/20/2020 at 8:07 PM, Untouchable said:

Palmer didn’t fleece sh*t

We took one of the most highly touted QB’s of the last 20 years who was known as a natural born gunslinger and risk taker, and stuck him in the most unimaginative offense possible which calls for some sort of screen pass on 80% of his drop backs...

It’s sickening how f*cking inept Gase is.

If you think these assh0les wouldn’t ruin Lawrence too, then you’re kidding yourself.

100% on the money. Darnolds regression is on Adam Gase. Shameful.