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Sam Darnold Discussion Thread: MERGED

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I would

So, it is in the teams best interest to allocate 15% of it's salary resources to a player who has never played a full 16 game season, never finished outside of the bottom of the league statistically, and never won?

You're willing to latch the next 5 years to that, because you hope that either the light is going to magically go on, or the terrible performance is everyone else's fault, all while acknowledging how difficult it will be to improve the team with him taking 15% of the resources.

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5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

So, it is in the teams best interest to allocate 15% of it's salary resources to a player who has never played a full 16 game season, never finished outside of the bottom of the league statistically, and never won?

You're willing to latch the next 5 years to that, because you hope that either the light is going to magically go on, or the terrible performance is everyone else's fault, all while acknowledging how difficult it will be to improve the team with him taking 15% of the resources.

 

Apparently a sizable chunk of the fanbase reads everything you just wrote, and despite watching him play last week, still says "sign me up for a $30M+ per for Darnold."

Insanity.  

It's not like Week 1 was the first time we've seen that "version" of Darnold either.  And at his best, he's been Andy Dalton.  

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

A lot of it is that none of us have any patience anymore, because, how could we? 

Once you watch this team for a few decades, you start to see that as much as things change, they stay the same. 

It's hard to tell this fanbase to wait for anything . . . we've been waiting our entire lives. 

I'm no different in the whole waiting thing.  And there are a lot of things I'm impatient about too (starting with Adam Gase) so it's definitely not like I see this franchise with rose colored glasses.  But, to me, we have to give Sam a very thorough chance before we even consider moving on (being in position to draft Trevor Lawrence would be an exception).  We haven't had a guy with his potential in forever.  I'm not throwing that away due to some early-career growing pains.

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I was a 3 on Monday because I was so disappointed in Sunday's game. In reality we will be in 4 mode all year. He's 23 and the upside is too great to give up now. 

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17 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

So, based on everything you've seen, you'd give him 30M plus?

You wouldn't be giving him $30 million plus if you reupped now.  That's the point.  Sign him to an extension at a discount.  And yes, I would sign him to an extension.

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7 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

A lot of it is that none of us have any patience anymore, because, how could we? 

Once you watch this team for a few decades, you start to see that as much as things change, they stay the same. 

It's hard to tell this fanbase to wait for anything . . . we've been waiting our entire lives. 

You have to give a reason to wait.

Most QBs who start out looking bad, end up looking bad.

Sam Darnold hasn't given a valid reason why we should wait any longer.  He hasn't given a reason why he won't be one of those guys that wasn't good to begin with, and stayed that way.  "Adam Gase sucks" and "the roster sucks" aren't enough reason to pass on improving the QB position after this year, should it not improve significantly on it's own.

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6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm no different in the whole waiting thing.  And there are a lot of things I'm impatient about too (starting with Adam Gase) so it's definitely not like I see this franchise with rose colored glasses.  But, to me, we have to give Sam a very thorough chance before we even consider moving on (being in position to draft Trevor Lawrence would be an exception).  We haven't had a guy with his potential in forever.  I'm not throwing that away due to some early-career growing pains.

I don't disagree, but I think giving him a full 3rd year is enough to judge. To me, he has to play better this year than he did last year, or we should probably move on. 

This roster is ass and so I'm not asking him to lead us to a winning record or anything unrealistic, but I think it's fair to expect him to be one of the strengths of the team and he did not look like that last Sunday. I want him to be at least "solid."

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8 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

So, it is in the teams best interest to allocate 15% of it's salary resources to a player who has never played a full 16 game season, never finished outside of the bottom of the league statistically, and never won?

You're willing to latch the next 5 years to that, because you hope that either the light is going to magically go on, or the terrible performance is everyone else's fault, all while acknowledging how difficult it will be to improve the team with him taking 15% of the resources.

If you want to keep a QB in today's NFL, that's the price you have to pay.  I'm not saying there wouldn't be risk involved in betting heavily on Sam but, yes, I'd be willing to take my chances on him.  Keep in mind that there's also a huge risk in letting a young QB go (after you've suffered through his growing pains) and letting him become a star elsewhere.  

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Just now, Phillyjet said:

You wouldn't be giving him $30 million plus if you reupped now.  That's the point.  Sign him to an extension at a discount.  And yes, I would sign him to an extension.

Sam Darnold, who held out prior to his rookie year, is going to take a meaningful discount?  The deal you're proposing would be awful for both sides.  Jets give, say 25M, for a guy who's never played a full season and who has never shown he can even be consistently average, tying themselves to him for multiple years, while Darnold gives up a shot at another 50M, which he'd only do if he knows he sucks, which, in actuality, he very well may.

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2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don't disagree, but I think giving him a full 3rd year is enough to judge. To me, he has to play better this year than he did last year, or we shouuld probably move on. 

This roster is ass and so I'm not asking him to lead us to a winning record or anything unrealistic, but I think it's fair to expect him to be one of the strengths of the team and he did not look like that last Sunday. I want him to be at least "solid."

Everything you're saying sounds completely reasonable to me.  I guess it's just that I'm still a firm believer in Sam, despite the inconsistency.

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

If you want to keep a QB in today's NFL, that's the price you have to pay.  I'm not saying there wouldn't be risk involved in betting heavily on Sam but, yes, I'd be willing to take my chances on him.  Keep in mind that there's also a huge risk in letting a young QB go (after you've suffered through his growing pains) and letting him become a star elsewhere.  

What is the evidence of teams letting go of QBs who go on to be stars elsewhere?

The Chargers and Drew Brees?  It didn't work out so terribly as they did so when Brees was coming off surgery and they had a very good QB in Rivers.

Anyone else?

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54 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Exactly.  The meter is cute but largely useless.  This is binary.

Does Sam Darnold's performance mean we are set at the QB position?

The answer to that question is most definitely no.

Based on the dreck that gets posted on this site, this meter is borderline Picasso... 

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7 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

A number of people have changed their minds after this past game, but that's overblown.  Perhaps @JiF being one of the most glaring, but even he's coming back to center as you see in this thread.  The loudest voices telling you to wake up, because this guy doesn't have it, have been saying so for far longer than this game.  Sure, many hoped he would turn the corner in year 3, but most of those who are talking about a new QB, @Losmeister, @Warfish, @Jetsfan80, @bitonti, @jgb et. al, aren't the least bit surprised or moved by the Bills game, because it wasn't meaningfully worse than a number of his performances.

INdeed, am glad I wasn;lt watching and had not renewed my NFL pass. RedZone is enough for me. Following tweets and such...

it was a WTF? Not again! game for me. really sad to hear him missing open guys right outta the gate. 

left 25+ yds out there his fors 2 throws...    :-(

I've said Sam is a fin young fellow many a time and I think that is true. It just seems like he ain't the truth. And watching LJ tear it up already means he would have been worth the draft capital that we spent on Sam............ as of TODAY.  There would be no question. 

(Never considered Baker or Allen and thought Rosen was at the very least a ******* dick and didnt LIKE him)

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2 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Based on the dreck that gets posted on this site, this meter is borderline Picasso... 

Points for Yiddish, you schmuck!

:-)

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2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

What is the evidence of teams letting go of QBs who go on to be stars elsewhere?

The Chargers and Drew Brees?  It didn't work out so terribly as they did so when Brees was coming off surgery and they had a very good QB in Rivers.

Anyone else?

Eh, the Chargers screwed up pretty bad with Brees, IMO - but I have never been a huge Rivers guy. 

But I think your larger point is correct - I can't really think of any examples. 

What does happen a lot is a guy will become a competent starter elsewhere and maybe go on a playoff run or two, but rarely a star/top player. 

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Apparently a sizable chunk of the fanbase reads everything you just wrote, and despite watching him play last week, still says "sign me up for a $30M+ per for Darnold."

Insanity.  

It's not like Week 1 was the first time we've seen that "version" of Darnold either.  And at his best, he's been Andy Dalton.  

Jets fans are so desperate for a FQB that they're willing to throw objectivity completely out the window.  All it requires to make many happy is that occasionally, you aren't terrible.

You'd think we'd learn from extending Mark Sanchez.

You'd think we'd learn from passing on Bridgewater/Carr because we had Geno Smith.

You'd think we'd learn from passing on Watson/Mahommes because we had Christian Hackenberg.

Nope.  We learned exactly 0.  All because Sam Darnold beat PSU on national tv, and is better than Luke Falk.

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Solid 5, leaning 6.  Until we surround Sam with actual playmakers, it's ridiculous to lay this all at his feet.  I've watched a lot of QBs come and go with this team in my 40 years watching him, this kid has the talent and rhythm to succeed.  He's playing for a sh*tty team and organization right now, and Joe Douglas is playing catch-up.  I'd sign him to a long-term deal now, and start surrounding him with a real set of playmakers.
Darnold is going to succeed in this league... only question is whether it will be with us or someone else.  If he is on Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or a winning organization with real structure right now, we're not having this conversation.  The three year rinse and repeat, throw a guy out of town has to come to an end.  We actually have to build a program now. 
If I were Douglas, I'd look to make a deal for a real playmaker now, much like when we added Braylon Edwards back in the Rex days.  Similar to when we added Santonio Holmes.  We are stunting Sam's development every day we don't add a bonafide number 1.  That's why Buffalo added Stefon Diggs.  The lack of urgency to surround Darnold with playmakers has been infuriating.
Phillyjet, I definitely agree with this sentiment. My point has been that the current state of the Jets is so bad (due to drafting and injuries) that it would have taken near perfect QB play to win the game against the Bills. Obviously, Darnold wasn't close to perfect on Sunday.

Darnold might end up being the wrong guy for the Jets, but right now the Jets don't have the "critical mass" of surrounding talent to succeed consistently against good teams. There is no reason to give up on Sam yet. The games are going to be played (assuming no Covid outbreaks) and hopefully the Jets will get some of their offensive talent back.

If you are hoping for a "Tank for Trevor" have at it - it's a free country. Me, I'd rather hope that the Jets improve and Darnold succeeds.

If JD can get Darnold some healthy support without breaking the bank I would be in favor of that. We certainly have the draft capital to get some talent - although I have no idea who would be a seller at this point in the season. I don't know likely a reasonable deal could be made at this point.

Sent from my SM-G975U using JetNation.com mobile app

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5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

 

Eh, the Chargers screwed up pretty bad with Brees, IMO - but I have never been a huge Rivers guy. 

But I think your larger point is correct - I can't really think of any examples. 

What does happen a lot is a guy will become a competent starter elsewhere and maybe go on a playoff run or two, but rarely a star/top player. 

I think if the Chargers could see the future, they'd do things differently.  But, they made a call with an injured player, and still got a top tier QB for a long time.

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16 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

What is the evidence of teams letting go of QBs who go on to be stars elsewhere?

The Chargers and Drew Brees?  It didn't work out so terribly as they did so when Brees was coming off surgery and they had a very good QB in Rivers.

Anyone else?

Admittedly, I can't think of too many.  Possibly because teams play it very conservatively when it comes to QBs with a lot of potential.  And it's definitely true that plenty of teams hold onto QBs for too long.  But I think that speaks to how critical the position is.  We haven't had a guy with Sam's potential in forever so, personally, I want to give him plenty of time to succeed here.

As far as examples:

-I definitely had Brees in mind. 

-A lot of people tend to forget that Atlanta gave up on Brett Favre after one year (trading him to Green Bay). 

-From what I've read, the early-career Terry Bradshaw wasn't working out at all with the Steelers (though I realize that was a LONG time ago and they also didn't give up on him).   

-Possibly Rich Gannon is in the conversation (though he was a really-late bloomer so I can't fault Minnesota).

-Maybe Alex Smith belongs in the conversation too?  Though Kaepernick took them to the Superbowl so they did have to choose.  But Alex Smith was a very solid QB for a few years too.

 

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11 hours ago, jgb said:

The only reason the needle isn’t buried to the left is due to the sunken cost fallacy.

Oh the irony of this post, with the Tannehill (considered by most to be the worst QB in the NFL while under Gase) "AP Comeback Player of the Year" banner in the same post. So Darnold, who most feel has much more raw talent than Tanny, is hopeless, but Tanny is "Comeback Player of the Year" once he is no longer being coached by Gase.

Irony at it's best.

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1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I think if the Chargers could see the future, they'd do things differently.  But, they made a call with an injured player, and still got a top tier QB for a long time.

I personally think Rivers is a fake "top tier" QB. Lots of good stats, but a lot of bad big game performances and blown leads, with critical mistakes along the way. And the Chargers were seemingly the biggest underachieving team of all time with him at the helm. 

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

I personally think Rivers is a fake "top tier" QB. Lots of good stats, but a lot of bad big game performances and blown leads, with critical mistakes along the way. And the Chargers were seemingly the biggest underachieving team of all time with him at the helm. 

Agreed.  I realize Brees has only won 1 Superbowl but there's a world of difference between 0 and 1 Superbowl titles.  San Diego is absolutely kicking themselves over that one.

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6 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Jets fans are so desperate for a FQB that they're willing to throw objectivity completely out the window.  All it requires to make many happy is that occasionally, you aren't terrible.

You'd think we'd learn from extending Mark Sanchez.

You'd think we'd learn from passing on Bridgewater/Carr because we had Geno Smith.

You'd think we'd learn from passing on Watson/Mahommes because we had Christian Hackenberg.

Nope.  We learned exactly 0.  All because Sam Darnold beat PSU on national tv, and is better than Luke Falk.

It's like all the men on JN are secretly being whipped and beaten and urinated upon by hired women in latex ,

Humiliation. Woman treating man like slave - Buy this stock illustration  and explore similar illustrations at Adobe Stock | Adobe Stock

then go to work and talk football around the water cooler

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2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Admittedly, I can't think of too many.  Possibly because teams play it very conservatively when it comes to QBs with a lot of potential.  And it's definitely true that plenty of teams hold onto QBs for too long.  But I think that speaks to how critical the position is.  We haven't had a guy with Sam's potential in forever so, personally, I want to give him plenty of time to succeed here.

As far as examples:

-I definitely had Brees in mind. 

-A lot of people tend to forget that Atlanta gave up on Brett Favre after one year (trading him to Green Bay). 

-From what I've read, the early-career Terry Bradshaw wasn't working out at all with the Steelers (though I realize that was a LONG time ago and they also didn't give up on him).   

-Possibly Rich Gannon is in the conversation (though he was a really-late bloomer so I can't fault Minnesota).

-Maybe Alex Smith belongs in the conversation too?  Though Kaepernick took them to the Superbowl so they did have to choose.  But Alex Smith was a very solid QB for a few years there.  

 

That the position is so important is exactly why you cannot allow yourself to pass on a QB because you have "potential" on the roster.

If we're in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence (or Fields, or whomever as I don't follow closely), you don't not do that because of your list of excuses for Sam Darnold not performing.  You either have a QB performing, or you look for one.

 

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14 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

You have to give a reason to wait.

Most QBs who start out looking bad, end up looking bad.

Sam Darnold hasn't given a valid reason why we should wait any longer.  He hasn't given a reason why he won't be one of those guys that wasn't good to begin with, and stayed that way.  "Adam Gase sucks" and "the roster sucks" aren't enough reason to pass on improving the QB position after this year, should it not improve significantly on it's own.

This.  Agree 100%.

There seems to be this feeling among some fans that you can't judge Darnold because his OL has been poor and he has had below average weapons.  While I believe both statements are true, that does not mean he shoudl get a free pass.  His stats may be impacted by those around him, but watch the games:

  • Does he see the field well enough to find open receivers when they are there
  • Is he able to consistently hit receivers when they are open
  • Is he able to make appropriate pre-snap reads and set protections
  • When receivers do not get separation, can he give them a chance to make a play, either throwing them open or placing the ball where only the receiver can make a play
  • Can he limit the turovers and bonehead plays
  • Does he have pocket presence to see where the rush is coming from and can he either extend plays or find the hot receiver when needed

Sam needs to be accountable for his play, those elements within his control, regardless of the quality around him.  He cannot be given a 3 year pass.

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3 minutes ago, viffer said:

Oh the irony of this post, with the Tannehill (considered by most to be the worst QB in the NFL while under Gase) "AP Comeback Player of the Year" banner in the same post. So Darnold, who most feel has much more raw talent than Tanny, is hopeless, but Tanny is "Comeback Player of the Year" once he is no longer being coached by Gase.

Irony at it's best.

Pennington had a comeback player award as well...   THEN what happened....

and why was Tannehill MEH before Gase? 

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4 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

That the position is so important is exactly why you cannot allow yourself to pass on a QB because you have "potential" on the roster.

If we're in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence (or Fields, or whomever as I don't follow closely), you don't not do that because of your list of excuses for Sam Darnold not performing.  You either have a QB performing, or you look for one.

I completely agree that if we're in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence that we should do so.  I'm not sure about Fields because I don't follow college football closely enough to say.

But we don't disagree in the slightest on this point.  If we're bad enough to be in a position to draft TL then let's draft him and trade Sam.  But barring something like that, I'll take my chances hoping that Sam can fulfill his potential here.  Even if we have to risk a $30M contract on him.

 

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4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I personally think Rivers is a fake "top tier" QB. Lots of good stats, but a lot of bad big game performances and blown leads, with critical mistakes along the way. And the Chargers were seemingly the biggest underachieving team of all time with him at the helm. 

We can litigate Rivers all you want, but he was a QB that made deep playoff runs with the team.  Not a great example of the proposed disaster of giving up too early on Sam Darnold.

The truth is, Jets fans have been making this proclamation for years, "we always run guys out of town" and never have an answer for who we've actually done that to that's gone on to success.  James Farrior is maybe the closest.

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2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

We can litigate Rivers all you want, but he was a QB that made deep playoff runs with the team.  Not a great example of the proposed disaster of giving up too early on Sam Darnold.

If the Jets gave up on Brees to eventually draft Rivers and watch Brees win a SB and league MVP with another team - I would definitely consider that a "disaster"

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8 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

It's like all the men on JN are secretly being whipped and beaten and urinated upon by hired women in latex ,

Humiliation. Woman treating man like slave - Buy this stock illustration  and explore similar illustrations at Adobe Stock | Adobe Stock

then go to work and talk football around the water cooler

Well, this escalated quickly.

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

If the Jets gave up on Brees to eventually draft Rivers and watch Brees win a SB and league MVP with another team - I would definitely consider that a "disaster"

It wasn't that long ago that Christian Hackenberg was our future.  I'd take the Chargers "disaster" of multiple playoff appearances, runs, and knocking on the door of a Super Bowl over ours.

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14 minutes ago, viffer said:

Oh the irony of this post, with the Tannehill (considered by most to be the worst QB in the NFL while under Gase) "AP Comeback Player of the Year" banner in the same post. So Darnold, who most feel has much more raw talent than Tanny, is hopeless, but Tanny is "Comeback Player of the Year" once he is no longer being coached by Gase.

Irony at it's best.

Tannehill had two 4,000 yard seasons and nearly a third (3,913) in Miami. Then he never played a full season under Gase. Whoever thought he was the “worst QB in the NFL” at any moment in time is not someone whose opinion I especially value. After all it was obvious to some that he was a good QB. Like how I called he would be CBPOTY, receiving huge derision here. Sometimes being right just has to be its own reward. And I fear I am right about Darnold, too.

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