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Sam Darnold Discussion Thread: MERGED

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Just now, TeddEY said:

It wasn't that long ago that Christian Hackenberg was our future.  I'd take the Chargers "disaster" of multiple playoff appearances, runs, and knocking on the door of a Super Bowl over ours.

 

I'd definitely take the Chargers last decade over ours, but perennially underachieving is also heart-wrenching. It's a different kind of pain. 

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36 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don't disagree, but I think giving him a full 3rd year is enough to judge. To me, he has to play better this year than he did last year, or we should probably move on. 

This roster is ass and so I'm not asking him to lead us to a winning record or anything unrealistic, but I think it's fair to expect him to be one of the strengths of the team and he did not look like that last Sunday. I want him to be at least "solid."

Exactly.  He needs to look the part of being one of the top 3 or so players on the field in nearly every game.  No one is asking him to reinvent the QB position.  Just elevate his play and his teammate's play to the best of his abilities.  He doesn't have to win a ton of games or put up Pro Bowl numbers.  He just needs to look the part of a franchise QB.

As bad as our roster is, he was still one of the worst players on the field this past Sunday.  Not acceptable, at all.  We've seen that before out of past QB's in franchise history, even when we had a good roster.

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Tannehill had two 4,000 yard seasons and nearly a third (3,913) in Miami. Then he never played a full season under Gase. Whoever thought he was the “worst QB in the NFL” at any moment in time is not someone whose opinion I especially value. After all it was obvious to some that he was a good QB. Like how I called he would be CBPOTY, receiving huge derision here. Sometimes being right just has to be its own reward. And I fear I am right about Darnold, too.

Don't worry, I'll invite you to my socially distanced "We were right about Sam Darnold" picnic in the spring.  BYOB.

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5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Well, this escalated quickly.

I thought some random craziness night lighten the mood...

 

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2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Don't worry, I'll invite you to my socially distanced "We were right about Sam Darnold" picnic in the spring.  BYOB.

Putting aside the fact that pointing out that Tannehill regressed under Gase somehow justifies any decision this team has made in the last two years is actually ironic.

 

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26 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Admittedly, I can't think of too many.  Possibly because teams play it very conservatively when it comes to QBs with a lot of potential.  And it's definitely true that plenty of teams hold onto QBs for too long.  But I think that speaks to how critical the position is.  We haven't had a guy with Sam's potential in forever so, personally, I want to give him plenty of time to succeed here.

As far as examples:

-I definitely had Brees in mind. 

-A lot of people tend to forget that Atlanta gave up on Brett Favre after one year (trading him to Green Bay). 

-From what I've read, the early-career Terry Bradshaw wasn't working out at all with the Steelers (though I realize that was a LONG time ago and they also didn't give up on him).   

-Possibly Rich Gannon is in the conversation (though he was a really-late bloomer so I can't fault Minnesota).

-Maybe Alex Smith belongs in the conversation too?  Though Kaepernick took them to the Superbowl so they did have to choose.  But Alex Smith was a very solid QB for a few years too.

 

And we need to be a franchise that learns from the bold.  Imagine if the Cardinals hadn't moved on from Rosen right away, and passed on Kyler Murray?  I know its too early to crown Murray, but early returns suggest he looks like a future MVP candidate to me.  And while I like Kingsbury a lot, its not like Murray had pro bowl talent all across the field last season.  He walked into a situation with a bad franchise who had just fired their previous HC after 1 season.  Talk about tumultuous. 

A QB should CLEARLY demonstrate he's the guy by year 3.  Hell, even by year 2 he should be doing that.  The Cardinals didn't even wait for year 2 and its paying dividends.  Meanwhile, Rosen isn't even on an active roster.  

We could very easily end up in a similar situation as the Cardinals if we fire Gase, take a QB early and pair him with a competent HC/OC.  I don't think its necessary to hold onto hope for Darnold if he doesn't clearly show he's "the guy" this year.  Certainly keep him for the 4th year of his deal if you'd like and can't trade him for a solid package of picks, but there's no reason to shy away from taking a new QB with our first pick.

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19 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I completely agree that if we're in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence that we should do so.  I'm not sure about Fields because I don't follow college football closely enough to say.

But we don't disagree in the slightest on this point.  If we're bad enough to be in a position to draft TL then let's draft him and trade Sam.  But barring something like that, I'll take my chances hoping that Sam can fulfill his potential here.  Even if we have to risk a $30M contract on him.

 

 

But that's exactly what we're talking about.  Certainly if Darnold plays well enough to prevent us from picking in the top 10, maybe we give him 2021 and go from there.  But in the much likelier event that we're picking top 5, Darnold sucking will have been a big part of that, and that exact scenario (a top QB being available to us) would be what the relevant part of this debate is about.

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19 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

If the Jets gave up on Brees to eventually draft Rivers and watch Brees win a SB and league MVP with another team - I would definitely consider that a "disaster"

Of course.  But Darnold is not Brees and we don't currently have a Rivers on the roster.  So that one extreme example isn't exactly relevant.

It's important to note that the concerns with Brees was his shoulder, not his performance to date.  Brees had gone to the Pro Bowl and put up a 104.9 QB Rating in 2004.  He was gone after 2005.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And we need to be a franchise that learns from the bold.  Imagine if the Cardinals hadn't moved on from Rosen right away, and passed on Kyler Murray?  I know its too early to crown Murray, but early returns suggest he looks like a future MVP candidate to me.  And while I like Kingsbury a lot, its not like Murray had pro bowl talent all across the field last season.  He walked into a situation with a bad franchise who had just fired their previous HC after 1 season.  Talk about tumultuous. 

A QB should CLEARLY demonstrate he's the guy by year 3.  Hell, even by year 2 he should be doing that.  The Cardinals didn't even wait for year 2 and its paying dividends.  Meanwhile, Rosen isn't even on an active roster.  

We could very easily end up in a similar situation as the Cardinals if we fire Gase, take a QB early and pair him with a competent HC/OC.  I don't think its necessary to hold onto hope for Darnold if he doesn't clearly show he's "the guy" this year.  Certainly keep him for the 4th year of his deal if you'd like and can't trade him for a solid package of picks, but there's no reason to shy away from taking a new QB with our first pick.

If we're in position to draft a high-potential guy (to replace our current high-potential guy) then, by all means, we should consider it.

I think there's clearly something up with Josh Rosen for Arizona to feel that confident in giving up on him so quickly.  Miami, who is starting Fitz, even cut him a year later.  And both teams play in warm weather cities, which you'd think Rosen would be perfect for.  I think Rosen just doesn't fit in today's NFL.  He's not mobile and he's not a big strong kid.  I'm also not sold on his arm strength btw (especially on the run).

I'm with you on Kyler Murray btw.  I think he's going to be a great QB for years to come.  Arizona was bold and I think it's going to pay off big-time. 

And, again, I'm not against the Jets being bold as well but it has to be for the right reason (e.g. a young, high-potential QB).  I'm not even looking to replace him at all btw (Trevor Lawrence excepted).  Personally I feel like he's shown a lot of potential so far and I think he's only going to continue to improve as the team around him does.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course.  But Darnold is not Brees and we don't currently have a Rivers on the roster.  So that one extreme example isn't exactly relevant.

I never mean to imply that it was relevant to Darnold. 

What happened with Tannehill is more likely to happen with Darnold, IMO. 

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If (for WHATEVER reason) the QB DJ likes is there for us we take him.  The end.  

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It was a 4-5 before the season, but its a 3 and falling fast right now.

Not seeing any improvement, and starting to see best case scenarios tossed around like "If the entire team is loaded he can be mediocre", that's not going to cut it. 

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

I never mean to imply that it was relevant to Darnold. 

What happened with Tannehill is more likely to happen with Darnold, IMO. 

In his 3rd season in the league, Ryan Tannehill put up a 92.1 QB Rating, with 4,000+ yards and a 27/12 TD:INT ratio.

We'd kill for that kind of season out of Darnold.

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3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If we're in position to draft a high-potential guy (to replace our current high-potential guy) then, by all means, we should consider it.

I think there's clearly something up with Josh Rosen for Arizona to feel that confident in giving up on him so quickly.  Miami, who is starting Fitz, even cut him a year later.  And both teams play in warm weather cities, which you'd think Rosen would be perfect for.  I think Rosen just doesn't fit in today's NFL.  He's not mobile and he's not a big strong kid.  I'm also not sold on his arm strength btw (especially on the run).

I'm with you on Kyler Murray btw.  I think he's going to be a great QB for years to come.  Arizona was bold and I think it's going to pay off big-time. 

And, again, I'm not against the Jets being bold as well but it has to be for the right reason (e.g. a young, high-potential QB).  I'm not even looking to replace him at all btw (Trevor Lawrence excepted).  Personally I feel like he's shown a lot of potential so far and I think he's only going to continue to improve as the team around him does.

Rosen and Hackenberg belong in the same sentence when discussing obvious QB busts 

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

But that's exactly what we're talking about.  Certainly if Darnold plays well enough to prevent us from picking in the top 10, maybe we give him 2021 and go from there.  But in the much likelier event that we're picking top 5, Darnold sucking will have been a big part of that, and that exact scenario (a top QB being available to us) would be what the relevant part of this debate is about.

I'd absolutely be on-board with at least considering something like that should we end up picking top 5.  (I just don't think that's going to happen).

Btw, I still think we could still get a lot back for Sam if we were to trade him (which, again, I don't want to).

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I never mean to imply that it was relevant to Darnold. 

What happened with Tannehill is more likely to happen with Darnold, IMO. 

Except Tannehill had three 4,000 yard seasons (ok one of those was 3,913) under his belt when Gase the Destroyer rolled into town. You must see something I can’t to compare the two.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In his 3rd season in the league, Ryan Tannehill put up a 92.1 QB Rating, with 4,000+ yards and a 27/12 TD:INT ratio.

We'd kill for that kind of season out of Darnold.

Agreed, that's why I keep saying this year is make or break for Darnold

Now - it is also important to point out that Tannehill was throwing to Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace that year. It would be nice if we had a WR anywhere near as good as Landry on the roster. 

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Agreed, that's why I keep saying this year is make or break for Darnold

Now - it is also important to point out that Tannehill was throwing to Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace that year. It would be nice if we had a WR anywhere near as good as Landry on the roster. 

Right, but we're baking that into our expectation of Darnold.  I'd settle for something like an 87 QB Rtg, 3,500 yards, 24 TD/16 INT.  Something like that. 

He posted a 75 QB Rating and looked terrible doing it in Week 1.  Strike 1.  15 more opportunities to go to do better.

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47 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

A number of people have changed their minds after this past game, but that's overblown.  Perhaps @JiF being one of the most glaring, but even he's coming back to center as you see in this thread.  The loudest voices telling you to wake up, because this guy doesn't have it, have been saying so for far longer than this game.  Sure, many hoped he would turn the corner in year 3, but most of those who are talking about a new QB, @Losmeister, @Warfish, @Jetsfan80, @bitonti, @jgb et. al, aren't the least bit surprised or moved by the Bills game, because it wasn't meaningfully worse than a number of his performances.

As it was playing out, yes, I was definitely ready to toss him aside.  A day to sit on it, watch the game again, see some of the mistakes more closely...I'm not pushing him off the ledge because of a poor performance to start the year.  Call it excuses but 7 new starters on offense, no offseason, on the road in tough conditions vs. the best pass D in the league - it's enough for me to at least see how he responds.  Last year he looked broken and he bounced back to a top 10 QB performance and a 6-2 record to finish the year behind arguably the worst OL I've ever seen with pathetic weaponz.   I dont think it's fair to toss that progression aside because of a bad game to start a very nonstandard year.    I'd say I'm in the 4 +/- a category in either direction on this meter thingy.  Sunday was highly concerning, there is no sugar coating it.

As I've said in other threads, his missed throws that he typically makes routinely.  I think that's timing/trust/first live bullets. I expect that to get better.  The rookie type decision making and being trigger shy are very concerning because they can be the back breaking difference in a game you're not playing Josh Allen.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right, but we're baking that into our expectation of Darnold.  I'd settle for something like an 87 QB Rtg, 3,500 yards, 24 TD/16 INT.  Something like that. 

 

Are we? It doesn't sound like it to me. 

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4 minutes ago, JiF said:

As it was playing out, yes, I was definitely ready to toss him aside.  A day to sit on it, watch the game again, see some of the mistakes more closely...I'm not pushing him off the ledge because of a poor performance to start the year.  Call it excuses but 7 new starters on offense, no offseason, on the road in tough conditions vs. the best pass D in the league - it's enough for me to at least see how he responds.  Last year he looked broken and he bounced back to a top 10 QB performance and a 6-2 record to finish the year behind arguably the worst OL I've ever seen with pathetic weaponz.   I dont think it's fair to toss that progression aside because of a bad game to start a very nonstandard year.    I'd say I'm in the 4 +/- a category in either direction on this meter thingy.  Sunday was highly concerning, there is no sugar coating it.

As I've said in other threads, his missed throws that he typically makes routinely.  I think that's timing/trust/first live bullets. I expect that to get better.  The rookie type decision making and being trigger shy are very concerning because they can be the back breaking difference in a game you're not playing Josh Allen.

 

 

I don't blame you.  I'm just saying that many people who've spoken against him have been doing so for some time.  You're someone who's newer to the party.

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1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I don't blame you.  I'm just saying that many people who've spoken against him have been doing so for some time.  You're someone who's newer to the party.

For sure, I was highly confident in Sam being the real deal.  That idea has been put on pause.

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18 minutes ago, Icer said:

It was a 4-5 before the season, but its a 3 and falling fast right now.

Not seeing any improvement, and starting to see best case scenarios tossed around like "If the entire team is loaded he can be mediocre", that's not going to cut it. 

Fwiw, I'm still of the opinion that he has the potential to be a great QB, who can win us a Superbowl.  That's just my opinion, though, and I've been wrong plenty of times before.  But in my gut, I don't feel like we've given him a good enough look here.  He's had very little to work with so far (including, imo, a bad HC).

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2 hours ago, Y3k said:

Same place as I was a month ago. Anything else is irrational sensationalism and an emotional reaction to a sh*tty week 1 performance. 

Sam Darnold improved in every measurable way from year 1 to year 2. Showed long stretches of elite play in both of his first two years. Had a winning record despite the worst roster in the NFL.

The 2020 season hasn't happened yet. Letting 1 bad game, against the #1 passing D in the NFL that will embarrass every QB they play in buffalo this year , affect your outlook is asinine. 

You're just a little too reasonable for this Forum.

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Probably am watching this week...  hoping it's worth a watch...

 

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1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

So, based on everything you've seen, you'd give him 30M plus?

 

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I would

 

I'm a Darnold fan but no way I make that decision yet.  I would however exercise that 5th year option at this point.  I've seen enough to know I want to see more.  It's essentially a lease with an option to buy.  We have this year (Sam's 3rd) and next (4th) to make the assessment before he goes into Year 5.  If he doesn't look any better than mediocre I think the Jets Draft a QB in Spring 2022, but not necessarily in this next Draft unless someone falls to them.

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25 minutes ago, jgb said:

Except Tannehill had three 4,000 yard seasons (ok one of those was 3,913) under his belt when Gase the Destroyer rolled into town. You must see something I can’t to compare the two.

Hmmm:

Ryan Tannehill 2012 - 48.4 QBR

Ryan Tannehill 2013 - 49.3 QBR

Sam Darnold 2018 - 45.5 QBR

Sam Darnold 2019 - 43.5 QBR

Also, since you wanted to cherry pick yards, Sam actually passed for slightly more yards/game through two years:

Ryan Tannehill 2012 - 205.9 yards/game

Ryan Tannehill 2013 - 244.6 yards/game

Sam Darnold 2018 - 220.4 yards/game

Sam Darnold 2019 - 232.6 yards/game 

I know you love Tannehill, but through two years of play, Darnold seems pretty comparable to me, friend. 

Now let's get Sam a WR as good as Jarvis Landry. 

 

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2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I'm a Darnold fan but no way I make that decision yet.  I would however exercise that 5th year option at this point.  I've seen enough to know I want to see more.  It's essentially a lease with an option to buy.  We have this year (Sam's 3rd) and next (4th) to make the assessment before he goes into Year 5.  If he doesn't look any better than mediocre I think the Jets Draft a QB in Spring 2022, but not necessarily in this next Draft unless someone falls to them.

That would be my approach too.  I thought his question was more theoretical like "if faced with losing him after this year, would you sign him long-term now?"

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53 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I completely agree that if we're in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence that we should do so.  I'm not sure about Fields because I don't follow college football closely enough to say.

But we don't disagree in the slightest on this point.  If we're bad enough to be in a position to draft TL then let's draft him and trade Sam.  But barring something like that, I'll take my chances hoping that Sam can fulfill his potential here.  Even if we have to risk a $30M contract on him.

 

If we are in a position to draft Lawrence, it will be an easy decision because to be in the top 3 means that the season was truly an epic disaster.  In all likelihood, we will be in the teens again, and this conversation will be moot.

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1 hour ago, Jethead said:

I was a 3 on Monday because I was so disappointed in Sunday's game. In reality we will be in 4 mode all year. He's 23 and the upside is too great to give up now. 

Agree on the "too early to give up" part.

And, I'd suggest that it isn't a correct approach to analysis if you think A. The roster is bad and B. The HC/offensive coaching is bad that you can determine if C. the QB is bad.  The NFL has some pretty notable examples of guys that meandered around and didn't have the light bulb go on for them until they were a little older and in a better system with good personnel.

2089655468_ScreenShot2020-09-17at10_14_50AM.png.3f03b24251c078c0b6bfe5bc0360c19e.png

 

1025633901_ScreenShot2020-09-17at10_14_26AM.thumb.png.a585787f4aa5b405a3ec110b36786b93.png

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4 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

If we are in a position to draft Lawrence, it will be an easy decision because to be in the top 3 means that the season was truly an epic disaster.  In all likelihood, we will be in the teens again, and this conversation will be moot.

Agreed.  Though I think we'll have to be #1 overall (rather than "top 3") to be in a position to draft TL.  Obviously we could trade up for him but that would cost us a ton.  Though if Sam looks terrible the next 15 games (I don't think he will) then that's something we'd have to consider.

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27 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Are we? It doesn't sound like it to me. 

It sure sounds like many Jets fans are.  Somehow, Darnold's Week 1 performance, as alarming as it was, has left many Jets fans still a 5 or 6 on the Darnold meter when they should be 1-3.  We have 2 seasons + 1 game of data on Darnold and its overall horrifying, independent of the awful circumstances surrounding him. 

We should expect better.  A 75 QB Rating should not be good enough, even if we're playing the 2000 Ravens, have Rich Kotite as the HC and 3 blind people starting at WR.

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14 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I'm a Darnold fan but no way I make that decision yet.  I would however exercise that 5th year option at this point.  I've seen enough to know I want to see more.  

We have until May 3, 2021 to make that decision.  There's absolutely no reason to exercise that option until after the 2020 season.   

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