Sam Darnold is a bust

[Paradis]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Depends on your definition of a bust.  If a bust is someone who fails to be a franchise QB, then yeah, he was a flawed prospect with plenty of things that could prevent him from being a franchise guy, even if he'd been placed in a great situation.

If Andy Reid had drafted him, he'd have been looking to replace him within 2 seasons.  Just like he did with Alex Smith.

ftr; that was play on words/paradox statement i made in jest. Seem to miss with everyone tho

but taken literally, i disagree. I think there's a version where Sam was successful. Was likely always going to Favre-like bonehead INTs and such, but an offense like PIT/Arians that leans on the run, heavy downfield play action - that could've worked IMO

This mess i'm seeing now? Putrid. On all fronts. 

[TuscanyTile2]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How about the play where he got tackled out of bounds while Crowder was open?

I don't have these clips handy, but I believe one of the beat writers (Hughes?) tweeted out a few plays where he was missing wide open guys.  He's also had plays where other receivers open and threw into double coverage instead in Sanchez-like fashion.  People here were pointing those out yesterday.

Look, I wanted to believe in the kid too.  At some point you have to lift up your play and that of your teammates to the best of your abilities.  Darnold has done that a few times in his career to date, but the times where he's basically sh*t himself on the field is about a 50  % clip at this point, and another 30 % of  his starts were just "meh".  He has 5 games in his career where he had a QB Rating below 50.  That's horrific. 

At some point you have to recognize that his negatives far outweigh the positives, and just move on.  He's not the guy, and he likely won't BE the guy for any franchise.  

Clearly Sam has potential (e.g. his TD pass yesterday).  Otoh, he's saddled with a disaster of a team and HC/OC.  I think the mistakes he's making are from being overwhelmed by the crappy circumstances he's had to deal with.  If put into a stable organization with a good HC/OC and teammates, I believe he could flourish.  I hate the thought of giving up on him too early and letting him flourish elsewhere (especially because our moron owners got conned by Adam Gase).

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What are his "legit NFL skills" exactly?  I'm still waiting for someone to point those out.  

The backyard ball people like to throw out there isn't exactly sustainable.

Please go back to pleasuring yourself over Trevor Lawrence throwing to wide open receivers from perfectly clean pockets and thinking that's what he'll see here.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Clearly Sam has potential (e.g. his TD pass yesterday).  Otoh, he's saddled with a disaster of a team and HC/OC.  I think the mistakes he's making are from being overwhelmed by the crappy circumstances he's had to deal with.  If put into a stable organization with a good HC/OC and teammates, I believe he could flourish.  I hate the thought of giving up on him too early and letting him flourish elsewhere (especially because our moron owners got conned by Adam Gase).

This response tells me you didn't really read anything I wrote.  He has serious problems independent of the Jets, and those problems were present in his USC days.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Please go back to pleasuring yourself over Trevor Lawrence throwing to wide open receivers from perfectly clean pockets and thinking that's what he'll see here.

I'm not sold on Lawrence or Fields.  I'm asking you to point out Darnolds's NFL skillset, because no one has to date.  Just a pile of excuses to suggest he'd maybe be good in great circumstances.

Darnold was in a great situation at USC and still demonstrated serious flaws.

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How about the play where he got tackled out of bounds while Crowder was open?

I don't have these clips handy, but I believe one of the beat writers (Hughes?) tweeted out a few plays where he was missing wide open guys.  He's also had plays where other receivers open and threw into double coverage instead in Sanchez-like fashion.  People here were pointing those out yesterday.

Look, I wanted to believe in the kid too.  At some point you have to lift up your play and that of your teammates to the best of your abilities.  Darnold has done that a few times in his career to date, but the times where he's basically sh*t himself on the field is about a 50  % clip at this point, and another 30 % of  his starts were just "meh".  He has 5 games in his career where he had a QB Rating below 50.  That's horrific. 

At some point you have to recognize that his negatives far outweigh the positives, and just move on.  He's not the guy, and he likely won't BE the guy for any franchise.  

There’s enough of a sample to see he’s not a star.  At the same time, i can’t think of a qb who consistently had a bottom five OL and wrs and became a decent qb on that team.  Even good qbs need help.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What are his "legit NFL skills" exactly?  I'm still waiting for someone to point those out.  

The backyard ball people like to throw out there isn't exactly sustainable.

People see him make the occasional great Houdini play (escape the rush, buy time, roll out, profit) and compare him to guys like Big Ben, Wilson, etc. - and then point out that a lot of elite QBs make plays like that. But what they miss is that those guys also consistently (and repeatedly) make good decisions/throws from the pocket. They don't just show flashes of brilliance. They are consistently good to very good and then top things off with those miraculous plays when they need them. 

[kdels62]

13 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Show me the standard plays he's leaving on the field. I can think of 2 plays this season he should have made but didn't. I can think of a lot more where there's just nothing for him to do than to try and improvise and hope some sh*t like this breaks out. 

Show me all the separation his receivers have that he's missing out on.  I don't believe it's there.

I mean off the top of my head.

Int 2 was a bad read and if he’d put the ball deeper into the corner he still would’ve hit an open Cager for a touchdown.

First quarter against the Bills he just missed Perriman twice on an out and crossing pattern. 

Int 1 yesterday was bad and I’d want Sam to recognize that he’s throwing to a rookie and make a better throw.

Int 3 was so bad that Gase didn’t have any clue what Sam wanted to do with that throw. 

Int against Buffalo was a bad decision but also a bad throw since a better throw would’ve been able to get Crowder open behind the LB. 

Against Indy, he had Herndon open for a first down and threw it behind him and Herndon tried to make a one-handed catch but missed and everyone got mad at Herndon.

Thats just off the top of my head.

[jgb]

15 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Same exact way I felt.  All of those guys were either bad or pretenders.

I roll my eyes when I see people comparing Sam to Mark Sanchez.  

It's looking more and more that Mark Sanchez should be the one insulted by that comparison.

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm not sold on Lawrence or Fields.  I'm asking you to point out Darnolds's NFL skillset, because no one has to date.  Just a pile of excuses to suggest he'd maybe be good in great circumstances.

Darnold was in a great situation at USC and still demonstrated serious flaws.

He can make all the throws and then some. He can throw guys open when given the opportunity. He can make plays out of nothing. 

 

 

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

People see him make the occasional great Houdini play (escape the rush, buy time, roll out, profit) and compare him to guys like Big Ben, Wilson, etc. - and then point out that a lot of elite QBs make plays like that. But what they miss is that those guys also consistently (and repeatedly) make good decisions/throws from the pocket. They don't just show flashes of brilliance. They are consistently good to very good and then top things off with those miraculous plays when they need them. 

On the one hand, i think it’s fair to say that darnold will not develop into a top 10 qb.   On the other, I’m having a hard time naming a qb who always had a bottom 5 OL, wrs and rbs and became good.  

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Please go back to pleasuring yourself over Trevor Lawrence throwing to wide open receivers from perfectly clean pockets and thinking that's what he'll see here.

But we can't evaluate Darnold until he has wide open receivers and clean pockets, right?

Good Players Play Good: the most accurate evaluation tool on Earth. Patent pending.

[jgb]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

He can make all the throws and then some. He can throw guys open when given the opportunity. He can make plays out of nothing. 

 

 

But too often he also makes nothing out of something.

[ZachEY]

7 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

People see him make the occasional great Houdini play (escape the rush, buy time, roll out, profit) and compare him to guys like Big Ben, Wilson, etc. - and then point out that a lot of elite QBs make plays like that. But what they miss is that those guys also consistently (and repeatedly) make good decisions/throws from the pocket. They don't just show flashes of brilliance. They are consistently good to very good and then top things off with those miraculous plays when they need them. 

There's a reason none of the Harlem Globetrotters can play in the NBA.

[TuscanyTile2]

38 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

FFS it was a nice play but it wasn't something to lose your sh*t over.  He demonstrated very good escape-ability there, and after buying himself that kind of time, the throw ended up being a fairly easy one.

The flashy plays are not what make a QB anyways.  It's the seemingly boring, inside-the-pocket precision passing that makes a QB.  Making a crazy throw off a back foot or backyard style doesn't impress me if you can't do the little things, consistently, that make a franchise QB.  Darnold has time and again missed open receivers, even when given tons of time, and made horrid decisions.  That stuff doesn't provide any hope that he'll be a successful starting QB in this league, anywhere.

If Mahomes made this play we would surely NOT be talking about it for months, because he seems to make ridiculous plays all the time, ALONG WITH the consistent stuff that makes him great.

Agree that it's critical to make the "regular plays" (make the right read, call the right protection, make the solid throw, etc).  But your last paragraph about Mahomes just doesn't resonant with me.  Mahomes has a great HC, among the best weapons in the NFL, and he sat and learned his first year.  I really think it's possible Mahomes would've struggled if put in the situation Sam was dropped into.  

FTR, I think Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL.

[#27TheDominator]

48 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You watch.  He'll throw for 225 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs and a solid 20-25 % of the board is gonna be like "SEE, SEE, HE'S THE GUY JUST GOTTA GET RID OF GASE"

This is what I am thinking.  I am far from bullish on Darnold, but I am nowhere near as bearish as we've become.  I am sort of in limbo because they hired a sh*tty coach that I expected to fail.  None of this is coming as a surprise to me.  I am not investing the entire future in Darnold, but there is still hope IMO. I fully expected the sh*tshow yesterday and I expect normal mediocre on Thursday.

[jgb]

20 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

If the shoe fits . 

I also used to think that predicting something and rooting for it were the same thing. Then I hit puberty.

[56mehl56]

Just now, jgb said:

When I was 10 years old, I also thought that predicting something and rooting for it were the same thing.

So what have you learned in 2 years ?

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

On the one hand, i think it’s fair to say that darnold will not develop into a top 10 qb.   On the other, I’m having a hard time naming a qb who always had a bottom 5 OL, wrs and rbs and became good.  

The situation is beyond awful and the organization should be ashamed of its attempt to build a winning team around him. I could see him putting it all together and becoming a good starter down the road, but I am pretty sure that is not going to happen here. 

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

But we can't evaluate Darnold until he has wide open receivers and clean pockets, right?

Good Players Play Good: the most accurate evaluation tool on Earth. Patent pending.

There's a world of difference between the offense darnold plays in and the defenses he's facing and the offense lawrence plays in and the defense he faces. It's not either/or.

I don't expect to ever see NFL QB's get the pocket/open players they have in college.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

The situation is beyond awful and the organization should be ashamed of its attempt to build a winning team around him. I could see him putting it all together and becoming a good starter down the road, but I am pretty sure that is not going to happen here. 

It’s a never ending cycle of the gm, hc and qb never being in synch.  A guy like darnold needed more help early on and a coach and a system like allen has in buffalo.  

Hopefully douglas has a plan for the next qb, because we are drafting one in round 1 next April.  It’s hard to see the jets winning more than 3 games with this team and this schedule and even 3 is being generous.  If fields is worth it, we’re getting one or the other, and again, hopefully douglas understands how to match a qb with a hc and also understands you don’t draft a qb and then use your next few picks on inside linebackers and safeties.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

This is what I am thinking.  I am far from bullish on Darnold, but I am nowhere near as bearish as we've become.  I am sort of in limbo because they hired a sh*tty coach that I expected to fail.  None of this is coming as a surprise to me.  I am not investing the entire future in Darnold, but there is still hope IMO. I fully expected the sh*tshow yesterday and I expect normal mediocre on Thursday.

The problem is it's really hard to half invest in a FQB. It's a zero sum game. Every bit of resource--time, money, reps, focus, hope--you put into one guy is not available to put into finding the next. Favoring the sunken cost over the opportunity cost is a classic error in all fields. IMHO we are past that point. Time to turn the page and go forward 100%.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

So what have you learned in 2 years ?

That Sam sucks.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

The problem is it's really hard to half invest in a FQB. It's a zero sum game. Every bit of resource--time, money, reps, focus, hope--you put into one guy is not available to put into finding the next. Favoring the sunken cost over the opportunity cost is a classic error in all fields. IMHO we are past that point. Time to turn the page and go forward 100%.

Very true and when we view this period in ignominious jets history we’ll all rewrite it by concluding that when douglas came on board he was going to get a new qb, one he drafted, because that’s what new gms do.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

There's a world of difference between the offense darnold plays in and the defenses he's facing and the offense lawrence plays in and the defense he faces. It's not either/or.

I don't expect to ever see NFL QB's get the pocket/open players they have in college.

And yet GMs are paid to extrapolate college performance to professional performance. How do they make these evaluations?! Magic!

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

He can make all the throws and then some. He can throw guys open when given the opportunity. He can make plays out of nothing. 

Thank you.  At least someone was able to provide a list.

[jgb]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

Very true and when we view this period in ignominious jets history we’ll all rewrite it by concluding that when douglas came on board he was going to get a new qb, one he drafted, because that’s what new gms do.

Of course. And then everyone will claim it was obvious the whole time. 

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Thank you.  At least someone was able to provide a list.

I just want to see him get an opportunity with a better roster and coach here because I see a lot of potential for a legit NFL QB in him. I don't want to see him balling on another team for the next decade while we keep drafting QB's and not building around them.

It doesn't matter if you've got a Ferrari engine if the tires are flat and there's no steering wheel.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I just want to see him get an opportunity with a better roster and coach here because I see a lot of potential for a legit NFL QB in him. I don't want to see him balling on another team for the next decade while we keep drafting QB's and not building around them.

It doesn't matter if you've got a Ferrari engine if the tires are flat and there's no steering wheel.

 

Well we're not turning the roster completely around by 2021, so giving him next season just doesn't make much sense.  Especially if we end up picking in the top 3.  

Have to just move on from the sunken cost.  If he works out elsewhere, you tip your cap to him.  But I think even at his best, he'll still only be about average.  Never anywhere close to elite.  That shouldn't even be a consideration when it comes to our decision-making at QB.

[Wonderboy]

46 minutes ago, jgb said:

Just needling you a bit, we cool bro. You stood in there and are taking your licks like a man. Unlike Professor Statistics.

My apologies to all who I blasted. I was swept away with us finally getting what I thought would be a franchise QB and overlooked the reality of this bum’s temperament. So I hope none of you took iit personally. At this point I don’t even care if he puts up all pro numbers. He will be the next one shown the exit door (see Jamal) by JD.  Since I’ve never done any serious time or committed any serious crimes, I plead a pardon by the board. 

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

The problem is it's really hard to half invest in a FQB. It's a zero sum game. Every bit of resource--time, money, reps, focus, hope--you put into one guy is not available to put into finding the next. Favoring the sunken cost over the opportunity cost is a classic error in all fields. IMHO we are past that point. Time to turn the page and go forward 100%.

I get what you are saying and it is rational, but I disagree wholeheartedly.  You invest everything 100% in the position.  I don't favor the sunken cost.  I just think you roll with what you've got and you make every attempt to upgrade, no matter what.  I look at Darnold as a poor man's Alex Smith.  I'd like to think of us as the Chiefs, looking to upgrade him with Mahomes (aka the best player in football).  Unfortunately, we are the 49ers, trying to dig out from picking him with a high choice. 

We have plenty of draft capital to get a viable QB over the next two years.  For years I heard that the Jets could not get a QB because they never picked at the top of the draft, well the top QBs in the NFL were selected #32, #10, #12.  Wilson went in the 3rd, Brady, Cousins, Brees were free agents.  We have the capability of selecting our QB of the future without tossing Darnold yet.   Think of the Chargers with Brees/Rivers or the Chiefs with Smith/Mahomes.  That is what you strive for.  Hell, even the Browns with Taylor/Mayfield.  Pick your overused old saw.  I'm not counting my chickens and rolling with Darnold.  I'm also not throwing the baby (Darnold) out with the bathwater (Gase).  Keep trying to develop Darnold and pick the next guy.  The goals are not mutually exclusive.

For the record, the only way this kind of thing can backfire is if it upsets your established guy.  Rodgers mad about Love.  Roethlisberger dissing Mason Rudolph.  Is that even an option here?  If is is do we care?  I sure as sh*t don't.

[ryu79]

While the QB position is most important because it impacts every play it's also highly dependent on all it's skill players. 

Darnold has clearly been trained/raised to point with his thumb rather than the finger when it comes to blame and we just don't know if some of these picks and errant throws have to do with where he expects people to be vs. where they end up.

And it's not just that we have no run game at all, that the level of talent is low (all wr starters out) implying low separation, that he was playing the second half yesterday with neither of his tackles, but that on top of everything each week there are new players in there. Cager got activated a few days ago. 

In truth, we played the best defense in the league (Statistically) toe to toe in the first half yesterday with awful talent at skill positions, with the exception of the end zone td (on which, the CB made a tremendous play to recover to lining up wrong at the snap). This was the point Trent Green made at halftime - that Sam had actually moved the ball well all things considered. 

In the second half, without Becton, we simply couldn't protect sufficiently for patterns to develop and Sam had to take risks to try and get completions. They didn't pay off, but I wonder if a lot of QBs in the same situation, might also play below their ability under similar circumstances (I watch other teams play and am amazed to see QBs miss throws sometimes too). 

In the end, the objective takeaway from the game was disaster and Sam scored more for the opponent than us. There is just a lot going on and these aren't the conditions upon which I'd make the decision on him.

There is a lot of season left and I don't know when it became the norm to make 'career defining' evals on players on a weekly basis. If we get to week 16 and we have the top pick in the draft, Sam will have earned the boot. I feel really alone in the desire to see how we will fair if we ever get our skill position talent healthy this season and our tackles back , but I get it, it's tough being a fan of this team.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I get what you are saying and it is rational, but I disagree wholeheartedly.  You invest everything 100% in the position.  I don't favor the sunken cost.  I just think you roll with what you've got and you make every attempt to upgrade, no matter what.  I look at Darnold as a poor man's Alex Smith.  I'd like to think of us as the Chiefs, looking to upgrade him with Mahomes (aka the best player in football).  Unfortunately, we are the 49ers, trying to dig out from picking him with a high choice. 

We have plenty of draft capital to get a viable QB over the next two years.  For years I heard that the Jets could not get a QB because they never picked at the top of the draft, well the top QBs in the NFL were selected #32, #10, #12.  Wilson went in the 3rd, Brady, Cousins, Brees were free agents.  We have the capability of selecting our QB of the future without tossing Darnold yet.   Think of the Chargers with Brees/Rivers or the Chiefs with Smith/Mahomes.  That is what you strive for.  Hell, even the Browns with Taylor/Mayfield.  Pick your overused old saw.  I'm not counting my chickens and rolling with Darnold.  I'm also not throwing the baby (Darnold) out with the bathwater (Gase).  Keep trying to develop Darnold and pick the next guy.  The goals are not mutually exclusive.

For the record, the only way this kind of thing can backfire is if it upsets your established guy.  Rodgers mad about Love.  Roethlisberger dissing Mason Rudolph.  Is that even an option here?  If is is do we care?  I sure as sh*t don't.

You know what would be a baller move? JD passes on a QB with the Jets' (almost-certainly top 3) pick. And then uses SEA's pick to take a lesser touted QB.

That would take serious cojones.

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

My apologies to all who I blasted. I was swept away with us finally getting what I thought would be a franchise QB and overlooked the reality of this bum’s temperament. So I hope none of you took iit personally. At this point I don’t even care if he puts up all pro numbers. He will be the next one shown the exit door (see Jamal) by JD.  Since I’ve never done any serious time or committed any serious crimes, I plead a pardon by the board. 

A helpful thought exercise when deciding how vocally to fight for your position is ask yourself "if I get one more data point that runs contrary to my position, will I pull a 180 and completely flip my opinion overnight?"  

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Well we're not turning the roster completely around by 2021, so giving him next season just doesn't make much sense.  Especially if we end up picking in the top 3.  

Have to just move on from the sunken cost.  If he works out elsewhere, you tip your cap to him.  But I think even at his best, he'll still only be about average.  Never anywhere close to elite.  That shouldn't even be a consideration when it comes to our decision-making at QB.

Time is running out for sure. New coaching staff and a draft/off-season with a focus on upgrading the offensive weapons could make a big difference. Draft jamarr and a center in the first, sign juju, and run a sane offense. Let's see how that goes.