The article before Gase called a Jet play that showed us our hellacious future

[SouthernJet]

Unreal how everything happened just like that said. Still short of sticks, players play well when they leave Gase who is a inept 'position coach AT BEST' and that being kind

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837130-stats-dont-lie-adam-gase-is-the-wrong-coach-for-sam-darnold-and-the-jets

Stats Don't Lie: Adam Gase Is the Wrong Coach for Sam Darnold and the Jets

MIKE TANIERMAY 23, 2019

 

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

It's 3rd-and-10. Is your quarterback throwing a five-yard pass? And are you happy about it?

If so, there's a chance you may be Adam Gase.

Gase has been making a lot of news in recent weeks, but let's set aside the new Jets head coach's penchant for Shakespearean boardroom power plays or the passive-aggressive negging of Le'Veon Bell, which already appears to be underway. Gase's primary objective is to develop Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl-caliber franchise quarterback. If he does that, no one will care about what happened this offseason. If he doesn't, being Mr. Congeniality to his co-workers won't save him in the long run.

A deep dive into Gase's record in three seasons as the Dolphins head coach and offensive architect revealed he may not be the right coach to develop Darnold—or any young quarterback.

The problem is easy to summarize: Gase's system threatens to choke out Darnold's potential by ordering him to throw too many too-short passes.

   

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Gaming the ratings

It doesn't take a degree in mathematics to figure out just how mediocre the Dolphins offense was in three years under Gase.

The Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards and 17th in points during their 2016 wild-card season. They then dipped to 25th in yards and 28th in points in 2017 (when Jay Cutler was coaxed out of the broadcast booth to replace the injured Ryan Tannehill) and 31st and 26th last year (when Brock Osweiler replaced the injured Tannehill for a handful of midseason games).

But while the Dolphins' seasonwide offensive totals were generally bad, the individual passing results of Miami quarterbacks were usually acceptable. Tannehill ranked 12th in the NFL in passer rating (93.5) in 2016 and 20th (92.7) last year; Cutler ranked 23rd (80.8) in 2017.

Those figures aren't great, but they don't point to passing efficiency as a major problem for Gase's offenses. Tannehill had a higher passer rating last year than Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum and others; his rating was 15.1 points higher than Darnold's rating of 77.6.

If you have read this far into a statistical article about Adam Gase, you don't need to be told passer rating is an outdated, poorly designed measure of quarterback performance. Tannehill drops all the way to 32nd in the NFL in 2018, between Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen, when we switch to ESPN's QBR. Tannehill also drops to 32nd last year when we use Football Outsiders' DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. Even when Tannehill led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, he ranked 25th in DVOA and 24th in QBR.

 

The discrepancy between advanced metrics like DVOA and QBR and basic stats is telling. Something made the raw passing stats for Dolphins quarterbacks look half decent for the last three years, even when those quarterbacks were playing poorly and limiting the offense.

That "something" was Gase's love of the short pass in long-yardage situations.

   

2nd-and-wrong, 3rd-and-wrong

Let's use the Football Outsiders premium database to drill deeper into Gase's play-calling tendencies. Specifically, we'll focus on two very important game situations: 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long. "Long" means seven-plus yards in both situations:

• 2016: The Dolphins offense ranked 26th on 2nd-and-long and 14th on 3rd-and-long.
• 2017: The Dolphins offense ranked 32nd in 2nd-and-long and 26th on 3rd-and-long.
• 2018: The Dolphins offense ranked 31st on 2nd-and-long and 28th on 3rd-and-long.

Three years, only one ranking (barely) above league average in long-yardage situations, the rest well below average and an overall downward trend. That's not a good look for Gase's situational play calling.

 

If you were looking for a quarterback to complete a good percentage of his third-down throws without achieving the first-down payoff most teams desire, you couldn't have done much better in recent years than Ryan Tannehill.Darron Cummings/Associated Press/Associated Press

Those rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which assigns a weight to every single play executed in a given situation, based on how much (or little) the result of that play increases (or decreases) a team's chance of winning.

One thing DVOA excels at is removing the fluff from raw statistics. The system rewards, say, two-yard runs on 3rd-and-1 but provides only tiny rewards for 10-yard passes on 3rd-and-15. Passer rating and final stat totals can be fooled by dump-offs that lead directly to punts, but DVOA cannot. That's an important point to keep in mind considering the somewhat rosy picture traditional numbers can paint.

According to Pro Football Reference, Tannehill completed 36 of 55 passes on 2nd-and-long (65.5 percent) for 375 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in 2018. Superficially, those are solid numbers. On 3rd-and-long, he was 24-of-45 (53.3 percent) with 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions: weak but not terrible in situations wherein leaguewide completion rates dip and interception rates increase.

Cutler's raw numbers in 2017 long-yardage situations are slightly better than Tannehill's in 2018: a 69.7 percent completion rate (62-of-89) on 2nd-and-long and a 56.3 percent rate (36-of-64) on 3rd-and-long.

Even Osweiler's long-yardage raw stats look good. Suspiciously good. Osweiler completed 63.6 percent (21-of-33) of his 2nd-and-long passes and a whopping 77.3 percent (17-of-22) of his 3rd-and-long passes last year.

You may recall Osweiler played fairly well against the Bears and Lions before reverting back to stumblebum mode. But no, he didn't become Drew Brees on 3rd-and-long.

Instead, Osweiler did what Cutler and Tannehill did in high-leverage situations in Gase's offense: He padded his stats with lots of failed completions.

   

Failing forward

The folks at Football Outsiders have been tracking "failed completions" for years. You can read the precise definition at the top of Bryan Knowles' article, but most fans know a failed completion when they see one: It's the two-yard pass in the flat on first down, the four-yarder on 2nd-and-10 and even the 14-yarder on 3rd-and-15.

Under Gase's watch, Dolphins quarterbacks threw lots and lots of failed completions:

• 29.5 percent of Tannehill's completions last year were failed completions, ranking him 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks. Failed completions accounted for 16.7 percent of his total pass attempts, which ranked 29th.
• 28.1 percent of Cutler's completions and 17.4 percent of his attempts in 2017 were failed completions. Both figures ranked 25th among eligible quarterbacks.
• 29.9 percent of Tannehill's completions (31st) and 20.2 percent of his attempts (31st) were failed completions during the Dolphins' triumphant wild-card season.

 

Known for his big arm, Jay Cutler excelled at throwing passes that would help the Dolphins' passing stats but not contribute to their ability to win games.Chris Trotman/Getty Images

For comparison's sake, successful quarterbacks usually throw failed completions on about 20-23 percent of completions and 10-15 percent of attempts. The bottom of the failed completion list is historically the hangout of notorious check-down artists like Manning and Flacco, caretaker veterans like Brian Hoyer and rookies in survival mode throwing screens on 3rd-and-20. (Darnold was not among those rookies last year; more on that in a moment.)

Football Outsiders also keeps track of the distances of both complete and incomplete passes on all third downs. The following results include short- and medium-yardage situations as well as 3rd-and-long, so when Tannehill threw a screen or swing pass on 3rd-and-4—which happened several times last year—that's also in the data:

• Tannehill threw short of the first-down marker on 52.8 percent of all third-down attempts last year, ranking 35th.
• Cutler threw short of the sticks on 54.5 percent of third downs in 2017, ranking 37th. His average throw on 3rd-and-longs that year was 3.7 yards short of the first-down marker, which is remarkable when you try to visualize it (on 3rd-and-10, Cutler was going out of his way to throw six- or seven-yard passes).
• Tannehill ranked 17th by throwing 41.9 percent of his passes in front of the sticks in 2016, his good season.

Three seasons of data doesn't lie. Gase's Dolphins were terrible in long-yardage situations, and short passes on 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long both contributed to the problem and masked it by making the raw passing stats look better.

   

Indefensible dink-and-dunking

Quarterbacks themselves have a lot to do with whether deep receivers or the guys running the shallow drags get targeted on any given pass, of course. But four different veteran quarterbacks (Tannehill, Cutler, Osweiler and Matt Moore) contributed to these numbers. And Gase himself frequently emphasizes and defends his dink-and-dunk philosophy. Here he is justifying his love of the short pass in 2016, August and November, for example.

Gase pointed out in 2016 that short passes lower sack totals, which is typically true. But Dolphins quarterbacks were sacked 13 times in 2nd-and-long situations last year. When defenses know what's coming and don't have to respect the downfield threat, it's easier for them to get to the quarterback.

Gase has also noted, accurately, that the NFL gets more short pass-oriented every year. But Gase's teams have now been on the extreme, counterproductive vanguard of that trend for three seasons, producing below-average results.

That could pose a huge problem for Darnold, whose encouraging rookie season was based partly on not doing the things Tannehill and Cutler did.

Darnold threw failed completions on only 21.8 percent of his completions (ninth in the NFL) and 11.7 percent of his attempts (a remarkable fourth). Uniquely among rookie quarterbacks, Darnold took his share of downfield shots last season, and they were starting to pay off. The Jets finished just 30th in DVOA on 2nd-and-long (still better than Gase's Dolphins, despite fewer weapons and reps split between the rookie Darnold and undead zombie Josh McCown) but a respectable 15th on 3rd-and-long.

 

A four-year study by Nate Weller of Sports Info Solutions proved rather conclusively that it's better to throw past the sticks on third down than dump the ball off: The slightly increased turnover risk on a downfield shot is more than offset by the potential reward. The Jets finally found a young quarterback who is both willing and able to be aggressive in long-yardage situations. But they have yoked him to a head coach who doesn't even want to take deep shots on second downs.

 

Sam Darnold showed signs as a rookie that he was willing, and able, to throw deep, but with Adam Gase as his coach, history says he may not get the same green light this season.Charles Krupa/Associated Press

By replacing a few big plays with lots of ineffective screens and drag routes, Gase could turn Darnold into an ineffective quarterback with decent-looking numbers—Tannehill, in other words.

   

Worst Gase scenario (sorry)

Before we wrap up, we should address some extenuating circumstances in Gase's favor to satisfy desperate Jets hopefuls, statistical sticklers and perhaps any Peyton Manning burner accounts.

• Gase's Dolphins had injury issues. The Dolphins ranked 30th in offensive adjusted games lost last year; Tannehill, receiver Albert Wilson, guard Josh Sitton and others missed significant time in 2018. Cutler himself was an injury replacement in 2017, and numerous starting linemen missed time that year.
• Tannehill and Cutler aren't exactly Steve Young and Joe Montana, and both tended to check down and rely too much on short passes before they worked with Gase. Tannehill cracked the all-time failed completion list in 2015, the year before Gase became the Dolphins head coach. Cutler made the same list in 2014, one season before Gase became his offensive coordinator for the Bears.

The caveats come with a built-in worry: If Gase downshifts his offense into check-down mode at the slightest excuse—some guys are hurt, the quarterback isn't phenomenal—then he's more likely than ever to roll out the shallow crosses on second-and-15 for a team with a second-year passer, a weak offensive line and a thin skill-position corps.

The numbers indicate Gase's offenses look great when Peyton Manning is in the huddle (as he was in 2013 and 2014) but weak-to-terrible given ordinary talent and somewhat typical NFL adversity. The same could be said of you or me, and no one is offering us complete control over Darnold's future.

 

The best-case scenario for Darnold would be to develop into a daring downfield passer who makes the most of every completion.

That's the exact opposite of a Gase quarterback. Which is why Gase looks like the wrong guy for the job.

[JetFreak89]

Take a look at this chart for Expected Points Added for each play on offense and defense. It's an advanced metric which basically weighs the outcome of each play against the likelyhood it will either add points for the team or add points to the opponent. For instance, a 4 yard run on 3rd and 10 from our own 15 yard line is very negative while a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 from the opponents 40 is very positive. Traditional stats (like total yards per game) treat those two 4 yard runs exactly the same. 

 

[SouthernJet]

5 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Take a look at this chart for Expected Points Added for each play on offense and defense. It's an advanced metric which basically weighs the outcome of each play against the likelyhood it will either add points for the team or add points to the opponent. For instance, a 4 yard run on 3rd and 10 from our own 15 yard line is very negative while a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 from the opponents 40 is very positive. Traditional stats (like total yards per game) treat those two 4 yard runs exactly the same. 

 

The Johnsons are fools. Big deal Peyton Manning said he is good. A Off coord for Manning is useless since Manning ALWAYS called all his own plays at line of scrimmage. A OC for Manning is basically a QB coach which also laughable for Hall of Famer. Basically Gase kissed his ass and became friends but never proved crap.

[SAR I]

Gase is such a bad head coach that he's making it look almost like we have a roster that's been mismanaged for a decade and five years worth of injuries happening at the same time.

SAR I

[peebag]

22 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Take a look at this chart for Expected Points Added for each play on offense and defense. It's an advanced metric which basically weighs the outcome of each play against the likelyhood it will either add points for the team or add points to the opponent. For instance, a 4 yard run on 3rd and 10 from our own 15 yard line is very negative while a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 from the opponents 40 is very positive. Traditional stats (like total yards per game) treat those two 4 yard runs exactly the same. 

 

[Integrity28]

Really good article. Spot on.

[slimjasi]

Yep, we have been complaining about throwing short of the sticks for two years. And I do remember this criticism at the time he was hired, but I hoped it was overblown. It definitely was not.

The other big issue I have with Gase’s offense is that he rarely designs plays to get Sam out of the pocket - which is where looks the best 

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, JetFreak89 said:

Take a look at this chart for Expected Points Added for each play on offense and defense. It's an advanced metric which basically weighs the outcome of each play against the likelyhood it will either add points for the team or add points to the opponent. For instance, a 4 yard run on 3rd and 10 from our own 15 yard line is very negative while a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 from the opponents 40 is very positive. Traditional stats (like total yards per game) treat those two 4 yard runs exactly the same. 

 

 

Check out the Ravens up there in the exact opposite corner, in a class by themselves.

Greg Roman, please.  Hire the man!

[freestater]

[Bugg]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

Gase is such a bad head coach that he's making it look almost like we have a roster that's been mismanaged for a decade and five years worth of injuries happening at the same time.

SAR I

You're missing Gase's MO is scared east/west passes, which get you in 3rd and long all night. That doesn't work. Takes too many plays to go downfield if you don't take some shots 

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

You're missing Gase's MO is scared east/west passes, which get you in 3rd and long all night. That doesn't work. Takes too many plays to go downfield if you don't take some shots 

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that we had exactly 1 NFL caliber receiving option on the field last night.  

When he had a healthy Darnold and Anderson we went deep many times.  We don’t have any WR’s.  

SAR I

[Obrien2Toon]

Wow, that’s unbelievable that it was written 2 years ago

Every single thing came true 

[Bugg]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that we had exactly 1 NFL caliber receiving option on the field last night.  

When he had a healthy Darnold and Anderson we went deep many times.  We don’t have any WR’s.  

SAR I

Problem is if you don;t have a serious passing attack, defenses cheat up. You cannot do much being on 3rd and long all night. The idea of failed completions is persuasive; are you tying to score.  Pass plays short of the stick, or Gore up the middle AGAIN  are just a wasting of time. 

[slimjasi]

4 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Wow, that’s unbelievable that it was written 2 years ago

Every single thing came true 

It is uncanny how accurate that article was 

uncanny 

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

16 hours ago, JetFreak89 said:

Take a look at this chart for Expected Points Added for each play on offense and defense. It's an advanced metric which basically weighs the outcome of each play against the likelyhood it will either add points for the team or add points to the opponent. For instance, a 4 yard run on 3rd and 10 from our own 15 yard line is very negative while a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 from the opponents 40 is very positive. Traditional stats (like total yards per game) treat those two 4 yard runs exactly the same. 

 

Jesus.  Does someone have the Johnson’s email?  They may not know how to read very well but a picture is worth 1,000 words.

The Jets are in Siberia.  Actually they should probably go there and play.  And stay.

[Jet2020]

16 hours ago, SAR I said:

Gase is such a bad head coach that he's making it look almost like we have a roster that's been mismanaged for a decade and five years worth of injuries happening at the same time.

SAR I

Clearly that’s not what the article is saying. It is simply talking about the Dolphins. The trend continued in NY as well. It’s not rocket science. 

[CrazyCarl40]

It’s almost like the folks here who said it was a bad hire from the beginning were right and not SOJ fans. Weird. 

[FidelioJet]

19 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yep, we have been complaining about throwing short of the sticks for two years. And I do remember this criticism at the time he was hired, but I hoped it was overblown. It definitely was not.

The other big issue I have with Gase’s offense is that he rarely designs plays to get Sam out of the pocket - which is where looks the best 

 

This, to me, is the most frustrating thing about Gase (and more so that he was hired) that he basically tried to turn Sam into a 38 year old Manning.   Refusing to play to his strengths.

Watching Sam play it's obvious what separates him from other QB's.  What advantage he gives you as a QB.  

It's sad watching Sam now and see how the joy has been completely wiped out of him as a player.  

[jetophile]

"2nd and long, 3rd and long", hahaha. You know, they always say that laughter is the best medicine but I never hear anyone say anything about self-ridicule. In that case I think it's more if you don't laugh you'll stab yourself in the face.

[Mark78]

Chronic stupidity by Gase! It’s like constantly going for a 65 yard field goal when the kicker’s range is 55 yards.

[Charlie Brown]

On 10/2/2020 at 8:46 PM, Obrien2Toon said:

Wow, that’s unbelievable that it was written 2 years ago

Every single thing came true 

Thank you....

Yet folks on this thread keep saying that its Gase's situation now with the Jets at issue.  If that were the case then how come Gase stunk it up in Miami and writers like this and many fans on this board noted Gase was the wrong HC for the Jets and Darnold?

Why did Gase put Darnold, Becton and Bell back in when they were all injured to where they shouldn't have been?

With Becton being the worse!

Gase is a Joke!