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The QB Thread


maury77

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I really like this QB class, but if we decide to go QB it's going to be very close. Fields and Wilson both check the boxes of stats, film, and analytics with flying colors. I feel like this team is going to ultimately pick the better person with the right character and brain after interviews and workouts are done. 

They are both simply very good prospects and I have high hopes for them. Though Lawrence's amount of starts and consistent play makes him the top prospect I would be lying if I said that the talent of Wilson/Fields isn't on the same level. 

I've watched extensive film on the top guys, and they each have something to like with little to dislike. Fields gets knocked for his mental game, but I think the factor of his offense in that is overlooked. Though admittedly some of his interceptions and bad plays were Darnold-esque and scared me, but its fixable and not very numerous. People also make the uneducated school argument for why he wont be good, it's mostly nitpicky nonsense against him (common trend).

However he has so many positives. He's got top tier speed, and uses that to his advantage in the pocket. He's got a cannon for an arm that is very accurate on all levels, the guy throws just about the best deep ball I've seen in college. Coupled with his athleticism, you have a uniquely great QB prospect. His accuracy measurables are off the charts and up there with some of the best to come out recently. He also knows when to use touch and his velocity to fit the ball into some tight windows. The media has been somewhat unfairly down on him albeit with some valid criticisms, but it seems like the media circlejerk over Wilson has led to a counter-jerk on this board with Fields coupled with a lot of Wilson nitpicking which I'll get into.

With Wilson, a lot of the positives are the same, but the nitpicky criticisms reach even higher. I've seen a lot of baseless claims about his character, I've seen people rip on his competition, his oline being good, mechanics, his previous struggles (like guys cant improve when they're healthy *cough* Burrow), and his injury history. I think the competition thing, the mechanics, and the injury concern are somewhat valid, but the competition one goes both ways. Saw a chart recently that showed his EPA vs his surrounding talent, and it was quite harsh on his supporting cast. Overall, most of his criticism has absolutely nothing to do with what he's done on the field as there is not a lot to nitpick on film.

When we get to positives, I'll keep it short but it's numerous. Like Fields, he has a great arm that is equally as great with angles. He's also deadly accurate, but it goes further than that. The guy has gotten really good at ball placement, which in my eyes is accuracy+. Some say that competition is a reason to stay away, but he led the nation in areas such as 2nd read passing, pro throws, and tight window throws which is him threading the needle better than anyone in the nation. He's also good at moving around the pocket, and running when he needs to. His athleticism is not on Fields' level, but it's very impressive. His massive improvement over the last season also shows me a guy who is good at learning, adapting, and working hard to improve his game which is essential for a developing QB. His love for the game is evident in his play, and his progression. 

That's my bits for now, have a nice day/evening everyone!

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On 3/1/2021 at 10:16 AM, kdels62 said:

Pretty good.  I cant really handle these type of break downs though, lots of guessing on what his reads were and to say someone didnt get off their 1st read for an entire 4 quarters and then show a play where maybe he really didnt?  Same with the INT where Fields is bad for this but maybe, most likely, the WR ran the wrong route.  lol  Hard to take these dudes seriously, fatigue definitely sets in too.

I think the Allen comparison is interesting.  I do think they're similar in that both are freak athletes but crazy to me to think Fields isnt light years ahead in the passing game coming out.  He's like a whole 25% points higher in comp% alone. 

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Peter King Article.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/nfl-draft-primer-quarterbacks-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

 

The Deep QB Draft

With five (six?) college quarterbacks set to be solid first-round candidates on April 29, I asked five people who’ve studied the tape on the class how they’d rank the best passers. Lots of similarities—except, as I mentioned, from Chris Simms.

Chris Simms, NBC, Former NFL QB

1. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young. Best pure thrower in the draft, most explosive arm in the draft. Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits. I think he’s more pro-ready than Trevor Lawrence.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Big, strong-armed, and played in a lot of big-time games. Still untapped potential. Throwing is not as consistent as Wilson or Mac Jones, but has great tools.

3. Mac Jones, Alabama. A machine. Best processor of information I’ve seen this year—the way Joe Burrow was. Throws a perfect spiral that hits the bullseye almost every throw. The way Alabama called plays, you could tell they trusted him more than Tua.

4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Way under the radar. Don’t know why. Third-purest thrower, behind Wilson and Jones. When pocket’s collapsing, can still throw a perfect 20-yard out. I think he’s a first-round talent. After my rankings came out, I had people in NFL text me, “Damn you. Wish you hadn’t brought his name up in the conversation.” Some teams love him.

5. Justin Fields, Ohio State. An Adonis. Built like Cam Newton. Great runner. Some inconsistencies in his throwing—mechanics and accuracy. Too many times when the mechanics lead to throws that aren’t effective.

6. Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I like his throwing and mechanics more than Fields. Wideout-type speed, really strong arm. But there’s a lack of experience, and often looks at one guy and makes a throw. Probably needs to sit for a year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him last till the second round.

Dan Orlovsky, ESPN, Former NFL QB

1. Lawrence. Elite fundamentals, elite talent. Untapped potential because of subpar scheme in college. Most consistent high level of play—we take it for granted.

2. Wilson. Omar Vizquel hands at QB. Very natural thrower of the football with the most “holy cow” throws in this draft. Play every snap with a belief there’s a big play out there somewhere on the field.

3. Fields. Physical talent is off the charts. Throws very well on the run. Will have to develop throwing to covered guys. Covered in college is often times open in NFL. Needs to be less “deliberate.”

4. Jones. Most impressive tape of any guy. Makes me say “so well done” the most. Perfect case of traits versus tape. Isn’t fast, but plays incredibly fast. I will know draft night if he’s going to be good (most dependent on where he goes).

5. Lance. Reminds me some of Dak Prescott. As good a deep ball thrower as anyone in the draft. Confidence in decisions. He’s an oxymoron—has a calm restlessness style of play.

 

Mike Renner, Pro Football Focus

1. Lawrence. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Not a Josh Allen arm, not Joe Burrow-accurate. But he’s NFL-ready. Very reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Can be a top-12 NFL quarterback in the NFL as a rookie.

2. Wilson. How much do you love big, highlight-reel impressive throws on every tape? Throws on the move, downfield, from different arm angles. Was not under pressure much. Didn’t play top competition.

3. Fields. Very accurate. For his career, the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever charted. His average depth of target is two yards farther than [ex-Buckeye] Dwayne Haskins. Plus, a legit weapon as a runner.

4. Lance. Probably the most impressive physical skill set of any QB in the draft. Probably the strongest arm, and he’s an excellent runner. Accuracy isn’t what the others have, but you fall in love with what he could be.

5. Jones. Doesn’t have the arm strength or mobility of the others. Might not make the special throws. But he’s accurate, with a very quick release, operated a good offense at a high level of a good offense. Outplayed Tua.

Greg Cosell, Analyst, “NFL Matchup” show

1. Lawrence. What consistently stood out was how precisely accurate he was on intermediate and deep throws. Bring the designed QB run game to an offense. Has an aggressive, turn-it-loose throwing mentality. Will be a day one NFL starter.

2. Wilson. His 2020 tape shows a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. My sense is he’s a combination of structured system efficiency with precise ball location and second-reaction improvisation.

Cosell has not ranked the order of Fields, Lance and Jones. Fields has a compact delivery and plus arm strength, Cosell said, but “did not show a natural feel for timing and anticipation—needed to see it before turning it loose.” Lance is “the most intriguing QB prospect” this year with great traits and a live arm; “it would not surprise me if Lance was a very good NFL QB three years down the road once he gains more experience and coaching.” Jones, Cosell said, is experienced with NFL route concepts and RPO, but he was concerned about Jones’ ability “to play outside of structure and make off-schedule plays.”

One more note from Cosell: “Jones is the most fascinating prospect. Almost every coach you talk to says second-reaction movement is almost essential for NFL quarterbacks now. Yet Jones has none and is not a good athlete. It will be interesting.”

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network Draft Analyst

1. Lawrence. Such a unique package. When you have that size and athletic ability, and he’s shown the ability to make plays outside the system too. Played against a high level for a long period.

2. Wilson. You’re getting pushback from a lot of folks who maybe didn’t watch as much of him. But there’s a lot of support for Zach around the league. He played the best this season, but there’s a difference between playing the best and being the best quarterback. If he hadn’t had that shoulder surgery [labrum surgery in 2019], I might be having some of Chris [Simms’] courage, putting Zach number one.

3. Lance. Lance and Fields are very close. Both physical, strong, aggressive, tough demeanor. It comes down to decision-making. Lance protects the football, has poise and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. Trusts what he sees. Is he ready right now? It’s more of a long-term play. I believe in the kid.

4. Fields. A little more accurate and consistent, but at times he got a little reckless with the ball. That bothered me. At times, he holds the ball too long. You can speed up your clock, which he needs to do.

5. Jones. Because his athletic tools are limited, it puts pressure on the organization to build up the rest of the roster. You’ve got to have a good offensive line in front of him.

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2 hours ago, Marshmello said:

Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits.

This is where I really struggle with all this Wilson stuff coming out and why I think this is dangerous.  There is literally nothing on film to support this idea.  He didnt need "magic"....he played in the cleanest pockets I've ever seen vs. teams that looked like they've never defended a pass and whenever he played up, he was god awful.  That is the complete opposite of "magic".  

Yes he has a live arm....but this where I just think these fools see something somewhat familiar, cling to it and say, see he's got this same thing that this awesome pro has too, so he's got to be good!!!  Yet, he doesnt, like at all and he's nowhere near the athlete of Mahomes/Rodgers.  They are freaks.  To compare him to the 2 most physically gifted QB's I've ever seen is just flat out stupid and just wrong...kind of unfair to him honestly.

There are 2 freaks in this draft, Lawrence and Fields (maybe Lance, I've never seen him play).  Wilson is just another kid with a big arm and that's it.  Does he make it at the next level, we'll see but the sh*t people are saying about him is absolute insane at this point.

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4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

All the man-love for Chris Simms no one is talking about how he doesn’t like Fields

Only fools have man love for Chris Simms.  He's not even serious with his takes.  He literally said gun to head if he was a GM he'd take Lawrence over Wilson, yet he has Wilson as the QB1.  When you say and do sh*t like that and then follow it up by rank Kellen Mond over Justin Fields, you're not to be taken seriously. 

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57 minutes ago, JiF said:

Only fools have man love for Chris Simms.  He's not even serious with his takes.  He literally said gun to head if he was a GM he'd take Lawrence over Wilson, yet he has Wilson as the QB1.  When you say and do sh*t like that and then follow it up by rank Kellen Mond over Justin Fields, you're not to be taken seriously. 

If you look at the two game by game, they are pretty even. Mond played a much tougher group of teams than Fields did , as you can't compare the Big 10 to the SEC. If Simms sees something on tape that he really likes about Mond, I could see why he would rate him this way. Not saying I agree with it, but it's not the craziest thing I've heard.

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38 minutes ago, section314 said:

If you look at the two game by game, they are pretty even. Mond played a much tougher group of teams than Fields did , as you can't compare the Big 10 to the SEC. If Simms sees something on tape that he really likes about Mond, I could see why he would rate him this way. Not saying I agree with it, but it's not the craziest thing I've heard.

Ironically, I've defended Mond in this forum.  I think he's a solid mid-late round prospect in the Josh Dobbs, Jeff Driskel, Jarrett Stidham category of somewhat athletic not very good QB's category ie: career back up.  The only real appeal to Mond is he's got 4 years of starting experience in a pro-system and he's got some versatility to him, otherwise, there is really nothing at all to like about him and nobody in their right mind would say he's better then Fields.  He was ugly in the senior bowl....down right ugly.

Simms is full of sh*t.  

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On 3/8/2021 at 8:55 AM, JiF said:

This is where I really struggle with all this Wilson stuff coming out and why I think this is dangerous.  There is literally nothing on film to support this idea.  He didnt need "magic"....he played in the cleanest pockets I've ever seen vs. teams that looked like they've never defended a pass and whenever he played up, he was god awful.  That is the complete opposite of "magic".  

Yes he has a live arm....but this where I just think these fools see something somewhat familiar, cling to it and say, see he's got this same thing that this awesome pro has too, so he's got to be good!!!  Yet, he doesnt, like at all and he's nowhere near the athlete of Mahomes/Rodgers.  They are freaks.  To compare him to the 2 most physically gifted QB's I've ever seen is just flat out stupid and just wrong...kind of unfair to him honestly.

There are 2 freaks in this draft, Lawrence and Fields (maybe Lance, I've never seen him play).  Wilson is just another kid with a big arm and that's it.  Does he make it at the next level, we'll see but the sh*t people are saying about him is absolute insane at this point.

He had one of the worst schedules to face with one of the best OL in the country in terms of efficiency, with two draft able receivers, yet he's being talked about how he like willed his team to victories.  I get Josh Allen broke out, but there's a bunch of guys that suck when the pressure gets too tight.  I mean look at Darnold and how he started seeing ghosts.  You can see the under pressure stats where Wilson starts to tank already.  

Here's how I put it.  I have more faith Darnold turns around with the Jets into a franchise QB, than Wilson turning into a franchise QB.  I could be wrong, and if we pick him, I'd love to be wrong.  I just don't see it.  

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6 hours ago, win4ever said:

Good News:  I finally got some BYU All-22 tape

Bad News:  Don't have Coastal Carolina

Worse News:  Sick with the flu so I won't be doing much with them until next week.

 

Feel better, looking forward to your breakdowns.

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He had one of the worst schedules to face with one of the best OL in the country in terms of efficiency, with two draft able receivers, yet he's being talked about how he like willed his team to victories.  I get Josh Allen broke out, but there's a bunch of guys that suck when the pressure gets too tight.  I mean look at Darnold and how he started seeing ghosts.  You can see the under pressure stats where Wilson starts to tank already.  
Here's how I put it.  I have more faith Darnold turns around with the Jets into a franchise QB, than Wilson turning into a franchise QB.  I could be wrong, and if we pick him, I'd love to be wrong.  I just don't see it.  

I’ve been feeling the same way. If it isn’t going to be Lawrence or Fields, I think I’d rather roll the dice on Darnold.


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24 minutes ago, maury77 said:


I’ve been feeling the same way. If it isn’t going to be Lawrence or Fields, I think I’d rather roll the dice on Darnold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is exactly how I feel too.  And I suspect a lot of people on this board feel the same or are coming around to this.  If we take Fields I will be thrilled.  If we trade down and Wilson gets taken at #2 I will be thrilled.  If we trade down and still get Fields, I will change my underwear.

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@TheMo, since I know you are a big FO guy: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2021/futures-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields

 

I can't figure out how to post the article because of the video clips, but FO says that Fields is a #1 overall caliber player. 

 

"Now just over a month away from the NFL draft, it is absurd the kind of pushback a prospect of Fields' caliber has received. Even though he is still a first-round quarterback to most, he has been dropping down the list of available quarterbacks when he should be nothing other than QB2. BYU's Zach Wilson is an exciting gunslinger and North Dakota State's Trey Lance is an intriguing gamble, but Fields is a legitimate first-overall caliber prospect. In a class with Trevor Lawrence, Fields should not actually go first overall in 2021, but he is good enough to have been the first quarterback off the board in almost every draft class over the past decade.

Fields is a former five-star recruit with two years of excellent production at an elite program. He has great size for the position, has A-tier physical tools, and has proven himself capable of making NFL reads and throws to every level of the field. Getting hung up on having a few instances where he holds the ball too long or knocking him down a peg because he is not the savant playmaker that Mahomes is just feels a classic case of missing the forest for the trees. Every team even somewhat considering drafting a quarterback should be snapping at Fields as soon as Lawrence comes off the board."

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On 3/9/2021 at 2:41 PM, JiF said:

Only fools have man love for Chris Simms.  He's not even serious with his takes.  He literally said gun to head if he was a GM he'd take Lawrence over Wilson, yet he has Wilson as the QB1.  When you say and do sh*t like that and then follow it up by rank Kellen Mond over Justin Fields, you're not to be taken seriously. 

I’m hoping Chris is trying to do us a solid in contributing to the media hypestorm for Wilson so we can get a nice package

 

I just love how Simms is now considered the Pope of Qb evaluation but no one is mentioning he’s basically declaring Fields a lock to bust

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6 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

I’m hoping Chris is trying to do us a solid in contributing to the media hypestorm for Wilson so we can get a nice package

 

I just love how Simms is now considered the Pope of Qb evaluation but no one is mentioning he’s basically declaring Fields a lock to bust

He declared Fields a first rounder with issues. 

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52 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Fields is a former five-star recruit with two years of excellent production at an elite program. He has great size for the position, has A-tier physical tools, and has proven himself capable of making NFL reads and throws to every level of the field. Getting hung up on having a few instances where he holds the ball too long or knocking him down a peg because he is not the savant playmaker that Mahomes is just feels a classic case of missing the forest for the trees. Every team even somewhat considering drafting a quarterback should be snapping at Fields as soon as Lawrence comes off the board."

I mean, summarizes what I've been saying this whole time but I think what is so wildly crazy to me is, I really cant remember a higher rated prospect, exceeding expectations, get beaten down so bad over what is so often complimented at the next level....hold the ball long, extend the play, find the big play see; Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers.  Obviously they do it in rhythm too but so does Fields.  If he's a 1 read QB, then he has too...just so much garbage reports out there.  Watson was close but I dont think he was on this level of tear down and in many ways, there are aspects of Fields that are more attractive namely; I think Fields is the more physical specimen who's built like a brick sh*t house and he took better care of the ball in college then Watson with arguably a bigger arm. 

It happens, again, this is a league that took Mitch Trubisky over Watson/Mahomes, Jared Goff #1 overall, Tua over Herbert, etc.  Nobody knows how to asses the QB, nobody.  Myself included but to me, when I see an alpha male, all world athlete highly productive big program QB who has an Ivy league brain.  It's hard to create a better prospect....unless you give him 3 more inches, white skin and long blonde flowing hair with a fun nickname like the Redneck Tarzan. 

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32 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

He declared Fields a first rounder with issues. 

 

6 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Chris is a smart guy trying to have a career in sports media.  He’s not going to say outright Fields sucks he has to be politically correct about it

Phil, that would mean, he believes Kellen Mond is a 1st round QB.

 

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17 hours ago, JiF said:

Feel better, looking forward to your breakdowns.

I looked into one game already, it's just a matter of how long the article would be.  I figure I can do a long piece on the case against Wilson, then followed by the case for Fields.  Break it up into a bunch of articles because I already had to pay for the All-22 (lol), so no point in investing into software to draw up plays and record videos.  

Figure I can set it to run like a daily thing for a week, breaking down a category I'm worried about (and also what IS actually good about him), then another similar one for Fields but leaning towards more positive side.  Just need to figure out time to write it up.  

16 hours ago, maury77 said:


I’ve been feeling the same way. If it isn’t going to be Lawrence or Fields, I think I’d rather roll the dice on Darnold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, the more I watch on Wilson, the more I see Jordan Love.  Eats up loser competition, has the tools to make "NFL throws" except he regressed in his JR. season.  Wilson basically ate up mediocre competition in his JR season, and sucked last year, but somehow the narrative is different.  

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Simms made great points and he clearly has a history of spotting the underrated guys. His analysis was excellent even if I think he's talking up Wilson a bit too much. He definitely highlighted his strengths. For all his clean pockets when the play does break down he shows tremendous poise, similar to what Lawrence does. He's a good prospect even if I think #2 is a little high for him. Feels like a boom or bust, a Trubisky/Mahomes type guy who could go either way. 

But what convinced me with Simms was that he's seeing everything I am with Justin Fields. A physically talented player who is just absolutely all over the place with his fundamentals, who doesn't react well in the pocket, who is inconsistent with his velocity. By far the worst prospect I have ever seen touted as a #2 and it's about time that people are exposing him. He would be an absolute catastrophe at 2, he's the kind of prsopect you take a flier on in the 2nd round and hope that he can sit and develop. If he started week one for us then we're picking first in 2022 and will be going again. 

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3 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

But what convinced me with Simms was that he's seeing everything I am with Justin Fields. A physically talented player who is just absolutely all over the place with his fundamentals, who doesn't react well in the pocket, who is inconsistent with his velocity. By far the worst prospect I have ever seen touted as a #2 and it's about time that people are exposing him. He would be an absolute catastrophe at 2, he's the kind of prsopect you take a flier on in the 2nd round and hope that he can sit and develop. If he started week one for us then we're picking first in 2022 and will be going again. 

Your take on Fields is mind-numbing dumb and you just repeat the same incorrect nonsense over and over again.  No offense.

Did you think Watson was a mid round prospect as well?  My guess is yes. 

The bold, hands down bar none the worst take I've ever heard.  Hands down.

❤️

 

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50 minutes ago, JiF said:

Your take on Fields is mind-numbing dumb and you just repeat the same incorrect nonsense over and over again.  No offense.

Did you think Watson was a mid round prospect as well?  My guess is yes. 

The bold, hands down bar none the worst take I've ever heard.  Hands down.

❤️

 

It's almost like there will be future games that can determine the accuracy of said take. We shall see. I have nothing against him, he seems a great guy. Much more likeable than Wilson, but he's trash. 

No I would have loved Watson but I wasn't watching CFB at the time, I was barely watching the NFL. I had checked out. They're absolutely not comparable as prospects. Watson is one of the best pure passers the league has seen in decades. Fields can barely throw to the sideline without it sailing on him and he disintegrates under any kind of pressure. It's not a problem that will be fixed soon either, he needs years of work. Undraftable at 2. Would set the franchise back a decade.

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2 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

It's almost like there will be future games that can determine the accuracy of said take. We shall see. I have nothing against him, he seems a great guy. Much more likeable than Wilson, but he's trash. 

No I would have loved Watson but I wasn't watching CFB at the time, I was barely watching the NFL. I had checked out. They're absolutely not comparable as prospects. Watson is one of the best pure passers the league has seen in decades. Fields can barely throw to the sideline without it sailing on him and he disintegrates under any kind of pressure. It's not a problem that will be fixed soon either, he needs years of work. Undraftable at 2. Would set the franchise back a decade.

Your take on Fields are insanely inaccurate and saying things like "he's trash" means that you cant be taken seriously on this topic and should be completely ignored by all readers therefore I have decided to let you continue to spew your inaccurate nonsense uncontested on this board but I want you know, its out of pure love.

 

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On 3/13/2021 at 8:40 PM, kdels62 said:

 

ot 

I was bored and watched and pleasantly found these somewhat compelling.  

At the end of the day, these guys are prospects and will both need development.  I dont know how anyone could look at either and think they're a finished product.  As much as I love Fields, I'm on record that I'd like him to sit and watch year 1.  Not because I dont think he can handle it but because I think it's the right thing to do for his development.  And as much as I dont want Wilson, I think the same approach is necessary for him as well.  And all rookies QB's need the right situation.  None of these dudes do it by themselves, never have, never will. 

If you're throwing out that Fields might arguably be the best athlete in the draft, I think ultimately, what it comes down to is;  do you think you can fix Wilson's sloppy mechanics/footwork vs. do you think can teach Fields the small ball nuances required to play at the NFL level.  For me obviously; the later is an easier fix considering the player/athlete/intelligence.  Whereas, the footwork/mechanics stuff is scary as we watch Sam Darnold bust out of NY.

 

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