The QB Thread

[win4ever]

15 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Could you explain this graph? It sems to be saying that Zach Wilson played 2 STD deviations over expected? And that his team was a standard deviation better than average. Usually I would expect in graphs that top right corner is usually the best but I am not sure of that in this one. Alabama certainly had a far better supporting cast than BYU. Would love to hear the explanation. 

So what that essentially states is two different stats converging.  

Y axis is using advanced stats to measure how good the QB play was.  So the higher they are, the better.  In this case, I think Mac Jones was the best performing QB.   

The X axis is based on supporting cast rating (I believe vs. competition) which evaluates how much help one had during the year vs. who they faced.  For example, both Mac Jones and Wilson have highly rated supporting casts, but we easily know that Jones' supporting cast will kick Wilson's cast's ass.  Therefore, based on the type of defenses faced, where your cast was just superior.  

Fields numbers on the X axis comes towards the middle, which means his cast wasn't considerably greater than his opponents.  Now part of this is of course because Ohio State played both Clemson and Alabama, both teams that would bring Ohio State closer to the mean.  

So the top right means great stats while having a supporting cast advantage.  

Top left would mean great stats while having subpar supporting cast.   

Bottom left would mean bad stats while having subpar supporting cast.  

Bottom right would mean bad stats while having a supporting cast advantage.  

In this case, being in the bottom right quadrant is the worst, and the top left is the best. 

Fields is closer to the top left than either Jones, Wilson, or Lawrence.  The interesting guy to note here is Howell and Corral, if we pass on QB this year.   

[Grandy]

Watched every Wilson, Fields, and Lawrence play, going to write about it when I'm not lazy.

[win4ever]

4 minutes ago, maury77 said:

LOL, I’m sure you will get blasted


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lol, there's a part of me that wants to actually delete the reference to my real estate phone number before posting this.  But then a part of me is like, eh, it's my opinion on a scouting report.  

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

So take Trask at #34?

?

 

I think the guy that's really interesting to me is Howell next year, I like to pay attention to guys that elevate receivers.  If I see guys like Brown and Newsome get hype, I like to look at their QB as well and see if he's the reason.  

[maury77]

So this is an EXTREMELY limited sample and you will have to work your way through the BYU tape, but if. you want to see Wilson and FIelds against a common opponent (Tennessee), here you go:

start at 8:25

 

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, win4ever said:

So what that essentially states is two different stats converging.  

Y axis is using advanced stats to measure how good the QB play was.  So the higher they are, the better.  In this case, I think Mac Jones was the best performing QB.   

The X axis is based on supporting cast rating (I believe vs. competition) which evaluates how much help one had during the year vs. who they faced.  For example, both Mac Jones and Wilson have highly rated supporting casts, but we easily know that Jones' supporting cast will kick Wilson's cast's ass.  Therefore, based on the type of defenses faced, where your cast was just superior.  

Fields numbers on the X axis comes towards the middle, which means his cast wasn't considerably greater than his opponents.  Now part of this is of course because Ohio State played both Clemson and Alabama, both teams that would bring Ohio State closer to the mean.  

So the top right means great stats while having a supporting cast advantage.  

Top left would mean great stats while having subpar supporting cast.   

Bottom left would mean bad stats while having subpar supporting cast.  

Bottom right would mean bad stats while having a supporting cast advantage.  

In this case, being in the bottom right quadrant is the worst, and the top left is the best. 

Fields is closer to the top left than either Jones, Wilson, or Lawrence.  The interesting guy to note here is Howell and Corral, if we pass on QB this year.   

Interesting. The graph would suggest then that Lawrence might be the most likely to bust of the QBs that played last year. Still 2 deviations above expectancy for any QB would indicate he is a good QB. Thanks for sharing.

[win4ever]

2 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Interesting. The graph would suggest then that Lawrence might be the most likely to bust of the QBs that played last year. Still 2 deviations above expectancy for any QB would indicate he is a good QB. Thanks for sharing.

Lawrence to me is worrying because he didn't look good against Ohio State both times, and LSU.  He did well against ND twice, and Alabama freshman year.  

I kinda get a similar feeling of watching Darnold in college. when everyone said he was QB1.  Lawrence has a higher ceiling, but you watch film and you go "There's not a lot of wow throws" that make you go, damn, you can't stop that guy.  As much as I hate on Wilson, pop any game in, and there's 5 throws that I think are better than Lawrence.   My issue with Wilson is that it's a pure athleticism draft, because the competition sucked.  I liked Fields because I thought he had the best athletic gifts of the bunch and played well against good competition.  

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out because it's all a gamble.  I'll get excited about whoever we pick, and talk myself into that being the right pick, lol.....until it's not.  

[JohnnyLV]

7 minutes ago, win4ever said:

Lawrence to me is worrying because he didn't look good against Ohio State both times, and LSU.  He did well against ND twice, and Alabama freshman year.  

I kinda get a similar feeling of watching Darnold in college. when everyone said he was QB1.  Lawrence has a higher ceiling, but you watch film and you go "There's not a lot of wow throws" that make you go, damn, you can't stop that guy.  As much as I hate on Wilson, pop any game in, and there's 5 throws that I think are better than Lawrence.   My issue with Wilson is that it's a pure athleticism draft, because the competition sucked.  I liked Fields because I thought he had the best athletic gifts of the bunch and played well against good competition.  

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out because it's all a gamble.  I'll get excited about whoever we pick, and talk myself into that being the right pick, lol.....until it's not.  

I agree with you on Lawrence. He is a good player but I just never really come away thinking "wow, he is elite" but we will see.

In terms of Wilson, I just see the throws he makes and to my eye they just seem like NFL throws to me. They are just so accurate with anticipation and touch and velocity when needed that I think the results would mostly be the same even with better corners, not even allowing that the receiver is better as well. I get carried away with Wilson because like you said there is at least 5 throws every game which are like "WOW, did he just do that type of throws". He's not perfect, he struggles a bit with throws behind the LOS for some reason and he backpeddles in the face of pressure up the middle some times. But like at his pro days a lot of the outs and quick cutters were thrown with such anticipation and with such pace that they seem like they will get there before even a NFL defender can react.

If Wilson is the pick JD cannot make the Sam mistake and start drafting more defense and ignoring the OL. He really needs to figure out a way to take 2 OL a TE  and maybe even a RB or another WR.

Not a big fan of the 23 spot. I would love for us to find a way, even if we overpay at bit to get back inside the Top and get an elite playmaker or one of the tackles

 

 

 

[win4ever]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

I agree with you on Lawrence. He is a good player but I just never really come away thinking "wow, he is elite" but we will see.

In terms of Wilson, I just see the throws he makes and to my eye they just seem like NFL throws to me. They are just so accurate with anticipation and touch and velocity when needed that I think the results would mostly be the same even with better corners, not even allowing that the receiver is better as well. I get carried away with Wilson because like you said there is at least 5 throws every game which are like "WOW, did he just do that type of throws". He's not perfect, he struggles a bit with throws behind the LOS for some reason and he backpeddles in the face of pressure up the middle some times. But like at his pro days a lot of the outs and quick cutters were thrown with such anticipation and with such pace that they seem like they will get there before even a NFL defender can react.

If Wilson is the pick JD cannot make the Sam mistake and start drafting more defense and ignoring the OL. He really needs to figure out a way to take 2 OL a TE  and maybe even a RB or another WR.

Not a big fan of the 23 spot. I would love for us to find a way, even if we overpay at bit to get back inside the Top and get an elite playmaker or one of the tackles

 

 

 

I think the biggest concern with Wilson is that, his level of competition really warrants questioning because it allows him to get away with so many mistakes.  

If we do pure arm, everything to do with just the arm in terms of velocity and accuracy, Wilson is QB1 in this draft.  Even Lawrence isn't touching him.  

My problem is that, Wilson does a lot of things that won't translate, like back pedaling out in the pocket.  There's a ton of plays where he's 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  He locks in one receivers from the get-go far too often.  He reminds me a bunch of Jordan Love, with a flair of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Personally, I don't draft him in the top 10, because I think he's going to have a big adjustment period, unless this Lafluer system is some magic like the Shanahan one.   

A lot of times we hear the Mahomes comparison, but that's very unique.  One, he sat behind one of the best minds in the game for Alex Smith, who by all accounts was a great mentor.  He learned from one of the best offensive coaches in the game with Reid.  Those two alone while sitting out basically a year gives Mahomes a leg up.   

Then we factor in that the offense is perfectly catered to his skill set.  They have a dominant OL, which means you aren't putting too much pressure unless you blitz.  He has enough scramble skills to buy time if he needs to.  The receivers basically run a track meet, which means you put 2 safeties back there to have any shot (as TB found out in the regular season).  They have an intermediate threat in Kelce, who is one of the best in the game.  And they have running backs that can catch out of the backfield.  There's a big reason why KC went really hard after OL in free agency, because that scheme is heavily dependent on not getting pressure without blitzes.  They need a rock solid OL, because they stretch the field vertically, so the intermediate area is open.  And then he has enough mobility to gain yards if they are there.  

We have exactly 0 of those factors.  

Now could Wilson become the QB1 of this draft?  Absolutely.  I think if everyone in this draft reaches their ceiling, Wilson is QB1 in this draft because that arm is special.  But picking him at 2 is just too risky for me.  I think Fields is the better fit for the system, AND has a much higher floor.  

Also, I'm worried about the injuries.   

But it's also merely my opinion, and of no value to the Jets or the NFL.  I'm going Fields over Wilson.  But I'm also trying to change the way I write as well, going more for what I believe in over the consensus.  If we pick Wilson, I hope I'm wrong.  

[JohnnyLV]

22 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I think the biggest concern with Wilson is that, his level of competition really warrants questioning because it allows him to get away with so many mistakes.  

If we do pure arm, everything to do with just the arm in terms of velocity and accuracy, Wilson is QB1 in this draft.  Even Lawrence isn't touching him.  

My problem is that, Wilson does a lot of things that won't translate, like back pedaling out in the pocket.  There's a ton of plays where he's 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  He locks in one receivers from the get-go far too often.  He reminds me a bunch of Jordan Love, with a flair of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Personally, I don't draft him in the top 10, because I think he's going to have a big adjustment period, unless this Lafluer system is some magic like the Shanahan one.   

A lot of times we hear the Mahomes comparison, but that's very unique.  One, he sat behind one of the best minds in the game for Alex Smith, who by all accounts was a great mentor.  He learned from one of the best offensive coaches in the game with Reid.  Those two alone while sitting out basically a year gives Mahomes a leg up.   

Then we factor in that the offense is perfectly catered to his skill set.  They have a dominant OL, which means you aren't putting too much pressure unless you blitz.  He has enough scramble skills to buy time if he needs to.  The receivers basically run a track meet, which means you put 2 safeties back there to have any shot (as TB found out in the regular season).  They have an intermediate threat in Kelce, who is one of the best in the game.  And they have running backs that can catch out of the backfield.  There's a big reason why KC went really hard after OL in free agency, because that scheme is heavily dependent on not getting pressure without blitzes.  They need a rock solid OL, because they stretch the field vertically, so the intermediate area is open.  And then he has enough mobility to gain yards if they are there.  

We have exactly 0 of those factors.  

Now could Wilson become the QB1 of this draft?  Absolutely.  I think if everyone in this draft reaches their ceiling, Wilson is QB1 in this draft because that arm is special.  But picking him at 2 is just too risky for me.  I think Fields is the better fit for the system, AND has a much higher floor.  

Also, I'm worried about the injuries.   

But it's also merely my opinion, and of no value to the Jets or the NFL.  I'm going Fields over Wilson.  But I'm also trying to change the way I write as well, going more for what I believe in over the consensus.  If we pick Wilson, I hope I'm wrong.  

Fair take. I have certainly been completely wrong before- I hated Deshaun Watson I thought he would be a colossal bust, but I was way wrong.

Have you watched any of the Wilson videos where he breaks down his games? He is really intelligent. 

In my viewings of him I see him looking off defenders a lot and throwing to second and third reads so I don't see that flaw you mention.

In terms of Fields, don't see it. I think he is more flawed than Wilson in a lot of ways but don't want to go down that rabbit hole. It does look like Wilson will be the guy so hopefully you and Maury77 are wrong. But that also starts with OL, TE in the top of the draft.

 

[win4ever]

36 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Fair take. I have certainly been completely wrong before- I hated Deshaun Watson I thought he would be a colossal bust, but I was way wrong.

Have you watched any of the Wilson videos where he breaks down his games? He is really intelligent. 

In my viewings of him I see him looking off defenders a lot and throwing to second and third reads so I don't see that flaw you mention.

In terms of Fields, don't see it. I think he is more flawed than Wilson in a lot of ways but don't want to go down that rabbit hole. It does look like Wilson will be the guy so hopefully you and Maury77 are wrong. But that also starts with OL, TE in the top of the draft.

 

I hate Josh Allen, and he's basically an MVP candidate, so not infallible at all.  

I watched a couple of his interviews, but I don't really put much weight in them.  I remember the old Gruden camps and Marriuchi white board, and I think Kurt Warner did some stuff too, but most of them are just PR fluff pieces, IMO.  It's like those Sports Science shows, pretty much everyone that went on there was touted to be like 95 percentile of some BS test they created.  

I'll back it up with the articles, just need to trudge through to finish them.  

Yeah, I'm hearing that Wilson is the pick, but I'm also not sure.  The Breer report basically said Douglas is keeping the pick to himself and isn't letting anyone know, yet we have everyone speculating it is Wilson.  So I'm not sure what to think.  

I probably won't do the Fields one unless we pick him, it's just too much work.  

[Philc1]

11 hours ago, win4ever said:

I think the guy that's really interesting to me is Howell next year, I like to pay attention to guys that elevate receivers.  If I see guys like Brown and Newsome get hype, I like to look at their QB as well and see if he's the reason.  

Howell is way better than any non Trevor Lawrence qb this season

[kdels62]

This is a good video. I don’t find any of what he points out to be a “fatal flaw” but Wilson has flaws.

[Philc1]

7 hours ago, kdels62 said:

This is a good video. I don’t find any of what he points out to be a “fatal flaw” but Wilson has flaws.

The biggest one is he’s fragile 

[JustInFudge]

20 hours ago, maury77 said:

So this is an EXTREMELY limited sample and you will have to work your way through the BYU tape, but if. you want to see Wilson and FIelds against a common opponent (Tennessee), here you go:

start at 8:25

 

Wild game. Zach went from a game losing decisions to find someone in broken coverage and ending up forcing OT and winning the game.  That actually, might be my favorite tape on him.  He was ineffective for a long period of time but then handle big pressure situation on the road like a G.

 

[JohnnyLV]

13 hours ago, kdels62 said:

This is a good video. I don’t find any of what he points out to be a “fatal flaw” but Wilson has flaws.

Seemed like a pretty anal video. JT O'Sullivan actuals covers some of the mesh throws and how improved the read even in the same game.  Favre liked second window slants so I would assume this guy would rip his anticipation. Zack is not perfect but anticipation from what I have seen is not really an issue. He conveniently skipped the dozens of slants he threw with incredible anticipation. 

[legler82]

This is the best analysis I’ve heard/read anywhere. Apologies if this has already been posted.  

 

[maury77]

I've been a huge fan of JT O'Sullivan and here he breaks down a lot of the things I see with Wilson. @kdels62 @win4ever @Paradis @JiF @sec101row23 @Lith @Jets Voice of Reason

[sec101row23]

On 3/29/2021 at 11:34 PM, johnnysd said:

Seemed like a pretty anal video. JT O'Sullivan actuals covers some of the mesh throws and how improved the read even in the same game.  Favre liked second window slants so I would assume this guy would rip his anticipation. Zack is not perfect but anticipation from what I have seen is not really an issue. He conveniently skipped the dozens of slants he threw with incredible anticipation. 

I’m not sure I see “incredible anticipation”, particularly when working the intermediate middle of the field.  If he were throwing with ”incredible anticipation” we would see him connect on more of these routes.   He has a really good arm, but I don’t feel like he’s doing anything elite with his reads or his anticipation.  

[kdels62]

26 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I've been a huge fan of JT O'Sullivan and here he breaks down a lot of the things I see with Wilson. @kdels62 @win4ever @Paradis @JiF @sec101row23 @Lith @Jets Voice of Reason

This is a very biased video because it’s presented with bias. He’s also not wrong. Wilson and that deep over the shoulder ball is a weakness. But no one is calling Wilson perfect and if they are it’s not worth making a YouTube video to prove them wrong. Also that first throw is a dime that hits his receiver with his arms outstretched. 

For context, these are all the bad plays of Wilson’s worst game in 2020. There are like 5 bad plays. Wilson needs to get the ball over the shoulder to his left better and sometimes he plays hero ball. He’s still got great accuracy, and will make make few bad decisions.

[kdels62]

20 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I’m not sure I see “incredible anticipation”, particularly when working the intermediate middle of the field.  If he were throwing with ”incredible anticipation” we would see him connect on more of these routes.   He has a really good arm, but I don’t feel like he’s doing anything elite with his reads or his anticipation.  

I agree with this. Wilson is cautious around safeties and would rather see the open man than throw into the window. He’s shown flashes of doing that but it’s not consistent.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

I've been a huge fan of JT O'Sullivan and here he breaks down a lot of the things I see with Wilson. @kdels62 @win4ever @Paradis @JiF @sec101row23 @Lith @Jets Voice of Reason

Yep he is not perfect and still needs coaching. I am sure his coaches did not use any of those plays for coaching opportunities. It is also not like even the elite NFL QBs miss reads all the time...I mean in almost every game there are 3 or 4 plays where "blah blah was wide open" on that play but he didn't see him. 

Favre by the way loved the second window slant because the defender allows separation after the first window when the defender expects the ball to be thrown. 

The swing pass was bad. I have acknowledged that is a weakness he needs to fix, and even in his pro day missed a couple similar passes? Can he be coached out of it? Are you suggesting he should not be picked because he needs to work on that pass?

He also shows a number of exceptional throws.

I mean are you really expecting him to be a perfect prospect to be picked? JT could also do a nit picky video of any of the QBs and most would be worse.

On the one where he threw the swing where JT insists he should have thrown to the middle it looks like from Zack's view point the defender would have been in his line and looked like he was double covered..

He underthrew the go to the left? Does any QB in the NFL not under/over throw QBs?

IMO JT made this video for clicks for those who dislike Zack and want confirmation. 

It is what it is. If you do not like Wilson this will validate your dislike, if you like Wilson you will see all of it as coachable with several really elite plays thrown in.

Also, it completely ignores all the times he did make the right read and find the open guy. He did that pretty consistently.

I have no idea why someone would like Fields more but that is just me. All just opinions. I could be wrong.

 

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

I’m not sure I see “incredible anticipation”, particularly when working the intermediate middle of the field.  If he were throwing with ”incredible anticipation” we would see him connect on more of these routes.   He has a really good arm, but I don’t feel like he’s doing anything elite with his reads or his anticipation.  

I see it all the time especially on deep outs and incuts where he throws the ball well before the receiver is even into his break.

[kdels62]

7 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I see it all the time especially on deep outs and incuts where he throws the ball well before the receiver is even into his break.

Wilson’s anticipation in the middle does leave a bit to be desired. Wilson is excellent on throws outside the numbers.

[JohnnyLV]

Just now, kdels62 said:

Wilson’s anticipation in the middle does leave a bit to be desired. Wilson is excellent on throws outside the numbers.

Yes I agree with that. If you look though towards the end of the year he improved markedly in moving the safety with his eyes. And he does struggle with the sort of parallel passes still. So he definitely needs coaching and development and learning. But I just think the good is SOOO good it is worth the risk. And with him on a rookie deal and not needing to trade up for him if he fails it is not a franchise killer. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

This is a very biased video because it’s presented with bias. He’s also not wrong. Wilson and that deep over the shoulder ball is a weakness. But no one is calling Wilson perfect and if they are it’s not worth making a YouTube video to prove them wrong. Also that first throw is a dime that hits his receiver with his arms outstretched. 

For context, these are all the bad plays of Wilson’s worst game in 2020. There are like 5 bad plays. Wilson needs to get the ball over the shoulder to his left better and sometimes he plays hero ball. He’s still got great accuracy, and will make make few bad decisions.

 

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

This is a very biased video because it’s presented with bias. He’s also not wrong. Wilson and that deep over the shoulder ball is a weakness. But no one is calling Wilson perfect and if they are it’s not worth making a YouTube video to prove them wrong. Also that first throw is a dime that hits his receiver with his arms outstretched. 

For context, these are all the bad plays of Wilson’s worst game in 2020. There are like 5 bad plays. Wilson needs to get the ball over the shoulder to his left better and sometimes he plays hero ball. He’s still got great accuracy, and will make make few bad decisions.

It's not simply that though. I think Wilson is being billed as some brilliant processor and decision maker and I think its an exaggeration. I remember another example in the Boise State game where he had a guy wide open over the middle but he went for the YOLO throw into the end zone. 

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

 

It's not simply that though. I think Wilson is being billed as some brilliant processor and decision maker and I think its an exaggeration. I remember another example in the Boise State game where he had a guy wide open over the middle but he went for the YOLO throw into the end zone. 

But that’s the thing, he isn’t perfect, no one thinks he is. He makes bad choices sometimes but the reason you remember them is that they are rare. In this Houston game he misses the mesh once, while against UCF he hammers the mesh multiple times to get first downs. On the totality he isn’t perfect but he doesn’t repeat the same mistake every game or even multiple times a game. He’s on point 70% of the time and that’s a good place to start.

[jvill 51]

 

[win4ever]

10 hours ago, maury77 said:

I've been a huge fan of JT O'Sullivan and here he breaks down a lot of the things I see with Wilson. @kdels62 @win4ever @Paradis @JiF @sec101row23 @Lith @Jets Voice of Reason

Kinda sad he beat me to starting the "Hmm wait a minute" train on Wilson.  Right now we're in the process of deciding if the articles might be too negative on Wilson, and possible backlash.  

 

[maury77]

Kinda sad he beat me to starting the "Hmm wait a minute" train on Wilson.  Right now we're in the process of deciding if the articles might be too negative on Wilson, and possible backlash.  
 

https://media.tenor.com/images/02d7161fb2970d70b0860c66c8347077/tenor.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lith]

7 hours ago, kdels62 said:

But that’s the thing, he isn’t perfect, no one thinks he is. He makes bad choices sometimes but the reason you remember them is that they are rare. In this Houston game he misses the mesh once, while against UCF he hammers the mesh multiple times to get first downs. On the totality he isn’t perfect but he doesn’t repeat the same mistake every game or even multiple times a game. He’s on point 70% of the time and that’s a good place to start.

Have you seen the thread on his pro day on the main board?  Plenty of folks appear to think he is perfect.

The video Maury posted this AM was just posted on the main board.  Should be entertaining to watch that thread evolve. 

[win4ever]

31 minutes ago, maury77 said:

https://media.tenor.com/images/02d7161fb2970d70b0860c66c8347077/tenor.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Most of the articles are done.  I'm actually doing his good NFL throws article today.  Tomorrow, if I get time, should be done with interceptions as well.  At this point, talking to Phil, and we're wondering if running so many articles saying he's not that great is good for business lol.  Might need to delete my phone number from the page description talking about real estate.  

[maury77]

Have you seen the thread on his pro day on the main board?  Plenty of folks appear to think he is perfect.
The video Maury posted this AM was just posted on the main board.  Should be entertaining to watch that thread evolve. 

The main board .........


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[kdels62]

43 minutes ago, maury77 said:

The main board .........


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Honestly, the main board seems pretty pro-Fields and Wilson. They’re excited for the next QB and that’s a good thing. 

[TheMo]

11 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Honestly, the main board seems pretty pro-Fields and Wilson. They’re excited for the next QB and that’s a good thing. 

The main board is a cesspool for in depth conversation on prospects. I mean you are considered a Wilson hater over there lmao. Again my issues with Wilson from having to make an assumption about how he handles a huge jump in the speed of the game. Fields I don’t have to make as big of an assumption. To me it’s like when a patient of mine just had general anesthesia. I can look to the record and see how they tolerated it as opposed to the person who I have no record on and am trying to guess how they will do. Obviously the former is preferable.