The QB Thread

[JustInFudge]

6 hours ago, win4ever said:

My prediction:  Fields runs a fast 40 during his pro-day, and we get the "Well, that pro-day absolutely changed some minds" turnarounds soon.  I just feel like it's a set up to pivot later.

It would be shocking to me that once teams see how ridiculous of physical specimen he is and then they have a chance to test that Ivy league brain, that Wilson will remain the clear #2.  I'm sorry, you cant earnestly put these 2 kids side by side and say, yeah, I'll take the soft little unathletic dude who played nobodies, who is injury ridded and has all sorts of flaws in his game.  Like I get it right now because hot takes and click bait but your a Head Coach, you have both these dudes in camp and you put those 2 kids side by side and have them run all the same sh*t at the same speed vs. the same comp., GTFO here you're walking away like, oh yeah, Wilson is the guy.  Maybe 1 Kirby Smart type moron out of 10 falls in love with the arm and ignores the rest.  Hell, I'd bet every penny I have that if Sitake had Fields and Wilson in the program at the same time, Wilson would be following the portal transfer system to another team.

But then again, we saw Mitch Trubisky go before Watson/Mahomes for legitimately, no apparent reason.  So who knows, I think by in large the scouting communities and team scouts, legit have no clue what they're looking at or trying to find in a QB these days.  For me it's simple; look at the NFL.  Who are the best QB's?  You see 1 common theme, freakish ability.  Wilson has nothing freakish about him, I'll say it again; he's Mitch and Manziel wrapped into Drew Lock.

[maury77]

7 hours ago, win4ever said:

I think after the Clemson game, people were quiet.  But he was clearly off in the Alabama game.  That team thrived on the 4 vert attack, and they just weren't doing it.  I'm presuming it has something to do with his ribs, because once the defense knew they couldn't stop Alabama, it was almost like they gave up.  

I don't understand some of the narratives around him:

OSU System:  False - He runs a much more vertical based offense, not the quick read/short pass offense with Meyer.  

Slow Processing:  His system calls for option routes down the field, not like he can just throw it before those options

An athlete not cerebral:  Great student who makes good reads

Can someone tell me why he's worse than Watson coming out of college?  

 

 

The sad thing is if we draft Wilson at say 8 or something, I'd be happy.  I just don't like him when compared to Fields, but if we're talking Wilson plus a premium pick, then I'm listening.  I watched one BS video that said Wilson was a perfect fit (it was one of those YouTube channels that makes outlandish claims to stand out at times) where it showed one throw of Wilson making an out throw from the far hash.  Then Garrapolo throwing an out route, and saying that's why it's a perfect fit.  Literally every offense has that throw but this was magically the fit for the 49ers system.  

I could talk myself into Lawrence/Fields/Wilson/Lance/and even Jones.  The difference is that those picks should come with added value, so it's not Lance is better than Fields, but Lance plus premium picks are similar risks to Fields.  But on a pure evaluation basis, I'd be shocked if Fields is not the No. 2 guy.  

My prediction:  Fields runs a fast 40 during his pro-day, and we get the "Well, that pro-day absolutely changed some minds" turnarounds soon.  I just feel like it's a set up to pivot later.

I hope you are right because the thought of the Jets picking Wilson over Fields is incredibly nauseating to me. 

[jvill 51]

30 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I hope you are right because the thought of the Jets picking Wilson over Fields is incredibly nauseating to me. 

It’s been said before here, but it does feel a lot like what happened with Watson. People just overthought it and nit picked it to death. I will say I do think Wilson is a good prospect and I don’t agree with the Trubisky comparison. I never understood Trubisky’s rise and wanted nothing to do with him on the Jets, while I’d be ok with Wilson. My main objection would be, like you said, taking him over Fields.

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, JiF said:

It would be shocking to me that once teams see how ridiculous of physical specimen he is and then they have a chance to test that Ivy league brain, that Wilson will remain the clear #2.  I'm sorry, you cant earnestly put these 2 kids side by side and say, yeah, I'll take the soft little unathletic dude who played nobodies, who is injury ridded and has all sorts of flaws in his game.  Like I get it right now because hot takes and click bait but your a Head Coach, you have both these dudes in camp and you put those 2 kids side by side and have them run all the same sh*t at the same speed vs. the same comp., GTFO here you're walking away like, oh yeah, Wilson is the guy.  Maybe 1 Kirby Smart type moron out of 10 falls in love with the arm and ignores the rest.  Hell, I'd bet every penny I have that if Sitake had Fields and Wilson in the program at the same time, Wilson would be following the portal transfer system to another team.

But then again, we saw Mitch Trubisky go before Watson/Mahomes for legitimately, no apparent reason.  So who knows, I think by in large the scouting communities and team scouts, legit have no clue what they're looking at or trying to find in a QB these days.  For me it's simple; look at the NFL.  Who are the best QB's?  You see 1 common theme, freakish ability.  Wilson has nothing freakish about him, I'll say it again; he's Mitch and Manziel wrapped into Drew Lock.

I can't think of one area where Wilson is better.  

Arm? Maybe, maybe not..  Wilson's arm is stronger, but I think it's deceptive to go after pure arm strength.  Part of the issues with Geno Smith stemmed from the fact he didn't know how to put trajectory on the ball.  I see Fields having very good arm strength, but knowing more about angles and trajectory than Wilson. 

Mobility? No

Competition? Lol

Film? No

Stats? No

Health? No.  It's especially concerning when the injury is a throwing shoulder.  

I think Wilson's rise is more based on the issue that most top end prospects face during draft time, in that the negatives are much more easily highlighted.  Watson was trashed during the process completely, and the throwing MPH was the cherry on top.  

I think the theme with the NFL is going much more towards the mobile guy that can actually present a threat running.  It's actually one of the reasons why I'm a bit scared of Lawrence, because his running style (especially with a shoulder surgery) is much more like a power runner, which won't work in the NFL.  Even Josh Allen knows to try and avoid hits.  I think that's what makes Mahomes/Watson so dangerous (Rodgers too) because they can beat you deep, while actually providing a scrambling option.  

 

 

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

I hope you are right because the thought of the Jets picking Wilson over Fields is incredibly nauseating to me. 

In the end, I don't think Wilson will go above Fields.  But yeah, picking Wilson over Fields seems like a mistake.  

[jvill 51]

Thought this was interesting, and I do I agree that it backs up the film:

[section314]

12 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

Thought this was interesting, and I do I agree that it backs up the film:

So, based on this, 1) Fields 2) Wilson 3) Lawrence and Lance 3-4th rd?

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, win4ever said:

I can't think of one area where Wilson is better.  

Arm? Maybe, maybe not..  Wilson's arm is stronger, but I think it's deceptive to go after pure arm strength.  Part of the issues with Geno Smith stemmed from the fact he didn't know how to put trajectory on the ball.  I see Fields having very good arm strength, but knowing more about angles and trajectory than Wilson. 

Mobility? No

Competition? Lol

Film? No

Stats? No

Health? No.  It's especially concerning when the injury is a throwing shoulder.  

I think Wilson's rise is more based on the issue that most top end prospects face during draft time, in that the negatives are much more easily highlighted.  Watson was trashed during the process completely, and the throwing MPH was the cherry on top.  

I think the theme with the NFL is going much more towards the mobile guy that can actually present a threat running.  It's actually one of the reasons why I'm a bit scared of Lawrence, because his running style (especially with a shoulder surgery) is much more like a power runner, which won't work in the NFL.  Even Josh Allen knows to try and avoid hits.  I think that's what makes Mahomes/Watson so dangerous (Rodgers too) because they can beat you deep, while actually providing a scrambling option.  

I think there arm is comparable, Wilson probably throws a better fastball but I dont think it's by much and I dont think it matters.  Like you said, the whole MPH thingy with Watson.  So ridiculous for many reasons.  And like you said, I think Fields understands angles and trajectory much better.  Both can throw the 2nd base side arm off platform stuff,  Wilson's comes out a little hotter when he does.  Fields ball placement is better, so I think he has better touch but I think you're splitting hairs ultimately.  Fields throws one of the best long balls I've ever seen at the college level and clearly the allure to Wilson is his arm.

The biggest differentiator that I see is just that Fields has all that but everything is quiet and in rhythm.  Wilson when he really needs to put something under it, starts from below his waste, double heel clicks and then goes...not sure he's going to have that luxury vs. real teams.  He was throwing from, no joke, the cleanest pockets I've ever seen watching a prospect.   Only other Qb I can remember who had similar pockets was Mayfield. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, jvill 51 said:

Thought this was interesting, and I do I agree that it backs up the film:

Once again, and not trying to be a look at me, but this is exactly what I've been saying for literally, a year.  Fields is the best passer in the draft...and Lawrence has some down field accuracy issues that are concerning. 

[jvill 51]

11 minutes ago, JiF said:

Once again, and not trying to be a look at me, but this is exactly what I've been saying for literally, a year.  Fields is the best passer in the draft...and Lawrence has some down field accuracy issues that are concerning. 

I agree with you. Also, it’s preposterous that anyone would ever accuse you of going all “look at me”. Not your style.

[JustInFudge]

Just now, jvill 51 said:

I agree with you. Also, it’s preposterous that anyone would ever accuse you of going all “look at me”. Not your style.

Well yeah but in that instance, I really wasnt trying to be.  

lol

[maury77]

I think there arm is comparable, Wilson probably throws a better fastball but I dont think it's by much and I dont think it matters.  Like you said, the whole MPH thingy with Watson.  So ridiculous for many reasons.  And like you said, I think Fields understands angles and trajectory much better.  Both can throw the 2nd base side arm off platform stuff,  Wilson's comes out a little hotter when he does.  Fields ball placement is better, so I think he has better touch but I think you're splitting hairs ultimately.  Fields throws one of the best long balls I've ever seen at the college level and clearly the allure to Wilson is his arm.
The biggest differentiator that I see is just that Fields has all that but everything is quiet and in rhythm.  Wilson when he really needs to put something under it, starts from below his waste, double heel clicks and then goes...not sure he's going to have that luxury vs. real teams.  He was throwing from, no joke, the cleanest pockets I've ever seen watching a prospect.   Only other Qb I can remember who had similar pockets was Mayfield. 

I’m going to disagree with you and Win because I think Wilson’s arm is overrated. It’s good, but a lot of his long passes die at the end.


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[jvill 51]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

So, based on this, 1) Fields 2) Wilson 3) Lawrence and Lance 3-4th rd?

Based on just those raw numbers sure, but I don’t think it’s quite that simple in reality, especially this year where the sample sizes are so different (and in Lance’s case are based off 2019, his first and only season as a starter) due to COVID.

[TheMo]

Basically if JD picks fields over Wilson and it doesn’t work out in his favor I can understand it. He made a very logical choice. If he makes the inverse decision and it backfires, I’d want him canned. Heck even if they both end up being good I would disagree with the choice he made based off the data. It would definitely shake my confidence in him as a GM. Competition, consistency, athleticism, durability, production. Those all are in fields’ favor. Also the reads thing makes no sense whatsoever when you look at his all-22 (spoiler alert with Covid happening and the mrs stuck in a different state I get to be the fool who watches all-22 on a quiet Saturday evening by myself...I’m fine! Stop asking! *sips whiskey while gently weeping*). I legit had someone on the main board try to say that him going through his reads was predetermined by the scheme and it wasn’t him actually doing it. Think it was football guy or someone else can’t be sure. I mean what in the actual **** are people thinking. This is tinfoil hat kind of stuff and makes me laugh at these NFL experts. As a physician I actually get a moment to do something similar to what they do and I can only think how dense these dudes are to have been messing up this stuff. Everything is probability but man do these people eff up this draft game. Wilson is significantly lower probability to be better than Fields. Notice I didn’t say impossible. But if you drafted a Wilson guy every year and I drafted the fields equivalent I think my cohort would win over time. And that’s the thought process JD should be having if he’s worth his salt. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, TheMo said:

Basically if JD picks fields over Wilson and it doesn’t work out in his favor I can understand it. He made a very logical choice. If he makes the inverse decision and it backfires, I’d want him canned. Heck even if they both end up being good I would disagree with the choice he made based off the data. It would definitely shake my confidence in him as a GM. Competition, consistency, athleticism, durability, production. Those all are in fields’ favor. Also the reads thing makes no sense whatsoever when you look at his all-22 (spoiler alert with Covid happening and the mrs stuck in a different state I get to be the fool who watches all-22 on a quiet Saturday evening by myself...I’m fine! Stop asking! *sips whiskey while gently weeping*). I legit had someone on the main board try to say that him going through his reads was predetermined by the scheme and it wasn’t him actually doing it. Think it was football guy or someone else can’t be sure. I mean what in the actual **** are people thinking. This is tinfoil hat kind of stuff and makes me laugh at these NFL experts. As a physician I actually get a moment to do something similar to what they do and I can only think how dense these dudes are to have been messing up this stuff. Everything is probability but man do these people eff up this draft game. Wilson is significantly lower probability to be better than Fields. Notice I didn’t say impossible. But if you drafted a Wilson guy every year and I drafted the fields equivalent I think my cohort would win over time. And that’s the thought process JD should be having if he’s worth his salt. 

To come at it from another professional angle (attorney), as someone who assesses risk on a daily basis, I just see so many red flags with Wilson. I think my track record on figuring out who is going to be a good player is spotty, but I feel I'm pretty accurate when figuring out who is going to bust. 

 

[TheMo]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

To come at it from another professional angle (attorney), as someone who assesses risk on a daily basis, I just see so many red flags with Wilson. I think my track record on figuring out who is going to be a good player is spotty, but I feel I'm pretty accurate when figuring out who is going to bust. 

 

Bingo. It’s a probability game. Law is based on mathematical logic concepts so your thought process makes sense to me in context now. Nothing is technically impossible but low probability paths are not the way to develop consistent success. The NFL still hasn’t really figured it out but it makes sense given their general opposition to most forms of analytics. 

[win4ever]

8 hours ago, JiF said:

I think there arm is comparable, Wilson probably throws a better fastball but I dont think it's by much and I dont think it matters.  Like you said, the whole MPH thingy with Watson.  So ridiculous for many reasons.  And like you said, I think Fields understands angles and trajectory much better.  Both can throw the 2nd base side arm off platform stuff,  Wilson's comes out a little hotter when he does.  Fields ball placement is better, so I think he has better touch but I think you're splitting hairs ultimately.  Fields throws one of the best long balls I've ever seen at the college level and clearly the allure to Wilson is his arm.

The biggest differentiator that I see is just that Fields has all that but everything is quiet and in rhythm.  Wilson when he really needs to put something under it, starts from below his waste, double heel clicks and then goes...not sure he's going to have that luxury vs. real teams.  He was throwing from, no joke, the cleanest pockets I've ever seen watching a prospect.   Only other Qb I can remember who had similar pockets was Mayfield. 

Yeah, I think those angles are so much important when it comes to deep passes, because we want receivers to stack the defender.  

Yeah, his pressure rate was ridiculously low, and when he did face pressure, he became mediocre.  I'm going to attach another play from the Navy game, so it'll be at the bottom of this post.  

WTF is this defense?  They are in man cover it looks like, and the slot defender moves with the slot receiver.  Yet halfway through, he lets someone know of a handoff, and falls back in line.  There's literally no one guarding this receiver.  This type of Navy defense makes me want to invest in a nuclear bunker.  This is the level of competition he's thriving against.  The play is set up to be a screen (would be a penalty in the NFL for ineligible downfield) on 3rd and goal from the 10.  

Yeah, and I think a clean pocket elevates your arm as well.  If you look at the Clemson game, with the bomb to Olave in the 3rd quarter, Fields has to sidestep a rusher and then fire it down the field like 55 yards.  Wilson basically has like a force field around him, where he doesn't even have to worry about launch angles.  Sort of like long punts that get blocked because you can't just launch it at a lesser angle.  

I'm going to post a second clip as well, this one is against Troy.  Mainly, I'm doing this one because all 11 defenders are visible from the start so quasi All-22.

I think this is a good example of not understanding defensive shells.  The play starts with a single middle field safety.  The defense is bringing the second safety down to bracket 18 with a cornerback.  When 18 goes in motion, the CB hands him off, so the natural adjustment here is the middle field safety taking over coverage for 18, and the box safety rolling out towards the middle of the field.  Instead, the box safety stays in the box basically making this cover 0.  If you are a ninja processor like Wilson is touted to be, as soon as the middle field safety abandons his area, the post route is your first read.  If that is well covered (which in this instance would have been inside leverage from the CB), you check down to 18 for the easy gain.  Look at the outside receiver, he's blown by the defender by the time Wilson turns around, there's no one else down the field to block this play.  This is taking advantage of pressure and processing quickly.  Instead, he looks at that route, comes off it, winds up for his check down route, only to pull back because there is a guy near his face, retreats and throws it away.  

A terrible play by by the defense, which left both of WIlson's options wide open, which he turned into a throw-away while having about 4 seconds to throw the ball.  This is what concerns me the most, if you can't function without a perfectly clear pocket, how are you transitioning to the NFL?

8 hours ago, maury77 said:

I’m going to disagree with you and Win because I think Wilson’s arm is overrated. It’s good, but a lot of his long passes die at the end.


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I would have loved to see him throw at the combine.  

 

6 hours ago, TheMo said:

Basically if JD picks fields over Wilson and it doesn’t work out in his favor I can understand it. He made a very logical choice. If he makes the inverse decision and it backfires, I’d want him canned. Heck even if they both end up being good I would disagree with the choice he made based off the data. It would definitely shake my confidence in him as a GM. Competition, consistency, athleticism, durability, production. Those all are in fields’ favor. Also the reads thing makes no sense whatsoever when you look at his all-22 (spoiler alert with Covid happening and the mrs stuck in a different state I get to be the fool who watches all-22 on a quiet Saturday evening by myself...I’m fine! Stop asking! *sips whiskey while gently weeping*). I legit had someone on the main board try to say that him going through his reads was predetermined by the scheme and it wasn’t him actually doing it. Think it was football guy or someone else can’t be sure. I mean what in the actual **** are people thinking. This is tinfoil hat kind of stuff and makes me laugh at these NFL experts. As a physician I actually get a moment to do something similar to what they do and I can only think how dense these dudes are to have been messing up this stuff. Everything is probability but man do these people eff up this draft game. Wilson is significantly lower probability to be better than Fields. Notice I didn’t say impossible. But if you drafted a Wilson guy every year and I drafted the fields equivalent I think my cohort would win over time. And that’s the thought process JD should be having if he’s worth his salt. 

I completely agree, I think a lot of fans just go based on media narratives.  I can see why people like Wilson, especially because he is aggressive down the field, and chicks dig the long ball.  The issue is that Bryce Petty had a strong arm and threw it down the field as well.  You can get away with it in the right system/talent inefficiency.  I think the most telling aspect with any QB is their ability to thrive under pressure, because that tests your ability to quickly process information.  Wilson gets demonstrably worse as he faces pressure.  

I didn't think Josh Allen would turn out to be a stud, but I was wrong.  But for every Allen, there are a bunch of Hanckenberg/Lynch/Kizer running around.  Could Wilson turn out to be a stud? Sure.  But the odds favor Fields by a fair margin.  I get Wilson if you are picking a bit later in the draft, and you just have to take a risk because the less risky guys don't fall, but not at 2.  

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

To come at it from another professional angle (attorney), as someone who assesses risk on a daily basis, I just see so many red flags with Wilson. I think my track record on figuring out who is going to be a good player is spotty, but I feel I'm pretty accurate when figuring out who is going to bust. 

 

The risks on Wilson are so massive:

1.  Injury history, especially to the shoulder.  Quite possibly the worst area to have an injury history when your main calling card is your arm.  

2.  Inferior competition, basically played a cupcake schedule.  

3.  One year wonder, that coincided with cupcake schedule and Covid.  

4.  His sophomore season is just glossed over, like it doesn't matter.  Sucked against Power 5 teams, but that's whatever.  Fields without his 1 and 3 WRs and a thumb injury against NW?  A microcosm of his NFL future! Wilson? Eh, he was recovering all year.  

5.  Red flags all over with his production under pressure.   

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, I think those angles are so much important when it comes to deep passes, because we want receivers to stack the defender.  

Yeah, his pressure rate was ridiculously low, and when he did face pressure, he became mediocre.  I'm going to attach another play from the Navy game, so it'll be at the bottom of this post.  

WTF is this defense?  They are in man cover it looks like, and the slot defender moves with the slot receiver.  Yet halfway through, he lets someone know of a handoff, and falls back in line.  There's literally no one guarding this receiver.  This type of Navy defense makes me want to invest in a nuclear bunker.  This is the level of competition he's thriving against.  The play is set up to be a screen (would be a penalty in the NFL for ineligible downfield) on 3rd and goal from the 10.  

Yeah, and I think a clean pocket elevates your arm as well.  If you look at the Clemson game, with the bomb to Olave in the 3rd quarter, Fields has to sidestep a rusher and then fire it down the field like 55 yards.  Wilson basically has like a force field around him, where he doesn't even have to worry about launch angles.  Sort of like long punts that get blocked because you can't just launch it at a lesser angle.  

I'm going to post a second clip as well, this one is against Troy.  Mainly, I'm doing this one because all 11 defenders are visible from the start so quasi All-22.

I think this is a good example of not understanding defensive shells.  The play starts with a single middle field safety.  The defense is bringing the second safety down to bracket 18 with a cornerback.  When 18 goes in motion, the CB hands him off, so the natural adjustment here is the middle field safety taking over coverage for 18, and the box safety rolling out towards the middle of the field.  Instead, the box safety stays in the box basically making this cover 0.  If you are a ninja processor like Wilson is touted to be, as soon as the middle field safety abandons his area, the post route is your first read.  If that is well covered (which in this instance would have been inside leverage from the CB), you check down to 18 for the easy gain.  Look at the outside receiver, he's blown by the defender by the time Wilson turns around, there's no one else down the field to block this play.  This is taking advantage of pressure and processing quickly.  Instead, he looks at that route, comes off it, winds up for his check down route, only to pull back because there is a guy near his face, retreats and throws it away.  

A terrible play by by the defense, which left both of WIlson's options wide open, which he turned into a throw-away while having about 4 seconds to throw the ball.  This is what concerns me the most, if you can't function without a perfectly clear pocket, how are you transitioning to the NFL?

I would have loved to see him throw at the combine.  

 

I completely agree, I think a lot of fans just go based on media narratives.  I can see why people like Wilson, especially because he is aggressive down the field, and chicks dig the long ball.  The issue is that Bryce Petty had a strong arm and threw it down the field as well.  You can get away with it in the right system/talent inefficiency.  I think the most telling aspect with any QB is their ability to thrive under pressure, because that tests your ability to quickly process information.  Wilson gets demonstrably worse as he faces pressure.  

I didn't think Josh Allen would turn out to be a stud, but I was wrong.  But for every Allen, there are a bunch of Hanckenberg/Lynch/Kizer running around.  Could Wilson turn out to be a stud? Sure.  But the odds favor Fields by a fair margin.  I get Wilson if you are picking a bit later in the draft, and you just have to take a risk because the less risky guys don't fall, but not at 2.  

The risks on Wilson are so massive:

1.  Injury history, especially to the shoulder.  Quite possibly the worst area to have an injury history when your main calling card is your arm.  

2.  Inferior competition, basically played a cupcake schedule.  

3.  One year wonder, that coincided with cupcake schedule and Covid.  

4.  His sophomore season is just glossed over, like it doesn't matter.  Sucked against Power 5 teams, but that's whatever.  Fields without his 1 and 3 WRs and a thumb injury against NW?  A microcosm of his NFL future! Wilson? Eh, he was recovering all year.  

5.  Red flags all over with his production under pressure.   

The guy has had torn labrums in both shoulders at the ripe old age of 21

 

But yeah lots of highlight facing Reno Community College

[kdels62]

5 hours ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, I think those angles are so much important when it comes to deep passes, because we want receivers to stack the defender.  

Yeah, his pressure rate was ridiculously low, and when he did face pressure, he became mediocre.  I'm going to attach another play from the Navy game, so it'll be at the bottom of this post.  

WTF is this defense?  They are in man cover it looks like, and the slot defender moves with the slot receiver.  Yet halfway through, he lets someone know of a handoff, and falls back in line.  There's literally no one guarding this receiver.  This type of Navy defense makes me want to invest in a nuclear bunker.  This is the level of competition he's thriving against.  The play is set up to be a screen (would be a penalty in the NFL for ineligible downfield) on 3rd and goal from the 10.  

Yeah, and I think a clean pocket elevates your arm as well.  If you look at the Clemson game, with the bomb to Olave in the 3rd quarter, Fields has to sidestep a rusher and then fire it down the field like 55 yards.  Wilson basically has like a force field around him, where he doesn't even have to worry about launch angles.  Sort of like long punts that get blocked because you can't just launch it at a lesser angle.  

I'm going to post a second clip as well, this one is against Troy.  Mainly, I'm doing this one because all 11 defenders are visible from the start so quasi All-22.

I think this is a good example of not understanding defensive shells.  The play starts with a single middle field safety.  The defense is bringing the second safety down to bracket 18 with a cornerback.  When 18 goes in motion, the CB hands him off, so the natural adjustment here is the middle field safety taking over coverage for 18, and the box safety rolling out towards the middle of the field.  Instead, the box safety stays in the box basically making this cover 0.  If you are a ninja processor like Wilson is touted to be, as soon as the middle field safety abandons his area, the post route is your first read.  If that is well covered (which in this instance would have been inside leverage from the CB), you check down to 18 for the easy gain.  Look at the outside receiver, he's blown by the defender by the time Wilson turns around, there's no one else down the field to block this play.  This is taking advantage of pressure and processing quickly.  Instead, he looks at that route, comes off it, winds up for his check down route, only to pull back because there is a guy near his face, retreats and throws it away.  

A terrible play by by the defense, which left both of WIlson's options wide open, which he turned into a throw-away while having about 4 seconds to throw the ball.  This is what concerns me the most, if you can't function without a perfectly clear pocket, how are you transitioning to the NFL?

I would have loved to see him throw at the combine.  

 

I completely agree, I think a lot of fans just go based on media narratives.  I can see why people like Wilson, especially because he is aggressive down the field, and chicks dig the long ball.  The issue is that Bryce Petty had a strong arm and threw it down the field as well.  You can get away with it in the right system/talent inefficiency.  I think the most telling aspect with any QB is their ability to thrive under pressure, because that tests your ability to quickly process information.  Wilson gets demonstrably worse as he faces pressure.  

I didn't think Josh Allen would turn out to be a stud, but I was wrong.  But for every Allen, there are a bunch of Hanckenberg/Lynch/Kizer running around.  Could Wilson turn out to be a stud? Sure.  But the odds favor Fields by a fair margin.  I get Wilson if you are picking a bit later in the draft, and you just have to take a risk because the less risky guys don't fall, but not at 2.  

The risks on Wilson are so massive:

1.  Injury history, especially to the shoulder.  Quite possibly the worst area to have an injury history when your main calling card is your arm.  

2.  Inferior competition, basically played a cupcake schedule.  

3.  One year wonder, that coincided with cupcake schedule and Covid.  

4.  His sophomore season is just glossed over, like it doesn't matter.  Sucked against Power 5 teams, but that's whatever.  Fields without his 1 and 3 WRs and a thumb injury against NW?  A microcosm of his NFL future! Wilson? Eh, he was recovering all year.  

5.  Red flags all over with his production under pressure.   

He throws a touchdown on the same play call later on in the game. Sorry he missed a read. Also sorry there’s a weird college play run by a college team. 

[kdels62]

This is why all of this QB talk is just foolish. Clean pocket, and 2 yards of separation by 1 of 2 first round receivers from next years draft. Somehow the narratives have made me dislike what is a simply great throw by a prospect that I really like.

[maury77]

I've started to wonder if Fields pro prospects would have fared better if he stayed at Georgia. I'm attaching film from his freshman year and you see his process appear faster than it does at Ohio State and Georgia appeared to feature his running more. 

 

[section314]

10 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I've started to wonder if Fields pro prospects would have fared better if he stayed at Georgia. I'm attaching film from his freshman year and you see his process appear faster than it does at Ohio State and Georgia appeared to feature his running more. 

 

Wasn't Shotty the OC his freshman year?

[maury77]

Wasn't Shotty the OC his freshman year?

Shotty was in Seattle in 2018


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[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, kdels62 said:

This is why all of this QB talk is just foolish. Clean pocket, and 2 yards of separation by 1 of 2 first round receivers from next years draft. Somehow the narratives have made me dislike what is a simply great throw by a prospect that I really like.

Seems like more of your problem.  There is nothing not to like about that play.  

[kdels62]

47 minutes ago, JiF said:

Seems like more of your problem.  There is nothing not to like about that play.  

Love the play. Hate the narrative. Nothing about that play “shows quick processing.” 

[win4ever]

7 hours ago, kdels62 said:

He throws a touchdown on the same play call later on in the game. Sorry he missed a read. Also sorry there’s a weird college play run by a college team. 

Yeah, he does basically throw a TD on the same play later in the game, when he makes the post read.  The issue isn't that he doesn't make reads, it's that he makes the wrong reads just like every college QB coming out.  This narrative that he's a great processor is completely false, because these reads are made easier by the defense.  On that TD, and on the play I highlighted, a disciplined defense has to rotate to at least a middle field safety.  Instead, in both instances the safety is caught off-guard by late motion, which causes the defense to basically defend nothing.  

I'm not arguing against his stats or his production this year because the numbers are there.  My argument against him is that it doesn't matter if he's reading at slow pace because the level of competition makes reads easier.  

[Dinamite]

23 hours ago, jvill 51 said:

Thought this was interesting, and I do I agree that it backs up the film:

For context, here is the same stats for the last few drafts.  In hindsight, surprising Sam was such a highly touted prospect with these numbers.

 

 

https://twitter.com/NFLFilmStudy/status/1252433936082325510?s=20

[Dinamite]

The picture didn't copy before, but here it is.

[win4ever]

57 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Love the play. Hate the narrative. Nothing about that play “shows quick processing.” 

I think it shows good processing, but again, I'm going with the caveat that all of the QBs in the class need to improve processing.  

The first thing to note is that Clemson is showing a false slot CB blitz, before dropping back into zone.  The safety directly over the slot usually indicates a corner blitz, and the guy even fakes running towards the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State is aware of it, because the RB moves across the formation to try and pick up the blitz if it came.  The read on the play is the quick TE out route, then a high low read based on the safeties.  If the safety falls back, the crossing route in the middle, if the safety is caught in the middle or up towards the crossing route then the deep post.  The other route at the bottom of the screen is just a clear out.  It's the timing of the progressions, because the TE out route breaks first and that's where Fields is looking.  It wouldn't make sense to look at the post route now because it's not at the stem.  Could he hit that route? I think so, but there is a LB that might be coming downhill.  When he moves to the secondary read, he's looking at the safety, and that makes his read.  It's not quite as fast because he does have to take a side step here to avoid a rusher, and then launch it.  

Now there are outside factors here that help Fields.  He is leading in the game, and his best WR is running the post route.  Therefore, he can take more chances with the football.  On this play, the second safety gets held by the slot receiver because OSU runs a plethora of 4 verts, but that's still a good read.  

 

[win4ever]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/kellen.blumberg#!/vizhome/NFLQBDraftProspectAnalysis/QBDashboard


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[JustInFudge]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Love the play. Hate the narrative. Nothing about that play “shows quick processing.” 

I figured he meant the game in general but sure. 

[kdels62]

3 hours ago, win4ever said:

I think it shows good processing, but again, I'm going with the caveat that all of the QBs in the class need to improve processing.  

The first thing to note is that Clemson is showing a false slot CB blitz, before dropping back into zone.  The safety directly over the slot usually indicates a corner blitz, and the guy even fakes running towards the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State is aware of it, because the RB moves across the formation to try and pick up the blitz if it came.  The read on the play is the quick TE out route, then a high low read based on the safeties.  If the safety falls back, the crossing route in the middle, if the safety is caught in the middle or up towards the crossing route then the deep post.  The other route at the bottom of the screen is just a clear out.  It's the timing of the progressions, because the TE out route breaks first and that's where Fields is looking.  It wouldn't make sense to look at the post route now because it's not at the stem.  Could he hit that route? I think so, but there is a LB that might be coming downhill.  When he moves to the secondary read, he's looking at the safety, and that makes his read.  It's not quite as fast because he does have to take a side step here to avoid a rusher, and then launch it.  

Now there are outside factors here that help Fields.  He is leading in the game, and his best WR is running the post route.  Therefore, he can take more chances with the football.  On this play, the second safety gets held by the slot receiver because OSU runs a plethora of 4 verts, but that's still a good read.  

 

I agree with everything except the quick part. He makes a great read but he has about 4 seconds to make a decision and throw and he spends most of that time staring at Olave. Everything about that play is why I love Fields (great feet, great arm, accuracy) but citing quick processing and showing that play tells me the analysis is more about narratives than actual play.
 

3 hours ago, Dinamite said:

The picture didn't copy before, but here it is.

I didn’t like Sam Darnold coming out and now it just seems obvious.

Also Josh Allen is such a friggin outlier holy sh*t.

[maury77]

42 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I agree with everything except the quick part. He makes a great read but he has about 4 seconds to make a decision and throw and he spends most of that time staring at Olave. Everything about that play is why I love Fields (great feet, great arm, accuracy) but citing quick processing and showing that play tells me the analysis is more about narratives than actual play.
 

I didn’t like Sam Darnold coming out and now it just seems obvious.

Also Josh Allen is such a friggin outlier holy sh*t.

Justin Herbert looks like an outlier too. 

[win4ever]

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[TheMo]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Justin Herbert looks like an outlier too. 

To me Herbert isn’t an outlier but rather a failure of analysis. Lot of BS alpha male stuff circulated around him. Really the evidence pointed to an excellent QB prospect with a lot of a good film playing against good college competition. 
 

This off-season and last have been great for me as a fan because it has finally illustrated to me that the decision makers and talking heads are really bad at their jobs. I feel like you and I have better takes not because we’re so much smarter but rather we are consistent with our application of judgements and interpretations of data. There has to be logic applied to situations and too often this time of the year there is a lot of “gut feeling” BS that leads to stupid mistakes. The draft isn’t a crapshoot. The GMs in the NFL are just crap on the whole. 

[win4ever]

I didn’t like Sam Darnold coming out and now it just seems obvious.
Also Josh Allen is such a friggin outlier holy sh*t.

I don't think I've ever been as wrong on someone like Allen. Other than top tier physical tools, he had nothing on tape or stats.

I think it talks more about how they went about developing the QB position. Solidifying the OL, getting a true No. 1 guy, and working the offense around his strength.