The QB Thread

[maury77]

I’ve listened to this explanation and I think Chris Simms literally watched the Northwestern game and no other Fields tape. His analysis about accuracy is awful and not backed up by any analytics. He really thinks Darnold was better in the pocket than Fields? Give me a break.


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[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

I would agree that Wilson gets the ball out faster than Fields and that Wilson makes more anticipatory throws. Would you also agree that Fields is significantly more athletic, bigger, player against better CBs and was a more consistent performer over 3 years than Wilson?

I would agree with that though I would say he is more athletic not significantly more athletic. I still think Wilson is solidly in the plus athleticism area for NFL QBs.. it will be interesting to see just how much bigger he is as from the videos I have seen of them together they look similar in size to my eye. On tape Fields this previous year definitely looked bigger. He did face better CBs but he also had better weapons. And not all CBs even in the top schools are future NFL players.

Greg Cossell said that in the choice between Wilson and Fields it comes down to skills versus traits.

If you want a QB with better skills at throwing the football it's Wilson.

If you are looking for traits, and thinking that will translate to upside, then Fields

For me since I would put Wilson still in the +side of athleticism I would say speed of release, anticipation, accuracy >>more athletic, bigger and higher level of competition. I guess you view it the other way.

I would choose Rodgers over Lamar Jackson every day of the week

In terms of the competition element, it  has been shown over and over again that is really not highly predictive. Top level prospects from big schools and small schools have about the same success/failure ration. As Simms says "a throw is a throw"

I do not profess to be some fantastic draft analysts but I have a pretty decent record since I started really diving in. I hated Rosen, liked Sam, LOVED Mahomes, did not like Watson much (missed on that one), liked Mayfield but mostly because I thought he would be better than Allen and we would have no chance at Darnold, liked Herbert a lot hated Bortles and Trubisky and Wentz (seemed like a miss by me but who knows with him). One QB I really really liked that never got a shot was Kyle Sloter.

One note on Fields. Part of why I do not like him is that I notice a trait he shares with Darnold. It is not really a release issues, anticipation, or speed of release but something separate to my eye. When Darnold plays he has a fast release, and sometimes good anticipation but on a ton of throws after he has made his read and even started the process of throwing there is like this minute pause like a final "is he open? Yes he is!! throw" question. And at NFL speeds that hurts him. It might be a 1/10 of a second but you don't see it with great passers like Rodgers. Mahomes, Brady or Kurt Warner who let it go as fast as anyone ever. I see it every once in a while with Brees so maybe it is not the kiss of death, but it is there with Fields. Wilson in terms of "see" time to release is up there with Rodgers and Warner.

[maury77]

11 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I would agree with that though I would say he is more athletic not significantly more athletic. I still think Wilson is solidly in the plus athleticism area for NFL QBs.. it will be interesting to see just how much bigger he is as from the videos I have seen of them together they look similar in size to my eye. On tape Fields this previous year definitely looked bigger. He did face better CBs but he also had better weapons. And not all CBs even in the top schools are future NFL players.

Greg Cossell said that in the choice between Wilson and Fields it comes down to skills versus traits.

If you want a QB with better skills at throwing the football it's Wilson.

If you are looking for traits, and thinking that will translate to upside, then Fields

For me since I would put Wilson still in the +side of athleticism I would say speed of release, anticipation, accuracy >>more athletic, bigger and higher level of competition. I guess you view it the other way.

I would choose Rodgers over Lamar Jackson every day of the week

In terms of the competition element, it  has been shown over and over again that is really not highly predictive. Top level prospects from big schools and small schools have about the same success/failure ration. As Simms says "a throw is a throw"

I do not profess to be some fantastic draft analysts but I have a pretty decent record since I started really diving in. I hated Rosen, liked Sam, LOVED Mahomes, did not like Watson much (missed on that one), liked Mayfield but mostly because I thought he would be better than Allen and we would have no chance at Darnold, liked Herbert a lot hated Bortles and Trubisky and Wentz (seemed like a miss by me but who knows with him). One QB I really really liked that never got a shot was Kyle Sloter.

One note on Fields. Part of why I do not like him is that I notice a trait he shares with Darnold. It is not really a release issues, anticipation, or speed of release but something separate to my eye. When Darnold plays he has a fast release, and sometimes good anticipation but on a ton of throws after he has made his read and even started the process of throwing there is like this minute pause like a final "is he open? Yes he is!! throw" question. And at NFL speeds that hurts him. It might be a 1/10 of a second but you don't see it with great passers like Rodgers. Mahomes, Brady or Kurt Warner who let it go as fast as anyone ever. I see it every once in a while with Brees so maybe it is not the kiss of death, but it is there with Fields. Wilson in terms of "see" time to release is up there with Rodgers and Warner.

I'm going to disagree on the accuracy issue. 

Fields career comp % is 68.4% while Wilson is 67.6% (and yes, completion % is not the end all when it comes to accuracy, but I don't have access to PFF's advanced ball placement metrics. 

Again, its not about the level of competition per se with Wilson, its the play style. 

Watch Carson Wentz in this game. This is FCS level football, but you still see Wentz make NFL type throws and make smart decisions. He's not bailing the pocket at the first whiff of pressure or throwing YOLO deep shots while passing up easy 10-15 yard gains. Wentz could repeat what he was doing here in the NFL because of the type of decisions he was making. 

Now watch Manziel at Texas A&M (Wilson really looks like a similar player). 

Manziel's game was scrambling and running, but he ran a 4.68 when tested. Was he a big scrambling threat when he got to the pros? Kind of, but nowhere near what he was at the pros. What about the YOLO throws to Mike Evans? Yeah, they work great when you are throwing to Mike Evans, but when Manziel was throwing to different guys in Cleveland? Not so much. 

The question is how is your game going to translate to the NFL. To play successfully with Wilson's style, you have to be a freak like Mahomes and physically speaking (including arm strength), Wilson is a hell of a lot closer to Manziel than Mahomes. 

[JustInFudge]

11 hours ago, Philc1 said:

One read guys are gonna one read guy - don’t be shocked if Fields is there at 23

Stop trolling a good thread dude, seriously.  Take this sh*t to the main forum.  It's more fun there, people get way more triggered. 

[JustInFudge]

37 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Manziel's game was scrambling and running, but he ran a 4.68 when tested. Was he a big scrambling threat when he got to the pros? Kind of, but nowhere near what he was at the pros. What about the YOLO throws to Mike Evans? Yeah, they work great when you are throwing to Mike Evans, but when Manziel was throwing to different guys in Cleveland? Not so much. 

Scary how similar they look side by side. Change jerseys, legit, same exact dude.  wild

[maury77]

Scary how similar they look side by side. Change jerseys, legit, same exact dude.  wild

It’s uncanny. It’s not why I posted the Manziel video, but as I started watching, how could you not see it?


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[Philc1]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

I'm going to disagree on the accuracy issue. 

Fields career comp % is 68.4% while Wilson is 67.6% (and yes, completion % is not the end all when it comes to accuracy, but I don't have access to PFF's advanced ball placement metrics. 

Again, its not about the level of competition per se with Wilson, its the play style. 

Watch Carson Wentz in this game. This is FCS level football, but you still see Wentz make NFL type throws and make smart decisions. He's not bailing the pocket at the first whiff of pressure or throwing YOLO deep shots while passing up easy 10-15 yard gains. Wentz could repeat what he was doing here in the NFL because of the type of decisions he was making. 

Now watch Manziel at Texas A&M (Wilson really looks like a similar player). 

Manziel's game was scrambling and running, but he ran a 4.68 when tested. Was he a big scrambling threat when he got to the pros? Kind of, but nowhere near what he was at the pros. What about the YOLO throws to Mike Evans? Yeah, they work great when you are throwing to Mike Evans, but when Manziel was throwing to different guys in Cleveland? Not so much. 

The question is how is your game going to translate to the NFL. To play successfully with Wilson's style, you have to be a freak like Mahomes and physically speaking (including arm strength), Wilson is a hell of a lot closer to Manziel than Mahomes. 

Geno 71% completion percentage in college

[jvill 51]

20 hours ago, maury77 said:

 

 

 

I’ve listened to this explanation and I think Chris Simms literally watched the Northwestern game and no other Fields tape. His analysis about accuracy is awful and not backed up by any analytics. He really thinks Darnold was better in the pocket than Fields? Give me a break.


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I listen to that and its like we’re not even watching the same player

[maury77]

I listen to that and its like we’re not even watching the same player

Dude, this feels like a nightmare right now. I feel like Gary Vee I’m the Sanchez draft video


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[jvill 51]

5 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Dude, this feels like a nightmare right now. I feel like Gary Vee I’m the Sanchez draft video


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Certainly seems like we’re going with Wilson reading the tea leaves. I’m not as down on him as some others are around here, and if Fields wasn’t in the draft I think I’d probably be excited about the prospect of bringing in Wilson. But there’s undeniably things in Wilson’s game that scare me, and passing on Fields for him scares me even more. Hope I’m wrong if that’s the way we wind up going.

[kdels62]

20 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Dude, this feels like a nightmare right now. I feel like Gary Vee I’m the Sanchez draft video


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I’m feeling pretty good about it. 

[maury77]

Well, I just found an interesting nugget. 

https://qbcollective.com/

QB collective is a program designed to develop QBs from high school to the NFL. Guess who their cover guy is?

 

Guess who their coaches are?

 

The Shanahan and LaFleur family sure have had a long look at Fields. I'm surprised no one is mentioning this. 

[kdels62]

3 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Well, I just found an interesting nugget. 

https://qbcollective.com/

QB collective is a program designed to develop QBs from high school to the NFL. Guess who their cover guy is?

 

Guess who their coaches are?

 

The Shanahan and LaFleur family sure have had a long look at Fields. I'm surprised no one is mentioning this. 

But what if they (this coaching collective) pass on Fields at 2 and 3.

[maury77]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

But what if they (this coaching collective) pass on Fields at 2 and 3.

Then that reflects very poorly on Fields. 

[maury77]

46 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I’m feeling pretty good about it. 

I know and I know that this appears to be the 2% of the time that we don't agree, but I can't talk myself into it. I just hope I'm wrong. 

[kdels62]

1 minute ago, maury77 said:

Then that reflects very poorly on Fields. 

It’d be insane. I think it’s impossible but the “what if” is super interesting.

[JohnnyLV]

8 hours ago, maury77 said:

Dude, this feels like a nightmare right now. I feel like Gary Vee I’m the Sanchez draft video


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What video is that? Would be interested in seeing it.

 

[jetstream23]

Yeah, uhh... so now it seems there are some mock sites after today's BYU Pro Day that are increasing the variability that Wilson goes #1 overall.  I've done dozens of mocks and never had any where Lawrence was available at #2 until today.  Weird.

[Dinamite]

20 hours ago, maury77 said:

I know and I know that this appears to be the 2% of the time that we don't agree, but I can't talk myself into it. I just hope I'm wrong. 

I respect your opinion quite a bit and you have backed it up with substantial evidence and study.   I am pro-Fields and confused why he gets so much dislike in media/draftniks (and it will be funny if he ends up going to SF after people were saying he doesn't fit the scheme). Nevertheless, it looks like we are going Wilson.  If we removed the fact that they are skipping over Fields, can you say you would be excited about the Wilson pick? Or do you think it is a bad pick no matter what (i.e. do you rank him lower than other qbs beyond fields/lawrence)?

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Dinamite said:

I respect your opinion quite a bit and you have backed it up with substantial evidence and study.   I am pro-Fields and confused why he gets so much dislike in media/draftniks (and it will be funny if he ends up going to SF after people were saying he doesn't fit the scheme). Nevertheless, it looks like we are going Wilson.  If we removed the fact that they are skipping over Fields, can you say you would be excited about the Wilson pick? Or do you think it is a bad pick no matter what (i.e. do you rank him lower than other qbs beyond fields/lawrence)?

Thanks Dinamite. I honestly can't say I would be excited because I think he would be over drafted. I think for Wilson to work out, he'd have to sit for a while (maybe an entire season) and get picked off a lot in practice so he could figure out what you can do in the NFL vs. the types of defenses he faced in college. If he did that and became a wiser decision maker, I think he could become, at best, what you saw out of Mayfield this year: a guy you can win with but you won't win because of. That's fine (the Rams made it to the Super Bowl with Goff after all), but I'd prefer a more elite talent at the top of the draft. 

[TheMo]

2 hours ago, Dinamite said:

I respect your opinion quite a bit and you have backed it up with substantial evidence and study.   I am pro-Fields and confused why he gets so much dislike in media/draftniks (and it will be funny if he ends up going to SF after people were saying he doesn't fit the scheme). Nevertheless, it looks like we are going Wilson.  If we removed the fact that they are skipping over Fields, can you say you would be excited about the Wilson pick? Or do you think it is a bad pick no matter what (i.e. do you rank him lower than other qbs beyond fields/lawrence)?

I think it would be a bad pick overall. I just don’t like him very much as a prospect. I think the throws he made against lesser competition are the same ones that we ream darnold over. I think they become picks and sacks when the speed of the game increases. Maybe I’m wrong wouldn’t be the first or last time. Sorry know you were asking @maury77 but as you’ll see we see this in a similar light so I figured I’d chime in as well. I’d rather trade down than pick Wilson. For Fields I’d stay put. 
 

Also people are saying his athleticism isn’t a big deal. But the same ones gush over him rolling away from would be sacks. His game is predicated on some level of athleticism and so his 40 time matters. Wasn’t thrilled that he didn’t run. Also providing tape to show me isn’t quite the same if I’m a decision maker. A neutral measurement lets me understand if those escapes might end up being sacks in the NFL. 

[win4ever]

[maury77]

6 hours ago, win4ever said:

I'm almost at the stage where I'm willing to pay you for your Wilson review. 

[JohnnyLV]

10 hours ago, win4ever said:

Could you explain this graph? It sems to be saying that Zach Wilson played 2 STD deviations over expected? And that his team was a standard deviation better than average. Usually I would expect in graphs that top right corner is usually the best but I am not sure of that in this one. Alabama certainly had a far better supporting cast than BYU. Would love to hear the explanation. 

[Philc1]

On 3/25/2021 at 7:07 PM, maury77 said:

 

 

 

I’ve listened to this explanation and I think Chris Simms literally watched the Northwestern game and no other Fields tape. His analysis about accuracy is awful and not backed up by any analytics. He really thinks Darnold was better in the pocket than Fields? Give me a break.


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Anyone in the Ohio state system throwing to future nfl players is going to look good in college

 

It’s incredible how you guys think Simms is infallible regarding Wilson but suddenly he’s completely wrong about fields

[Philc1]

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Could you explain this graph? It sems to be saying that Zach Wilson played 2 STD deviations over expected? And that his team was a standard deviation better than average. Usually I would expect in graphs that top right corner is usually the best but I am not sure of that in this one. Alabama certainly had a far better supporting cast than BYU. Would love to hear the explanation. 

Depends.  Are Navy, Western Kentucky and Troy the benchmarks to evaluate #2 picks overall by?

[kdels62]

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Could you explain this graph? It sems to be saying that Zach Wilson played 2 STD deviations over expected? And that his team was a standard deviation better than average. Usually I would expect in graphs that top right corner is usually the best but I am not sure of that in this one. Alabama certainly had a far better supporting cast than BYU. Would love to hear the explanation. 

The main takeaway is that Trevor Lawrence is overrated. Also I do question the logic on Clemson’s offense being more talented than OSU’s. Olave, Wilson, Davis, Meyers, Ruckert are probably the 5 best players between the two offenses and they’re all on OSU.

[fullblast]

On 3/25/2021 at 8:04 PM, maury77 said:

I'm going to disagree on the accuracy issue. 

Fields career comp % is 68.4% while Wilson is 67.6% (and yes, completion % is not the end all when it comes to accuracy, but I don't have access to PFF's advanced ball placement metrics. 

Again, its not about the level of competition per se with Wilson, its the play style. 

Watch Carson Wentz in this game. This is FCS level football, but you still see Wentz make NFL type throws and make smart decisions. He's not bailing the pocket at the first whiff of pressure or throwing YOLO deep shots while passing up easy 10-15 yard gains. Wentz could repeat what he was doing here in the NFL because of the type of decisions he was making. 

Now watch Manziel at Texas A&M (Wilson really looks like a similar player). 

Manziel's game was scrambling and running, but he ran a 4.68 when tested. Was he a big scrambling threat when he got to the pros? Kind of, but nowhere near what he was at the pros. What about the YOLO throws to Mike Evans? Yeah, they work great when you are throwing to Mike Evans, but when Manziel was throwing to different guys in Cleveland? Not so much. 

The question is how is your game going to translate to the NFL. To play successfully with Wilson's style, you have to be a freak like Mahomes and physically speaking (including arm strength), Wilson is a hell of a lot closer to Manziel than Mahomes. 

Just watching some more Wilson and the clip below reminded me of this post. ?

 

[Peace Frog]

On 3/27/2021 at 1:35 AM, jetstream23 said:

Yeah, uhh... so now it seems there are some mock sites after today's BYU Pro Day that are increasing the variability that Wilson goes #1 overall.  I've done dozens of mocks and never had any where Lawrence was available at #2 until today.  Weird.

Is Creed Humphrey really going 3rd round?

To be honest, I’m ready to jump on him at 23, kick McGovern to guard and fix the damn line. 

Use the rest of the draft for edge CB WR and TE. 

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Peace Frog said:

Is Creed Humphrey really going 3rd round?

To be honest, I’m ready to jump on him at 23, kick McGovern to guard and fix the damn line. 

Use the rest of the draft for edge CB WR and TE. 

Yeah, he won't last past the 2nd round IMO.

I think the Jets are angling for either Humphrey or Wyatt Davis at #34 if they can pull it off.  #34 seems like an OLine spot for the Jets.  Could either be IOL or one of the second tier OTs like Teven Jenkins, etc.  I think Sewell, Slater and Vera-Tucker are long gone by the time #23 rolls around, although a trade up from #23 to grab one of them wouldn't be bad (Darnold + #23 to get into the Top 12 or so?)

[jetstream23]

19 hours ago, win4ever said:

So take Trask at #34?

?

 

[Peace Frog]

13 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Yeah, he won't last past the 2nd round IMO.

I think the Jets are angling for either Humphrey or Wyatt Davis at #34 if they can pull it off.  #34 seems like an OLine spot for the Jets.  Could either be IOL or one of the second tier OTs like Teven Jenkins, etc.  I think Sewell, Slater and Vera-Tucker are long gone by the time #23 rolls around, although a trade up from #23 to grab one of them wouldn't be bad (Darnold + #23 to get into the Top 12 or so?)

Yeah I don't want to drop any lower than 34 for the IOL and I really want that to be a Center.  

[JohnnyLV]

A stat for the Fields fans (a good one not a troll stat)

 

 

So Fields did play this year under significantly more pressure than Wilson and more than Lawrence, and Wilson did face less adversity. Still it's no zero for Wilson either.

[win4ever]

19 hours ago, maury77 said:

I'm almost at the stage where I'm willing to pay you for your Wilson review. 

Lol, it's coming along slowly, taking me forever to write it down.  I was going to get at least 1 knocked out Friday night, but took the vaccine and fell asleep before midnight lol.  

I have 6 done, about 9 more to go.  Talking to Phil about how he wants to release it, once a day, twice a day, and what order.  This is taking long enough that I probably won't do the Fields cut unless we pick him because I just can't find the time to break it down to the level I like within the next month.  

Here's some good news:  I got 2019 film on Wilson today.  So after I'm done with the 9-10 articles cut up, which shades fairly negative, and I expected to get blasted for it, I'm going to break down a couple 2019 games as well.  Anyway, it's going to take a few days (I plan on posting it from Thursday on even if I'm not done, so I can write while the first few run) but it will be thorough, lol.  Like 20K words in total level thorough.  

[maury77]

Lol, it's coming along slowly, taking me forever to write it down.  I was going to get at least 1 knocked out Friday night, but took the vaccine and fell asleep before midnight lol.  
I have 6 done, about 9 more to go.  Talking to Phil about how he wants to release it, once a day, twice a day, and what order.  This is taking long enough that I probably won't do the Fields cut unless we pick him because I just can't find the time to break it down to the level I like within the next month.  
Here's some good news:  I got 2019 film on Wilson today.  So after I'm done with the 9-10 articles cut up, which shades fairly negative, and I expected to get blasted for it, I'm going to break down a couple 2019 games as well.  Anyway, it's going to take a few days (I plan on posting it from Thursday on even if I'm not done, so I can write while the first few run) but it will be thorough, lol.  Like 20K words in total level thorough.  

LOL, I’m sure you will get blasted


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