I was wrong about Josh Allen, and it sucks.

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, deucebag said:

Nah, Fitz is defined as plug and play mediocrity.  Rosen came off one awful team with poor coaching to a new offense in his 2nd season with an even worse supporting cast.

Fitz does the same crap every year.  Pulls off a couple fluke wins the media gushes over him because they love him and then he goes back to sucking

[Jetster]

11 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Predicting the future is not easy, but i imagine the good scouts as ones that think about where the game is going, rather than where it's been. Scouts that cite 'historical comps' as the most important criteria are the first ones to miss out on prospects like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. These dinosaurs asked Lamar jackson to play receiver, how f*cked up is that?

 

All the criticism over concussions has forced the NFL to do everything it can to limit collisions, and they've put more restrictions on defense. The rules have changed to criminalize hits on 'defenseless' receivers and runners. The 'hard hitting safety' - personified by the likes of Polamalu, Rodney harrison, Sean taylor in recent years - is now practically extinct (which is why trading Adams made sense).

In consideration of rule changes, the running QB has a lease of life he wouldn't have had earlier. My biggest concern with Josh allen was the risk of injury, he'd always make a target of himself. But in today's NFL, the risk is now mitigated by DBs developing a fear of fouling out. This effectively allows athletic QBs to run guys over, they in turn, become more fearless. 

Like in business or politics, the good scouts; the few that aren't elevated by nepotism, are able to recognize where the game is going, and think creatively. If you're waiting for that 'good looking' prospect, you'll be waiting a long time...but some - like many in the Jets organization - were doing exactly that. 

Both Lawrence & Fields can move and throw. Darnold still looks unsure when he runs, he's gun shy & his brain is still moving too fast based on self preservation which is understandable. 

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Stop.  He had a very good team around him his first 2 years and sucked.

The kind of turnaround he's having in his 3rd year, especially when also factoring in his college profile, is historic and unprecedented.

This thread was not intended to provide a backdoor route to talk about Sam Darnold or the Jets.  This thread is about Josh Allen.  

I watched a ton of Wyoming / Big West games late on Saturday nights while Allen was there. I was impressed by his size,arm strength , and heart. His accuracy issues in college was the fact he had no decent WR's and tended to air it out downfield a lot. I know, I watched him a lot. That's why, I knew it was a long shot, I wanted him to be drafted by the Jets. I took a lot of heat here because of that. The kids heart is a big as Wyoming and he's not afraid to sacrifice his body to get a critical 1st down. That's makes him a leader . With his play he picks up his team and pushes them to do better. To give more. Now the whole team is confident and knows Allen will lead them to a win. 

Would he have succeeded here ? Sadly we'll never know for sure but that's life. 

[peebag]

call me when he wins a playoff game

[Losmeister]

26 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Dear JN experts,

I know WRs don't matter and please reprimand me if I am out of line here, but do you guys think trading for a star NFL WR between years 2 and 3 helped just a little bit?

sure.

also. last year? Beasley was an abomination...   11 drops or some such....

pretty sure Allen was on ofthe Qbs mostaffected by dropped passes in 2019

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/nfl/bills/2020/05/13/bills-josh-allen-the-qb-impacted-most-by-drops-in-2019/111700934/

[RocketBills]

10 minutes ago, peebag said:

call me when he wins a playoff game

What's your number?  I have a good feeling I'll be calling you in January.  Cheers!

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

BINGO. 

This is what worries me about the Tank for Trevor stuff. 

If Trevor is such a no-brainer 1st overall pick, why wasn't Mahomes the no-brainer 1st overall pick?  

Indeed. the pre-draftscouts and such arent all that great 

i think the higher profile schools end up creating a bias...

look at the schools that Russ, LJ,Mahomes and Allen went to....      but Rosen and Baker and Sam were USC/UCLA/Okie

 

[predator_05]

19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  Meanwhile:  Follow the money.  There's a reason these great athletes, who ordinarily would been moved to RB, WR or Linebacker at the lower levels, are being being encouraged to stick with playing QB:  It's never been more lucrative to be a QB than it is now, especially when juxtaposed to the other positions on the field.  Remember when Bill Polian said that Lamar Jackson needed to move to WR?  That's dinosaur thinking now.  

With better athletes comes more and more running QB's.  It used to be there was only 1-2 in the league at any given time, and the RG3 cautionary tale briefly gave teams pause about drafting the dual threat guys and handing them a lot of money.  Those days are gone now that we're seeing fewer and fewer "statues" in the league. 

MOST guys in the league now can run when needed, and are finding a ton of success.  So even if 1 or 2 of the current star QB's crushes his knee at some point while on the move, that won't stop the train from moving.  Even then, these guys are getting smarter about avoiding big hits and making sure they slide.  That has especially helped Kyler Murray, who comes from a baseball background.  

The market economy has spoken:  Mamas, let your kids grow up to be Quarterbacks.  And if they're dual threat QB's, even better.

 

The change isn't so much at the NFL level. The change is observed in high school and college. More specifically in college, where a certain 'type' of QB is now successful and consistently coveted by the D1 schools. 

The trend in college eventually becomes a trend in the NFL. But it takes a while, because NFL - being the highest tier of football in the land - has a certain arrogance and traditional thinking that its often slow to abandon.

How many NFL coaches actively watch college? I'm certain there are many who don't, they delegate the responsibility of watching 'inferior football' to their scouting department. Those guys are the first ones to miss out on an 'unconventional' prospect. 

 

@T0mShane said this already, but i might as well take it further - kids from...ahem...'non white' backgrounds are no longer seen as incapable of playing QB. in fact, more and more are encouraged to play QB. Changes in attitude often uncover different ways of thinking; which is what we're seeing with these modern day QBs, who think and play differently. 

By the way, the same bias influenced the evaluations of Christian mccaffrey, a guy who was consistently criticized for 'not being able to run between the tackles'. He was supposed to be a third down back. These stone-age attitudes linger for longer than they should. 

[ChuckkieB]

If we are going to pound on Darnold and ignore the state of the team around him, how can we not then be praising Allen?  He is far and away playing better than anyone in his QB draft class not named Lamar Jackson.  Allen is legit.  No way around it.  I was completely wrong about him.

[Losmeister]

18 minutes ago, deucebag said:

Nah, Fitz is defined as plug and play mediocrity.  Rosen came off one awful team with poor coaching to a new offense in his 2nd season with an even worse supporting cast.

If you cannottell that Fitz is betternthan Rosen... 

same team Fitz QBR 66.5 Rosen 18.4...

your on page 6 of my ignore list.  

[Jetsfan80]

31 minutes ago, peebag said:

call me when he wins a playoff game

[SAR I]

33 minutes ago, peebag said:

call me when he wins a playoff game

Call me when he beats a team with a winning record, still hasn't done it except for the Titans without Tannehill.

Kansas City
New England
Seattle
at San Francisco
Pittsburgh
at New England

If Allen is for real, he'll go 3-3 at a minimum against those teams.  Let's see.

SAR I
 

[CTM]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

-83 QBASE score.  56 % career completion % at Wyoming.  2 underwhelming seasons to start his career, loaded with turnovers and poor accuracy.  I called him a Running Back.  There was zero evidence available to suggest Josh Allen would put together 4 games like he has to start 2020, yet he has.

2020 sucks, and that's extended to the NFL season.  

FML.  

I'm not ready to concede just yet but it's not looking good

[CTM]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The scouting community—especially those who do the media-aligned “scouting”—have basically missed on every QB in the past five years. They elevated guys like Darnold, Haskins, Rosen, and Trubisky, while downgrading Lamar, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, etc. There’s a real bias toward “every good QB plays exactly like Tom Brady and anyone who doesn’t can’t actually win in this league.” The model hasn’t exactly changed—you still have to do the majority of your damage from the pocket—but these fake scouts are at the point where they denigrate prospects who have the ability to move a little bit, presuming it’s because they’re too stupid to make a third read from the pocket. 

Darnold and Trubisky play like Brady? 

 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, CTM said:

I'm not ready to concede just yet but it's not looking good

I wasn't after the first 2 weeks, when he faced the lowly Jets and Dolphins to start the season.   But then he performed well against a quality Rams defense, and is now sporting a 12/1 TD:INT ratio, 71 % completions and 9.0 YPA thru the first quarter of the season.

He won't keep up that pace and I doubt he'll end up a serious MVP candidate, but it's white flag time.

[JustInFudge]

I will eat my crow.  I called him Yince Young for the last 2 years because well, he was but dude looks John Elway this year.  Crazy night and day difference.

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I wasn't after the first 2 weeks, when he faced the lowly Jets and Dolphins to start the season.   But then he performed well against a quality Rams defense, and is now sporting a 12/1 TD:INT ratio, 71 % completions and 9.0 YPA thru the first quarter of the season.

He won't keep up that pace and I doubt he'll end up a serious MVP candidate, but it's white flag time.

I mean I've heard enough about how Darnold lead the league in QBR over the last x games of whatever season. Right now Allen has 4 good games against 32 bad ones + a bad statistical projection.

He's on a roll right now but I'm not ready to say it's his new standard. he's going to lay an egg, likely against NE and we'll see what happens from there.

If we are sitting here in 4-6 weeks and he's still in MVP contention I'll be more inclined to wave the white flag

 

[Philc1]

I was never an Allen hater.  While he was getting labeled Hack 2.0 before the draft I defended the guy but look at his supporting cast and coaches and now look at the sh tshow Sam has 

[Paradis]

Liked the player, hated the hype 

[greenwichjetfan]

Been told so many times that a QB is either great or isn't. A QB can either play or can't. A QB is either a FQB or isn't. I kept asking who decides what point in time this binary test is administered, but no responses.

Numerous examples of the opposite have been scoffed at by the above group because "for every xyz, there's a 100 bad QBs" - as if a basic understanding of numbers and the context of the NFL doesn't solve for that rhetoric. 

Circumstances matter. If we're talking about high draft pick QBs, generally speaking, they have the ability. Molding it is paramount. Coaching is A1 to me for a young QB's development. Time and reps is A2, and teammates are A3.

Josh Allen had the highest ceiling and the lowest floor of the QBs in that draft because of his absolutely elite physical tools and incredibly subpar decision making and accuracy. You can't teach someone to throw with more velocity or run faster or harder, but you can definitely improve decision making by making the offense easier and simplify the reads, and you can improve accuracy by having better teammates run routes in which they'll open up. 

When Allen struggled in his rookie season, the defense-oriented HC cut ties with the OC and brought in someone who had tangible experience working specifically with young QBs. When Allen's QB coach got pulled away for a different job, they brought in someone who had actually played the position at a high level to be his QB coach. Throughout the years, they replaced old or lazy players like McCoy and Benjamin, and used their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks over the last 3 years to either draft or acquire all of their offensive starting skill positions. They chose players who would compliment their QBs strengths (shifty guys who can get open quick off the line but also have the speed to win deep, and a huge TE who can work underneath as a safety valve). They spent money in FA and used a second round pick to rebuild their entire OL. That OL and a talented rookie RB laid the foundation for what would ultimately become a very effective running game which takes pressure off the young QB and opens up passing lanes in the play-action game. And they have a defense that keeps games close which keeps the offensive gameplan that you spent all week prepping, in-tact. Keeping the game close eliminates the pressure on QBs to throw into defenses who are pinning their ears back to rush the QB and are squatting for a throw on the back end. 

Most importantly - and I cannot stress this enough: they got an OC who schemed to his QB's strengths. Below is a great article detailing the fact that the initial offense for Allen centered around concepts that ran hard and picked up chunk plays through the air - because Allen was known to have a cannon arm but was innacurate. Made perfect sense. Except, after 2018 when they looked at the data, they saw that he was actually most effective from 0-10 yards, so they cut out a lot of their deep throws down the sideline and switched them for more short/intermediate route concepts with shot plays on play action. The article was written in before the playoffs last year, but based on the first quarter of this season, it looks like all they've done is expanded on this and introduced more shot plays and more screens to dangerous runners to take advantage of all the players strengths. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-how-the-buffalo-bills-built-a-winning-offense

So, when someone tells me a QB can either play or can't, I can understand it if we're differentiating between elite and very good. But the incremental difference between serviceable and very good has more to do with the circumstances than the player, IMO. 

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, CTM said:

I mean I've heard enough about how Darnold lead the league in QBR over the last x games of whatever season. Right now Allen has 4 good games against 32 bad ones + a bad statistical projection.

He's on a roll right now but I'm not ready to say it's his new standard. he's going to lay an egg, likely against NE and we'll see what happens from there.

If we are sitting here in 4-6 weeks and he's still in MVP contention I'll be more inclined to wave the white flag

But my point is it will take more than some regression to say we're on the right side of this one.  It's not just a matter of him falling out of MVP contention, which I do expect to happen.  I can't imagine a situation where he goes from what he's done the first 4 weeks to falling outside of the top 15 QB's in the league. 

Darnold had a couple nice 4-game stretches (I don't care about QBR; those stretches were about average to a little above average compared to league QB's).  Allen is on an ELITE 4-game stretch, and not just because of his running abilities.

Merely finishing the season in the top half of the league's QB's is enough to say we were wrong.  

[kmnj]

you could tell last year he had "it" just needed to make better choices with the ball-one of the things I would argue has greatly helped his progress is the addition of Diggs. It is amazing that if you look around the league -most teams brought in stud FA wrs to help their young qbs develop

Murray-got hopkins

Allen -got diggs

Baker-got OBJ and Landry

Dak-cowboys brought in cooper 

then you look at burrow and hebert-nice weapons too

Jets not only did not add talent for Sam they took it away......

 

 

 

[Green Truth]

2 hours ago, Jetster said:

#1- Did any of you watch the game the whole game or just snippets? He could have made himself a grilled ham & cheese back there for 85% of his snaps. 

#2- Right now his WORST WR would be the starting WR for the Jets right now.

#3- His defense actually gets off the field on 3rd down so the offense can find a rhythm. 

#4- Every single WR made at least 1 amazing grab! Beasley has 2, one was a grab on the sidelines, 1 a TD grab while getting flipped on his head in the endzone. Diggs was just snagging balls out of the air the entire game, no  matter where they were, out front, behind, or slightly above his head. 
#5- Raiders defense SUCKS and both of their starting safeties were out & they lost a starting CB. 
#6- Comparing these 2 QBs based on the myriad of different variables the both face right now is just stupid. 
#7- McDermott vs Gase

Allen is a good QB, he’s also getting a lot of help from his teammates, unlike Sam who as soon as he takes a snap looks like he’s running for his life in a sandlot game playing with a bunch of slow fat kids. 

All of the above.

Allen has not played any world beaters yet.  The Jets, Fish, Rams and Raiders.  I feel that the bad teams do not care.  As they are playing to no one, but the coaches and other players inside the stadium.  It looks like they are just going through the motions for a paycheck.  These games feel like glorified scrimmages.  Yes he has looked better, but lets wait until he has to play in front of 67k people again.   

Sam is just lost.

[rangerous]

allen has some attributes that make him a dangerous qb.  he is big, hard to take down and can run. but you also can't overlook that he was drafted by a nearly established team.  buffaloes defense has been pretty good over the past few seasons and their offense was only missing a few pieces like qb to make them a really good team.  it's hard to contrast the situations that allen, darnold and even mayfield were drafted into. even rosen might do pretty well on a team that has most of the pieces in place and we've all seen what jackson has been doing.

[Melly-Mel]

They set him up for success and its coming to fruition 

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

Call me when he beats a team with a winning record, still hasn't done it except for the Titans without Tannehill.

Kansas City
New England
Seattle
at San Francisco
Pittsburgh
at New England

If Allen is for real, he'll go 3-3 at a minimum against those teams.  Let's see.

SAR I
 

i'm not so down on allen.  he was always going to be a handful as a qb because of his running ability.  apparently buffalo was able to straighten out his passing so now he's got the tools, both physical and the players around him to do well.  we'll see but i'd have to say buffalo is going to win the division.

[Spoot-Face]

Add me to the "Regrets Making Fun of Josh Allen Club".

[Ecmic]

I do not care about the quality of his opponents. Allen had two things he absolutely needed to work on this year - his decision-making and his accuracy (especially deep-ball). These are things that can be evaluated independent of the defenses he's faced. It's a simple truth that Allen is consistently making throws he wouldn't have hit a year ago, and he's improved on his ability to read and stay on progression, especially when facing pressure. And he's making far fewer mistakes.

Since year one, he's shown the ability and desire to attack his deficiencies, which is the most that can be asked of a young QB. Sorry to some, but his improvement can't be simplified to "DeFenSeS!".

[munchmemory]

9 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Add me to the "Regrets Making Fun of Josh Allen Club".

And as president and CEO, I want full control of chapter membership in the "I Friggin' Love Josh Allen's Girlfriend, Brittany Williams,  Club".   Wow is she a doll.

 

[THE BARON]

I was wrong too.  I did not expect his accuracy to improve.  They have done a really nice job with him.  He also looks like he really wants to win when he is on the field.  A competitor.  

[dbatesman]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

If it makes you feel any better, the great Mike Tannenbaum did a radio interview about a month ago where he said, at length, that Josh Allen was never, ever, going to be any good because of the accuracy and brain. Just totally trashed him. 

I'm going to be honest with you, Tom: no, that does not make me feel any better

[carlito1171]

4 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Potential surrounded by good coaching staff and roster usually equals success. 
 

Josh Allen drafted here would’ve been just as frustrating as it is with Darnold. 

There you have it.....replace Gase’s staff for McDermott’s and you more then likely have a further along Darnold....I think the Bills as a team are legit but still not sold on Josh Allen. He’s on a well coached team who plays to his strengths and a front office that was willing to be aggressive in building around him.....

[Jetster]

22 minutes ago, munchmemory said:

And as president and CEO, I want full control of chapter membership in the "I Friggin' Love Josh Allen's Girlfriend, Brittany Williams,  Club".   Wow is she a doll.

 

Its good to be King!

Tom Petty

[ageingjetfan]

4 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Potential surrounded by good coaching staff and roster usually equals success. 
 

Josh Allen drafted here would’ve been just as frustrating as it is with Darnold. 

Tend to agree with this.  We have all seen how Cole Beasley flys up in the air bringing down passes no jet has done since Toon!!!  Seriously, his backs are very good too and has a very good line. If Darnold doesn't throw it perfectly then as is expected, it don't get caught. Sam has his faults but we just plain suck right now.  I also am not going to get crazy after four games either.  I hope the kid don't get hurt, but the way he plays I think its inevitable. Heck last game I thought he broke his left arm.  So far he has been great, lets see it continue before I throw in the towel. 

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Merely finishing the season in the top half of the league's QB's is enough to say we were wrong.  

Hog wash. he lands at 15 this year and back to 25th next year the original projection holds.