Darnold Extension

[More Cowbell]

I don't see how it's avoidable with the 5th year option unless you want to judge Sam on one season with Bowles, and two seasons with Gase with a bunch of makeshift OL talent, no receivers to speak of, no running game, and a Def that just gave up over 30 points to a winless Denver team starting an undrafted QB that was never even on an active roster before this season.

[Barkus]

It will be like Trubisky. Don’t pick up 5th yr option. Ride out year 4. If we draft Lawrence they will let Sam walk after 2021 season or maybe trade him after the draft or prior to 2021 season starting. If no Lawrence and Sam plays well under new coach then franchise tag (if eligible?) or extension, or he walks just to screw the jets. Knowing our luck, whichever the worst possible outcome, that is what will happen?

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I said this a few weeks ago, if the Jets get the #1 overall pick, Darnold will be on the Colts next year in exchange for a 2-3rd rounder.  I'll add the Saints to that list too - but I think it will be the Colts since the FOs have such a close cozy relationship.

Darnold would likely become a star at either of those two spots.

 

But why?

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Barkus said:

It will be like Trubisky. Don’t pick up 5th yr option. Ride out year 4. If we draft Lawrence they will let Sam walk after 2021 season or maybe trade him after the draft or prior to 2021 season starting. If no Lawrence and Sam plays well under new coach then franchise tag (if eligible?) or extension, or he walks just to screw the jets. Knowing our luck, whichever the worst possible outcome, that is what will happen?

We may get a 2nd or 3rd rounder if we trade Sam this off season. How would a trade after 2021 season work? Sam would be a FA (or nearly so) and would much rather pick his own landing spot. He could simply refuse to sign with whatever team traded for him. In fact, I don't even know if it's possible. Don't think you trade him until the new league year, which is the same day he becomes a FA (can some of our board experts opine on this?). I guess you could trade him before the trade deadline next year... maybe get a late-round pick conditioned on the new team extending him.

No, he's gone after 2020. Hopefully JD can turn him into 2021 picks because that will also mean we have negotiated a contract with Lawrence in advance of the draft.

[Jetsfan80]

24 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

unless we trade him - why would he not be on the roster next year.  his cash cost is very very low.

Because there's no point keeping him as the QB2.  We drafted Morgan for that job.  Get whatever you can for him before he walks as a free agent following the 2021 season.

[Barkus]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

We may get a 2nd or 3rd rounder if we trade Sam this off season. How would a trade after 2021 season work? Sam would be a FA (or nearly so) and would much rather pick his own landing spot. He could simply refuse to sign with whatever team traded for him. In fact, I don't even know if it's possible. Don't think you trade him until the new league year, which is the same day he becomes a FA (can some of our board experts opine on this?). I guess you could trade him before the trade deadline next year... maybe get a late-round pick conditioned on the new team extending him.

No, he's gone after 2020. Hopefully JD can turn him into 2021 picks because that will also mean we have negotiated a contract with Lawrence in advance of the draft.

Assuming 5th yr option not picked up, the only window to trade is THIS off-season prior to 2021 season. He will be FA after 2021 season. Not sure if he would be eligible for franchise/transition tag if we decline his 5th yr option.

[jgb]

Just now, Barkus said:

Assuming 5th yr option not picked up, the only window to trade is THIS off-season prior to 2021 season. He will be FA after 2021 season. Not sure if he would be eligible for franchise/transition tag if we decline his 5th yr option.

My thoughts as well. Or as I said, before trade deadline next season for basically nothing. No reason to keep him after 2020.

[varjet]

The Steelers used a second round pick on Mason Rudolph, the Dolphins on Josh Rosen.

Teams will use premium picks to find a QB.  If the Jets have a chance to reboot and try again with another QB on another rookie QB with now at least a LT, I think they should do that and trade Darnold for a 2nd or better.  Do that before the draft.   The key is not trading away all of our draft capital to trade up.  QBs are all crap shoots.  D

If they blow it and can't, the call would be the Trubisky option for Darnold-Don't exercise the fifth year option.  If he plays well, our leverage is the franchise tag, which apparently is only slightly more than the 5th year option.  I don't see the Jets fifth year optioning Darnold.

The Johnsons can be very petty with wanting compensation for their draft picks.  This is what fouled them up with Wilkerson.  

But like the Ravens did, the key is building a team.  Trading away three second round picks for Darnold was another disaster.  I think you are better off building the team, keeping your draft picks, and then find a QB.  

[Jetsfan80]

25 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I said this a few weeks ago, if the Jets get the #1 overall pick, Darnold will be on the Colts next year in exchange for a 2-3rd rounder.  I'll add the Saints to that list too - but I think it will be the Colts since the FOs have such a close cozy relationship.

Darnold would likely become a star at either of those two spots.

Wouldn't that be something.  We trade up with the Colts, and 3 years later they end up with Quenton Nelson AND Sam Darnold.....

[JohnnyLV]

50 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

lol.  

Yes, the Jets are going to hand Darnold an unearned $25M+ in 2022 as the franchise is headed for a top 3 pick.  Totally!

5th year options are guaranteed for injury only. So if he really develops you keep him if not try to trade or release. There is no risk

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

For my own mental health I'd greatly prefer the Jets move Darnold to the NFC so that when he inevitably plays well for someone else we don't have to play him often. Sadly most of the best suitors seem to be in the AFC.

We need to accept the top trade compensation regardless of which team that is.  Cutting the potential trade partners from 31 down to 16 just to get him out of the conference would not be wise.  

If you're so worried that Darnold will be a franchise QB elsewhere and that the QB's in this year's draft won't be better than Darnold, you might as well just keep Darnold and trade down.  Hopefully that's not Douglas' thinking, because Darnold is absolutely NOT going to give us a better shot at a franchise QB than the 2021 draft will.

[Losmeister]

fwiw, I have, for the last several weeks, been a sorta Twitter doofus. 

The guys over at https://jetsxfactor.com/   Narnia and Sabo do some good stuff analyzing the all-22 tape.

They post some of their stuff on tweets, there is more stuff on the site.

And of course there are guys like Baldinger who also does this for nfl.com.   ANd there are others...   

I have tried to engage some of these guys who analyse lots of different QBs. Schofield and Klassen

My POV is that to get the analysis of people who DGAF aboutthe Jets...  might give us some info that contains less bias

as there is no emotional investment whatsoever.

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This is exactly what I see, as well. 

Darnold's best case scenario is to somehow eek out 4-6 wins while playing substantially better, lowering our draft position to a point where Lawrence and/or Fields are simply out of the question. 

In that scenario, we do exactly what you wrote - bring in a vet to compete and give Sam one last chance to put it all together in 2021. 

So, what are the chances that this team can win some games down the stretch? 10%? 5%? 1%?  

 

And Darnold would have to get healthy before that can happen anyways.  We know he's out this week, but there's no guarantee that's the extent of it.  There's always a chance they just put him on IR and keep him out for 3 weeks or more.  

The mere fact that Darnold CANNOT stay healthy is a huge strike against him.  3 straight years to start his career where he can't play a full 16.  By comparison, Eli Manning didn't miss a game due to injury or ailment for 16 straight seasons.

[SAR I]

37 minutes ago, Jet2020 said:

Lol what?

$25M+ for Chad Pennington II no thanks.

SAR I

[Barkus]

1 minute ago, varjet said:

The Steelers used a second round pick on Mason Rudolph, the Dolphins on Josh Rosen.

Teams will use premium picks to find a QB.  If the Jets have a chance to reboot and try again with another QB on another rookie QB with now at least a LT, I think they should do that and trade Darnold for a 2nd or better.  Do that before the draft.   The key is not trading away all of our draft capital to trade up.  QBs are all crap shoots.  D

If they blow it and can't, the call would be the Trubisky option for Darnold-Don't exercise the fifth year option.  If he plays well, our leverage is the franchise tag, which apparently is only slightly more than the 5th year option.  I don't see the Jets fifth year optioning Darnold.

The Johnsons can be very petty with wanting compensation for their draft picks.  This is what fouled them up with Wilkerson.  

But like the Ravens did, the key is building a team.  Trading away three second round picks for Darnold was another disaster.  I think you are better off building the team, keeping your draft picks, and then find a QB.  

Agree. Would NOT trade up for any of the qb. Worst case would give Darnold another year or see what Morgan can do. Need to build a better roster. Of course if we have number one pick would 100% take Lawrence. This would reset the team with new rookie qb and new coach. This is the benefit of being REALLY bad this year. If you are going to suck, be as sucky as possible. Hopefully jets will at least be able to suck properly. That may be why JD avoided signing bandaids like Logan Ryan and others. Rather be 1-15 than 6-10.

[slimjasi]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And Darnold would have to get healthy before that can happen anyways.  We know he's out this week, but there's no guarantee that's the extent of it.  There's always a chance they just put him on IR and keep him out for 3 weeks or more.  

The mere fact that Darnold CANNOT stay healthy is a huge strike against him.  3 straight years to start his career where he can't play a full 16.  By comparison, Eli Manning didn't miss a game due to injury or ailment for 16 straight seasons.

Well, Eli Manning was historically durable - one of the great iron men in NFL history, actually. 

The other thing to note is that one of the "injuries" was mono - basically the flukiest thing ever. 

So we are basically talking about a sprained ankle in year 1 (and it kinda seemed like they wanted him to sit and watch for a few weeks) and a sprained AC joint in year 3

[BigRy56]

I think the majority of people know that Darnold is not the problem with this team. That doesn't mean I'd pass on Lawrence if we got the shot, but it could be a good opportunity to buy low for Joe Douglas.

How big could Sam's next contract possibly be right now? If we brought him in for 15mil a year, it could turn out to be a massive bargain if/when he reaches his potential.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

5th year options are guaranteed for injury only. So if he really develops you keep him if not try to trade or release. There is no risk

He's missed 7 games to injury already in his career.  Of course there's injury risk, lol.

[RSJ]

The fact that Gase hasnt been fired tells me that the franchise is in no way sold on Darnold. I think after this season, unless he improves. He is gone.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Well, Eli Manning was historically durable - one of the great iron men in NFL history, actually. 

The other thing to note is that one of the "injuries" was mono - basically the flukiest thing ever. 

So we are basically talking about a sprained ankle in year 1 (and it kinda seemed like they wanted him to sit and watch for a few weeks) and a sprained AC joint in year 3

So minus Mono he's stayed healthy in 1 of 3 seasons.  Not a great sign.  It's not the ONLY reason to move on from Darnold.  But it's certainly a significant reason to move on, coupled with his other serious flaws as a QB.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

I think the majority of people know that Darnold is not the problem with this team. That doesn't mean I'd pass on Lawrence if we got the shot, but it could be a good opportunity to buy low for Joe Douglas.

How big could Sam's next contract possibly be right now? If we brought him in for 15mil a year, it could turn out to be a massive bargain if/when he reaches his potential.

Simply being "not the problem" doesn't make him a solution, either.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

So minus Mono he's stayed healthy in 1 of 3 seasons.  Not a great sign.  It's not the ONLY reason to move on from Darnold.  But it's certainly a significant reason to move on, coupled with his other serious flaws as a QB.

Yea, he's been banged up a few times, but I sincerely question the extent of the first injury (I really think they were looking to sit him after the bad Miami game). 

Of course, if this injury lasts several weeks, it's not good. 

[Losmeister]

39 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I said this a few weeks ago, if the Jets get the #1 overall pick, Darnold will be on the Colts next year in exchange for a 2-3rd rounder.  I'll add the Saints to that list too - but I think it will be the Colts since the FOs have such a close cozy relationship.

Darnold would likely become a star at either of those two spots.

 

is that a 2nd rnder we gave to them to GET Sam?

@IndianaJet is trippin... Sam would ride the pine on the Saints... Taysom Hill

On April 26, Hill re-signed with the Saints to a two-year deal worth $16.3 million, an extension to the first-round restricted free agent tender placed on Hill, to bring the total deal up to around $21 million

[UnknownJetFan]

58 minutes ago, bitonti said:

When a team exercises the option (YEAR 4), it becomes guaranteed for injury only. If the player is on the team’s roster at the start of the League Year in his option season (YEAR 5), his salary becomes fully guaranteed for skill, cap and injury.

it's a super sweet contract, too sweet to let play out  

the franchise tag for QBs are 26 and transition is 24

Sam Darnold in his current form isn't worth 25 cents 

So after this year the Jets can give him the option of year 5 that is for injury only and if necessary move him prior to the start of the 5th year either via trade or release if the Jets draft a QB in 2021. If I have this context correct then that even gives the Jets the 4th year with Darnold that if they decide to let him play a certain amount of games to boost his stock they can then possibly get something back in a trade and then start the QB they drafted in 2021. Am I correct in this assessment?.  

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, UnknownJetFan said:

So after this year the Jets can give him the option of year 5 that is for injury only and if necessary move him prior to the start of the 5th year either via trade or release if the Jets draft a QB in 2021. If I have this context correct then that even gives the Jets the 4th year with Darnold that if they decide to let him play a certain amount of games to boost his stock they can then possibly get something back in a trade and then start the QB they drafted in 2021. Am I correct in this assessment?.  

 

No one is trading for Darnold if they'd be forced to pay him $25M+ in 2022.  No one.  

We will have to trade him prior to the 5th year option deadline:  May 3, 2021.  Otherwise we'd be stuck with him.

[jgb]

59 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I don't see how it's avoidable with the 5th year option unless you want to judge Sam on one season with Bowles, and two seasons with Gase with a bunch of makeshift OL talent, no receivers to speak of, no running game, and a Def that just gave up over 30 points to a winless Denver team starting an undrafted QB that was never even on an active roster before this season.

No way under the sun Woody Johnson is going to authorize spending $25M-$30M on a guy that is  going to be holding a clipboard starting Week 1 next season. In fact, Woody won't have to even shoot it down because JD ain't gonna ask.

59 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I think in any other year I'd take the "pessimistic" approach that we'll win too many games and screw ourselves. We've obviously seen it before -- several times we've won a December game that meant nothing and gone from top three to 6 overall and missed the QB prospect.

But man, I just don't see it. The combination of a lack of talent, Gase's total non-competitiveness, and the tough schedule really make it difficult to find wins.

My honest take is that if we don't fire Gase I don't see any way we go on a winning streak because I don't see anything dramatically changing (culture with Gregg Williams lighting fire under guys, Jim Bob Cooter with play design or play calling.) We can get back a few pieces on offense but it's not like guys like Mims and Perriman are going to revolutionize everything and we don't really have any injuries on defense.

This is the NFL, so 0-16 is unlikely. But getting to three wins right now is hard to do -- if we can't score an upset the next two weeks 0-9 seems virtually guaranteed, which means we'd need to go almost .500 down the stretch to get to 3-13. Broncos at home on short rest vs. Rypien was the easiest game on the whole schedule.

And we couldn't even win that despite a 3-0 turnover differential in our favor!

44 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Wouldn't that be something.  We trade up with the Colts, and 3 years later they end up with Quenton Nelson AND Sam Darnold.....

I really need to find out if Macc is playing poker during his forced retirement and get into that game by any means necessary.

41 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We need to accept the top trade compensation regardless of which team that is.  Cutting the potential trade partners from 31 down to 16 just to get him out of the conference would not be wise.  

If you're so worried that Darnold will be a franchise QB elsewhere and that the QB's in this year's draft won't be better than Darnold, you might as well just keep Darnold and trade down.  Hopefully that's not Douglas' thinking, because Darnold is absolutely NOT going to give us a better shot at a franchise QB than the 2021 draft will.

Uh, I want Darnold in the AFC, preferably in the AFC East.

38 minutes ago, Barkus said:

Agree. Would NOT trade up for any of the qb. Worst case would give Darnold another year or see what Morgan can do. Need to build a better roster. Of course if we have number one pick would 100% take Lawrence. This would reset the team with new rookie qb and new coach. This is the benefit of being REALLY bad this year. If you are going to suck, be as sucky as possible. Hopefully jets will at least be able to suck properly. That may be why JD avoided signing bandaids like Logan Ryan and others. Rather be 1-15 than 6-10.

Trade Darnold after this year or let him walk for nothing. I cannot imagine a scenario where an NFL GM doesn't trade Darnold after this year.

35 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

I think the majority of people know that Darnold is not the problem with this team. That doesn't mean I'd pass on Lawrence if we got the shot, but it could be a good opportunity to buy low for Joe Douglas.

How big could Sam's next contract possibly be right now? If we brought him in for 15mil a year, it could turn out to be a massive bargain if/when he reaches his potential.

You'd pay Darnold double what the current highest paid backup QB makes (Mariota - $7.5M) based on... what exactly?

[batman10023]

5 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Because once we draft his replacement (which seems very likely at this point) he has way more value to us as a trade asset than as a backup QB.

Depends on what we get. Plus it might help to have new guy sit for a few weeks. 

[Larz]

I thought he hurt his elbow too lol

but seriously he isn’t worth the 5th year option. 
 

 

[Losmeister]

6 hours ago, slimjasi said:

but I sincerely question the extent of the first injury (I really think they were looking to sit him after the bad Miami game). 

i also believe he was flat out becnhed...he played three-4 atrocious games in a row...

just like the stretch last year...  NE/JAx/Miami... he has stretches of ABYSMAL QB play... 

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

6 hours ago, SAR I said:

$25M+ for Chad Pennington II no thanks.

SAR I

I mean at least it's not 64