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Frelund: Week 5 Win Probabilities


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https://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory-week-5-win-probabilities-score-projections-x3971

Cynthia's Week 5 win probabilities, score projections

Cynthia Frelund projects the score and win probability for every week 5 game

frelund-300x300.jpg

 

  1. Ravens (vs CIN):  81 %
  2. Cowboys (vs NYG):  73 %
  3. Chiefs (vs LVG):  73 %
  4. Steelers (vs PHI):  72 %
  5. Saints (vs LAC):  72 %
  6. 49ers (vs MIA):  71 %
  7. Rams (@ WAS):  70 %
  8. Patriots (vs DEN):  69 %
  9. Seahawks (vs MIN):  65 %
  10. Cardinals (@ NYJ):  63 %
  11. Texans (vs JAX):  56 %
  12. Panthers (@ ATL):  55 %
  13. Browns (vs IND):  52 %
  14. Bills (@ TEN):  52 %
  15. Titans (vs BUF):  48 %
  16. Colts (@ CLE):  48 %
  17. Falcons (vs CAR):  45 %
  18. Jaguars (@ HOU):  44 %
  19. Jets (vs AZ):  37 %
  20. Vikings (@ SEA):  35 %
  21. Broncos (@ NE):  31 %
  22. Washington (vs LAR):  30 %
  23. Dolphins (@ SF):  29 %
  24. Chargers (@ NO):  28 %
  25. Eagles (@ PIT):  28 %
  26. Raiders (@ KC):  27 %
  27. Giants (@ DAL):  27 %
  28. Bengals (@ BAL):  19 %

Byes:  Lions, Packers

 

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that number sounds 1) accurate 2) about 30 percent higher than most fans predict

West coast team 1p start
2nd east coast game in a row (travel)
10 days rest for the Jets
Who are Desperate for a win
Bell their best player returns

New Jets qb Flacco that's won a super bowl and objectively better than darnold by every possible statistical measurement

This is a trap situation for Arizona. There's a reason why the spread is 7 not 17

Sent from my Pixel 2 using JetNation.com mobile app

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Need to hear from Nania. In his blog post that Manish pointed us all to, he plotted TomShane’s blood alcohol level at 11am against some opaque Mediterranean weather derivatives and correctly predicted the present state we are in. This was prior to even finalizing the roster. But please keep posting fap bait. 

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There is a 90% probability that no matter how Flacco performs, it will be used to excuse Sam's failures.

"Joe did poorly. No one could win with these weapons. [INSERT MASSIVE LOGIC GAP] Therefore Sam is a FQB."

-or-

"Joe did well. This proves that Gase ruined Sam. Get him a good HC and he will be good, also."

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Just now, Jet Nut said:

Too bad its not 5 years ago.

And a neck ago

Then this might be true

Joe Flacco is a far better QB than Sam Darnold

that doesn't make him great 

it just makes him better than Sam Darnold

Check down Charlie can win games when the guy you're checking down to is Leveon bell with a month off 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Joe Flacco is a far better QB than Sam Darnold

that doesn't make him great 

it just makes him better than Sam Darnold

Check down Charlie can win games when the guy you're checking down to is Leveon bell with a month off 

Joe Flacco hasn't been a good QB for years.  

Hes not a better QB than Darnold.  

Its amazing how bad your posts have gotten

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Joe Flacco hasn't been a good QB for years.  

Hes not a better QB than Darnold.  

Its amazing how bad your posts have gotten

I'm not going to spam the board with a "yes/no" debate any further.

do me a favor buddy

click both of these links and tell me how or by what measure Sam Darnold is a better NFL QB than Joe Flacco 

even 2019 denver flacco was better than 2020 Darnold 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00.htm

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6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I'm not going to spam the board with a "yes/no" debate any further.

do me a favor buddy

click both of these links and tell me how or by what measure Sam Darnold is a better NFL QB than Joe Flacco 

even 2019 denver flacco was better than 2020 Darnold 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00.htm

BUT WEAPONZZ!

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10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I'm not going to spam the board with a "yes/no" debate any further.

do me a favor buddy

click both of these links and tell me how or by what measure Sam Darnold is a better NFL QB than Joe Flacco 

even 2019 denver flacco was better than 2020 Darnold 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00.htm

2016 called.

I know you want to debate 2010ish Flacco vs a rookie or 2nd year Sam but I wont.  I'll take Sam

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7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

2016 called.

I know you want to debate 2010ish Flacco vs a rookie or 2nd year Sam but I wont.  I'll take Sam

since we won't agree

care to make some sort of charity wager on it? 

it can be small like 20 bucks to charity of the winners choice 

i'll take the Jets +7 thats how much I believe Flacco keeps it close if not wins outright 

i'd take Jets moneyline but i'd need those odds

 

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

since we won't agree

care to make some sort of charity wager on it? 

it can be small like 20 bucks to charity of the winners choice 

i'll take the Jets +7 thats how much I believe Flacco keeps it close if not wins outright 

i'd take Jets moneyline but i'd need those odds

 

One game would prove what exactly?

That Foles is a better talent than Brady?

I can go on and on with one game wins

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

One game would prove what exactly?

That Foles is a better talent than Brady?

I can go on and on with one game wins

This is not going to be Joe Flacco's only start

we can bet on all these games if you like 

history says Darnold misses a month 

 

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This is not going to be Joe Flacco's only start

we can bet on all these games if you like 

history says Darnold misses a month 

 

What history, missing a few games as a rookie, maybe?  If he wasn't given a few games to watch and settle down.

Sams back in less than a month, more than likely next week

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5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This is not going to be Joe Flacco's only start

we can bet on all these games if you like 

history says Darnold misses a month 

 

If it is anywhere near a month, I hope that they get Morgan up to speed. Have zero interest in watching Flacco any more than on Sunday.

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Sam has a painful shoulder injury. He is not and should not be playing for at least a month.  

Flacco will play for no more than a month, and then get injured behind this o-line.  If I had to guess the play calling will not be adapted for a not mobile QB playing behind a bad/injured line.

At least 3, if not 4, QBs will be playing for the Jets this season.  My other prediction is that Darnold will play at least 4 games in the second half of the season and look much better. 

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Those odds are probably based on the situation (1 PM East Coast game, Jets on extra rest) and the fact that the Cardinals have been pretty mediocre so far. Doesn't matter. This will be a "get right" game for Kyler Murray. That's the exact kind of QB who's going to eat our lunch. This is going to be a game where Hopkins runs wild and every time we think we've got them on 3rd and long Murray will scamper for 16 yards.

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36 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Those odds are probably based on the situation (1 PM East Coast game, Jets on extra rest) and the fact that the Cardinals have been pretty mediocre so far. Doesn't matter. This will be a "get right" game for Kyler Murray. That's the exact kind of QB who's going to eat our lunch. This is going to be a game where Hopkins runs wild and every time we think we've got them on 3rd and long Murray will scamper for 16 yards.

lol, like we'll force any 3rd downs, let alone 3rd and long situations.

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