Alert Breer asked NFL executives Darnolds trade value and some said late first round pick

[Jetsbb]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/10/12/trevor-lawrence-looms-jets-trades-travis-fulgham-andy-dalton

There’s no better example of Trevor Lawrence’s looming presence over the bottom of the NFL standings than in ESPN’s Sunday morning news story this weekend gauging the trade value of Jets QB Sam Darnold. And I hope I’ve been as clear as possible about this with people over the last couple months. There’s very little chance that whoever has the first pick will trade it, regardless of who else is on the roster. The team that gets him is going to have to be the worst team in the league, because that’s the type of prospect Lawrence is. It was like this in 2012 for Andrew Luck (and I’d imagine 1983 for John Elway and 1998 for Peyton Manning), and it's going to be the same in 2021.

And to continue the exercise, I did reach out to a few people to gauge what the price tag might be for Darnold—and what they’d be willing to pay. One NFC exec said, “A little more than the [Josh] Rosen trade, so maybe a second and a fourth.” An AFC scouting director was willing to go a little further than that, saying, “If you had a 1 in the 20s like, say, a Pittsburgh, I’d do it. The kid’s talented as hell and is under a brutal [situation].” A second NFC exec said he’d consider “a late 1 this year for him, maybe two 2s,” and added “He’s still an asset. This isn’t Hackenberg.”

That makes a lot of sense to me. And if I was the Steelers, I’d see a lot of reclamation project value there. The Niners took a shot like that back in the ’80s, and did it despite having Joe Montana on the roster, and I don’t think they regretted it.

While we’re on the Jets, the continued acrimony between Le’Veon Bell and the team sure could lead to GM Joe Douglas’s phone ringing in the next couple weeks to check on his running back’s availability. And one thing that might help is the structure of his contract. The Jets already paid out a $4.5 million roster bonus, and his $8.5 million base comes down by a half-million each week—the prorated amount left sits at $6 million right now.

If I were Douglas, I’d move him. That the squabbling between Bell and coach Adam Gase has gotten to the point where the 28-year-old back is passive-aggressively taking shots on social media, and Gase is responding by telling reporters, “I hate that's the route we go with this,” suggests the genie might out of the bottle on this one anyway. And it’s not like they’re relying on Bell as is—he has 22 touches and three missed games through five weeks.

As it stands, the next two drafts are shaping up as huge ones for Douglas. Might as well get as much capital as you can.

 

[munchmemory]

In the CFL.

[pointman]

Let him compete with whoever we bring in. Then sell sell sell. No rush. 

[Jetsbb]

I knew the Adam Shefter piece was a hit job by interested GM's who would want to get him on the cheap.

[Irish Jet]

If we get a 2nd I’d be extremely impressed. 

It wouldn’t surprise me if some teams still love him though. He’s extremely young and it just takes one GM to put his struggles down to what’s around him. 

[Jetsbb]

1 minute ago, Irish Jet said:

If we get a 2nd I’d be extremely impressed. 

It wouldn’t surprise me if some teams still love him though. He’s extremely young and it just takes one GM to put his struggles down to what’s around him. 

Extremely impressed? Jets gave up three 2nd rounders plus the third overall pick for him. Talk about a discount!!!!

[joewilly12]

Sam Darnold's future with the Jets is uncertain. Photo credit (Bobby Ellis/Getty Images)

Sam Darnold

The Jets are 0-5, with a league-worst -86 point differential. Will they manage to win a game or two in 2020? Probably, but there's a very real chance that they'll have one of the top two picks in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Anyone that secures the top pick in next year's draft will certainly take Lawrence, who is viewed as one of the top five quarterback prospects in the last 25 years. Things could get a little more interesting if the Jets end up with the No. 2 pick, and are faced with the choice of drafting Fields or trading back and moving forward with Darnold.

If the Jets choose to go in another direction at quarterback, Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, could be an interesting trade candidate for the 49ers. He seemingly hasn't gotten a fair shake because of the instability and incompetence of the Jets organization. It would be interesting to see if Shanahan and a more stable organization could allow Darnold to reach his ceiling.

The only issue with the idea of trading for Darnold is that if acquired, the 49ers would have to make a decision on his fifth-year option before he ever played a game with the team. If they picked it up, they'd be on the hook for paying a hefty salary in 2022, even if things don't work out as anticipated in 2021. If not, the 49ers would either have to place the franchise tag on Darnold or let him test free agency after just one season with the team.

 

[Spoot-Face]

[DJF71]

Can't wait until he is traded. Time to find a new team for us.

[HessStation]

SELL HIGH SELL NOW!!!  DO IT

[Beerfish]

If you are not getting a lot keep him even if you draft lawrence

[joewilly12]

Trade him to Dallas get their 2021 #1 pick. 

[rangerous]

It’s all very interesting.  The thing too is that if Lawrence is picked it doesn’t automatically make darnold expendable. The jets team would still need to be better established in order to take advantage of Lawrence’s talents and that means a few more really good players. Maybe mostly will come back with some fire. The experience the younger players is going to help and if Mims and Clark get in they will improve the prospects of next season’s team.  Of course they could retain Flacco and trade darnold too.

[Rhg1084]

All it takes is one team to covet him and give up a lot. Nobody thought we were getting two 1s for Jamal

[Creepy Lurker]

Just now, Rhg1084 said:

All it takes is one team to covet him and give up a lot. Nobody thought we were getting two 1s for Jamal

We can fleece Gettleman one last time!

[Adoni Beast]

I don't think Douglas thought we’d go 0-16, but I definitely think he was tanking this year to get rid of Gase and get a shot at Trevor.

I don’t think its that JD doesn’t believe in Sam, I just think NYJ FO just sees Trevor as a cant miss and wanted Gase gone. 

All that Gase and Douglas are bros is bull. They’re so close that Douglas initially turned down the job and demanded a 6 year deal to cleanse this team of Gase and the sh*t Mac roster he inherited.

[jgb]

If JD gets a first round pick for Darnold I will lick his bald head.

[Untouchable]

I could absolutely see us getting a late 1st out of Darnold.

The dude is still only 23 years old and has demonstrated a sh*t load of raw talent despite the doo-doo coaching and talent surrounding him thus far. Doesn’t excuse some of the mistakes, but still.

I didn’t expect us to land the kind of haul that we got for Adams...or Sheldon...or Leo...

Not making that mistake again.

People are stupid 

Especially NFL execs

In the case of Darnold, it could turn out to be brilliant for a team like the Steelers, Saints or Colts.

[Rhg1084]

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st round pick on two different occasions lol... QBs have high trade values 

[jgb]

29 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I could absolutely see us getting a late 1st out of Darnold.

The dude is still only 23 years old and has demonstrated a sh*t load of raw talent despite the doo-doo coaching and talent surrounding him thus far. Doesn’t excuse some of the mistakes, but still.

I didn’t expect us to land the kind of haul that we got for Adams...or Sheldon...or Leo...

Not making that mistake again.

People are stupid 

Especially NFL execs

In the case of Darnold, it could turn out to be brilliant for a team like the Steelers, Saints or Colts.

 

27 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st round pick on two different occasions lol... QBs have high trade values 

I agree. The hope of getting a first rounder for Darnold depends on the stupidity of another NFL GM.

[fullblast]

He'll be a 49er next year. And he'll be a star.

[jeremy2020]

JD can confirm his wizard status if he gets a 1st round pick for Darnold.

Just now, fullblast said:

He'll be a 49er next year. And he'll be a star.

Say it with me, Top ten picks who fail on their first team don't go on to be a success with another team. You have like 1 or 2 (arguable if there's even 2) who did it. Plunket in 1971 was the last one that isn't really arguable. 

 

[BigRy56]

Deservedly so. We’re down on him for now but the prevailing thought around the league is that he’s a franchise QB on a terrible team. He could definitely net a first and we’ll likely regret moving away from him

[BroadwayRay]

It’s a Catch-22 for the Jets. If Darnold shows something the remainder of the season, he’ll have good trade value, but the Jets will most likely not be 0-16 and not in a position to take Lawrence. If Darnold continues to play like he has been, hello Trevor. But Darnold’s trade value will be in the crapper. 

[Icer]

If Darnold is a good player on another team, but Lawrence is as good or better on ours does it matter? I wouldnt be hung up on it

I'd be shocked if we got a 1st, but JD seems to get good value from his trades so who knows 

[jgb]

This thread is begging for some @Jetsfan80

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

This thread is begging for some @Jetsfan80

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, pointman said:

Let him compete with whoever we bring in. Then sell sell sell. No rush. 

Uh, he's a free agent after the 2021 season.  There absolutely is a rush.  And the longer the Jets wait, the lower his value drops.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Jetsbb said:

Extremely impressed? Jets gave up three 2nd rounders plus the third overall pick for him. Talk about a discount!!!!

That was back when Darnold was perceived to be a future franchise QB.  Now, like it or not, he's going to be perceived as a journeyman.  A young one, sure, but a journeyman nonetheless.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

If you are not getting a lot keep him even if you draft lawrence

 

[varjet]

Darnold should agree to a reduced 5th year salary to incentivize a team to give him a chance.  Maybe split the difference.  $15mm.  I think Bortles did something similar.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Untouchable said:

I could absolutely see us getting a late 1st out of Darnold.

The dude is still only 23 years old and has demonstrated a sh*t load of raw talent despite the doo-doo coaching and talent surrounding him thus far. Doesn’t excuse some of the mistakes, but still.

I didn’t expect us to land the kind of haul that we got for Adams...or Sheldon...or Leo...

Not making that mistake again.

People are stupid 

Especially NFL execs

In the case of Darnold, it could turn out to be brilliant for a team like the Steelers, Saints or Colts.

 

The minute a GM gives up a 1st round pick for Darnold, he's banking on Darnold being a long-term starter.  Unless the GM has a long, long leash, you can't miss on that and expect to keep your job.  GM's have been fired for a lot less.  

Hopefully you're right and we can get a 1st.  That would be fantastic.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

Darnold should agree to a reduced 5th year salary to incentivize a team to give him a chance.  Maybe split the difference.  $15mm.  I think Bortles did something similar.  

Wait what why? He wants to be a starter. We are drafting the next guy. Sam will want out. JD will help him pack his boogie board.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, varjet said:

Darnold should agree to a reduced 5th year salary to incentivize a team to give him a chance.  Maybe split the difference.  $15mm.  I think Bortles did something similar. 

Now why would he do that?  He either can get his 5th year option exercised, which would pay him $25M+ in 2022, OR he can sign a long-term deal with the team that trades for him (a team which, presumably, would believe in him long-term).  

Signing a 1-year, $15M "prove it" deal is neither in the Jets nor Darnold's best interests.