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Greenseed4

Updated draft order: 0-5 edition

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46 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

There’s a site that lists the 2021 NFL draft order, and it gets updated after each game. It currently has the Jets picking #3 (prior to week 6). 

1. NYJ, 0-5 (SOS, .530)

...as a service to this fine board, I will update these rankings on a weekly basis, until we are properly recognized as the league’s sh*ttiest team, by all of the websites. 

 

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5 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

There’s a site that lists the 2021 NFL draft order, and it gets updated after each game. It currently has the Jets picking #3 (prior to week 6). Which is wrong. 


The reason for this blunder is twofold:
1. Draft order is based on W/L record, with tie-breakers succumbing to strength of schedule. (A team with an easier SOS is deemed “worse” than a team it shares the same W/L record with because losing games to bad teams means your team sucks worse than one that loses games to better teams.  Look, the logic checks out.)

However,
2. This site is flawed. It is calculating the SOS as the average of ALL 16 opponents for the season.  That means it is factoring in the strength of teams we haven’t even played yet.  That’s not cool. Or accurate. 
 

If you look at the CURRENT strength of schedule for the 0-5 teams, we would actually be drafting first if the season ended today, with the following SOS:

1. NYJ, 0-5 (SOS, .530)

2. NYG, 0-5 (SOS, .680)

3. ATL, 0-5 (SOS, .760)

————

Should all three of these horrible teams lose this weekend, their updated SOS will be as follows:

1. NYJ, 0-6 (SOS, .508)

2. NYG, 0-6 (SOS, .600)

3. ATL, 0-6 (SOS, .667)

bc: MIA (.400), WAS (.200), MIN (.200)


...as a service to this fine board, I will update these rankings on a weekly basis, until we are properly recognized as the league’s sh*ttiest team, by all of the websites. 

 

That would be awesome if COVID shuts down the season and we are still #1

(as long as the use this year info to make their decision)

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1 hour ago, ljr said:

 

That would be awesome if COVID shuts down the season and we are still #1

(as long as the use this year info to make their decision)

I mean, No... but yeah. 

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To save you this indignity @Greenseed4:

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

though they seem to disagree with your SOS. I think they might be looking out to the future SOS too which might explain it. Either way figured I’d give you this. The team tortures us enough, no need to force us into doing their math homework too. 

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4 minutes ago, TheMo said:

To save you this indignity @Greenseed4:

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

though they seem to disagree with your SOS. I think they might be looking out to the future SOS too which might explain it. Either way figured I’d give you this. The team tortures us enough, no need to force us into doing their math homework too. 

Thanks, man. That’s the one!

53BF8850-293D-4373-9571-5443781CA190.jpeg.81a9280efbfa4c9f07b281f0d3b1f793.jpeg
 

(if you click on the info button by their SOS header, you see this...it’s the whole reason I did this exercise, which I thought I explained pretty thoroughly, lol)

5BDD1944-6EA3-4A38-B6CD-D62A02EB4662.thumb.jpeg.5b745a209cdd69bd139e094f8c2b1210.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Thanks, man. That’s the one!

53BF8850-293D-4373-9571-5443781CA190.jpeg.81a9280efbfa4c9f07b281f0d3b1f793.jpeg
 

(if you click on the info button by their SOS header, you see this...it’s the whole reason I did this exercise, which I thought I explained pretty thoroughly, lol)

5BDD1944-6EA3-4A38-B6CD-D62A02EB4662.thumb.jpeg.5b745a209cdd69bd139e094f8c2b1210.jpeg

I’m an idiot and didn’t read your post thoroughly. lol

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26 minutes ago, TheMo said:

To save you this indignity @Greenseed4:

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

though they seem to disagree with your SOS. I think they might be looking out to the future SOS too which might explain it. Either way figured I’d give you this. The team tortures us enough, no need to force us into doing their math homework too. 

One week at a time.  Just keep your eye on the prize and keep losing.  That's all you can do.

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22 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

I guess this helps if you think the season is going to end soon, otherwise, it is no more accurate than the alternative.  

I disagree. it’s already less accurate. 
I’m pretty sure the tankathon site owners used a single algorithm to sort SOS because it was easier than adjusting them individually each week. 

Take the Bengals for example. They are listed to be drafting #12 overall (partly cause they tied a game) but also because the three other teams in their division currently have terrific W/L records that get counted twice in the tankathon formula. 
PIT (1.00), BAL (.800), CLE (.800). 
Do you really think Pittsburgh is going to have a perfect season? and do you really think both the Ravens AND the Browns will win 12.8 games?
Because that’s impossible. 

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Giants vs. Washington is a pretty big game this weekend.  Let's go Giants!

Minnesota vs. Atlanta is a battle of the current #2 draft slot vs. #7.  Let's go Falcons!

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3 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

I disagree. it’s already less accurate. 
I’m pretty sure the tankathon site owners used a single algorithm to sort SOS because it was easier than adjusting them individually each week. 

Take the Bengals for example. They are listed to be drafting #12 overall (partly cause they tied a game) but also because the three other teams in their division currently have terrific W/L records that get counted twice in the tankathon formula. 
PIT (1.00), BAL (.800), CLE (.800). 
Do you really think Pittsburgh is going to have a perfect season? and do you really think both the Ravens AND the Browns will win 12.8 games?
Because that’s impossible. 

Exactly.  Neither is accurate.  

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14 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Exactly.  Neither is accurate.  

At this point it doesn't matter which is accurate.  But it's fun to discuss...

Let's just lose out, there won't be two 0-16 teams.  

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1 hour ago, Butterfield said:

Exactly.  Neither is accurate.  

I mean, I calculated it. If you’re saying you checked my work and it’s wrong, feel free to share with the class. Otherwise, you’re just being a dickhead.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

At this point it doesn't matter which is accurate.  But it's fun to discuss...

Let's just lose out, there won't be two 0-16 teams.  

Our luck, we will go 0-16 and still pick 3rd.

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50 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

There's nothing more pointless than arguing over strength of schedule tie breakers after week 5. 

Were you expecting a different topic when you read the thread title? 
That’s on you, man. 

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4 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Were you expecting a different topic when you read the thread title? 
That’s on you, man. 

I was expecting to see the draft order not an argument over the strength of schedule calculation that will be rendered meaningless by 730 tomorrow evening. But do appreciate the time you put in.

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1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I was expecting to see the draft order not an argument over the strength of schedule calculation that will be rendered meaningless by 730 tomorrow evening. But do appreciate the time you put in.

Thanks man. Tankathon has us picking #3 so I wanted to look into it. Not only are we currently in the driver’s seat for the #1, but if all winless teams lose tomorrow, we retain the #1.  This might change over the course of the season as the SOS fluctuates, so I thought it’d be good to keep tabs on it... with all the Tank for Trevor talk and what-not.  
 

I see a huge gap in draft strategy if we have the #1 overall vs. the #3 vs. anything else.

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14 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

There’s a site that lists the 2021 NFL draft order, and it gets updated after each game. It currently has the Jets picking #3 (prior to week 6). Which is wrong. 


The reason for this blunder is twofold:
1. Draft order is based on W/L record, with tie-breakers succumbing to strength of schedule. (A team with an easier SOS is deemed “worse” than a team it shares the same W/L record with because losing games to bad teams means your team sucks worse than one that loses games to better teams.  Look, the logic checks out.)

However,
2. This site is flawed. It is calculating the SOS as the average of ALL 16 opponents for the season.  That means it is factoring in the strength of teams we haven’t even played yet.  That’s not cool. Or accurate. 
 

If you look at the CURRENT strength of schedule for the 0-5 teams, we would actually be drafting first if the season ended today, with the following SOS:

1. NYJ, 0-5 (SOS, .530)

2. NYG, 0-5 (SOS, .680)

3. ATL, 0-5 (SOS, .760)

————

Should all three of these horrible teams lose this weekend, their updated SOS will be as follows:

1. NYJ, 0-6 (SOS, .508)

2. NYG, 0-6 (SOS, .600)

3. ATL, 0-6 (SOS, .667)

bc: MIA (.400), WAS (.200), MIN (.200)


...as a service to this fine board, I will update these rankings on a weekly basis, until we are properly recognized as the league’s sh*ttiest team, by all of the websites. 

This is really cool, I didn't realize that is how Tankathon calculated SoS. I guess I usually don't look at it until way later in the season. Too many variables at this point. My biggest fear is losing to a team who is resting their starters at the end of the season.

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As much as I would enjoy the draft day intrigue, the drama of what 0-16 would mean to rebuild of the Jetsons...I don't see it happening.

This work-in-progress O line is going to continue to trend better into late November. Whoever else is back there slinging the pigskin will have time to throw to our next great Jets, hope...'the one and only' (never was that bland phrase more accurate) Denzel Mims.

Given that Pierre Desir headlines is our marque defensive free agent acquisition (among many bright lights in our Jets secondary), the Jets offense will have to turn on the scoring.

If the Jets don't beat the Chargers on the Sunday before Thanksgiving... then on January 3rd, with a fully healthy  Perriman, Mims, Beckton and Darnold, the Greenies may squeak out a win against the playoffs bound Patriots B team.

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4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

I mean, I calculated it. If you’re saying you checked my work and it’s wrong, feel free to share with the class. Otherwise, you’re just being a dickhead.

Or we could just agree to disagree.  Seems like you are the one being a jerk.  

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7 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Or we could just agree to disagree.  Seems like you are the one being a jerk.  

Fwiw, I was more offended by having my math questioned than I am being called a jerk. 

There’s a name for people who walk in, call you wrong, and then leave.  But since you’re neither my boss nor my wife, I assumed you were just being a dick. 

And that’s okay, I’m a dick sometimes.
But if I take the time to call someone wrong (or inaccurate), I back it up with proof or reasoning.  

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17 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

There’s a site that lists the 2021 NFL draft order, and it gets updated after each game. It currently has the Jets picking #3 (prior to week 6). Which is wrong. 


The reason for this blunder is twofold:
1. Draft order is based on W/L record, with tie-breakers succumbing to strength of schedule. (A team with an easier SOS is deemed “worse” than a team it shares the same W/L record with because losing games to bad teams means your team sucks worse than one that loses games to better teams.  Look, the logic checks out.)

However,
2. This site is flawed. It is calculating the SOS as the average of ALL 16 opponents for the season.  That means it is factoring in the strength of teams we haven’t even played yet.  That’s not cool. Or accurate. 
 

If you look at the CURRENT strength of schedule for the 0-5 teams, we would actually be drafting first if the season ended today, with the following SOS:

1. NYJ, 0-5 (SOS, .530)

2. NYG, 0-5 (SOS, .680)

3. ATL, 0-5 (SOS, .760)

————

Should all three of these horrible teams lose this weekend, their updated SOS will be as follows:

1. NYJ, 0-6 (SOS, .508)

2. NYG, 0-6 (SOS, .600)

3. ATL, 0-6 (SOS, .667)

bc: MIA (.400), WAS (.200), MIN (.200)


...as a service to this fine board, I will update these rankings on a weekly basis, until we are properly recognized as the league’s sh*ttiest team, by all of the websites. 

To be honest I think the tankathon method using all 16 opponents is actually far better. It is a projection and their projection gets more accurate each week whereas yours will get less accurate each week.

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ESPN Analyst Has Blunt Message For Fans Of Bad NFL Teams

ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky.ESPN.

There are a lot of bad NFL teams this season, but a few stick out.The New York Jets, New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons have each yet to win a game this season. The two New York teams and Atlanta are a combined 0-5 on the season. Some are starting to think that one of them (cough, Jets, cough) could finish the year 0-16.

Whoever does finish with the worst record will get a chance to draft Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The former five-star recruit is viewed by many as a generational draft prospect.

Dan Orlovsky agrees.

The ESPN analyst had a very blunt message on social media today for the fans of bad NFL teams.

“Winning 1 game is not worth it if it forces you to not get the first pick to draft Trevor Lawrence,” he tweeted on Saturday. “Simply put it’s just not worth missing out on getting that first pick.”

 

#mustnotwinagame

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58 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

To be honest I think the tankathon method using all 16 opponents is actually far better. It is a projection and their projection gets more accurate each week whereas yours will get less accurate each week.

How does mine get less accurate? It isn’t a projection but an actual current state ranking based on actual schedule strength. 
 

Let me put it to you this way: if the season ended before kickoff tomorrow, would we be drafting #3 overall (as is suggested by tankathon) or #1 overall (based on math of our ACTUAL opponent’s W/L records)?

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Just to clarify, is SOS based on a teams record from the year before or its record this year after the final game of this season?   If it's the latter then the OP's take more accurate than the tankathon site.  Right? 

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8 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

At this point it doesn't matter which is accurate.  But it's fun to discuss...

Let's just lose out, there won't be two 0-16 teams.  

Thats what I see happening.

The Falcons interim HC is bound to win some games because he wants to be considered for the job. Plus Ryan is still decent.

Joe Judge is surely under pressure to win.

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1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

Just to clarify, is SOS based on a teams record from the year before or its record this year after the final game of this season?   If it's the latter then the OP's take more accurate than the tankathon site.  Right? 

Before a season starts, ‘Strength of Schedule’ is based on the culmination of a teams’ opponents records from the previous year. It is used by odds makers (bookies) to determine a teams chances at success for the season ahead.  Of course this is fundamentally flawed given the amount of roster turnover, free agent differential, rookie talent development and coaching changes.  This is why some sites use adjusted values (DVOA), or even ‘Strength of Victory’ (SOV) to compare teams that don’t play each other. 

For draft order, the same term is used, but instead of looking at the prior year, it is the culmination of all wins and losses accumulated by their opponents for the season. This number of regular season wins & losses (and ties) will always add up to 256 at the end of the season. 

Tankathon is NOT incorrect in their algorithm, IF the following conditions are met:

1. All 16 games are played by all 32 teams. 
2. You don’t look at their rankings until after week-17.

If you want an ACCURATE, updated snapshot, before the end of the season... you would need to do what I did: Add up all of the wins accumulated by our opponents and then divide by the total number of games... and then compare that # to the other teams that share our record (0-5). 

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9 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Fwiw, I was more offended by having my math questioned than I am being called a jerk. 

There’s a name for people who walk in, call you wrong, and then leave.  But since you’re neither my boss nor my wife, I assumed you were just being a dick. 

And that’s okay, I’m a dick sometimes.
But if I take the time to call someone wrong (or inaccurate), I back it up with proof or reasoning.  

Thats nice.  I don’t have time for that.  Btw, its not your math that is wrong, its your logic.  

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10 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

How does mine get less accurate? It isn’t a projection but an actual current state ranking based on actual schedule strength. 
 

Let me put it to you this way: if the season ended before kickoff tomorrow, would we be drafting #3 overall (as is suggested by tankathon) or #1 overall (based on math of our ACTUAL opponent’s W/L records)?

Well we cannot assume that the rest of the season will be cancelled. In that case yours would be better but only in that case.

Each game that goes bye the 16 game project ion becomes more accurate because the opponents overall record gets closer to the final number.

But up to date does not account for that so unless the remaining winning percentage of the teams we play is the same as the games already played your number is either well low or high and gives a very false expectation of the final result especially since to get the #1 pick we essentially need to lose out making each opponent to be played winning percentage stronger than it appears.

Nothing is wrong with your picture it just becomes less accurate over time whereas the Tankathon method becomes more accurate

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Well we cannot assume that the rest of the season will be cancelled. In that case yours would be better but only in that case.

Each game that goes bye the 16 game project ion becomes more accurate because the opponents overall record gets closer to the final number.

But up to date does not account for that so unless the remaining winning percentage of the teams we play is the same as the games already played your number is either well low or high and gives a very false expectation of the final result especially since to get the #1 pick we essentially need to lose out making each opponent to be played winning percentage stronger than it appears.

Nothing is wrong with your picture it just becomes less accurate over time whereas the Tankathon method becomes more accurate

Thanks for your response.

I’m in no way a math expert or logician, and you’re right in that the Tankathon method will eventually demonstrate a number that is more accurate to the truth.  As of right now, calculating actual opponents versus scheduled opponents and updating on a weekly basis is a better reflection of true SOS as a tie breaker.  

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