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Bad Beats: Ron Rivera attempting 2-pt conversion at end of game


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I'm sorry, but that was the wrong call. You tie the game up 20-20 and go to OT most likely, and then you try to win in OT. 

I'm pissed because I had the Steelers-2.5, the Titans -3.5, and the Giants -1.5. I threw $40 on that 3 Leg Parlay and just missed winning $256.32 by that half point. 

That sucked.

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Since 2015 (when the league pushed the XPA distance back), this is how teams have fared, on average, when attempting an XPA vs 2-point conversion:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/1/30/21112250/two-point-conversion-percentage-stats-success-rate-extra-point-nfl-dorktown

image.thumb.png.7c2c3efeba7d6a28868427be4a83c882.png

 

21 of the 32 teams have been leaving points on the board when they go for 1 rather than 2.  

Rivera might have messed up by going for 2 there, primarily because Kyle Allen isn't exactly a trusted option.  But hell, they were 1-4.  Might as well go for the W.  It's not like the XPA is automatic anymore.  

In general, teams should be going for 2 a lot more.  If my team had a competent offense and a less than stellar kicker, I would go for 2 every single time.  Or, at the very least, I'd give it a shot for a few games if the season has been going south.

 

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Since 2015 (when the league pushed the XPA distance back), this is how teams have fared, on average, when attempting an XPA vs 2-point conversion:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/1/30/21112250/two-point-conversion-percentage-stats-success-rate-extra-point-nfl-dorktown

image.thumb.png.7c2c3efeba7d6a28868427be4a83c882.png

 

21 of the 32 teams have been leaving points on the board when they go for 1 rather than 2.  

Rivera might have messed up by going for 2 there, primarily because Kyle Allen isn't exactly a trusted option.  But hell, they were 1-4.  Might as well go for the W.  It's not like the XPA is automatic anymore.  

In general, teams should be going for 2 a lot more.  If my team had a competent offense and a less than stellar kicker, I would go for 2 every single time.  Or, at the very least, I'd give it a shot for a few games if the season has been going south.

 

Agreed.

I have been saying forever that teams with good offenses should go for two all the time 

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How's fun would it be to have Trevor Lawrence, an offensive coach like Bienemy, stud WRs, TE, RBs, and always go for 2 because we average over 32 points a game! F*ck extra points, just become so good at 2 point conversions everyone knows your going, but rarely get stopped. 

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Ummmm, did you see the Romeo Crennel decision, goes up 7, and goes for 2?  lmfao.  Titans march right down the field and easily tie it up.  No need for a 2 point conversion because Crennel didnt kick it.

Has to be the first time that's ever happened.  Dumbest sh*t I've ever seen.  A defensive coach, so scared of the Titans offense, he assuemd they'd not only score a TD w/ 1 minute left but they'd convert as well.

Crazy

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7 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

I'm sorry, but that was the wrong call. You tie the game up 20-20 and go to OT most likely, and then you try to win in OT. 

I'm pissed because I had the Steelers-2.5, the Titans -3.5, and the Giants -1.5. I threw $40 on that 3 Leg Parlay and just missed winning $256.32 by that half point. 

That sucked.

Might I recommend betting against the Jets. I bet against the Jets every week. And i win every week. Jets are 0-6 against the spread 

Screenshot_20201018-191936.thumb.jpg.d74176284c01e52429877c5557a7af81.jpg

You can even change the spread and get better odds because Vegas hasn't figured out just how bad we are yet.

Screenshot_20201018-191837.thumb.jpg.edac80c2a969c34cbe46fa0f6502d0fb.jpg

There is no line thats too big

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1 hour ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Might I recommend betting against the Jets. I bet against the Jets every week. And i win every week. Jets are 0-6 against the spread 

Screenshot_20201018-191936.thumb.jpg.d74176284c01e52429877c5557a7af81.jpg

You can even change the spread and get better odds because Vegas hasn't figured out just how bad we are yet.

Screenshot_20201018-191837.thumb.jpg.edac80c2a969c34cbe46fa0f6502d0fb.jpg

There is no line thats too big

Congrats!

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3 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

What are the odds of scoring on a 2 point conversion vs winning the game in OT? 

The league average for going for 2 is a little bit over 50 %.  Obviously, Washington has a well below average offense so you can't count on the >50 % odds there.

The odds of winning in OT are slightly below 50 %, because of the chance of a tie.

You also have to factor in the 5 % chance that Dustin Hopkins would have missed the XPA.  I think he's a little above league average in the XPA department, but still.

The math suggests going for 2 was an OK decision.  Not great but not terrible either.

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3 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

What are the odds of scoring on a 2 point conversion vs winning the game in OT? 

The league average of two point conversions the past two seasons is 49.4%. One point conversion rate is 94%, which means you have a 6% chance of missing and losing anyway, and then your odds are 50-50 heading into overtime. 
 

I like going for two, particularly if your offense is good and/or in rhythm.

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8 minutes ago, PS17 said:

The league average of two point conversions the past two seasons is 49.4%. One point conversion rate is 94%, which means you have a 6% chance of missing and losing anyway, and then your odds are 50-50 heading into overtime. 
 

I like going for two, particularly if your offense is good and/or in rhythm.

And its actually even higher (by a slight margin) when you adjust for 2 types of anomalies. 

From 2015-19, there were 8 instances where a team scored at the end of a game and took a knee rather than attempt the XPA.  Those went down as failed 2-pt conversions. 

Also, when a team has a bad snap on an XPA, their only option becomes going for 2.  10 times from 2015-19 that happened and the team failed each time.  It counts as a 2-point failure in those instances, NOT a missed XPA.

Factor those 18 instances out and the success rate goes over 50 %.

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3 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Might I recommend betting against the Jets. I bet against the Jets every week. And i win every week. Jets are 0-6 against the spread 

Screenshot_20201018-191936.thumb.jpg.d74176284c01e52429877c5557a7af81.jpg

You can even change the spread and get better odds because Vegas hasn't figured out just how bad we are yet.

Screenshot_20201018-191837.thumb.jpg.edac80c2a969c34cbe46fa0f6502d0fb.jpg

There is no line thats too big

Betting against the Jets in 2020 is just loaning your money to the bookie for 3 hours

don't worry 

you're going to get it back soon 

with interest 

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4 hours ago, JiF said:

Ummmm, did you see the Romeo Crennel decision, goes up 7, and goes for 2?  lmfao.  Titans march right down the field and easily tie it up.  No need for a 2 point conversion because Crennel didnt kick it.

Has to be the first time that's ever happened.  Dumbest sh*t I've ever seen.  A defensive coach, so scared of the Titans offense, he assuemd they'd not only score a TD w/ 1 minute left but they'd convert as well.

Crazy

Just as I defended Belichick on the famous 4th and 3 play between the colts and pats many moons ago, I gotta defend Crennel here. They both made educated decisions to put the game away without giving the other offense a chance, knowing that their defenses weren't going to stop them. Clearly, their decisions didn't work out but the logic behind them proved to be true: The Colts and Titans both came back to win it given the chance. 

If Brady and Faulk (I think, or maybe it was BJGE) had connected there, it would have been game over, and if the Texans converted, it would have been game over. Whether you're talking about Brady or Watson, both should be trusted to get it done. 

In Rivera's case, I also don't hate the decision, although I'd be more weary of it given that we're talking about Kyle Allen as opposed to a Brady or Deshaun. Still, in an offense driven league where defenses play against the offense, the rules, and the refs, I like the idea of going for the win more often than not.

Once we get us a FQB and an HC/OC/playcaller worth a damn, you'll see me on here arguing that we should be going for 2 instead of 1 after every TD, not just in certain situations!

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27 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Just as I defended Belichick on the famous 4th and 3 play between the colts and pats many moons ago, I gotta defend Crennel here. They both made educated decisions to put the game away without giving the other offense a chance, knowing that their defenses weren't going to stop them. Clearly, their decisions didn't work out but the logic behind them proved to be true: The Colts and Titans both came back to win it given the chance. 

If Brady and Faulk (I think, or maybe it was BJGE) had connected there, it would have been game over, and if the Texans converted, it would have been game over. Whether you're talking about Brady or Watson, both should be trusted to get it done. 

In Rivera's case, I also don't hate the decision, although I'd be more weary of it given that we're talking about Kyle Allen as opposed to a Brady or Deshaun. Still, in an offense driven league where defenses play against the offense, the rules, and the refs, I like the idea of going for the win more often than not.

Once we get us a FQB and an HC/OC/playcaller worth a damn, you'll see me on here arguing that we should be going for 2 instead of 1 after every TD, not just in certain situations!

Good stuff and most of the time I would agree with you but I think there is a difference when it comes to points that late in a game vs. a 4th down and whatever situation.  Going up 8 vs. 7 is a huge difference.  Not only from what it requires to tie the game but also when you think about just what it does from a psychological perspective.  On both sides of the ball.  That fired up the Titans, the D came running off hooting and hollering, th Titans had belief vs. seeing a dejected defense come off the field and the offense now knowing how much harder their jobs just got.  And while the Titans have a great offense it's not like they're a quick strike offense.   And I think it benefits the Texans D because they dont have to play so tight and nervous.  You get a little comfort and momentum from knowing your offense gave you an 8 point cushion. 

idk - though call, I agree with BB's decision because it was Manning on the other sideline but I also think situationally, they're drastically different. 

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