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Justin Herbert

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This guy is redefining the standard of success for a rookie QB.

 

It's unreal. He's literally walked into the league, and played at an elite level from day 1. This is NOT normal. At all.

 

And this guy took all his snaps in college out of the shotgun. Never called a play, never ran a pro-style offense. Nobody, in their right mind, would have predicted this. 

 

I don't know to say. I'm speechless. Scouts know nothing about these players, its like their ability to make informed decisions hasn't improved at all. Dart throws. 

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23 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

Maybe he was held back by never being under center or having limited control at Oregon. Either way, good for him.

Probably. 

I'm just wondering how so many 'analysts' whiffed on him. Like PFF.

 

 

I still like PFF, btw. But this was a swing and a miss. 

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43 minutes ago, JiF said:

Why wasnt Justin Herbert a "generational talent" but Trevor Lawrence is?   2 QB's went ahead of this guy and they are nowhere near as good.

6'6 230 cannon arm, accurate as can be, takes care of the ball, ran a 4.6. 

TL has no chance of doing this at the next level.  He can barely complete forward passes and Herbert is attacking every level of the field like he's a bigger faster stronger Aaron Rodgers.

This is why I never ever listen the talking head morons wannabe scouts.  They're ******* clueless. 

 

Very true. Scouts can only look backwards. Predicting the future is not an exact science, never has been. Guys like herbert, josh allen, to a lesser extent, mahomes, watson, all had their doubters. 

 

I think the knock on Herbert was his lack of experience calling plays out of the pocket. He was all shot-gun, all the time. Which doesn't translate to NFL. Marcus mariota ran the same gimmicky nonsense at Oregon, and he was a bust. He also had a quiet, understated demeanor, which is kind of a 'red flag' in the NFL. 

Even during hard knocks, the coaches were knocking him for inconsistent cadence at the line of scrimmage; the defense knew whether it was a run or a pass before the snap. That was basic stuff. 

Now he's out there, playing like Russell Wilson. 

 

It makes no sense. 

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Eh, Tua is still an unknown, but Burrow has looked good for the Bengals so far. 

TL is supposed to be that as well. 6'6 215 with a great arm, accurate, not turnover prone, and can run if need be. 

 

Burrow is getting his line blown up on every other play. He's making plays under duress, he doesn't flinch. 

The stats won't always be there, but if they get him some protection, he'll be really good. 

 

Herbert is a different class though. He's playing at an MVP level, although nobody will care to admit it because they're too shell-shocked by it. 

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20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

 

Herbert scored a 689 on QBASE.  A better score than Pat Mahomes and Kyler Murray got.  

You know, the metric you guys like to sh*t on for not being at all predictive.  

 

QBASE has alex smith as the greatest QB prospect of all time. Is their number-crunching model more accurate than the others?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/qbase-2020

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Yes, it absolutely is.  Anyone can cherry pick a few mistakes here and there.  They correctly peg who will bust 75 % of the time, and are overall correct a little over 50 % of the time.

No scout or front office exec nails QB projections with a rate that high.  Not even close.

You just pointed out how scouts and "experts" know nothing and whiffed on Herbert, but QBASE didn't, and still think it has no validity?  Yikes.  There's something to their model and they'll continue to get this stuff right at a high level, for a position on the field that is almost impossible to predict otherwise.  

I wasn't thinking anything, its the first time i have even heard of it. 

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On 10/26/2020 at 6:17 PM, ryu79 said:

Maybe he was held back by never being under center or having limited control at Oregon. Either way, good for him.

 

CBS did an interesting article on this.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chargers-unleash-justin-herbert-heres-why-rookie-qb-has-looked-better-in-the-nfl-than-he-did-at-oregon/

To summarize, the Chargers trust him to make big plays and throw it downfield, especially on early downs. He's had good protection, clean pockets. He was limited by Oregon's play calling his senior year, they used him more as a game-manager. 

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6 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

Absolutely, couldn't agree more! I just posted this in the the thread about Jax projected to get the 1st overall:

 

Maybe Fields wouldnt be a bad thing?

I dont know anything about Lawrence but I feel like Scouts/Media/Experts have been piss poor at projecting QBs. When was the last time the "can't miss" "safest" or "generational" QB prospect actually ended up being really good, letalone the best QB in that draft?

Mariota? Winston? Mayfield? Darnold? Rosen? Trubisky? Goff? Wentz? 

Watson went 12. Mahomes 11. Jackson was what, 32? 

I feel like the NFL can't scout/project college QBs for SH*T these days. I'll admit I dont know anything about Lawrence but I'm too jaded to get ANY amount of QB hype credence anymore. I'm not going to cry over 2nd overall, If Douglas wants a QB, I dont have any trust that Fields wont be better. Hell, if history is any indicator, the FQB of the class wont be in the top 10. 

 

to suggest that other QBs might be better isn't a knock on Lawrence. 

 

Trey Lance and Zach Wilson having better pro careers than Lawrence is not unthinkable.

Trading down from 1.01 (or not taking QB there) makes a lot of sense. But i doubt the front office is bold enough to do this. 

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1 hour ago, NorthCoastJetsFan said:

Now they think it's a bad move. At the time, Lamar was looked at as only a runner without accuracy, and Allen was just a guy with a strong arm and a strong body.

Drafting QBs is the biggest crapshoot of the draft. If the team does not have the right coach, a decent OL, and at least one better than average receiver, all bets are off.

This is why I would be very cautious about drafting a QB with the #1 pick with the Jets scenario. There are just too many holes to fill. In addition, while it used to be that excellent NFL QBs were only available infrequently, they now seem to be available every year.

It's less of a crapshoot if you:

1. understand the rules/evolution of the game, and remain current with the times (instead of looking backwards).

2. value 'un-teachable' traits over others - such as natural, innate athleticism.

 

The jets, like a number of other franchises, are turning it into a crapshoot by overcomplicating the process, and underrating GOOD prospects. 

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3 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I hope whoever we pick ends up being a FQB for us, but the true determination of that will be in years 7. 8, 9 - not 1, 2, 3; and it'll have slightly more to do with the circumstances that he's in than his individual abilities alone.  

 

BUT I CANT WAIT THAT LONG, DAMMIT!!!!!!!!! 

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10 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

Based on what? I'd agree with this during the past decade, but what have you seen from JD to make you say this in one offseason that was spent beginning to dig us out from the disaster of the last 2 front offices

 

Not based on anything, just my gut feeling. Managing backlash and ownership pressure will be crucial. Taking QB at 1.01 is the 'safe' option. 

 

I'm becoming more and more comfortable with the idea of trading away the 1.01 to take Sewell. 

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Chargers are still a bad team (3-7). 

Too bad we'll never know if Herbert is any good until he's in a good situation.

 

he's in a good situation. 

I don't think the Chargers are a bad team. Their 3-7 record belies how competitive they've been. 3 of those losses could have been wins, but for one play here or there. 

They've had some bad luck, and they've also made mistakes at crucial moments. Some avoidable turnovers. 

If they had a full strength defense, with Derwin james, bosa, ingram, etc. playing a full season together, it would have been different. Overall, they got a good roster there. 

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7 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

I finally have some faith in a GM and all I can say is that if that is the move he wants to make I am all for it. Obviously it's in the teams best interest for Darnold to be the answer. A top 2 pick would be a lot more valuable to this team if they dont need a QB. I feel like it's a foregone conclusion at this point that they have to go QB with the top pick, but I believe in JD and if he ended feeling like he could pass on a QB and get talent on all areas of this team, I would be encouraged. 

 

There's no need to pass on QB. You draft a QB lower down the draft and have him compete with Darnold.

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