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Justin Herbert

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Note that Herbert's 300+ yard games and 3+ TD games came at different times.

So in all 4 starts to begin his career he has either thrown for 300+ yards OR tossed 3+ TD passes.

Too bad you can't evaluate QB's on bad teams though.  A real shame, the Chargers will never know what they have.

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8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I can certainty see how you would confuse keenan allen, hunter henry, mike williams with the vast array of jets weapons. 

And also know that with Adam Gase Herbert would be throwing for 400 yards a game and 5 tds per game.

 

You mean like how Phillip Rivers did when he threw for a 23/20 TD:INT ratio last season with the same weapons?  And wasn't Anthony Lynn getting roundly criticized (with some thinking he is on the hot seat) earlier this season when Tyrod Taylor was under center?  Those complaints sure went away quickly!

If WR's truly make the QB, then why do franchise QB's have success for so long?  Why aren't they completely reliant on their weppinz to succeed?  Why have even "middling" franchise QB's like, say, Matthew Stafford, continue to produce year after year even in times where they have crappy or mediocre receivers?

It can be simultaneously true that Herbert is already far better than Darnold AND has vastly superior weapons, you know.  These aren't mutually exclusive points.

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Keenan Allen

Rivers (in 2019) and Tyrod sucked while throwing to him.

Meanwhile, our QB is only definitely better than Luke Falk and just a little better than 35-year old and disinterested Joe Flacco.

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Just now, Losmeister said:

@Jetsfan80

u may as well try to stop a dog from eating its own vomit...

 

 

I'm just entertained by the mental gymnastics.  

There are few things entertaining about this season so I'll take what I can get.

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3 minutes ago, Welp said:

Wait we really trying to discount the Chargers weapons because of Tyrod Taylor and Phillip Rivers in 2019? This is beyond comedic considering Rivers threw for 4600 yards last year with the same weapons and Taylor is just garbage in general. No one is saying Baker Mayfield is a franchise QB because he outperformed Tyrod Taylor in 2018.

No one is discounting weppinz.  The point is QB's don't only produce because of their weppinz.  They produce because they're also very good at being QB's. 

Darnold is a bad QB with bad weppinz.  Herbert is a good QB with good weppinz. 

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5 minutes ago, Welp said:

Just like Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones? Why don't we wait for more than a few games and when defenses figure them out before you already write the book on their career.

Mayfield and Jones suck too.  I didn't buy in on Jones at all from the jump, either.  Mayfield, meh, we were duped by the rookie season.  It happens.  That doesn't mean anything when it comes to Herbert.

At least Herbert has a shot at being a franchise guy, unlike Darnold.  He certainly looks the part so far.  

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Just now, jetfan39 said:

He doesn't have Adam Gase having him throw 3 Yard passes behind the line of scrimmage

What was the excuse when Bates was OC?

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1 minute ago, jetfan39 said:

No excuses other than being a rookie limited experience. Let's let it go at that & not hijack the thread. My reply was kind of tongue in cheek ☺️ no

Herbert doesn't seem to need this excuse.

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He was the youngest starting QB in NFL history?


lol. Always something to excuse that giant baby.
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Do ya think it helps a QB to have targets like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry?  Oh  and an OL that actually affords Herbert with a clean pocket.   Ask yourself this - Has Sam Darnold had anyone even remotely as talented as Allen, Williams or Henry?????????  Not to mention that Gase's offense looks like a scheme intended to compete in the special olympics.
During Sam's rookie year, the first thought in his mind was to throw the ball downfield.  Last year and this year the first thought in Sam's mind is how much insurance does he have.



Yawn
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11 hours ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

His point is valid, though. 

Not really, no.

Having good WR's doesn't negate a QB's good performance, nor does it excuse a QB's poor performance.  QB's still have to process and make the throws. 

Darnold has been missing open WR's or holding onto the ball forever for years now.  That has NOTHING to do with the weppinz argument.  

Darnold had 4 passing yards in the 2nd half yesterday.  4.  He's not throwing to middle schoolers out there.  Herbert is dominating as a rookie while Darnold's few remaining supporters continue to pile on to the excuse list for why he sh*ts his pants every week.

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11 hours ago, Vader said:

Everyone knew Darnold was a gunslinger, too young and not enough experience. He’s a diet Favre / diet Steve Young mashup. He will be successful somewhere.

But he is not ready to carry an entire roster. That’s unfair.

Gunslingers have to actually throw for TD's from time to time.  It was the same argument made for Mark Sanchez, and a terrible one.  A guy who throws wildly into traffic for INT's but doesn't move the ball for nearly enough scores to win games isn't a gunslinger.  He just sucks.  

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3 hours ago, ryu79 said:

Cynical. You cut that a week earlier and Sanchez was 3-0, with 4 TDs/2INTs and Jets fans and media were in love with him and Rex's Jets. He threw for only 170 yards against the Patriots week 2 but picked up a ton of 3rd downs and that was a huge win. The wheels absolutely came off from there and he was wearing a wristband with instructions like a month later.

Herbert is clearly very talented, and I hope he holds up (he's very fun to watch), but patience is a virtue when it comes to evaluating rookies early.

 

He only threw for 200+ yards in 1 of those 4 games.

He was 3-0 on the back of the defense and running game.  Just like he was for ALL of his "successful" seasons as the Jets' QB.  He was carried.  We just didn't think that at the time, because we hoped he'd become something more than what he was.  

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3 hours ago, predator_05 said:

I don't know to say. I'm speechless. Scouts know nothing about these players, its like their ability to make informed decisions hasn't improved at all. Dart throws. 

 

3 hours ago, JiF said:

This is why I never ever listen the talking head morons wannabe scouts.  They're ******* clueless. 

 

2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

Probably. 

I'm just wondering how so many 'analysts' whiffed on him. Like PFF.

I still like PFF, btw. But this was a swing and a miss. 

 

Herbert scored a 689 on QBASE.  A better score than Pat Mahomes and Kyler Murray got.  

You know, the metric you guys like to sh*t on for not being at all predictive.  

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1 hour ago, ryu79 said:

Does it matter? He didn't even do that and the press had labeled him the Sanchize and everyone was super excited after the first few weeks. 

Yes, it does matter.  We're not talking about media hype here.  We're talking about actual performance.  Sanchez was carried.  Herbert is dominating for a bad team.

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5 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

QBASE has alex smith as the greatest QB prospect of all time. Is their number-crunching model more accurate than the others?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/qbase-2020

 

Yes, it absolutely is.  Anyone can cherry pick a few mistakes here and there.  They correctly peg who will bust 75 % of the time, and are overall correct a little over 50 % of the time.

No scout or front office exec nails QB projections with a rate that high.  Not even close.

You just pointed out how scouts and "experts" know nothing and whiffed on Herbert, but QBASE didn't, and still think it has no validity?  Yikes.  There's something to their model and they'll continue to get this stuff right at a high level, for a position on the field that is almost impossible to predict otherwise.  

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

And he's not better than either one of them so it remains to be stupid.

Find me scouts or front office people who thought he'd be THIS good.  

You and predator just finished explaining how scouts, experts and front offices know nothing when it comes to QB's.  QBASE does, and pretty consistently.  And you guys continue to sh*t on it at every turn.  

Burrow got a very high score too, btw.

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Just now, predator_05 said:

I wasn't thinking anything, its the first time i have even heard of it. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JiF said:

He went #6 overall, did the Chargers take him at #6 thinking he was going to bad? 

I very much doubt they thought he'd be this good, right away.  And no, I bet QBASE didn't either.  Otherwise he wouldn't have been the 3rd QB off the board.  They'd have done everything in their power to move up to the # 2 or 3 spot to ensure they got him.  Instead they played "stick and pick".  

Remember when Washington and Detroit were entertaining trading down from 2 or 3 and ended up taking defensive players when the bids weren't high enough?  Yeah, that's a sign no one was completely sold on Herbert (or Tua).

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Totally forgot how I slapped your little tushy in this thread and you didnt touch a response.  Yummy reminder. 

You weren't worth my time.  Your "math is gay" shtick gets old after a while.  You're not going to be convinced no matter what anyone says, you stubborn mule.

QBASE is far from perfect, but it's highly useful.  You won't even acknowledge that.

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18 minutes ago, JiF said:

Why do you constantly try to spin and paint me in a light that is inaccurate when you're defeated?  You remind me of someone... 

Go type what I read and respond to it.  I acknowledged it's useful and said it should not be used as a determining factor because it's highly flawed.  I know you cant defend this so "I'm not worth your time" (liar, you love me) because I'm right but I'll simply remind you of the highlights; The flaw in their formula has nothing to do with math it's completely subjective malarkey that they use to compile their "data", they are not telling you anything you didnt already know ie; Burrow is the #1 prospect, there isnt a competitive tool to compare this is better than anything else out there and it ultimately is 50/50 on when they are right and wrong and I dont know how you can put any stock into something with those types of results.

 

You act like what they're putting out there is conventional wisdom.  They sniffed out many of the supposedly "can't miss" prospects as being likely busts, and certainly had higher scores for others that were risky bets. 

If everyone "already knew" about these prospects, then the scouts, analysts, front office execs and JN experts wouldn't get this stuff wrong at a higher rate than QBASE.  

No one knew Mahomes would be what he was, yet QBASE gave him the highest score from the 2017 QB Class.  That stands for something, considering that no Air Raid QB had ever succeeded in the pros prior.  

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32 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Josh Allen all over again.

Eh.  Herbert had a 689 QBASE score.  Josh Allen's was -83. 

Allen completed just 56 % of his throws in college.  He also was pretty awful his first 2 NFL seasons.  Herbert started 43 games in school and completed 64 % of his throws.

Not the same prospect really, at all.  Allen was a lot closer to a Christian Hackenberg who could run than he was to Herbert.

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15 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray say hi!

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12 hours ago, pdxgreen said:

Unless your names Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Pele, Diego Maradona, Messi or Wayne Gretzky. You're not generational.  

I'd put Elway in that category.  While he didn't quite live up to his billing, at least not until later in his career, he was absolutely a generational prospect, who could have potentially been a superstar in either sport he tried.

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4 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

In Darnold's defense, he would probably have 25 more yards per game with Keenan Allen. 

Thus bumping him up to 199 yards per game this season and 241 yards per game for his career.  Superstar!!!

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

And while Luton certainly makes you feel silly watching the Jets, he's got a little more than Chris Conley to throw to, that's just a bad troll job.  Chark, 2nd RD pick is a baller, Eifert was once an elite TE, Shenault is a 1st rounder and James Robinson is good. 

Yes, every QB in the league has better weapons than Sam Darnold.  

But there's still no way Darnold would be throwing for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs with the Chargers or Jaguars.  Not a chance in hell.  

Luton, a 6th round pick who was the Jaguars' QB3 a week ago, doing in his debut what Darnold, a top 5 pick, has only done 4x in 32 starts is simply pathetic, no matter who each of them have to throw to.

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12 minutes ago, JiF said:

I hate when you edit my posts and then begin to make an argument I clearly wasnt making and clearly wouldnt make if you simply read my post.  I didnt say Darnold would do the same or disagreed with how pathetic it is.  In fact, numerous times I said Darnold sucks and is a mega bust. ass munch

The bigger issue you should be pointing out was my other point, that 2 years in a row, the Jags have played a 6th round rookie and got production out of them.  Meanwhile, the Jets took a QB in the 4th round this season yet we see Flacco when Darnold goes down. 

 

So you're trying to make Luton a Joe Douglas/James Morgan thing.  I'll save that argument for another thread.

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1 hour ago, pdxgreen said:

I may be crazy but I think he picked  the wrong sport. I read some of his scouting reports coming out of Oneonta that summer that he played.  And it's literally like "HOF level, next Dale Murphy, 30 homer/100 RBI's a year."  Mattingly/Winfield/Elway would have chewed up 80's pitching like toothpicks.  The amount of great baseball players who could have been great but became even subpar football players is nuts.

Maybe he could have been great in baseball.  But Elway was one of the top 10 QB's to ever play the game, and he won 2 Super Bowls (and went to 5).  I don't think you hindsight that.  

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Update, entering Week 11's matchup:

 

In 8 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has four 300+ yard games and four 3+ TD games.

In 32 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

 

The Chargers are still a bad team (2-7). 

I'm quite confident Herbert will add another 300+ yard day to his list against the Jets, and am reasonably confident he'll get 3 TDs, too.

Too bad we'll never know if Herbert is any good until he's in a good situation.

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Update following today's game:

Justin Herbert (9 career starts)

  • 300+ yard games:  5
  • 3+ TD games:  5

Sam Darnold (32 career starts)

  • 300+ yard games:  4
  • 3+ TD games:  3

 

The Chargers are still a bad team (3-7). 

Too bad we'll never know if Herbert is any good until he's in a good situation.

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4 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Jesus man, 3-7 and he has keenan allen from day one and mike wiliams and hunter henry and a decent oline.

Phillip Rivers had that same exact supporting cast and only managed two 3+ TD games last season.  What's more, Rivers hasn't had a 4-TD game since early in the 2016 season.  Herbert got one of those in his 4th start.

You can explain away decent play out of a rookie QB with the weppinnz argument.  You can't explain away Pro Bowl caliber play.  

This thread wasn't just designed to point out how bad Darnold is.  It's to demonstrate just how good Herbert has been immediately out of the gates.  

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