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24 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

This guy is redefining the standard of success for a rookie QB.

 

It's unreal. He's literally walked into the league, and played at an elite level from day 1. This is NOT normal. At all.

 

And this guy took all his snaps in college out of the shotgun. Never called a play, never ran a pro-style offense. Nobody, in their right mind, would have predicted this. 

 

I don't know to say. I'm speechless. Scouts know nothing about these players, its like their ability to make informed decisions hasn't improved at all. Dart throws. 

Maybe he was held back by never being under center or having limited control at Oregon. Either way, good for him.

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23 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

Maybe he was held back by never being under center or having limited control at Oregon. Either way, good for him.

Probably. 

I'm just wondering how so many 'analysts' whiffed on him. Like PFF.

 

 

I still like PFF, btw. But this was a swing and a miss. 

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40 minutes ago, JiF said:

Why wasnt Justin Herbert a "generational talent" but Trevor Lawrence is?   2 QB's went ahead of this guy and they are nowhere near as good.

6'6 230 cannon arm, accurate as can be, takes care of the ball, ran a 4.6. 

TL has no chance of doing this at the next level.  He can barely complete forward passes and Herbert is attacking every level of the field like he's a bigger faster stronger Aaron Rodgers.

This is why I never ever listen the talking head morons wannabe scouts.  They're ******* clueless. 

Eh, Tua is still an unknown, but Burrow has looked good for the Bengals so far. 

TL is supposed to be that as well. 6'6 215 with a great arm, accurate, not turnover prone, and can run if need be. 

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43 minutes ago, JiF said:

Why wasnt Justin Herbert a "generational talent" but Trevor Lawrence is?   2 QB's went ahead of this guy and they are nowhere near as good.

6'6 230 cannon arm, accurate as can be, takes care of the ball, ran a 4.6. 

TL has no chance of doing this at the next level.  He can barely complete forward passes and Herbert is attacking every level of the field like he's a bigger faster stronger Aaron Rodgers.

This is why I never ever listen the talking head morons wannabe scouts.  They're ******* clueless. 

 

Very true. Scouts can only look backwards. Predicting the future is not an exact science, never has been. Guys like herbert, josh allen, to a lesser extent, mahomes, watson, all had their doubters. 

 

I think the knock on Herbert was his lack of experience calling plays out of the pocket. He was all shot-gun, all the time. Which doesn't translate to NFL. Marcus mariota ran the same gimmicky nonsense at Oregon, and he was a bust. He also had a quiet, understated demeanor, which is kind of a 'red flag' in the NFL. 

Even during hard knocks, the coaches were knocking him for inconsistent cadence at the line of scrimmage; the defense knew whether it was a run or a pass before the snap. That was basic stuff. 

Now he's out there, playing like Russell Wilson. 

 

It makes no sense. 

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Eh, Tua is still an unknown, but Burrow has looked good for the Bengals so far. 

TL is supposed to be that as well. 6'6 215 with a great arm, accurate, not turnover prone, and can run if need be. 

 

Burrow is getting his line blown up on every other play. He's making plays under duress, he doesn't flinch. 

The stats won't always be there, but if they get him some protection, he'll be really good. 

 

Herbert is a different class though. He's playing at an MVP level, although nobody will care to admit it because they're too shell-shocked by it. 

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16 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Burrow is getting his line blown up on every other play. He's making plays under duress, he doesn't flinch. 

The stats won't always be there, but if they get him some protection, he'll be really good. 

 

Herbert is a different class though. He's playing at an MVP level, although nobody will care to admit it because they're too shell-shocked by it. 

If i were a coach gameplanning to face Herbert (cough cough), I'd go back and look at the tape that made PFF think he would fail at this level and try to create the scenarios where he struggled (there must be some for him to have gone relatively under the radar like this). 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Why wasnt Justin Herbert a "generational talent" but Trevor Lawrence is?   2 QB's went ahead of this guy and they are nowhere near as good. 

It's a stretch to say Burrow is nowhere near as good. Burrow will be in the same tier as Herbert if not better long term IMO, but he's been impressive too. Tua hasn't played a snap so we can't judge him yet.

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On 10/24/2020 at 3:56 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

In 4 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has two 300+ yard games and two 3+ TD games.

In 30 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

The Chargers are a bad team (1-4).  

So what gives?

Keenan Allen

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On 10/24/2020 at 4:10 PM, ryu79 said:

N is really low to be making any extrapolation on Herbert.

This many games in Sanchez looked like Steve Young Jr. and had already beaten the Patriots at home. 

I hope Herbert keeps it up cause the league needs players like him, but it's early...

Remind me again when Sanchez threw 5 TDS his rookie year? 

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4 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Remind me again when Sanchez threw 5 TDS his rookie year? 

Does it matter? He didn't even do that and the press had labeled him the Sanchize and everyone was super excited after the first few weeks. 

Remarkable that it needs to be said that I am not comparing them as players. I could have used Baker or Dimes as the examples - the point is that the league hasn't adjusted yet to Herbert - I hope when they do he continues to perform like this - but a lot of QBs flatter to deceive. (Note: I wrote my original response to this thread before that 70 yard bomb yesterday!).

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He really ****ed us staying in an extra year.  He would have been available at 3 and someone would have traded up with us for him.  Instead we got another DT.

Of course, Macc would have blown the pics we would have gotten out of any trade....so there's that consulation prize.

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11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 


Yawn

 

 

But weppppponzzzzzzz

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On 10/24/2020 at 4:24 PM, Greenbloodblitz said:

I believe Herbert is a franchise QB he was the best QB in his draft class.

I agree, and that's no disrespect to Burrow who's having a great rookie year too.

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11 hours ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

His point is valid, though. 

Not really, no.

Having good WR's doesn't negate a QB's good performance, nor does it excuse a QB's poor performance.  QB's still have to process and make the throws. 

Darnold has been missing open WR's or holding onto the ball forever for years now.  That has NOTHING to do with the weppinz argument.  

Darnold had 4 passing yards in the 2nd half yesterday.  4.  He's not throwing to middle schoolers out there.  Herbert is dominating as a rookie while Darnold's few remaining supporters continue to pile on to the excuse list for why he sh*ts his pants every week.

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11 hours ago, Vader said:

Everyone knew Darnold was a gunslinger, too young and not enough experience. He’s a diet Favre / diet Steve Young mashup. He will be successful somewhere.

But he is not ready to carry an entire roster. That’s unfair.

Gunslingers have to actually throw for TD's from time to time.  It was the same argument made for Mark Sanchez, and a terrible one.  A guy who throws wildly into traffic for INT's but doesn't move the ball for nearly enough scores to win games isn't a gunslinger.  He just sucks.  

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3 hours ago, ryu79 said:

Cynical. You cut that a week earlier and Sanchez was 3-0, with 4 TDs/2INTs and Jets fans and media were in love with him and Rex's Jets. He threw for only 170 yards against the Patriots week 2 but picked up a ton of 3rd downs and that was a huge win. The wheels absolutely came off from there and he was wearing a wristband with instructions like a month later.

Herbert is clearly very talented, and I hope he holds up (he's very fun to watch), but patience is a virtue when it comes to evaluating rookies early.

 

He only threw for 200+ yards in 1 of those 4 games.

He was 3-0 on the back of the defense and running game.  Just like he was for ALL of his "successful" seasons as the Jets' QB.  He was carried.  We just didn't think that at the time, because we hoped he'd become something more than what he was.  

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3 hours ago, predator_05 said:

I don't know to say. I'm speechless. Scouts know nothing about these players, its like their ability to make informed decisions hasn't improved at all. Dart throws. 

 

3 hours ago, JiF said:

This is why I never ever listen the talking head morons wannabe scouts.  They're ******* clueless. 

 

2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

Probably. 

I'm just wondering how so many 'analysts' whiffed on him. Like PFF.

I still like PFF, btw. But this was a swing and a miss. 

 

Herbert scored a 689 on QBASE.  A better score than Pat Mahomes and Kyler Murray got.  

You know, the metric you guys like to sh*t on for not being at all predictive.  

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1 hour ago, ryu79 said:

Does it matter? He didn't even do that and the press had labeled him the Sanchize and everyone was super excited after the first few weeks. 

Yes, it does matter.  We're not talking about media hype here.  We're talking about actual performance.  Sanchez was carried.  Herbert is dominating for a bad team.

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On 10/24/2020 at 4:29 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I'm just entertained by the mental gymnastics.  

There are few things entertaining about this season so I'll take what I can get.

tenor.gif

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20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

 

Herbert scored a 689 on QBASE.  A better score than Pat Mahomes and Kyler Murray got.  

You know, the metric you guys like to sh*t on for not being at all predictive.  

 

QBASE has alex smith as the greatest QB prospect of all time. Is their number-crunching model more accurate than the others?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/qbase-2020

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5 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

QBASE has alex smith as the greatest QB prospect of all time. Is their number-crunching model more accurate than the others?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/qbase-2020

 

Yes, it absolutely is.  Anyone can cherry pick a few mistakes here and there.  They correctly peg who will bust 75 % of the time, and are overall correct a little over 50 % of the time.

No scout or front office exec nails QB projections with a rate that high.  Not even close.

You just pointed out how scouts and "experts" know nothing and whiffed on Herbert, but QBASE didn't, and still think it has no validity?  Yikes.  There's something to their model and they'll continue to get this stuff right at a high level, for a position on the field that is almost impossible to predict otherwise.  

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25 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

 

Herbert scored a 689 on QBASE.  A better score than Pat Mahomes and Kyler Murray got.  

You know, the metric you guys like to sh*t on for not being at all predictive.  

And he's not better than either one of them so it remains to be stupid.

 

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

And he's not better than either one of them so it remains to be stupid.

Find me scouts or front office people who thought he'd be THIS good.  

You and predator just finished explaining how scouts, experts and front offices know nothing when it comes to QB's.  QBASE does, and pretty consistently.  And you guys continue to sh*t on it at every turn.  

Burrow got a very high score too, btw.

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Yes, it absolutely is.  Anyone can cherry pick a few mistakes here and there.  They correctly peg who will bust 75 % of the time, and are overall correct a little over 50 % of the time.

No scout or front office exec nails QB projections with a rate that high.  Not even close.

You just pointed out how scouts and "experts" know nothing and whiffed on Herbert, but QBASE didn't, and still think it has no validity?  Yikes.  There's something to their model and they'll continue to get this stuff right at a high level, for a position on the field that is almost impossible to predict otherwise.  

I wasn't thinking anything, its the first time i have even heard of it. 

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Just now, predator_05 said:

I wasn't thinking anything, its the first time i have even heard of it. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Find me scouts or front office people who thought he'd be THIS good.  

You and predator just finished explaining how scouts, experts and front offices know nothing when it comes to QB's.  QBASE does, and pretty consistently.  And you guys continue to sh*t on it at every turn.  

Burrow got a very high score too, btw.

He went #6 overall, did the Chargers take him at #6 thinking he was going to bad? 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JiF said:

He went #6 overall, did the Chargers take him at #6 thinking he was going to bad? 

I very much doubt they thought he'd be this good, right away.  And no, I bet QBASE didn't either.  Otherwise he wouldn't have been the 3rd QB off the board.  They'd have done everything in their power to move up to the # 2 or 3 spot to ensure they got him.  Instead they played "stick and pick".  

Remember when Washington and Detroit were entertaining trading down from 2 or 3 and ended up taking defensive players when the bids weren't high enough?  Yeah, that's a sign no one was completely sold on Herbert (or Tua).

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Totally forgot how I slapped your little tushy in this thread and you didnt touch a response.  Yummy reminder. 

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Totally forgot how I slapped your little tushy in this thread and you didnt touch a response.  Yummy reminder. 

You weren't worth my time.  Your "math is gay" shtick gets old after a while.  You're not going to be convinced no matter what anyone says, you stubborn mule.

QBASE is far from perfect, but it's highly useful.  You won't even acknowledge that.

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Herbert has a great QB coach in Pep Hamilton.  Not saying he’s solely responsible, but having a guy like Pep be your position coach is a nice advantage.   People slept on Herbert because he came back to school and was overshadowed by Tua and Burrow.   It was a great decision for Herbert because he most likely would have been a Giant if he came out in 2019.   He’s in a much, much better spot in San Diego.  

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I very much doubt they thought he'd be this good, right away.  Otherwise he wouldn't have been the 3rd QB off the board.  They'd have done everything in their power to move up to the # 2 or 3 spot to ensure they got him.  Instead they played "stick and pick".  

Consensus had Burrow better, ironically so did your ground breaking formula.  The only variance is Tua and you're taking a lot at liberty assuming they were just sticking and picking.  You dont know what they knew. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You weren't worth my time.  Your "math is gay" shtick gets old after a while.  You're not going to be convinced no matter what anyone says, you stubborn mule.

QBASE is far from perfect, but it's highly useful.  You won't even acknowledge that.

Why do you constantly try to spin and paint me in a light that is inaccurate when you're defeated?  You remind me of someone... 

Go type what I read and respond to it.  I acknowledged it's useful and said it should not be used as a determining factor because it's highly flawed.  I know you cant defend this so "I'm not worth your time" (liar, you love me) because I'm right but I'll simply remind you of the highlights; The flaw in their formula has nothing to do with math it's completely subjective malarkey that they use to compile their "data", they are not telling you anything you didnt already know ie; Burrow is the #1 prospect, there isnt a competitive tool to compare this is better than anything else out there and it ultimately is 50/50 on when they are right and wrong and I dont know how you can put any stock into something with those types of results.

 

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Jets fans all over are so damn delusional.. FRANCHISE QBs make others good/great.  They dont need much around them to start turning the team into a winner.  If you need a good O-Line.. Good WRs.. a good TE.. and possibly a running game to look good.. guess  what?  You're not a franchise QB.  I would think the list is very short of who is a franchise QB in year 3 that was 0-7!  Darnold is not it.  Stop it already.  Move on.

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