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If there is a trade at the top...it almost has to be JAX

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The Jaguars are stacked with picks.  Two 1st and Two 2nds. They have the Rams' 1st and the Vikings' 2nd (which will be a high pick in the round).

While I still feel you draft Lawrence if you have the #1 and you don't look back, but what would JAX be willing to give up for that pick.  Assuming they are drafting in the top 3, you could be looking at 2021: 2 1st, 2 2nd and 2022: 1 1st and 1 3rd.  Something insane like that.  We would have 3 picks in each of the 1st 3 rounds in 2021 and 3 1st rounders in 2022.  A top 3 pick and then four picks in about a 10-pick range at the bottom of the 1st into the early 2nd.  

I STILL think you draft Lawrence (and offer them Darnold in trade) but it would be interesting to see how high they go with all that ammo.

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Done deal...keep Darnold, take the picks. Im not a huge darnold fan but I keep him in this scenario and put enough around him where almost any qb can succeed.

Sent from the Suicide Watch desk.



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4 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

Done deal...keep Darnold, take the picks. Im not a huge darnold fan but I keep him in this scenario and put enough around him where almost any qb can succeed.

Sent from the Suicide Watch desk.


 

Sam is finished in this town. The thought that the Jets would pass on Lawrence in favor or Sam is insane 

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19 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

Done deal...keep Darnold, take the picks. Im not a huge darnold fan but I keep him in this scenario and put enough around him where almost any qb can succeed.

Sent from the Suicide Watch desk.


 

No. You trade 1 overall for Jax’s 1 (currently 3 overall), Rams 1 and Vikings 2. They take Lawrence. We hope Fields lands at 3 overall. Currently, it’s the Giants at 2 overall, they’re a wildcard. Take Fields and build around him with 2 more first rounders, 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders. 

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On 10/26/2020 at 9:18 AM, kdels62 said:

No. You trade 1 overall for Jax’s 1 (currently 3 overall), Rams 1 and Vikings 2. They take Lawrence. We hope Fields lands at 3 overall. Currently, it’s the Giants at 2 overall, they’re a wildcard. Take Fields and build around him with 2 more first rounders, 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders. 

I think you are suggesting we take the #3, #23 and roughly #40 picks for the Trevor Lawrence pick.

I think you forgot a few picks.  TL is going to command more than any QB trade we've ever seen.  I can't really estimate it, but I think that any team that thinks it has any chance to trade for that pick is going to be willing to throw the house at it.   The trade you suggested is a nice haul, and in any other year, would make sense, but not this year.  We traded 3 2nds to move up from 6 to 3.  I think it would be a lot more to move from 3 to 1 for TL.

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On 10/25/2020 at 4:12 PM, Rhg1084 said:

Sam is finished in this town. The thought that the Jets would pass on Lawrence in favor or Sam is insane 

They can pass on lawrence for a sh*t load of picks and get another QB if they like and the next great guy a year or two down the road once the team is built.

People act as if after lawrence there will no longer every be anymore good young qb.sw Also as we have seen you can get really good looking guys not top 5

 

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2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

They can pass on lawrence for a sh*t load of picks and get another QB if they like and the next great guy a year or two down the road once the team is built.

People act as if after lawrence there will no longer every be anymore good young qb.sw Also as we have seen you can get really good looking guys not top 5

 

c'mon man. Lawrence is a once in a generation QB. Until the next year when the next once in a generation QB comes out.

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Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

c'mon man. Lawrence is a once in a generation QB. Until the next year when the next once in a generation QB comes out.

The guy that outplayed him thoroughly in last years nat champ game was hardly known about until his draft year.  The guy lighting it up for the chargers was an inaccurate running QB..

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2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

They can pass on lawrence for a sh*t load of picks and get another QB if they like and the next great guy a year or two down the road once the team is built.

People act as if after lawrence there will no longer every be anymore good young qb.sw Also as we have seen you can get really good looking guys not top 5

 

There are two big issues with the trade down scenario.

1.  Of all the bad teams who could be looking at a top 7 pick, only 2 (Miami - with Houston's pick and Cincy) dont need a QB.  Jets, Jacksonville, Giants, Atlanta, Washington, and possibly even Minnesota would all seriously consider a QB.

2.  Outside of Sewell, there is no other elite pass rusher that will absolutely command a top 3 pick like Chase Young, Bosa, Garret etc.  

So unless you are looking at swapping from 1 to 2 for a single first, thats fine as you then get Fields.  If you want to take a huge risk and move from 1 to 4 and hope Trey Lance is there then ok.  But anything can happen.

The wildcard would be Zach Wilson of BYU who could be the Mayfield/Kyler of this draft class and vault himself from the mid rounds to a first round pick.  If JD really liked him, and was willing to take that risk I guess I can see it but that would be tough to do and possibly bet your career on a trade like this.

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3 hours ago, BCJet said:

There are two big issues with the trade down scenario.

1.  Of all the bad teams who could be looking at a top 7 pick, only 2 (Miami - with Houston's pick and Cincy) dont need a QB.  Jets, Jacksonville, Giants, Atlanta, Washington, and possibly even Minnesota would all seriously consider a QB.

2.  Outside of Sewell, there is no other elite pass rusher that will absolutely command a top 3 pick like Chase Young, Bosa, Garret etc.  

So unless you are looking at swapping from 1 to 2 for a single first, thats fine as you then get Fields.  If you want to take a huge risk and move from 1 to 4 and hope Trey Lance is there then ok.  But anything can happen.

The wildcard would be Zach Wilson of BYU who could be the Mayfield/Kyler of this draft class and vault himself from the mid rounds to a first round pick.  If JD really liked him, and was willing to take that risk I guess I can see it but that would be tough to do and possibly bet your career on a trade like this.

If we have the #1 pick, no amount of picks is worth trading down and taking another QB.  To me, it's either Lawrence or Darnold in 2021.  Let's say Lawrence has the upside of Mahomes and everyone else has the upside of Burrow.  Would you take Burrow and a bunch of picks right now over Mahomes?  

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17 hours ago, nycdan said:

If we have the #1 pick, no amount of picks is worth trading down and taking another QB.  To me, it's either Lawrence or Darnold in 2021.  Let's say Lawrence has the upside of Mahomes and everyone else has the upside of Burrow.  Would you take Burrow and a bunch of picks right now over Mahomes?  

I'll wait for the full pre-draft process to play out before determining its Lawrence or bust.  Fields is basically 1b to Lawrence's 1a at the moment, for me.  I would be pleased with either until further notice.

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On 10/27/2020 at 7:26 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

c'mon man. Lawrence is a once in a generation QB. Until the next year when the next once in a generation QB comes out.

Lawrence is a great player but he's not a can't miss prospect. If you can get a haul of picks as described in this thread you really have to think about it. Especially if you still have a shot at getting Fields. 

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Done deal...keep Darnold, take the picks. Im not a huge darnold fan but I keep him in this scenario and put enough around him where almost any qb can succeed.

Sent from the Suicide Watch desk.





If the jags are in the top 3 you can grab that haul
And still pluck fields or lance as well. We get Roman and let him draw up an offense for anyone of those guys to succeed with 2 more 1sts to follow.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
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Darnold is done. JD is not trading out of #1 if we get it.

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The only way you trade out of 1 is if it’s to two and you think fields is truly the next Russell Wilson.

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On 10/27/2020 at 7:32 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm down to move down to 2 with Jacksonville and ending up with Fields.  Best of both worlds!

 

@JiF

I wonder what the value would be to move up one slot.  Probably have to look back to when the bears swapped with the 9ers for trubisky to get a guess at value. 

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12 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I'm getting this offer from the draft simulator...

 

20201108_212948.jpg

I've turned that trade into ...

 

20201108_213836.jpg

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14 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I'm getting this offer from the draft simulator...

 

20201108_212948.jpg

Pick 3 is a lot differnet than Pick 2.

If you love Fields during the evaluation and Pick 2 is there you can make that move.

Doing that and keeping Darnold... I dunno man.

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Fields is going 2 overall now in the draft simulators. It’s not worth missing out on either Lawrence or Fields.

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On 11/8/2020 at 9:40 PM, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I've turned that trade into ...

 

20201108_213836.jpg

I got a similar trade and turned it into:

2. Penei Sewell, OT Oregon

22. Wyatt Davis, G Ohio St.

26. DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

33. Kyle Pitts, TE Florida

34. Travis Etienee, RB Clemson

44. Jayson Oweh, Edge Penn St.

65. Elijah Molden, CB Washingon

89. Derio Kendrick, CB Clemson

Could Darnold thrive with these additions?

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1 hour ago, IndianaJet said:

I got a similar trade and turned it into:

2. Penei Sewell, OT Oregon

22. Wyatt Davis, G Ohio St.

26. DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

33. Kyle Pitts, TE Florida

34. Travis Etienee, RB Clemson

44. Jayson Oweh, Edge Penn St.

65. Elijah Molden, CB Washingon

89. Derio Kendrick, CB Clemson

Could Darnold thrive with these additions?

Don't take me too seriously but I don’t believe you lmao. I tried multiple times to get the Sewell and Wyatt Davis combo and it never has worked. But in reality if we could make that happen, then sign me up!

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For me it's either Lawrence or Fields 1A and 1B so it depends if JAX finishes 2nd or not. If they do Id take a haul to drop to two and take Fields + picks.

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Sim updates:

The current trade in the sim with Jax is a drop down to 2 overall picking up 22, 34, 44 and next years 1 or 2 depending on the sim

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That's enough for me to trade down to #2.  You have to figure, all else being equal, is Joe Fields plus the players you could get with those picks, more likely to win a SB than Trevor Lawrence without them.  Figure you end up with 2 quality starters and 1 good starter/depth guy out of that bunch.

It's an interesting question.

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On 11/11/2020 at 4:59 PM, Nick Blitz said:

For me it's either Lawrence or Fields 1A and 1B so it depends if JAX finishes 2nd or not. If they do Id take a haul to drop to two and take Fields + picks.

 

If the jags really want Lawrence, they'll try to get a head-start by tanking the season. Maybe they're already doing so, by playing their 3rd string QB. They've anticipated the possibility of picking 2nd, and its better to tank for free than give up picks to move up during the off-season. 

If the Jets want Lawrence, they have to secure that 0-16 record.

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On 11/10/2020 at 2:36 PM, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Don't take me too seriously but I don’t believe you lmao. I tried multiple times to get the Sewell and Wyatt Davis combo and it never has worked. But in reality if we could make that happen, then sign me up!

Are you guys serious that you think an NFL GM would risk his career by passing on Trevor Lawerence so he can take an OT that is the same position he took the prior year and a guard?  I thought we should only draft premium positions?

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