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Daniel Jeremiah on Darnold's Trade Value


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14 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Makes total sense for those kinda teams to throw a late 1 for Sam. You’re prob never picking high enough for a top QB, why not take a shot at talented QB already with 3 years experience. Sam with Shananan would prob be a damn good pairing. 

This, we're talking about teams like the Steelers and Saints so it's not like we're getting a top 5 pick.  It's a late first rounder for a team with an older QB who ideally wants to start thinking about the future.  Breese has looked pretty bad this year so I think the Saints make a ton of sense.

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I don't think the Jets are going to get rid of him until they're certain they can draft Trevor.

I agree with DJ.  The NFL is a QB league.  I think GMs will see the value in acquiring a 23 year old potential-FQB (who clearly has been severely mishandled by this incompetent organization) for a rel

Because we don't have the #1 pick wrapped up yet.  Thats why.   

3 hours ago, jgb said:

There is still a not-insignificant minority who believe this about Sanchez and Geno. We can all look forward to a raging debate for the next 7-10 years at every up and down of his career no matter where he ends up. Just like when Geno made a spot start for Giants in 2018 and Sanchez popped back up for the Eagles a couple years ago.

Peoole are way to invested in being right about Darnold and will argue they were right and he is an elite-QB-in-hiding every time he completes a pass for the rest of his career.

I don't think that's the case at all re: Geno. I can only speak for myself, but my recollection was the narrative being: Fitzpatrick is a dead-end street. Even if Geno is probably a dead-end street, the team loses no great opportunities by playing him over Fitzpatrick.

No argument on Sanchez during his very brief stint of not-awfulness with Philadelphia, which itself was only due to rushing him to the line so someone else could assess the D formation from the booth, and from up there coach him & call plays at the line instead of that putz not getting what he's seeing pre-snap. 

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17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't think that's the case at all re: Geno. I can only speak for myself, but my recollection was the narrative being: Fitzpatrick is a dead-end street. Even if Geno is probably a dead-end street, the team loses no great opportunities by playing him over Fitzpatrick.

No argument on Sanchez during his very brief stint of not-awfulness with Philadelphia, which itself was only due to rushing him to the line so someone else could assess the D formation from the booth, and from up there coach him & call plays at the line instead of that putz not getting what he's seeing pre-snap. 

I'm glad you weren't as scarred by the Genoids as I was.

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3 hours ago, KINGDIRK said:

Have we ever seen a 23 year old so mismanaged? How many coaches in 2 and half years? How many OCs? Bottom 3 OL his entire career so far. And the worst coach in football to top it off?

If a team with an aging QB is picking in the 20s (Colts, Steelers etc), it makes complete sense to roll the dice on Darnold for that first round pick. From a risk reward standpoint it’s a pretty clear choice. 

Yeah, like, all the time actually.  Sam just sucks and cant even slightly rise above it.  Blake Bortles laughs at Sam Darnold. 

And, there is 0% chance the worst starter in the NFL is worth a 1st round pick, that's just crazy talk.

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15 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

If he keeps seeing ghosts, Sam will "reinjure" his shoulder and be shut down to protect his trade value...

Well then who would trade a 1st round pick for a QB who has missed double digit games in his first 3 seasons?

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5 minutes ago, JiF said:

And, there is 0% chance the worst starter in the NFL is worth a 1st round pick, that's just crazy talk.

2 points that makes it higher than 0% 

1) the CFB season is such a crap show (will there even be a combine?) that teams picking at 31 might as well be picking at 131. The lack of information lowers the value of the 2021 and perhaps even 2022 picks. 

2) If Tim Tebow and Josh Rosen can get rd1 value on the trade market almost anything can happen

 

 

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13 hours ago, jamaicanjetfan said:

Ryan Tannehill says hi

Except he didn't "fail" in Miami.  He was a replacement level QB.  One you can't win a title with but certainly could do a lot worse.  Think Alex Smith.  

Darnold is a giant failure pile here, no matter how anyone wants to spin it.  

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13 hours ago, ljr said:

 

lol ... without looking into it, but just from our own history ... how about Vinny T ?

It took Vinny 10 years (1996 - Baltimiore), when he was 33, to finally become a useful QB.  By then he was on his 3rd team.

These aren't examples that help Darnold's cause, or would give any GM a good reason to cough up a 1st round pick to acquire him.

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4 hours ago, JiF said:

Ummm, yeah sorry but like, no.  That's not how life works.

Sam's value isnt jarred up in a bottle and preserved no matter what!  That's just asinine.  If he is currently worth a 1st which I highly highly doubt to be true and he continues to go out and miss wide open WR's and throw picks - his value will decrease.   That's just simple free trade market logic, if your product sucks and continues to suck worse than it did when it first sucked, it doesnt maintain value.  Cant believe Im' having to explain that to a grown adult. 

 

To Darnold apologists, his entire career to date is a wash because Jets.  As if there's no way to evaluate a QB at all unless he has perfect or very good circumstances surrounding him.  

Thus, to them, no matter how much Darnold continues to suck this season, he'll still carry a 1st round value like he's a promising rookie.  Because none of these games "count".

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2 hours ago, drsamuel84 said:

This, we're talking about teams like the Steelers and Saints so it's not like we're getting a top 5 pick.  It's a late first rounder for a team with an older QB who ideally wants to start thinking about the future.  Breese has looked pretty bad this year so I think the Saints make a ton of sense.

So why not just bring back Jameis Winston?  Certainly he has as much promise to take over the reigns as Darnold would, and he wouldn't cost a 1st round pick.  Sure, he's turnover prone, but he throws a lot of TDs too.  

Due to a crushing cap situation, the Saints are about to completely tear everything down this offseason.  They're currently projected to be $78M over the cap next season.  If Darnold is truly dependent on his circumstances to succeed, then good luck succeeding in New Orleans without Michael Thomas, Kamara, a couple key OL, and possibly Sean Payton.  This would be a great time for him to jump ship.

A team like that certainly needs to keep all of its draft picks, too.  The only way to climb back out of a bad financial situation is with cheap, young talent.

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18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

If the Jets are in trade mode I would be creative.  a 1st is preferable however I would look at a lower pick and a player as well.  (As for the type of player I'd be looking at, Danielle Hunter type, still young at 25 and an excellent pass rusher.)

In the Pro's he definitely is his last year in collage just 1 1/ 2 sacks that's why i never put much on what a kid did in college until he excels in the Pro's. And he turned 26 this month..

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There is plenty of tape out there to suggest Darnold is the real deal and salvageable.  Let's not pretend that this season wholly exemplifies his entire career.

Darnold is rattled right now.  He's not seeing the field well.  He's missing throws he has routinely made in the past.  He needs a reset.  I think there are a couple of teams in the bottom third of the first round who would be willing to take a chance on him.

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Maybe his higher than expected market value is based on the fact that the last "bust" coached by Adam Gase is now tearing it up on another team.  And maybe other GMs think Darnold is younger and more talented than Tannehill ever was and all he needs is to escape the black cloud that is the Adam Gase offense that is so "genius" apparently only one man can understand it. 

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26 minutes ago, bitonti said:

2 points that makes it higher than 0% 

1) the CFB season is such a crap show (will there even be a combine?) that teams picking at 31 might as well be picking at 131. The lack of information lowers the value of the 2021 and perhaps even 2022 picks. 

2) If Tim Tebow and Josh Rosen can get rd1 value on the trade market almost anything can happen

 

 

How much higher than 0 are we talking? lol

- I really dont see the offseason being disrupted, sports is learning to live with it, I really dont see the draft being that impacted at all.  There will be more than enough tape to go on in addition to the rest of the stuff that I think will still happen; Snr. Bowl, Combine, etc.

- Tebow and Rosen didnt get rd 1 value.  Rosen got  the 62nd overall pick and that was after his rookie season when there was still hope.  Darnold is 32 starts in and convincingly the worst starting QB in the NFL.  Tebow yielded a 4th.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

There is plenty of tape out there to suggest Darnold is the real deal and salvageable.  Let's not pretend that this season wholly exemplifies his entire career.

Darnold is rattled right now.  He's not seeing the field well.  He's missing throws he has routinely made in the past.  He needs a reset.  I think there are a couple of teams in the bottom third of the first round who would be willing to take a chance on him.

 

"Plenty of tape".  lol.

At his best he's a below average QB.  His highlights consist of backyard plays that are not sustainable for a pro QB.  At his worst he looks like the worst QB in the league, and worse than numerous backup QB's.  

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14 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Would you be happy if your gm gave up a 1st round pick for Darnold?

Exactly.  It's career suicide.  I don't believe there's a single GM that has enough rope to make a deal like that, have it blow up in his face (by far the most likely result to that), and still keep his job.

At least if you're only giving up a late 2 and maybe a 4 or 5, you can justify it as a worthy shot to take on a project QB.  But you can't make that case when you're giving up a 1.  Rosen garnered a 2 and a 5 after 13 starts and bad results.  Darnold isn't getting a 1 based off of 31 starts (up to 40 by the end of the season) and bad results.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

"Plenty of tape".  lol.

At his best he's a below average QB.  His highlights consist of backyard plays that are not sustainable for a pro QB.  At his worst he looks like the worst QB in the league, and worse than numerous backup QB's.  

The only "starting" QB that is ranked lower than Sam Darnold on QBR is Dwayne Haskins and he was benched.

It's very safe to say, Darnold is the worst start in the league.  

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It took Vinny 10 years (1996 - Baltimiore), when he was 33, to finally become a useful QB.  By then he was on his 3rd team.

These aren't examples that help Darnold's cause, or would give any GM a good reason to cough up a 1st round pick to acquire him.

 

my bad ... i can't believe I mentioned Vinny T in response to these comments

 

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QBs drafted in the top ten and don't succeed...DO NOT go on to have success on other teams.

 

Quote

you found the 1 exception (referring to Ryan Tannehill) to prove the rule. Hell, I'll even throw in Alex Smith and say you got two over...50 years of Footbal

 

 

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48 minutes ago, JiF said:

How much higher than 0 are we talking? lol

- I really dont see the offseason being disrupted, sports is learning to live with it, I really dont see the draft being that impacted at all.  There will be more than enough tape to go on in addition to the rest of the stuff that I think will still happen; Snr. Bowl, Combine, etc.

- Tebow and Rosen didnt get rd 1 value.  Rosen got  the 62nd overall pick and that was after his rookie season when there was still hope.  Darnold is 32 starts in and convincingly the worst starting QB in the NFL.  Tebow yielded a 4th

 

-Dude. Think about all the non power 5 schools that cancelled seasons. Think about the Pac 12. The draft is already hugely impacted. 

-i meant the first time around 

 

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12 minutes ago, ljr said:

my bad ... i can't believe I mentioned Vinny T in response to these comments

Just because it's an accurate statement doesn't make it applicable to the discussion, or helpful to the case that Darnold is worth trading for (especially for a 1st round pick).  If only 3 QB's in all of NFL history were taken top 10 and ended up having success elsewhere, then it's an extremely rare occurrence.  

I mean, just in the last 10 years, 22 QB's have been drafted in the top 10.  6 of them (Josh Rosen, Mariota, Bortles, RG3, Locker, Gabbert) are already either out of the league or lost causes on their 2nd/3rd teams, with more to come.  Cam Newton might be in that category as well.   

Just 1 (Tannehill) had success at his next stop.  And then you have to go back decades to find Vinny T, who didn't have success until his 3RD team.  That's what we call "outliers".  

And even when it comes to Tannehill....he really didn't fail in Miami anyways!  He was average.  Average is not failure.  

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

"Plenty of tape".  lol.

At his best he's a below average QB.  His highlights consist of backyard plays that are not sustainable for a pro QB.  At his worst he looks like the worst QB in the league, and worse than numerous backup QB's.  

Agree to disagree.

He is playing like the worst quarterback in the league right now, but that hasn't been the case for his entire career.

He played very well in the Packers, Colts, and Texans games his rookie year.  He played very well in the Dallas game last year.  If you do a deep dive analysis of his performance against the Bengals last year, he actually played very well and was let down by his teammates time and time again.  The point is, there are flashes of great quarterback play if you are willing to look for them. 

He played his best football as a rookie in Jeremy Bates system.  He has regressed under Adam Gase.  He is a broken quarterback right now, but he is young enough to still be salvaged and molded in my opinion.  It only takes one team to come to a similar conclusion and see the unrealized potential.  There are well respected analysts out there who feel the same way.

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2 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Agree to disagree.

He is playing like the worst quarterback in the league right now, but that hasn't been the case for his entire career.

He played very well in the Packers, Colts, and Texans games his rookie year.  He played very well in the Dallas game last year.  If you do a deep dive analysis of his performance against the Bengals last year, he actually played very well and was let down by his teammates time and time again.  The point is, there are flashes of great quarterback play if you are willing to look for them. 

He played his best football as a rookie in Jeremy Bates system.  He has regressed under Adam Gase.  He is a broken quarterback, but he is young enough to still be salvaged and molded in my opinion.  It only takes one team to come to a similar conclusion and see the unrealized potential.  There are well respected analysts out there who feel the same way.

 

And I say again, those aren't flashes of "greatness".  I demonstrated in other threads that Darnold's performances, even when isolating his best games, were comparable to league average QB's or slightly worse.  

His "best" is basically Andy Dalton.  He's never flashed "greatness" in this league when compared to his peers.  QB's are breaking records left and right, and we still have people talking about 1 game against the Packers. 

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8 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

They told Broadway Joe that once.....

I hope we do

They never told Joe he couldn't beat Mahomes and the high powered offense that is the Chiefs. Our roster is a joke, our play calling is a joke. Our coaching staff is a joke. We have no "weapons".  

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16 hours ago, JiF said:

Ummm, yeah sorry but like, no.  That's not how life works.

Sam's value isnt jarred up in a bottle and preserved no matter what!  That's just asinine.  If he is currently worth a 1st which I highly highly doubt to be true and he continues to go out and miss wide open WR's and throw picks - his value will decrease.   That's just simple free trade market logic, if your product sucks and continues to suck worse than it did when it first sucked, it doesnt maintain value.  Cant believe Im' having to explain that to a grown adult. 

 

All I said is if you think his struggles are based on a lack of talent and coaching, nothing is changing over the rest of the year.  

 

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7 hours ago, pointman said:

They never told Joe he couldn't beat Mahomes and the high powered offense that is the Chiefs. Our roster is a joke, our play calling is a joke. Our coaching staff is a joke. We have no "weapons".  

We got a chance if Gase is detained by the TSA for looking suspicious. 

Jets GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

 

Many body cavity searches later, he resigns.

 

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