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What if Trevor Lawrence sucks?


manuvsteal
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1 hour ago, oatmeal said:

Sam had Robby, Robby now has a average QB and looks better than any year here. The receivers were hurt this year okay? The number 3rd overall pick should be able to carry the team. 
 

 

And Robby produced with Darnold in year one and two. 

Maybe Robby improved this year

And the idea that QBs, inexperienced ones, can make chicken shlt WRs into productive WRs is wishful thinking.

We cried that Bradys numbers went down because of a lack of weapons and Rodgers., complain that Tanny let Sanchez's weapons leave, but a developing 23 year old?  

Give Lawrence the same dreck at WR and he'll suck like Darnold.  

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I think this is a bigger possibility than some want to admit.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Lawrence will be good.  

However, I do have an interest in researching how many QBs who were the first QB taken in their class turn out to be 1) Good Pros 2) Best QB in their class.  My gut tells me it's not as high as most would think.  I am going to do this research maybe this weekend.

Also the last prospect who got this much "best prospect since Luck" talk was Jameis Winston, fwiw.

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1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think this is a bigger possibility than some want to admit.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Lawrence will be good.  

However, I do have an interest in researching how many QBs who were the first QB taken in their class turn out to be 1) Good Pros 2) Best QB in their class.  My gut tells me it's not as high as most would think.  I am going to do this research maybe this weekend.

Also the last prospect who got this much "best prospect since Luck" talk was Jameis Winston, fwiw.

Yep. Any prospect can bust. 

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You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years.  The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't.  For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two.  Bandwagon jumping ass fans.

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4 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

This is not really a draft topic, but more of a we're already in the 2021 season hypothetical question.  What if the Jets draft Trevor Lawrence and he stinks?  I don't mean horrible, but borderline stinks. For example 2700 yards 15 TD/15 interceptions in his rookie year.  Then he follows it up with a 2022 season of 19TD/13 INT in his sophomore season along with 3,000 yards.  Do you try to trade him in year 3?  

I only ask because Sam Darnold put up 17TD/15INT and followed with 19TD/13TD in his second season.  For those that hold Darnold to a standard that he should be traded for Lawrence while he was throwing to Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Josh Malone this year, what would the bar be for Trevor Lawrence if he's throwing to 3 starting caliber receivers?  I'm not looking for an argument per se. I am looking for an honest fans assessment of what it would mean if Trevor Lawrence had Sam Darnold's equivalency of success? Continue building around him, or cut him loose?  

What is the bar to say Lawrence is successful or not the QB of the future?

 

 

If we draft him he will suck.  Accept this fact now and it will hurt less.  

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1 hour ago, manuvsteal said:

You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years.  The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't.  For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two.  Bandwagon jumping ass fans.

Yeah, only fools change their opinion as the facts change. Boo to these wishy washy hypocrites!

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1 hour ago, manuvsteal said:

You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years.  The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't.  For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two.  Bandwagon jumping ass fans.

Listen - if everyone on this board somehow knew that Darnold was going to be a stud QB for the next 12 years starting next season, no one would be talking about drafting Lawrence or Fields, or any other QB, for that matter. 

It has nothing to do with bandwagons. It has to do with realistically adjusting our expectations and evaluations as new data becomes available. In his 2.5 year career thus far, Sam has only started 32 of 41 possible games and has been a low tier QB, by almost every widely used statistical metric for assessing QBs. The reality is that Sam hasn't given us a reason to stay on the bandwagon. Through his first 6 games of his third season, he has only 3 TD passes. We are talking about 2020 NFL - That is simply incredibly bad. 

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2 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years.  The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't.  For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two.  Bandwagon jumping ass fans.

Chris? Is that you Chris?

Awwwwww.....how sweet. :-)

mommas-boy.gif

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Simple.

You swing and miss until you can't miss anymore; until you finally hit. 

screen-shot-2020-02-19-at-3_47.23-pm.png.169c5c3934b3ad785c15d3d7efc8c268.png

In all seriousness you can not compare Sam as a prospect coming out as either a HS recruit and/or NCAA prospect and that's especially when in comparison to Trevor Lawrence as a generational prospect - you just can't. 

Sam Darnold was an absolute turnover machine while at USC in comparison to Trevor Lawrence who just almost broke the all-time NCAA record for most consecutive passing attempts without a single interception thrown;

They are not the same. 

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it isn't if, it is when unless things change here dramatically. A number of can't miss prospects have failed. Even the successes can be limited; Indianapolis broke Luck; we broke Sanchez and Sam. Maybe they both didn't have what it takes, but without a quality team and coaching around them, they can't succeed.

It happens time and time again, and yet fans say 'suck for Luck, 'suck for Sam', 'tank for Trevor'. I remember this site pining away for Wentz, Mariotta, etc. We do it for coaches too. Remember how the Jets lost out on Quinn? O'brien?

There is only just one piece and the Jets will win the SB, but the truth is that it is a team sport. A great team with an average QB is just as likely to win as a great QB on an average team.

The great one elevate the play of their WRs. In reality it is the other way around. Great WRs can elevate the play of their QBs. Coaching matters. So does the OL and the defense.

If 'Trevor' sucks. Unless something changes, it is a certainty and it is why many are recommending him to stay in college or insist on a trade. If the Jets fire Gase and convince Trevor either things will be different or promise to trade the pick we can build a great team. If not, i can hear it now, "Trevor sucks, tank for <TBD>". or "I never was sold on him" and we lose another 3 to 4 years and we are lost again.

Fastest way to build a contender, fire the coaching staff, trade Trevor for a boat load of picks, and in a year or 2 draft someone that can lead a team with very good talent.

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3 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years.  The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't.  For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two.  Bandwagon jumping ass fans.

Darnold has been and is bottom of the barrel for NFL QBs.  Not just bad, but "generationally " bad.  You think there's going to be a miracle here? I admire your optimism.  Try not to let it cloud your vision too much.

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2 hours ago, Dcat said:

Darnold has been and is bottom of the barrel for NFL QBs.  Not just bad, but "generationally " bad.  You think there's going to be a miracle here? I admire your optimism.  Try not to let it cloud your vision too much.

Generationally bad is Jamarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf. That’s not Sam Darnold. 
 

I think Sam is going to be tossed in that Derek Carr/Vinny Testaverde category by most as a guy who was in a horrible situation. If the Jets go 0-16 it will cement that. 
 

Perhaps he can have an Alex Smith/Vinny T like career as a journeyman starter. 

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5 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

This is not really a draft topic, but more of a we're already in the 2021 season hypothetical question.  What if the Jets draft Trevor Lawrence and he stinks?  I don't mean horrible, but borderline stinks. For example 2700 yards 15 TD/15 interceptions in his rookie year.  Then he follows it up with a 2022 season of 19TD/13 INT in his sophomore season along with 3,000 yards.  Do you try to trade him in year 3?  

I only ask because Sam Darnold put up 17TD/15INT and followed with 19TD/13TD in his second season.  For those that hold Darnold to a standard that he should be traded for Lawrence while he was throwing to Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Josh Malone this year, what would the bar be for Trevor Lawrence if he's throwing to 3 starting caliber receivers?  I'm not looking for an argument per se. I am looking for an honest fans assessment of what it would mean if Trevor Lawrence had Sam Darnold's equivalency of success? Continue building around him, or cut him loose?  

What is the bar to say Lawrence is successful or not the QB of the future?

So there's one thing to address first. Will TL have the same team, GM and coaching staff as Sam? Say what you will about Sam as a QB, he may be a total bust even on a loaded team. But he sure didn't get a lot of help with the Jets. I think TL, no matter what, will get better weapons, a better coach and a better GM. There's too much pressure for a half-way competent GM not to F this up if he picks up TL and gets a decent coach (which he will). So TL will automatically have a leg up. 

If he sucks or is just a JAG, you wait until he hits his option and make a financial and football decision, just like with Sam. Is this guy worth re-signing. Is it worth signing FA-X instead, is it worth drafting X instead, maybe the backup QB is the future (dare I say Morgan)? 

And as far as the draft is concerned, I don't think you can second guess. He's the clear top QB and overall prospect. Sure, Fields might end up being Russell Wilson 2.0 and TL ending up more on Jameis Winston's level, but I can't fault the Jets for taking him in hindsight. What would be worse is if the Jets passed on TL and whoever they took instead was average despite some other quality players we may have gotten in a trade down scenario. I.E. The Mahomes potential is too high to pass on him.

I will say though, Fields is impressive and its a good problem to have for the Jets. If the Jags lose out and the Jets end up with #2 I'd be happy with TL or Fields, let the Jags make the tough decision.   

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25 minutes ago, GreekJet said:

Generationally bad is Jamarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf. That’s not Sam Darnold. 
 

I think Sam is going to be tossed in that Derek Carr/Vinny Testaverde category by most as a guy who was in a horrible situation. If the Jets go 0-16 it will cement that. 
 

Perhaps he can have an Alex Smith/Vinny T like career as a journeyman starter. 

Yeah...  my hyperbole was off.  He's just been a huge disappointment and plenty of it is on his indecisiveness and flat out bad decision making.  There's no denying it. His most recent injury is his own fault. Watch the play.  I don't have the same confidence you have that he can change that. 

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13 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Yeah...  my hyperbole was off.  He's just been a huge disappointment and plenty of it is on his indecisiveness and flat out bad decision making.  There's no denying it. His most recent injury is his own fault. Watch the play.  I don't have the same confidence you have that he can change that. 

His most recent injury was caused by an illegal tackle that should have been a penalty. 

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19 hours ago, NorthCoastJetsFan said:

We don't know that yet and we didn't know it about Darnold when he was drafted

Some here did, as well as quite a few analysts.  He had a pretty flawed college resume propped up by one terrific Rose Bowl performance as a freshman.  

He was my # 1 choice but there were plenty of Darnold detractors.  Like this guy:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/04/17/one-draft-qb-spared-in-scouts-scathing-draft-take-cow-on-ice/

“Darnold, he’s like a cow on ice,’’ Shonka said. “His footwork is all over the place. His feet in the pocket are embarrassing. When you turn the ball over [35 times] in 26 games, you’re intellectually dishonest when you’re talking about bringing in Sam Darnold as your next savior. This guy opens his hands over the ball, it just drops out when he’s in the pocket. If you look at his film, they talk about his accuracy. Actually it’s his receivers making great catches for him, laying out for the ball or going high. I’m not saying he’s never going to be a quarterback, but right now he’s a long way away.’’

 

Granted, he liked Mayfield and Rosen over Jackson and Allen, so he didn't exactly get this QB class right, but that paragraph is spot on in its analysis of Darnold.  It got to the core of Darnold's numerous issues.  Everything he said above we've seen play out on the field for Darnold as a pro.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Some here did.  He had a pretty flawed college resume propped up by one terrific Rose Bowl performance as a freshman.  

He was my # 1 choice but there were plenty of detractors.

It is a good point -- is there anyone who is sounding a credible warning bell about Lawrence? Not saying no one has, I just haven't seen it.

By credible I mean not just Jets fans worrying that we are cursed and anything we touch will turn to ash. Not knocking that, I am pretty cynical about this team, but it's also not a credible concern related to Lawrence as a prospect.

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