What if Trevor Lawrence sucks?

[Jet Nut]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

It is a good point -- is there anyone who is sounding a credible warning bell about Lawrence? Not saying no one has, I just haven't seen it.

By credible I mean not just Jets fans worrying that we are cursed and anything we touch will turn to ash. Not knocking that, I am pretty cynical about this team, but it's also not a credible concern related to Lawrence as a prospect.

Its a credible concern with any and all prospects.

Every prospect will have that guy or guys who arent sold on them.  If he busts they look like sages, if not no one remembers.  

 

[EM31]

Sucks?  I am not sure people care all that much any more.

[jgb]

12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Its a credible concern with any and all prospects.

Every prospect will have that guy or guys who arent sold on them.  If he busts they look like sages, if not no one remembers.  

 

My point is what are people pointing to other than the fact that anyone can be a bust? What are the specific red flags? Again, not saying there aren't any but the optimism for Lawrence to transition to the pros seems universal from my limited read of such sources.

Darnold there was, for example, footwork, the fact that he's much more dangerous improvising than standing in the pocket, accuracy questions, etc.

[Jet Nut]

Just now, jgb said:

My point is what are people pointing to other than the fact that anyone can be a bust? What are the specific red flags? Again, not saying there aren't any but the optimism for Lawrence to transition to the pros seems universal from my limited read of such sources.

I get you and agree.  

 

[Beerfish]

If Trevor Lawrence sucks I am sure Jacksonville will be very disappointed.

[AL047]

I will say this, if he is bad then it will be back to the drawing board for GM Joe Douglas. Its hard to know if a QB is going to be good coming out of college. There are a few that got drafted in the first round that turned out good while others got drafted in the later rounds and became good. 

IMO, I believe in order for a QB to succeed in the NFL, he needs two things.

1) The players surrounding him!!!! Needs the weapons (WRs, TE, and RB) as well as protection (oline).

2) Needs a coach and the right system!!!! Need a head coach who knows what he wants and with the right offensive coordinator and system the QB can succeed.

Ask yourself this how many QBs have succeeded without any of these things??? 

How many QBs that came out of college that looked good in college but failed in the NFL??? I can name a few, David Klingler, Tim Couch, Detmer, Rick Mirer, Todd Marinovich, Scott Mitchell, Joe Harrington, Andre Ware to name a few.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, AL047 said:

I will say this, if he is bad then it will be back to the drawing board for GM Joe Douglas. Its hard to know if a QB is going to be good coming out of college. There are a few that got drafted in the first round that turned out good while others got drafted in the later rounds and became good. 

IMO, I believe in order for a QB to succeed in the NFL, he needs two things.

1) The players surrounding him!!!! Needs the weapons (WRs, TE, and RB) as well as protection (oline).

2) Needs a coach and the right system!!!! Need a head coach who knows what he wants and with the right offensive coordinator and system the QB can succeed.

Ask yourself this how many QBs have succeeded without any of these things??? 

How many QBs that came out of college that looked good in college but failed in the NFL??? I can name a few, David Klingler, Tim Couch, Detmer, Rick Mirer, Todd Marinovich, Scott Mitchell, Joe Harrington, Andre Ware to name a few.

Mere truism

[LAD_Brooklyn]

If Lawerance sucks, the same posters calling him a generational talent would be the same one ticked off at management for not selecting Fields, Wilson, Lance etc.

[The Crusher]

*when

[Jetsfan80]

19 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

However, I do have an interest in researching how many QBs who were the first QB taken in their class turn out to be 1) Good Pros 2) Best QB in their class.  My gut tells me it's not as high as most would think.  I am going to do this research maybe this weekend.

I'm your huckleberry.

QB's taken first vs best QB in the class (admittedly I'm being a bit subjective with my picks), 1980-2017:

Summary from the 38 draft classes

• 18/38 (47 %) instances, where the 1st QB of the class was the best one (or a 1a/1b best choice)
• 14/34 (41 %) instances where the 1st QB was taken in the 1st round, and was a 1st round BUST
• 16/38 (42 %) instances where the best QB of the class was taken outside of the 1st round

1980

• First QB taken:  Marc Wilson (1.15)
• Best QB of class:  Marc Wilson OR Eric Hipple (4.85)

1981

• First QB taken:  Rich Campbell (1.6)  -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Neil Lomax (2.33)

1982

• First QB taken:  Art Schlichter (1.4) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Jim McMahon (1.5)

1983

• First QB taken:  John Elway (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Elway OR Dan Marino (1.27)

1984

• First QB taken:  Boomer Esiason (2.38)
• Best QB of class:  Esiason

1985

• First QB taken:  Randall Cunningham (2.37)
• Best QB of class:  Cunningham

1986

• First QB taken:  Jim Everett (1.3)
• Best QB of class:  Everett

1987

• First QB taken:  Vinny Testaverde (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Testaverde OR Rich Gannon (4.98)

1988

• First QB taken:  Tom Tupa (3.68)
• Best QB of class:  Chris Chandler (3.76)

1989

• First QB taken:  Troy Aikman (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Aikman

1990

• First QB taken:  Jeff George (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  George OR Neil O'Donnell (3.70)

1991

• First QB taken:  Dan McGwire (1.16) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Brett Favre (2.33)

1992

• First QB taken:  David Klingler (1.6) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Brad Johnson (9.227) OR Jeff Blake (6.166)

1993

• First QB taken:  Drew Blesdoe (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Bledsoe OR Mark Brunell (5.118) OR Trent Green (8.222)

1994

• First QB taken:  Heath Shuler (1.3) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Gus Frerotte (7.197) OR Trent Dilfer (1.6)

1995

• First QB taken:  Steve McNair (1.3)
• Best QB of class:  McNair

1996

• First QB taken:  Tony Banks (2.42)
• Best QB of class:  Banks

1997

• First QB taken:  Jim Druckenmiller (1.26) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Jake Plummer (2.42)

1998

• First QB taken:  Peyton Manning (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Manning 

1999

• First QB taken:  Tim Couch (1.1) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Donovan McNabb (1.2)

2000

• First QB taken:  Chad Pennington (1.18)
• Best QB of class:  Tom Brady (6.199)

2001

• First QB taken:  Michael Vick (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Drew Brees (2.32)

2002

• First QB taken:  David Carr (1.1) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  David Garrard (4.108)

2003

• First QB taken:  Carson Palmer (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Palmer

2004

• First QB taken:  Eli Manning (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Phillip Rivers (1.4) OR Ben Roethlisberger (1.11)

2005

• First QB taken:  Alex Smith (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Aaron Rodgers (1.24)

2006

• First QB taken:  Vince Young (1.3) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Jay Cutler (1.11)

2007

• First QB taken:  JaMarcus Russell (1.1) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Trent Edwards (3.92)

2008

• First QB taken:  Matt Ryan (1.3)
• Best QB of class:  Ryan

2009

• First QB taken:  Matthew Stafford (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Stafford

2010

• First QB taken:  Sam Bradford (1.1) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Bradford

2011

• First QB taken:  Cam Newton (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Newton

2012

• First QB taken:  Andrew Luck (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Russell Wilson (3.75)

2013

• First QB taken:  EJ Manuel (1.16) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Geno Smith (2.39) OR Mike Glennon (3.73)

2014

• First QB taken:  Blake Bortles (1.3) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Derek Carr (2.36)

2015

• First QB taken:  Jameis Winston (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Winston

2016

• First QB taken:  Jared Goff (1.1)
• Best QB of class:  Dak Prescott (4.135) 

2017

• First QB taken:  Mitchell Trubisky (1.2) -- 1st round BUST
• Best QB of class:  Pat Mahomes (1.10)

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm your huckleberry.

QB's taken first vs best QB in the class (admittedly I'm being a bit subjective with my picks), 1980-2017:

Summary from the 38 draft classes

• 18/38 (47 %) instances, where the 1st QB of the class was the best one
• 14/34 (41 %) instances where the 1st QB was taken in the 1st round, and was a 1st round BUST
• 16/38 (42 %) instances where the best QB of the class was taken outside of the 1st round

Cool post. I'll add that there's a larger universe of QBs taken in round 1 versus first QBs taken and a much larger universe of QBs taken outside of round one. So while the numbers seem roughly even on where a QB can come from in the draft, the hit rates are dramatically different, favoring -- unsurprisingly -- the earlier picks.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

Cool post. I'll add that there's a larger universe of QBs taken in round 1 versus first QBs taken and a much larger universe of QBs taken outside of round one. So while the numbers seem roughly even on where a QB can come from in the draft, the hit rates are dramatically different, favoring -- unsurprisingly -- the earlier picks.

 

I was mainly just floored that Tom Tupa was the first QB off the board in 1988.  It probably has been mentioned many times on this board, but I had no idea.  It was worth the time just to find that little factoid out.  

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I was mainly just floored that Tom Tupa was the first QB off the board in 1988.  It probably has been mentioned many times on this board, but I had no idea.  It was worth the time just to find that little factoid out.  

Dude literally that was my first reaction when reading the list

[Ian Fleming]

20 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

This is not really a draft topic, but more of a we're already in the 2021 season hypothetical question.  What if the Jets draft Trevor Lawrence and he stinks?  I don't mean horrible, but borderline stinks. For example 2700 yards 15 TD/15 interceptions in his rookie year.  Then he follows it up with a 2022 season of 19TD/13 INT in his sophomore season along with 3,000 yards.  Do you try to trade him in year 3?  

I only ask because Sam Darnold put up 17TD/15INT and followed with 19TD/13TD in his second season.  For those that hold Darnold to a standard that he should be traded for Lawrence while he was throwing to Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Josh Malone this year, what would the bar be for Trevor Lawrence if he's throwing to 3 starting caliber receivers?  I'm not looking for an argument per se. I am looking for an honest fans assessment of what it would mean if Trevor Lawrence had Sam Darnold's equivalency of success? Continue building around him, or cut him loose?  

What is the bar to say Lawrence is successful or not the QB of the future?

Then the Jets keep drafting or signing QBs until a regime/ player optimum combination emerges. Nothing else that can be done.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Dude literally that was my first reaction when reading the list

At least we can say he was probably the best Punter drafted that year.  Greg Montgomery, taken 4 picks later by the Oilers, was close but he didn't have Tupa's longevity nor quite as big of a leg.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At least we can say he was probably the best Punter drafted that year.  Greg Montgomery, taken 4 picks later by the Oilers, was close but he didn't have Tupa's longevity nor quite as big of a leg.  

Nor was he the subject of a super interesting NFL Films documentary

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

It is a good point -- is there anyone who is sounding a credible warning bell about Lawrence? Not saying no one has, I just haven't seen it.

By credible I mean not just Jets fans worrying that we are cursed and anything we touch will turn to ash. Not knocking that, I am pretty cynical about this team, but it's also not a credible concern related to Lawrence as a prospect.

Nope, in every way he's a superior prospect to Darnold, and the comparison is not an apt one.  Fields is far superior as well.  People just like to equate the top QB class to other top QB's in other classes and assume they're all equal level prospects, and its all a crapshoot.  They're not, and it isn't as much of a crapshoot as people like to think.

I'll be very curious to see what kind of QBASE scores this year's QB class gets, then compare it to the 2018 draft class scores.  I'm sure Lance will be quite low because of his lack of college starts, but I'll bet Lawrence and Fields get gaudy scores. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope, in every way he's a superior prospect to Darnold, and the comparison is not an apt one.  Fields is far superior as well.

I'll be very curious to see what kind of QBASE scores this year's QB class gets, then compare it to the 2018 draft class scores.  I'm sure Lance will be quite low because of his lack of college starts, but I'll bet Lawrence and Fields get gaudy scores. 

Isn't that sh*t going to be super skewed by this abortive college season? 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Isn't that sh*t going to be super skewed by this abortive college season? 

Maybe, but the good news is it takes their entire college careers into account.  # of starts is, of course, very important, and Lawrence will end up with over 40, while Darnold only had 27.

QBASE is certainly not the be-all-end-all, but it always has value.

[jgb]

13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Maybe, but the good news is it takes their entire college careers into account.  # of starts is, of course, very important, and Lawrence will end up with over 40, while Darnold only had 27.

QBASE is certainly not the be-all-end-all, but it always has value.

Maybe that's why all the Darnold defenders love to talk about outliers seeing as the player's legend was built around the mother of all outliers

[EM31]

Jeff Blake baby

 

But then his best years came with the Bengals

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Otherwise known as "Tuesday" in the JiF household.

Just Tuesday?  Brah, get with it.