2021 Draft - Wheeling and Dealing

[BettyBoop]

For the purpose of this post I’m going to assume the Jets get the #1 pick and take Trevor Lawrence.  That’s when the fun starts.  Douglas will hold on to Darnold until the draft and likely swing a deal for him.  Let’s say he gets the Saints to bite and gets their first round pick, in the 28-32 range.  There will no doubt be several first round graded guys who fall to the second round.  On Friday, Douglas will field calls from several teams trying to get their guy and Douglas swings another deal for #33 and gets a second rounder (43-50 range) and a third rounder.  That leaves Douglas with a slew of picks to bolster the roster.  Other assumption is that Douglas signs a WR, CB, IOL and OLB to start in 2021, all 1b types.  I don’t think he will break the bank on anyone but will bring in more reliable starters than he did last year.

That leaves us with three 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder and three 3rd rounders.  That haul should corral two WR, TE, IOL, CB, RB and a C.

Let the madness begin!

[chirorob]

I for sure could see him trading back in the 2nd or 3rd rounds to get more picks, or even more picks into the 2022 draft.  With so many holes to fill, they just need players.

He traded back last year in the 2nd, and still got a WR he wanted as well as more picks, I think he does that again.

 

[Beerfish]

I do not think the Jets will get a 1st rounder for Darnold.

I think they can get a 2nd rounder, plus.

I would not trade him for anything less than a 2nd rounder plus.  If the value was not there I would keep him even if we drafted lawrence or fields.

(I know we will have a flood of people in here wanting to dump darnold for a 5th round pick.  The same that wanted to dump Adams for a 2nd rounder.)

The plus part of a darnold trade could be another pick, future 2nd rounder or a 3rd perhaps or be more creative and get a player back.  We have all been hearing that a number of teams are going to be in a cap crunch, so as part of a Darnold trade along with a pick get a good player or a promising player.

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, chirorob said:

I for sure could see him trading back in the 2nd or 3rd rounds to get more picks, or even more picks into the 2022 draft.  With so many holes to fill, they just need players.

He traded back last year in the 2nd, and still got a WR he wanted as well as more picks, I think he does that again.

 

No, this has been the mistake everyone keeps falling for.  You don't just need players and new isn't better.  

You need GOOD players - of which the Jets have close to none.  HE shouldn't be trading down - he should be taking the players he can where he sits.

If he can get a 1 for Darnold (which I doubt, but if he can). That's 4 picks in the top 33 - really no need to trade down.  

[Sonny Werblin]

If we draft Lawrence, JD will play the Saints, Niners, Steelers and Broncos off each other to get the best deal. If that deal does not include a First Round pick, he will hold on to Darnold for now.

No doubt JD will do a fair amount of trading back. He needs bodies and he's the first Jet GM in a long time who seems to actually be on the ball when it comes to having a deep knowledge of the players available in the draft after the first round.

[oatmeal]

11 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

No, this has been the mistake everyone keeps falling for.  You don't just need players and new isn't better.  

You need GOOD players - of which the Jets have close to none.  HE shouldn't be trading down - he should be taking the players he can where he sits.

If he can get a 1 for Darnold (which I doubt, but if he can). That's 4 picks in the top 33 - really no need to trade down.  

Agreed highly doubt we get a 1 for Darnold, the QB class is deep and if I’m a GM I take a shot on a Qb in the first before I give up that same pick for a JAG. 
 

 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

The Saints currently have 3 QBs better then Darnold. Why are they trading a 1st in such a position? 

Im fixated on landing a 2nd and a 4th or 5th rounder.  Even if it's for the 2022 draft. Most likely a 5th rounders that's gets converted to a 4th if he's still on the team on xyz date.

As for as the Seahawks first and Jets 2nd rounder. I feel we should explore moving up with those picks. This is coming from a guy who's always yelling to trade back. There's some studs all over the 1st round that we should aggressively pursue. Kyle Pitt and Waddle just to name two.

[rangerous]

29 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If we draft Lawrence, JD will play the Saints, Niners, Steelers and Broncos off each other to get the best deal. If that deal does not include a First Round pick, he will hold on to Darnold for now.

No doubt JD will do a fair amount of trading back. He needs bodies and he's the first Jet GM in a long time who seems to actually be on the ball when it comes to having a deep knowledge of the players available in the draft after the first round.

Darnold is going to be an issue if they draft Lawrence.  I know we all want a first rounder and there may be teams willing to trade one, but if they don’t get such an offer then they have to drop it.  I don’t think holding onto him after the draft is a solution.  I think his value will continue to decline until he’s finally cut.  The jets aren’t going to do his fifth year option.  We’ll see.

[Sonny Werblin]

18 minutes ago, rangerous said:

Darnold is going to be an issue if they draft Lawrence.  I know we all want a first rounder and there may be teams willing to trade one, but if they don’t get such an offer then they have to drop it.  I don’t think holding onto him after the draft is a solution.  I think his value will continue to decline until he’s finally cut.  The jets aren’t going to do his fifth year option.  We’ll see.

If no one offers a First round pick, I don't think JD makes the trade figuring that the chances of Darnold's value going up after the draft are pretty decent. I also think you underestimate the arrogance of player evaluators. For teams that rated Darnold high coming our of college, there is a good chance that they will still regard him highly blaming his problems on Gase and the Jets. They will "believe" that they can put Darnold back on the right track. They might be right or wrong, but it doesn't matter, because they will refuse to believe that their initial evaluation was wrong. 

[#27TheDominator]

6 minutes ago, rangerous said:

Darnold is going to be an issue if they draft Lawrence.  I know we all want a first rounder and there may be teams willing to trade one, but if they don’t get such an offer then they have to drop it.  I don’t think holding onto him after the draft is a solution.  I think his value will continue to decline until he’s finally cut.  The jets aren’t going to do his fifth year option.  We’ll see.

I don't see this as an inevitability.  If the Jets think a team will pay the 5th year option they can offer it.  If they don't, they can hold him.  They will give them a backup QB with starter experience for a decent price for the season.  If anybody signs him to halfway decent contract he will net a comp pick.  The Titans didn't exercise the option on Conklin and are looking at getting a 3rd.  Most of these guys end of rating much less though.  Winston only would have net a 7th and Mariota a 5th.  The pick would be in 2023. 

IMO, if you can't get at least a 2021 3rd you hold on to him unless you plan to cut him anyway, or if you somehow think he will be a detriment to your new QB.

[derp]

I agree the second round is the sweet spot for a trade down. You’ve got a full night to take offers and just took a player reasonable recently. Should be able to hopefully get a good deal and accumulate picks.

We don’t really have a serious track record with Douglas. Thus far he’s taken a premium position guy in the first round. It’ll be interesting if he leans that way again and maybe takes an edge which would annoy the fan base or takes a less premium position guy. But I think he hangs on to the Seattle pick for the fifth year option and because he can trade down at the top of the second.

As for Darnold it’s honestly impossible to tell what the Jets get. I have a feeling they can do better than we expect as it’s a premium position and only takes one team to really like him. But a second rounder wouldn’t be the end of the world. Douglas has also shown he’s creative in draft pick trades so perhaps something like a two plus a conditional 2022 pick that has a wide range of outcomes (say anywhere from first to fourth) depending on starts, stats, etc would make a lot of sense.

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If no one offers a First round pick, I don't think JD makes the trade figuring that the chances of Darnold's value going up after the draft are pretty decent. I also think you underestimate the arrogance of player evaluators. For teams that rated Darnold high coming our of college, there is a good chance that they will still regard him highly blaming his problems on Gase and the Jets. They will "believe" that they can put Darnold back on the right track. They might be right or wrong, but it doesn't matter, because they will refuse to believe that their initial evaluation was wrong. 

Ring, Ring: "Hello Joe, this is John Elway..."

[jcass10]

I think they'll get a mid to late second round pick for Darnold. Probably a fourth or fifth as well.

I also think either Seattle's first or the Jets second is going to be traded back, and will net them an additional third. 

That will give them two first rounders (QB/OL), two second rounders (WR/CB), and three third rounders (RB/Defense/OL)

[Sonny Werblin]

39 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Ring, Ring: "Hello Joe, this is John Elway..."

Elway LOVES Sam.

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, jcass10 said:

I think they'll get a mid to late second round pick for Darnold. Probably a fourth or fifth as well.

I also think either Seattle's first or the Jets second is going to be traded back, and will net them an additional third. 

That will give them two first rounders (QB/OL), two second rounders (WR/CB), and three third rounders (RB/Defense/OL)

I like keeping Seattle’s pick because of the fifth year option. Could be very valuable for Etienne if he’s there so You don’t have to give a running back a second contract or even a good pass rusher because they get PAID if they deliver

[rangerous]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't see this as an inevitability.  If the Jets think a team will pay the 5th year option they can offer it.  If they don't, they can hold him.  They will give them a backup QB with starter experience for a decent price for the season.  If anybody signs him to halfway decent contract he will net a comp pick.  The Titans didn't exercise the option on Conklin and are looking at getting a 3rd.  Most of these guys end of rating much less though.  Winston only would have net a 7th and Mariota a 5th.  The pick would be in 2023. 

IMO, if you can't get at least a 2021 3rd you hold on to him unless you plan to cut him anyway, or if you somehow think he will be a detriment to your new QB.

I guess the free agent compensation might set darnolds trade floor.  I’m thinking it would be offered to the jets if he goes free agent and, as you said, might be at least a 3rd rounder. Well just have watch this play out. It could still be that Douglas intends to keep him and trade back.

[Jetster]

19 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I do not think the Jets will get a 1st rounder for Darnold.

I think they can get a 2nd rounder, plus.

I would not trade him for anything less than a 2nd rounder plus.  If the value was not there I would keep him even if we drafted lawrence or fields.

(I know we will have a flood of people in here wanting to dump darnold for a 5th round pick.  The same that wanted to dump Adams for a 2nd rounder.)

The plus part of a darnold trade could be another pick, future 2nd rounder or a 3rd perhaps or be more creative and get a player back.  We have all been hearing that a number of teams are going to be in a cap crunch, so as part of a Darnold trade along with a pick get a good player or a promising player.

If the Saints want Sam, I want Lattimore. Saints are way over the cap. But I would only give up a #3 for Lattimore so I would ask the Saints for their 3rd round pick also. Taking Lattimore helps the Saints 10.75 million cap reduction, gets us another 3rd round pick now having three 3rd rounders. 

Trade: Sam Darnold to Saints for Marshon Lattimore & Saints 3rd round pick. 

You are not getting a player as good as Lattimore on defense in this draft. 

[Wonderboy]

21 hours ago, David Harris said:

Ring, Ring: "Hello Joe, this is John Elway..."

Is Darnold any better than Lock?  Hi Joe its John. What you want for Darnold? Lets deal.  Hi John gimme a #1. CLICK 

[kdels62]

20 hours ago, David Harris said:

I like keeping Seattle’s pick because of the fifth year option. Could be very valuable for Etienne if he’s there so You don’t have to give a running back a second contract or even a good pass rusher because they get PAID if they deliver

Never be the team that pays RBs their second contract.

[#27TheDominator]

On 11/25/2020 at 12:21 PM, kdels62 said:

Never be the team that pays RBs their second contract.

We know that.  That is why we keep giving guys like Forte, and Gore, their third, fourth or fifth contracts.,