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Players who you were wrong about heading into NFL drafts:


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On 11/30/2020 at 1:47 PM, Sonny Werblin said:

Ryan Leaf. I was convinced that he was a better player than Peyton Manning. 

This was my thought too. He seemed like a can't miss star QB coming out of Washington State.

Anyone who says they knew he would be a bust is a liar.

The lesson here: Beware PAC 10/12 QBs  Outside of Andrew Luck (who didn't win anything) they all seem to fall short of expectations.

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10 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Oh I guess I should also include being hopeful that Hackenberg would be good, but that was almost entirely due to the above video from Brett Kollman (aka the guy who sounds like he knows what he's talking about but, in reality, is probably is no smarter than the average Joe).

Serves you right for listening to somebody who sounds like he knows what he's talking about.

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I think I'll take the easy out on this answer and just say "at least half" which is probably on par with most NFL GMs. Too many to name (either way)

At least half of the guys that I thought would be good aren't/weren't.

At least half of the guys that I thought would bust don't/didn't.

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1 hour ago, y2k8 said:

This was my thought too. He seemed like a can't miss star QB coming out of Washington State.

Anyone who says they knew he would be a bust is a liar.

The lesson here: Beware PAC 10/12 QBs  Outside of Andrew Luck (who didn't win anything) they all seem to fall short of expectations.

Totally agree. Other than Aikman, Elway, Fouts, Moon and Rogers. And maybe Bledsoe, Brunnell, Plummer, Palmer, Goff, Chandler and now maybe Herbert buncha loser QBs coming out of the Pac 10 who never turn into good NFL QBs.

BTW, I'm thinking that is at least 4 going on 5 HOF QBs. Does another conference have more?

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Ryan Leaf:

I actually thought there was something to the battle between who was better: him or Peyton Manning

Vernon Ghoulston:

I knew he was a work-out warrior and was absolutely not the final piece of the puzzle.  There were MANY who thought that as well, but back in those times before everyone declared they saw that train wreck happening, there were MANY who were on that band wagon....amazing how time affects your perspective.  But I DO remember that one quite well.

 

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42 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Funny.  This is one of the few places where i was right on a RB.  RB is one of the few positions where I tend not to be obsessed with measurables.  That is why I accepted the Perine pick which I did not love.  I felt Chubb did well enough at the combine to indicate that he recovered from the knee.  On the other hand, maybe I just liked Chubb because of the number he wore. 

My concern with Chubb had  nothing to do with Combine/measureables.  I felt like anytime we played a good defense, Michel outperformed Chubb.  Also though Michel was more of a threat in the passing game.  Really thought his skill set would translate better. 

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44 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Totally agree. Other than Aikman, Elway, Fouts, Moon and Rogers. And maybe Bledso, Brunnell, Plummer, Palmer, Goff, Chandler and now maybe Herbert buncha loser QBs coming out of the Pac 10 who never turn into good NFL QBs.

BTW, I'm thinking that is at least 4 going on 5 HOF QBs. Does another conference have more?

I see what you did there- cute - but outside of 3 of your ancient examples (I can't speak to the expectations of Dan Fouts coming out of school) I'd say that of those drafted in the first round the past 25 years did not live up to expectation. That includes Bledsoe Palmer and Goff.  

 

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1 hour ago, y2k8 said:

I see what you did there- cute - but outside of 3 of your ancient examples (I can't speak to the expectations of Dan Fouts coming out of school) I'd say that of those drafted in the first round the past 25 years did not live up to expectation. That includes Bledsoe Palmer and Goff.  

 

And what college conference produces these magical QB prospects that have been drafted in the first round over the past 25 and who have lived up to expectations? 

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6 hours ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

Serves you right for listening to somebody who sounds like he knows what he's talking about.

In that sense, KNEW Hackenberg was hot garbage. Didn't understand the pick at all. As I said then, open secret EVERYONE involved in Penn State football described him as an uncoachable douchebag. NOBODY on a Big 10 major college campus liked their BMOC. Rather than recognize the people who knew him best thought he was a dick and a bad QB, then Jets GM Mike Maccagnan, well, you know....

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6 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

And what college conference produces these magical QB prospects that have been drafted in the first round over the past 25 and who have lived up to expectations? 

Every conference has more than a few disappointments, but the Big 12 and ACC seem to have a better percentage of 1rst round QBs that live up to expectations than the list of PAC QBs.  Aaron Rodgers has clearly exceeded all expectorations and maybe Luck met them, but the rest?  

Will be interesting to see if Herbert will be the first Oregon QB to not bust.

PS; How did you forget Jim Plunkett in your ancient history list? Was it because he was technically a bust with the Patriots? Good thing he didn't get drafted 3 years ago ...

 

2020 1 1 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State
  2 1 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama
  3 1 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon
               
2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
  2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke
  3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
               
2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
  2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC
  3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
  4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
  5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
               
2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
  2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
  3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
               
2016 1 1 1 1 Jared Goff Rams California
  2 1 2 2 Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
               
2015 1 1 1 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Florida State
  2 1 2 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Oregon
               
2014 1 1 3 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Central Florida
  2 1 22 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Texas A&M
  3 1 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Louisville
               
2013 1 1 16 16 EJ Manuel Bills Florida State
               
2012 1 1 1 1 Andrew Luck Colts Stanford
  2 1 2 2 Robert Griffin Redskins Baylor
  3 1 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Texas A&M
  4 1 22 22 Brandon Weeden Browns Oklahoma State
               
2011 1 1 1 1 Cam Newton Panthers Auburn
               
2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma
  2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida
               
2009 1 1 1 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia
  2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC
  3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State
               
2008 1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College
  2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware
               
2007 1 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State
  2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame
               
2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas
  2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC
  3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt
               
2005 1 1 1 1 Alex Smith 49ers Utah
  2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
  3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn
               
2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
  2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
  3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)
  4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane
               
2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC
  2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall
  3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
  4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
               
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
  2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
  3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
               
2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
  2 2 1 32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue
               
2000 1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
               
1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
  2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
  3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
  4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida
  5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
               
1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
  2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
               

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, y2k8 said:

Every conference has more than a few disappointments, but the Big 12 and ACC seem to have a better percentage of 1rst round QBs that live up to expectations than the list of PAC QBs.  Aaron Rodgers has clearly exceeded all expectorations and maybe Luck met them, but the rest?  

Will be interesting to see if Herbert will be the first Oregon QB to not bust.

PS; How did you forget Jim Plunkett in your ancient history list? Was it because he was technically a bust with the Patriots? Good thing he didn't get drafted 3 years ago ...

 

2020 1 1 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State
  2 1 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama
  3 1 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon
               
2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
  2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke
  3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
               
2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
  2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC
  3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
  4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
  5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
               
2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
  2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
  3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
               
2016 1 1 1 1 Jared Goff Rams California
  2 1 2 2 Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
               
2015 1 1 1 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Florida State
  2 1 2 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Oregon
               
2014 1 1 3 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Central Florida
  2 1 22 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Texas A&M
  3 1 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Louisville
               
2013 1 1 16 16 EJ Manuel Bills Florida State
               
2012 1 1 1 1 Andrew Luck Colts Stanford
  2 1 2 2 Robert Griffin Redskins Baylor
  3 1 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Texas A&M
  4 1 22 22 Brandon Weeden Browns Oklahoma State
               
2011 1 1 1 1 Cam Newton Panthers Auburn
               
2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma
  2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida
               
2009 1 1 1 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia
  2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC
  3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State
               
2008 1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College
  2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware
               
2007 1 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State
  2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame
               
2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas
  2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC
  3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt
               
2005 1 1 1 1 Alex Smith 49ers Utah
  2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
  3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn
               
2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
  2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
  3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)
  4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane
               
2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC
  2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall
  3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
  4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
               
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
  2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
  3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
               
2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
  2 2 1 32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue
               
2000 1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
               
1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
  2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
  3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
  4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida
  5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
               
1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
  2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
               

 

 

 

Are you going to answer my question to identify the conference(s) that have produced QBs taken at the top who succeed at an appreciably higher rate than the PAC12? All your list proves is that the PAC12 seems to produce a higher volume of QBs evaluators feel are worthy of a top pick. So, many fail because the hit rate overall for top pick QBs is low. So, once again, is there some conference out there that produces successful NFL QBs at a hit rate at the top of the draft that makes you favor QBs from that conference?

BTW, it looks to me like the like the hit rate is about 31.25% for PAC12 QBs with Palmer, Rodgers, Smith, Luck and Goff that would be 5 out of 16. All of them are (or were) productive starters who who won and took their team to the playoffs. If your criteria for a successful pick of a QB at the top of the draft is a  HOF career or even a SB appearance, you know nothing of the NFL draft. Few first round selections at any position meet that criteria. Also, if Herbert becomes successful than the hit rate goes up to 37.5%.

I am anxious to learn of the conference that does better than this.

 

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i purchased a Dewayne Robertson jersey, then several years later, purged it by fire

now i kinda wish I had it tho 

who'd mess with the guy on the subway in the peeling DRob jersey?

it's like wearing a label on one's head "I'm clinically insane"  

i'd probably have the whole car to myself, like the Joker or Liz Lemon 

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2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Are you going to answer my question to identify the conference(s) that have produced QBs taken at the top who succeed at an appreciably higher rate than the PAC12? All your list proves is that the PAC12 seems to produce a higher volume of QBs evaluators feel are worthy of a top pick. So, many fail because the hit rate overall for top pick QBs is low. So, once again, is there some conference out there that produces successful NFL QBs at a hit rate at the top of the draft that makes you favor QBs from that conference?

BTW, it looks to me like the like the hit rate is about 31.25% for PAC12 QBs with Palmer, Rodgers, Smith, Luck and Goff that would be 5 out of 16. All of them are (or were) productive starters who who won and took their team to the playoffs. If your criteria for a successful pick of a QB at the top of the draft is a  HOF career or even a SB appearance, you know nothing of the NFL draft. Few first round selections at any position meet that criteria. Also, if Herbert becomes successful than the hit rate goes up to 37.5%.

I am anxious to learn of the conference that does better than this.

 

I did. The ACC and Big 12.  Mahomes, Watson, Murray and LaMar alone bear this out. 

And if you think Palmer, Smith and Goff have lived up to expectations, you are wrong.

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18 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

I did. The ACC and Big 12.  Mahomes, Watson, Murray and LaMar alone bear this out. 

And if you think Palmer, Smith and Goff have lived up to expectations, you are wrong.

ACC -- Mahomes and and Murray, But what about Weeden, Bradford, Quinn and Young. And, under your criteria Mayfield?

Big 12 Jackson and Watson, But what about Daniel Jones, Trubitchsky, Winston and Manuel?

The difference in success rates between the conferences is not statistically significant. It is about a one-third success rate for all of them. There are simply a higher volume of QBs chosen from the PAC 12 as compared to any other conference. 

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