Expect Six QB Picks In The First Round

[BroadwayRay]

I don’t think there is any doubt this is going to happen ...

PFF:

THE BIG TAKEAWAY

The 2021 NFL Draft might tie the 1983 draft for most quarterbacks taken in Round 1

The most quarterbacks ever selected in the first round of an NFL draft came all the way back in 1983. That year, six signal-callers heard their names called in Round 1, three of which ended up being Hall-of-Famers (John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino). Given the current state of a few NFL franchises, as well as the play of some college quarterbacks, I think it’s likely we see that record tied next April. 

Six college quarterbacks — Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Trask and Mac Jones — have or currently produced at a level that warrants early-round consideration. And plenty more than six NFL franchises will be searching for a franchise quarterback come next April — from the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are all but locked into the first and second overall picks, to the teams that will likely own a fringe top-10 pick, such as the Chicago Bears or Washington Football Team, to teams with aging quarterbacks that are picking in the back of Round 1, such as the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers. 

There is a lot of supply and a lot of demand. Lawrence and Fields are penciled in as future members of the Jets and Jaguars, but the rest of the bunch is where it gets interesting.

As we saw on Sunday Night Football, the Bears will be in the conversation to nab the third quarterback off the board in April. Mitchell Trubisky made his return to the starting lineup and responded with an NFL-high five turnover-worthy plays against the Green Bay Packers. He failed to record a big-time throw and posted a 46.5 passing grade on the night. Chicago started the season with a 5-1 record and has since lost five in a row. 

The Football Team will also be in the running for that third quarterback, assuming they are unable to win the disastrous NFC East. Alex Smith hasn't quite been a liability at the signal-caller spot, but the veteran quarterback who is two years removed from one of the worst injuries in NFL history isn’t a long-term solution. Smith earned a 67.9 PFF grade in his team's win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving day, bringing his season-long mark to 67.1.

However, those aren't the only teams picking in the first half of Round 1 that could be looking for a quarterback in 2021. A handful of wild cards are in that range, too, such as the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.

Atlanta is setting itself up to be in quarterback purgatory with the aging Matt Ryan and a roster that isn’t built to win now. Ryan has had moments where he looks like he is in his prime, posting four single-game grades above 83.0 this season, but he has also flashed signs of decline — such as against the Las Vegas Raiders this past week. Ryan posted a 70.4 PFF grade, the fifth-best mark of his 11 starts. That ranking isn’t necessarily horrible, but it’s less than ideal and far from the level we saw from him in his prime years prior to last season. He’s entering the final stages of his playing career, but the Falcons are nowhere near close to being able to win now.

As for the Broncos, they may be looking to hedge their bet with Drew Lock due to the 2019 second-round pick’s performance to date. He has started just 13 games in his NFL career, but it has been entirely underwhelming. Lock's career passing grade sits at 57.4, and he showed no signs of progress in his most recent starts prior to missing Week 12 due to COVID-19 protocols. On throws of 10-plus yards downfield this season, Lock ranks second-to-last in uncatchable pass rate, at 46.3%. A quarterback in Round 1 certainly isn’t out of the question for Denver.

But perhaps the most interesting team of them all is the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick has three options: Extend Cam Newton, draft a quarterback in the first round or both. Considering Newton’s performance this season, there’s a strong chance we see one of the latter two. Newton had his worst game as a Patriot against the Cardinals on Sunday, generating a 32.5 passing grade. He has led New England to rank 24th in per-play passing efficiency this season, and he now ranks third-to-last in big-time throw rate.

That's already six teams, and it's without discussing the franchises in the back half of the first round — Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. On top of that, we could see dark horses in the conversation, as well, such as the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers. 

Regardless of how you feel about fringe first-round prospects like Trask and Jones, it seems probable at this rate that they make their way into Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft to tie the 1983 record. There is just too much demand at quarterback for that not to be the case and some of the play in Week 12 verified that.

[Chrebetfan80]

I think the predraft process is going to be big for guys like wilson, lance, trask and jones to be firmly in that first round conversation.  MY take on these guys based off of the people I've talked to:

Trask in particular is interesting because he is putting up such crazy numbers this year, and undoubtedly will raise some comparisons to joe burrow since both really will have only 1 year of starting QB experience. But I think the predraft will be important to see how he can fix his mechanical issues in order to make up for his average arm strength. If he cant consistently get into a good position to use his legs and hips effectively in his throwing motion his arm strength is extremely average and I think that will show more in the pre draft process.  He's bailed out on a lot of deep passes by extremely athletic catches by his WRs and Pitts.

Wilson I like from what I've seen, A lot of moxy, good athlete, good but not great arm.  His accuracy was a concern last season but from the numbers (I havent watched enough tape yet) looks improved.  I think from guys I talk to the main concern is durability, he had shoulder and hand on his throwing arm injuries,  and some guys feel that with his 3/4 delivery it'll put increased strain on that throwing shoulder.  

Lance to me is a big wild card.  Can operate under center which I love, really good arm, good size. Mechanics can be a mess sometimes, dude takes a lot of hits, accuracy can be spotty too even without pressure.  Then its the NDSU thing, what exactly is he against the best of the best?  I just dont know enough to judge him at all. His production is crazy, and he's young (RS Sophomore), so theoretically there is a lot of room to grow if groomed properly.  I just cant justify pulling the trigger on him right now early. I think he's a guy that if he went to a team with an established veteran and they let him sit and learn he could be really good (Minnesota comes to mind).

Mac Jones is the guy i think is more of a 2nd rounder than a first.  I like what I see in terms of reading defenses and the ability to throw guys open.  He's completing a lot of passes (albeit to a fantastic WR core), but he's not dinking and dunking to do so which is impressive.  I just question the mobility which I think is a must now in the NFL. You see how much of an advantage it is to have guys that can get outside the pocket and make plays even if they arent running all over the place.  I dont know, could just be because I havent gotten to watch enough bama this year, but I just see him as a really good 2nd round pick so far. 

 

 

 

[BroadwayRay]

 

 

[JustInFudge]

I dont think Mac Jones and Kyle Trask go in the 1st round.  I think they both go in the 2nd.  They're both very limited QB's even though they're highly efficient and putting up some gawdy stats vs. all SEC comp, I just dont see them as 1st round prospects.  What they're both doing is very impressive but I dont see the predraft process helping them to be honest.  Very limited athletes, limited arm strength, not mobile, surrounded by 1st/2nd round talent in great systems.  You still have to produce but we've seen this play out for guys like that in the draft and in the NFL.

 

[kdels62]

I think you’re gonna get 3 in the top 5. And then Trask, Jones, Lance all coming off at various points. 

Jets, Jags, Cowboys, WFT, 49ers, Saints, Vikings, Bears, Tampa Bay, Colts, Patriots

[Beerfish]

I doubt this happens but I would be elated if it did.  Just forces more non QB talent down to our late 1st rounder and our 2nd rounder.

[Jetsfan80]

I mean, there's only 6 teams who I would say have QB as a top 3 need:

• Jets
• Jaguars
• Bears
• Washington
• Colts
• Falcons (Ryan's cap charge goes up to $40.9M next season and $41.6M in 2022)

Are we really thinking all 6 of those teams (or perhaps swap in one or more alternate "surprise team", like the Saints, 49ers, Vikings, or Lions) are going to all use 1st round picks on QB's?  Certainly its possible, but I tend to agree with @JiF, where not all of the current top QB prospects will be seen as 1st round guys and will thus drop beyond the 1st round.  

I think just 4 QB's go in the 1st.  Maybe a 5th goes, with a team trading up into the back end of the 1st to grab Mac Jones or Trask to get that 5th year option.  4 or 5 would fall in line with historical trends.  In the last 10 drafts (excluding that terrible 2013 class), the average has been 3.1 QB's per draft.  5 being the highest in 2018.  

[Columbia Jet Fan]

Good b/c it will push talent up to Seattle pick and #33

 

Bad b/c it probably hurts Darnold's trade value having so many good prospects

[nycdan]

On 12/1/2020 at 4:19 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean, there's only 6 teams who I would say have QB as a top 3 need:

• Jets
• Jaguars
• Bears
• Washington
• Colts
• Falcons (Ryan's cap charge goes up to $40.9M next season and $41.6M in 2022)

Are we really thinking all 6 of those teams (or perhaps swap in one or more alternate "surprise team", like the Saints, 49ers, Vikings, or Lions) are going to all use 1st round picks on QB's?  Certainly its possible, but I tend to agree with @JiF, where not all of the current top QB prospects will be seen as 1st round guys and will thus drop beyond the 1st round.  

I think just 4 QB's go in the 1st.  Maybe a 5th goes, with a team trading up into the back end of the 1st to grab Mac Jones or Trask to get that 5th year option.  4 or 5 would fall in line with historical trends.  In the last 10 drafts (excluding that terrible 2013 class), the average has been 3.1 QB's per draft.  5 being the highest in 2018.  

In addition to your maybe list where I think the 49ers and Lions should almost certainly be looking, I'd add the Broncos who are almost certainly going to be eyeing the market and the draft for a new starter.

 

 

 

 

 

[flgreen]

IMO it is possible that Zack Wilson squeezes out Fields at #2. And I really like Fields.  Guy really impressed me on the final drive of the loss to CC.

Odds are that BYU will pull San Jose State in the Famous Potato Bowl.  (lol)   Can't wait to watch.  Big performance puts him in the conversation IMO

[Philc1]

On 12/2/2020 at 9:50 PM, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Good b/c it will push talent up to Seattle pick and #33

 

Bad b/c it probably hurts Darnold's trade value having so many good prospects

Keep Sam on the roster for the last year of his contract.  Phillip Rivers sat for a couple years while watching Drew Brees go to the playoffs.

[JohnnyLV]

On 12/1/2020 at 1:19 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean, there's only 6 teams who I would say have QB as a top 3 need:

• Jets
• Jaguars
• Bears
• Washington
• Colts
• Falcons (Ryan's cap charge goes up to $40.9M next season and $41.6M in 2022)

Are we really thinking all 6 of those teams (or perhaps swap in one or more alternate "surprise team", like the Saints, 49ers, Vikings, or Lions) are going to all use 1st round picks on QB's?  Certainly its possible, but I tend to agree with @JiF, where not all of the current top QB prospects will be seen as 1st round guys and will thus drop beyond the 1st round.  

I think just 4 QB's go in the 1st.  Maybe a 5th goes, with a team trading up into the back end of the 1st to grab Mac Jones or Trask to get that 5th year option.  4 or 5 would fall in line with historical trends.  In the last 10 drafts (excluding that terrible 2013 class), the average has been 3.1 QB's per draft.  5 being the highest in 2018.  

Boy I don't know. You could make really good arguments that Dallas, Broncos, 49ers, and NE all have QB as a solid Top 4 need. Dallas is picking easily Top 10 and they are up against the cap. $40 million a year or $40 million over 5 years for your QB. Broncos should know by now that Lock is not the answer. 49ers can get away from Garrapollo for almost nothing and Mullens is not the guy. NE has essentially nothing at QB. If they had better QB play they likely have 8 wins. Newton has single handedly cost them three games.

I tend to agree a bit with the historical aspect and one of these teams will likely solve their QB need with Prescott and possibly Darnold or Jimmy G so while I think there is 10 teams with high QB need, I am not sure 6 get taken but it is certainly not an outlandish claim.

[GREENBEAN]

On 12/1/2020 at 12:29 PM, JiF said:

I dont think Mac Jones and Kyle Trask go in the 1st round.  I think they both go in the 2nd.  They're both very limited QB's even though they're highly efficient and putting up some gawdy stats vs. all SEC comp, I just dont see them as 1st round prospects.  What they're both doing is very impressive but I dont see the predraft process helping them to be honest.  Very limited athletes, limited arm strength, not mobile, surrounded by 1st/2nd round talent in great systems.  You still have to produce but we've seen this play out for guys like that in the draft and in the NFL.

 

Interesting points. I'm looking forward to the combine and whether or not it happens this year.  I think Mac Jones and Trask can really improve their stock if they show up well there. But like you said it could really hurt them.  The parts of this that are most interesting is that if 6 QB's get taken in the first that pushes some top tier talent down some. That's good for us obviously. 

Where it's bad is that if the teams looking for a QB to groom for a season take that guy in the 1st or even 2nd, that decimates any draft value that Sam would have.  The ol double edge. 

Where it gets REEEEALLLY interesting is if we lose out on the 1st overall. 

[JustInFudge]

48 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

Interesting points. I'm looking forward to the combine and whether or not it happens this year.  I think Mac Jones and Trask can really improve their stock if they show up well there. But like you said it could really hurt them.  The parts of this that are most interesting is that if 6 QB's get taken in the first that pushes some top tier talent down some. That's good for us obviously. 

Where it's bad is that if the teams looking for a QB to groom for a season take that guy in the 1st or even 2nd, that decimates any draft value that Sam would have.  The ol double edge. 

Where it gets REEEEALLLY interesting is if we lose out on the 1st overall. 

Did you see the Gator game tonight?  Trask put up a monster stat line but you got to see what I was talking about. He’s a statue.  Can’t evade pressure.  Makes mistakes with defenders in his face, etc.  he’s just limited, bottom line, don’t see the process helping him.  

[JustInFudge]

On 12/13/2020 at 12:01 AM, GREENBEAN said:

Interesting points. I'm looking forward to the combine and whether or not it happens this year.  I think Mac Jones and Trask can really improve their stock if they show up well there. But like you said it could really hurt them.  The parts of this that are most interesting is that if 6 QB's get taken in the first that pushes some top tier talent down some. That's good for us obviously. 

Where it's bad is that if the teams looking for a QB to groom for a season take that guy in the 1st or even 2nd, that decimates any draft value that Sam would have.  The ol double edge. 

Where it gets REEEEALLLY interesting is if we lose out on the 1st overall. 

Pretty good article on what I was talking about, dude just doesnt handle pressure well...

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-draft-winners-and-losers-why-florida-qb-kyle-trask-might-not-be-a-firstround-pick-193506370.html

[sec101row23]

42 minutes ago, JiF said:

Pretty good article on what I was talking about, dude just doesnt handle pressure well...

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-draft-winners-and-losers-why-florida-qb-kyle-trask-might-not-be-a-firstround-pick-193506370.html

Trask should come back for another year.  Next years QB class isn’t nearly as competitive.  

[UntouchableCrew]

I have a hard time seeing 6. I'm not sure they're all 1st round prospects and I don't think that many teams are in need of a QB.

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Trask should come back for another year.  Next years QB class isn’t nearly as competitive.  

Possibly.  There is always a risk with coming back but he might be able to benefit.  Granted, I'm not sure he'll ever be a 1st rounder.  That said, as much as I love Trask, after watching LSU....I wonder if the offense is more dynamic with Jones.  We cant run the ball, Jones can and he's got a great arm.  Much much better athlete than Trask.  Trask just legit cant handle pressure.  If everything isnt perfect, he's kind of a mess.  Which could be more reason to come back...that and unfinished business.  Who knows, tough call for a guy like him.

 

 

 

[GREENBEAN]

9 hours ago, JiF said:

Pretty good article on what I was talking about, dude just doesnt handle pressure well...

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-draft-winners-and-losers-why-florida-qb-kyle-trask-might-not-be-a-firstround-pick-193506370.html

Cool.  Yeah  I'll be reading that .

I don't watch full games of FL much. I was able to catch the Missouri game I think it was. Trask looked really good as far as getting the job done, but have to admit it wasn't s game I was tryi g to analyze. I'll be looking at him with more constructive eyes. Looking for what you were saying.  

Now, Dont go telling me Kyle Pitts is no good    

[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Cool.  Yeah  I'll be reading that .

I don't watch full games of FL much. I was able to catch the Missouri game I think it was. Trask looked really good as far as getting the job done, but have to admit it wasn't s game I was tryi g to analyze. I'll be looking at him with more constructive eyes. Looking for what you were saying.  

Now, Dont go telling me Kyle Pitts is no good    

Pitts is the real deal.  Crazy good hands, crazy good route runner, he's going to be a match up night mare in the NFL.   So is Kadarius Tony, that kid is pure electricity.  I'm not sure I've ever seen a more elusive player.  He reminds me of Dante Hall but he can do it as a WR too, not just kick offs.   I think both are going to make really good pro's.  Both dudes I'd love to have on the Jets.

Trevon Grimes is another one.  I think he's going to be mid-round steal for some team. Big physical receiver, versatile, can run every route, great hands, can go up and get it and make some runs after the catch.

 

[JustInFudge]

Check this spin move on the 2nd play of this highlight reel, kid is as shifty as I've ever seen:

 

[Mackman55]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Check this spin move on the 2nd play of this highlight reel, kid is as shifty as I've ever seen:

 

He absolutely impressed me watching that game, what a match up nightmare if properly utilized in a real NFL offense. Hopefully the Jets will have one next year.......