Pederson On Hot Seat In PHI?

[Chrebetfan80]

13 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

What does that mean exactly?

Town and media eat up new coaches, its felt that unless you have great success right away youre viewed as a failure and panned.  It's a hard job to take honestly because fans are so hungry for success (rightfully so) that the media and city wouldnt be patient enough with a first time head coach.   

Reich was advised it would be a bad move for his first HC position because of that. 

[bitonti]

4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

I never said I disliked him I just prefer Harbaugh 

 

And it’s more likely Harbaugh is available this offseason 

Pederson vs Harbaugh lol 

the Jets are going to hire someone no one has heard of, because he's cheap

just like the last 2 guys

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Pederson is overly pass reliant. In a stubborn way. His play calling script is often poorly sequenced. One play does not set up another.

He will baffle you in terms of how often he goes for 4th down. I get that the new analytics so that going for it is a new benefit. He relies on it to often and puts his team in bad spots.

He goes for 2 points too often. The math does not often add up.

Watch the very end of the OT game against the Bengals. His end game decisions were awful.

You know why Wentz regressed? Because Reich left. Since Reich has left, Philly has been receding.

 

Meh.  Your other points on Pederson are valid.  Especially the one about Reich, who was an enormous loss.  These in bold aren't.  Teams on average convert on 4th down > 50 % of the time.  If you're over 50 % across the league, it makes sense to go for it on 4th down a lot more often than teams do across the league.  

Meanwhile, it makes even more sense to go for 2 every single time, especially if you have a bad or mediocre kicker.  XP attempt % is of course much lower from 33 yards than the previous distance.  Kickers are missing about 5-6 % of their XP's since the 2015 rule change.  Whereas going for 2 is about a 50 % success rate.  The opportunity cost adds up.  Going for 2 every time will get you more points in the long run, even if your offense isn't particularly great.

His same aggressive style was a big reason they won a Super Bowl.  You don't go away from that just because you're in a down year.

[PS17]

16 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

 

Complaints and Grievances is my favorite comedy performance of all time. I was ten or eleven years old when I first watched it; my older brother had it on DVD. George has been my hero ever since. 

[Scott Dierking]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Meanwhile, it makes even more sense to go for 2 every single time, especially if you have a bad or mediocre kicker.  XP attempt % is of course much lower from 33 yards than the previous distance.  Kickers are missing about 5-6 % of their XP's since the 2015 rule change.  Whereas going for 2 is about a 50 % success rate.  The opportunity cost adds up.  Going for 2 every time will get you more points in the long run, even if your offense isn't particularly great.

 

You are down by 10, early in the 4th quarter.

You score a TD. kick the extra point or go for 2?

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

https://fansided.com/2020/12/02/chiefs-steelers-collision-course-afc-championship-game-gm-coach-combo-ready-go/

At some point, Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie is going to make a change. It just might not be the one you’d expect.

“If anyone goes, it’s most likely Howie Roseman,” a former general manager tells FanSided. “The issue here is Jeffrey Lurie knows that if he fires Doug Pederson, he gets hired immediately. Maybe the next day. Jeffrey’s lived that before [with Andy Reid’s hiring by the Chiefs].”

[Adoni Beast]

35 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Complaints and Grievances is my favorite comedy performance of all time. I was ten or eleven years old when I first watched it; my older brother had it on DVD. George has been my hero ever since. 

I like You’re All Diseased a bit more but they’re both the best of the best...my favorite for sure.

Interesting trivia, the ending to “Life Is Worth Losing” about the huge end of the world scenario of everyone dying was originally supposed to be the OPENING to “Complaints and Grievances,” which was also supposed to be called “I Like It When A lot of People Die.”

Due to 9/11, the FBI talked him into changing the special’s title, and talked him out of using the segment. If he used that to open C&G instead of the fart joke segment, it would have been his flawless Magnus Opus.

[Jetsfan80]

36 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

You are down by 10, early in the 4th quarter.

You score a TD. kick the extra point or go for 2?

Go for 2.  

Obviously you'll counter by saying "if you miss, you're down 4 and now need a TD".  I prefer to see it like this:  Convert (like my team preps for in practice every week), and now we just need a FG to take the lead.  Or, in a rare instance, a Safety to tie.  

Miss, and yes, we're down 4.  But there's still plenty of game left if its early in the 4th quarter.  The upside exceeds the downside in my eyes.  And meanwhile there's also a not so insignificant chance my Kicker would have missed the XP anyways.

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

https://fansided.com/2020/12/02/chiefs-steelers-collision-course-afc-championship-game-gm-coach-combo-ready-go/

At some point, Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie is going to make a change. It just might not be the one you’d expect.

“If anyone goes, it’s most likely Howie Roseman,” a former general manager tells FanSided. “The issue here is Jeffrey Lurie knows that if he fires Doug Pederson, he gets hired immediately. Maybe the next day. Jeffrey’s lived that before [with Andy Reid’s hiring by the Chiefs].”

 

The GM definitely deserves to be fired more than the HC.  But in that scenario they'd be looking at a forced marriage situation.  Hopefully, if I'm Lurie, I have a lot of quality GM candidates out there comfortable with Doug Pederson as the HC.

[Scott Dierking]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Go for 2.  

Obviously you'll counter by saying "if you miss, you're down 4 and now need a TD".  I prefer to see it like this:  Convert (like my team preps for in practice every week), and now we just need a FG to take the lead.  Or, in a rare instance, a Safety to tie.  

Miss, and yes, we're down 4.  But there's still plenty of game left if its early in the 4th quarter.  The upside exceeds the downside in my eyes.  And meanwhile there's also a not so insignificant chance my Kicker would have missed the XP anyways.

Here is the thing. You only have so many 2 point plays. The more you show them (as the Eagles do), the better the opposition can study them, and prepare for them

The Eagles are at 43% for the season. They have been far worse going for 2 as the season has gone on. They have left points on the field.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

Here is the thing. You only have so many 2 point plays. The more you show them (as the Eagles do), the better the opposition can study them, and prepare for them

The Eagles are at 43% for the season. They have been far worse going for 2 as the season has gone on. They have left points on the field.

So you respond to what your opponents are doing and get better at your craft.  The answer to an increasing failure rate at 2-point conversions isn't to stop doing them.  It's to get better at them.  Expand your playbook and creativity.  

The math is very clear on this:  Teams should be going for 2 every single time.  How they go about getting those 2 points is a separate issue.  

[Scott Dierking]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So you respond to what your opponents are doing and get better at your craft.  The answer to an increasing failure rate at 2-point conversions isn't to stop doing them.  It's to get better at them.  Expand your playbook and creativity.  

The math is very clear on this:  Teams should be going for 2 every single time.  How they go about getting those 2 points is a separate issue.  

So, what we can conclude then, Pederson is not very good at getting better at that craft.

HARD pass.

[Xtina]

20 hours ago, theron said:

Its interesting to see that a proven Coach like Perderson and a proven QB in Carson Wentz has such a trouble get the Offense rollin due poor O-Line Play .

"In 2020, Wentz's completion percentage is below 59, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 16-15, his record is 3-7-1 and his passer rating has fallen off a cliff, from 98.3 to 73.4."

Sounds Familar ?Im not saying Sam Darnold ever played as good as Wentz has but sure those numbers are telling something 

Wentz isn’t really proven though, is he? Other than he can constantly get hurt? 

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

So, what we can conclude then, Pederson is not very good at getting better at that craft.

HARD pass.

Fair take.  I don't know how much of that was the loss of Reich and how much of it is a downturn in talent, but he carries responsibility for a significant portion of that.  

Roseman definitely needs to go.  That much I know for sure.  If both go that would be understandable too.  But Pederson being fired and Roseman keeping his job would make no sense.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Xtina said:

Wentz isn’t really proven though, is he? Other than he can constantly get hurt? 

If you cut out his rookie year and this season, his TD:INT ratio in the middle 3 seasons (2017-19) was 81/21.  

Pretty damn impressive.  A QB putting up that kind of ratio over a 3-year period would be treated like a god here.

[Beerfish]

How quickly things change Roseman was the front office league darling just a year or two ago.  Part of the big Douglas attraction was that he was from the 'Roseman tree'

[Scott Dierking]

34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If you cut out his rookie year and this season, his TD:INT ratio in the middle 3 seasons (2017-19) was 81/21.  

Pretty damn impressive.  A QB putting up that kind of ratio over a 3-year period would be treated like a god here.

Read the other day, he has had one the steepest drop in passing rating in the history of the league over 3 prior years.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/carson-wentz-has-one-of-the-biggest-drop-offs-in-passer-rating-in-nfl-history-what-it-means-for-eagles-qb/

Per NFL Research, here are the six quarterbacks that had a passer rating decrease by 24 points from their passer rating over the previous three seasons:

1. Y.A. Tittle (1964) -- -42.2
2. Peyton Manning (2015) -- -39.9
3. Joe Theismann (1985) -- -32
4. Mark Rypien (1993) -- -26.3
5. Carson Wentz (2020) -- -24.9
6. Brett Favre (2010) -- -24.8

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Read the other day, he has had one the steepest drop in passing rating in the history of the league over 3 prior years.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/carson-wentz-has-one-of-the-biggest-drop-offs-in-passer-rating-in-nfl-history-what-it-means-for-eagles-qb/

Per NFL Research, here are the six quarterbacks that had a passer rating decrease by 24 points from their passer rating over the previous three seasons:

1. Y.A. Tittle (1964) -- -42.2
2. Peyton Manning (2015) -- -39.9
3. Joe Theismann (1985) -- -32
4. Mark Rypien (1993) -- -26.3
5. Carson Wentz (2020) -- -24.9
6. Brett Favre (2010) -- -24.8

 

Crazy.  And of that list, Wentz and Rypien are the only ones where the steep drop cannot be blamed on age.  Rypien did turn 31 in 1993, but he also only started 10 games that season.  So an injury might have been to blame?  He also still bounced around the league a bunch after that year.

Meanwhile, Tittle turned 38 in 1964.  Manning turned 39 in 2015, and was a broken down shell of himself.  Theismann turned 36 in 1985.  Favre turned 41 in 2010.  And for all 4 of those, it was their final seasons in the NFL.

Unless there's an unknown injury Wentz is dealing with, this is arguably the most difficult-to-explain drop in QB play in NFL history.  

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Crazy.  And of that list, Wentz and Rypien are the only ones where the steep drop cannot be blamed on age.  Rypien did turn 31 in 1993, but he also only started 10 games that season.  So an injury might have been to blame?  He also still bounced around the league a bunch after that year.

Meanwhile, Tittle turned 38 in 1964.  Manning turned 39 in 2015, and was a broken down shell of himself.  Theismann turned 36 in 1985.  Favre turned 41 in 2010.  And for all 4 of those, it was their final seasons in the NFL.

Unless there's an unknown injury Wentz is dealing with, this is arguably the most difficult-to-explain drop in QB play in NFL history.  

'85 was the year Theisman broke his leg.

[Scott Dierking]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Crazy.  And of that list, Wentz and Rypien are the only ones where the steep drop cannot be blamed on age.  Rypien did turn 31 in 1993, but he also only started 10 games that season.  So an injury might have been to blame?  He also still bounced around the league a bunch after that year.

Meanwhile, Tittle turned 38 in 1964.  Manning turned 39 in 2015, and was a broken down shell of himself.  Theismann turned 36 in 1985.  Favre turned 41 in 2010.  And for all 4 of those, it was their final seasons in the NFL.

Unless there's an unknown injury Wentz is dealing with, this is arguably the most difficult-to-explain drop in QB play in NFL history.  

On Wentz, he just does not seem able to emotionally handle failure. He is pressing. And the spiral just seems to get worse. he and Darnold are similar in some areas. Both make bad throws that rookie QBs should have drilled into to them not to make. They both seem to create their own mental funks that they have difficulty getting out of. 

Admittedly so, their teams have not helped them from the o-line and receiver positions.

[TuscanyTile2]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Meh.  Your other points on Pederson are valid.  Especially the one about Reich, who was an enormous loss.  These in bold aren't.  Teams on average convert on 4th down > 50 % of the time.  If you're over 50 % across the league, it makes sense to go for it on 4th down a lot more often than teams do across the league.  

Meanwhile, it makes even more sense to go for 2 every single time, especially if you have a bad or mediocre kicker.  XP attempt % is of course much lower from 33 yards than the previous distance.  Kickers are missing about 5-6 % of their XP's since the 2015 rule change.  Whereas going for 2 is about a 50 % success rate.  The opportunity cost adds up.  Going for 2 every time will get you more points in the long run, even if your offense isn't particularly great.

His same aggressive style was a big reason they won a Super Bowl.  You don't go away from that just because you're in a down year.

A few weeks ago he went for 2 in a very bizarre situation.  I remember commenting about it at the time.  IIRC, he was down 21-11 (he converted a 2 pointer to get to 11) and the Eagles scored a TD to make it 21-17.  Instead of kicking the XP to move to within 3, he went for 2 again and missed.  Say what you want about analytics, that was a horrendous decision.  Stuff like that would absolutely drive me crazy. 

Having said the above, I'd still be very happy if we hired him.  

[UntouchableCrew]

Hard pass. 

This guy is the next Mike McCarthy.

[Rangers9]

Sometimes a coach outstays his welcome with a team. Players get tired of hearing and seeing the same old and both parties need a change. Looks like an in your face kind of coach like a Joe Judge is starting to have a positive effect on his team but in a few years that could change and probably will. So I'd take a shot with Pederson. As for Gase most coaches wear out their welcome after several years but Gase seems to do it asap. 

[Scott Dierking]

21 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Sometimes a coach outstays his welcome with a team. Players get tired of hearing and seeing the same old and both parties need a change. Looks like an in your face kind of coach like a Joe Judge is starting to have a positive effect on his team but in a few years that could change and probably will. So I'd take a shot with Pederson. As for Gase most coaches wear out their welcome after several years but Gase seems to do it asap. 

This is Pederson's 5th year with the Eagles. That is pretty fast to lose a locker room.

He caught lightning in a bottle with the Foles victory

[TuscanyTile2]

37 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Hard pass. 

This guy is the next Mike McCarthy.

Mike McCarthy coached Aaron Rodgers.  Surely, you're not comparing Carson Wentz/"Big Dick" Nick Foles to that. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

A few weeks ago he went for 2 in a very bizarre situation.  I remember commenting about it at the time.  IIRC, he was down 21-11 (he converted a 2 pointer to get to 11) and the Eagles scored a TD to make it 21-17.  Instead of kicking the XP to move to within 3, he went for 2 again and missed.  Say what you want about analytics, that was a horrendous decision.  Stuff like that would absolutely drive me crazy. 

Having said the above, I'd still be very happy if we hired him.  

 

It's really not horrendous at all.  If NFL teams convert on 2-point conversions over 50 % of the time, then it only make sense to go for two every single time.  Even if they convert a little under 50 %, it still makes sense to always go for 2 because of the 5-6 % failure rate by kickers on XP's from 33 yards out.

Singling out individual instances where it didn't work out does nothing to advance that argument.  Results-based analysis has been proven to be a flawed way of thinking, especially when it comes to this subject.  

You're leaving points on the board if you send your kicker out every time.  Teams just don't do what Pederson does because coaches tend to worry about silly criticism like this.  Pederson won his Super Bowl over the Patriots in part by following the numbers and being ballsy, so he's going to continue to do so.  And it's the correct call.  

There are plenty of other, legitimate things for which to criticize Pederson.  This isn't one of them.

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Mike McCarthy coached Aaron Rodgers.  Surely, you're not comparing Carson Wentz/"Big Dick" Nick Foles to that. 

No, but I'm saying he's a bad coach propped up by others who's being exposed at the moment. Fans will look at the overall record and Super Bowl and think he's the guy, he's not.

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

It's really not horrendous at all.  If NFL teams convert on 2-point conversions over 50 % of the time, then it only make sense to go for two every single time.  Even if they convert a little under 50 %, it still makes sense to always go for 2 because of the 5-6 % failure rate by kickers on XP's from 33 yards out.

Singling out individual instances where it didn't work out does nothing to advance that argument.  Results-based analysis has been proven to be a flawed way of thinking, especially when it comes to this subject.  

You're leaving points on the board if you send your kicker out every time.  Teams just don't do what Pederson does because coaches tend to worry about silly criticism like this.  Pederson won his Super Bowl over the Patriots in part by following the numbers and being ballsy, so he's going to continue to do so.  And it's the correct call.  

There are plenty of other, legitimate things for which to criticize Pederson.  This isn't one of them.

Across the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons, teams converted two-point conversion attempts 49.4 percent of the time.

 

Close to a tie.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Across the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons, teams converted two-point conversion attempts 49.4 percent of the time.

 

Close to a tie.

 

Yep.  Factor in the 5-6 % of the time kickers miss XP's since the 2015 rule change, and a team who converts the league average in 2-point conversion % stands to gain points over the course of the season.  

[TuscanyTile2]

21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  Factor in the 5-6 % of the time kickers miss XP's since the 2015 rule change, and a team who converts the league average in 2-point conversion % stands to gain points over the course of the season.  

So if it were the very end of the game and the Eagles scored a TD to tie the game, should they go for 2 to try to win by 2 or kick the XP to try to win by 1?  

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

So if it were the very end of the game and the Eagles scored a TD to tie the game, should they go for 2 to try to win by 2 or kick the XP to try to win by 1?  

Since a made 1-point XP (94-95 % chance) is a more likely end result than a successful 2-point conversion (49-50 %) based on league averages, you just found one of the very few instances where it makes more sense to attempt the 33-yard XP than to go for 2.  

In nearly all other scenarios, it makes more sense to go for 2.  

[TuscanyTile2]

19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Since a made 1-point XP (94-95 % chance) is a more likely end result than a successful 2-point conversion (49-50 %) based on league averages, you just found one of the very few instances where it makes more sense to attempt the 33-yard XP than to go for 2.  

In nearly all other scenarios, it makes more sense to go for 2.  

I think when trailing 21-17, going for 1 also makes more sense (to try to go only trail by a FG: 21-18) and I'd be really PO'd if I were an Eagle fan at Pederson's decision to go for 2 there.

But don't get me wrong.  I think Pederson is a very good HC who I'd love for the Jets.  (and obviously he's a million times better than Gase).

[Joejet]

10 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Pederson is overly pass reliant. In a stubborn way. His play calling script is often poorly sequenced. One play does not set up another.

He will baffle you in terms of how often he goes for 4th down. I get that the new analytics so that going for it is a new benefit. He relies on it to often and puts his team in bad spots.

He goes for 2 points too often. The math does not often add up.

Watch the very end of the OT game against the Bengals. His end game decisions were awful.

You know why Wentz regressed? Because Reich left. Since Reich has left, Philly has been receding.

Sounds like you are pulling for us to keep Gase; he is run reliant, almost never goes for it on 4th down, and seldom goes for 2.

Chris and Woody, save your money, we have our guy!

[Philc1]

20 hours ago, bitonti said:

Pederson vs Harbaugh lol 

the Jets are going to hire someone no one has heard of, because he's cheap

just like the last 2 guys

 

Jamal Adams sucks 

[Philc1]

16 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

On Wentz, he just does not seem able to emotionally handle failure. He is pressing. And the spiral just seems to get worse. he and Darnold are similar in some areas. Both make bad throws that rookie QBs should have drilled into to them not to make. They both seem to create their own mental funks that they have difficulty getting out of. 

Admittedly so, their teams have not helped them from the o-line and receiver positions.

Wentz just hasn’t been the same since the torn ACL.  Maybe his throwing mechanics are off, maybe teams just had more tape of him and he and Pederson couldn’t expand the playbook I dunno