Trusting our GM's brilliant ability to evaluate draft talent

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. Becton (OL) - Looks like a Stud
2. Mims (WR) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
3. Davis (S) - Not so great so far, outclassed
3. Zuninga (DE) - Nonentity
4. Perime (RB) - Disappointing
4. Morgan (QB) - Nonentity
4. Clark (OL) - Nonentity
5. Hall (CB) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
6. Mann (P) - Pretty decent Punter so far.

This is an ok'ish Draft Class, not a good or great one.  In 5 picks in Rounds 3-4, we got......well, nothing really.  Davis and Perine have both been meh so far and the others may as well not exist.  Becton is an obvious stud, so great, and Mims looks good in the little we've seen him so far (also good).  Rest of the draft is a huge ? or a bunch of nobodies so far.

Lets not give JD too much credit. 

 

This is fair.  But its also the sad truth that the 2020 class is, already, the best Jets draft class since 2007, and its not particularly close. 

The next best in that span was probably Idzik's 2013 class:

• 1.9:  CB Dee Milliner (bust)
• 1.13:  DT Sheldon Richardson (1x Pro Bowler, 18.0 Sacks)
• 2.39:  QB Geno Smith (disappointment)
• 3.72:  G Brian Winters (7-year starter for 3 different regimes)
• 5.141:  OT Oday Aboushi (backup OL for last 7 seasons)
• 6.178:  OL William Campbell (nonentity)
• 7.215:  FB Tommy Bohanon (decent short yardage option for Jets and Jaguars until 2019)

[Paradis]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The only position where heavy stock should be placed on the 3-Cone time is at EDGE.  It's not useless for other positions but, yeah, it shouldn't be a measurable that eliminates a player from consideration or elevates them too highly depending on how they score.

Yea, i think you have to understand what you're looking for. These drills can help complete a picture, or answer a question - but you can't allow them to dictate your evaluation (within reason). 

If i was GM, I would do best to built my scouting department in silos. Keep them away as best i can from hive-mind communities/ popular narratives. 

[Kent Caparell]

19 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

 

 

19 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I think a few of these guys in positions that the draft has some real talent will drop due to opting out, maybe not drop far but will get draft lower than if they had played.  Guys like Ja.Marr chase.  Terence marshal has now also just opted out, mistake if you ask me.

The PAC-12 is a mess as most teams have played 3 games. My alma mater Arizona State is 0-1 w/two canceled games. Led by former Jet HC Herm Edwards. Blew the game as they mishandled an on side kick w/seconds on the clock. Evaluating talent in the PAC-12 will be interesting.

[T0mShane]

4 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Maybe it was that Metcalf had a body fat percentage that indicated he is clinically dead? I don't like to draft guys that are clinically dead, it's like numero uno on my list of criteria, clinically alive.

^has higher standards for players he’d draft than the many undead women he nails.

[Gastineau Lives]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

^has higher standards for players he’d draft than the many undead women he nails.

lmao Do you know the Gilbert Gottfried joke that would get me banned if I posted it here?

[T0mShane]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This is fair.  But its also the sad truth that the 2020 class is, already, the best Jets draft class since 2007, and its not particularly close. 

The next best in that span was probably Idzik's 2013 class:

• 1.9:  CB Dee Milliner (bust)
• 1.13:  DT Sheldon Richardson (1x Pro Bowler, 18.0 Sacks)
• 2.39:  QB Geno Smith (disappointment)
• 3.72:  G Brian Winters (7-year starter for 3 different regimes)
• 5.141:  OT Oday Aboushi (backup OL for last 7 seasons)
• 6.178:  OL William Campbell (nonentity)
• 7.215:  FB Tommy Bohanon (decent short yardage option for Jets and Jaguars until 2019)

Milliner won DPOTW once and Geno Smith will be in the league for ten years!

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Milliner won DPOTW once and Geno Smith will be in the league for ten years!

Hence why I didn't label Geno a "bust" like Sanchez or Darnold are.  For a 2nd rounder he's having a pretty solid career.  Kellen Clemens-like.

[addage]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. Becton (OL) - Looks like a Stud
2. Mims (WR) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
3. Davis (S) - Not so great so far, outclassed
3. Zuninga (DE) - Nonentity
4. Perime (RB) - Disappointing
4. Morgan (QB) - Nonentity
4. Clark (OL) - Nonentity
5. Hall (CB) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
6. Mann (P) - Pretty decent Punter so far.

This is an ok'ish Draft Class, not a good or great one.  In 5 picks in Rounds 3-4, we got......well, nothing really.  Davis and Perine have both been meh so far and the others may as well not exist.  Becton is an obvious stud, so great, and Mims looks good in the little we've seen him so far (also good).  Rest of the draft is a huge ? or a bunch of nobodies so far.

Lets not give JD too much credit. 

QW would have been rated "Disappointing" or worse using the above standard.  The only players seen positively are those who have instant impact.

Players who have not seen the field much are "nonentity".  Obviously, the more accurate answer is "unknown".  

It is generally agreed that a great many players take a significant leap between years one and two.  Again, QW.  So the assumption that what you see in year 1 is what you get is wrong.

The purpose of the negative slant is to undercut JD.  While no one would disagree with the "Lets not give JD too much credit.", overly negative evaluations pretending to Fairness aren't much help.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. Becton (OL) - Looks like a Stud
2. Mims (WR) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
3. Davis (S) - Not so great so far, outclassed
3. Zuninga (DE) - Nonentity
4. Perime (RB) - DisappointingFo
4. Morgan (QB) - Nonentity
4. Clark (OL) - Nonentity
5. Hall (CB) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
6. Mann (P) - Pretty decent Punter so far.

This is an ok'ish Draft Class, not a good or great one.  In 5 picks in Rounds 3-4, we got......well, nothing really.  Davis and Perine have both been meh so far and the others may as well not exist.  Becton is an obvious stud, so great, and Mims looks good in the little we've seen him so far (also good).  Rest of the draft is a huge ? or a bunch of nobodies so far.

Lets not give JD too much credit. 

I know Perrine hasnt really done anything but there's no way im calling him disappointing until he's free of the Gase and Gore show. I can see him being a part of a solid 1,2 punch next year. For a 4th rounder, i'd be all for that. 

[CTJetsFan]

2 minutes ago, addage said:

QW would have been rated "Disappointing" or worse using the above standard.  The only players seen positively are those who have instant impact.

Players who have not seen the field much are "nonentity".  Obviously, the more accurate answer is "unknown".  

It is generally agreed that a great many players take a significant leap between years one and two.  Again, QW.  So the assumption that what you see in year 1 is what you get is wrong.

The purpose of the negative slant is to undercut JD.  While no one would disagree with the "Lets not give JD too much credit.", overly negative evaluations pretending to Fairness aren't much help.

Spot on with first 3 points.

I would think I'd have to dig real hard (and I'm not about to do that) to find a team that had + contributions from all of their picks in year 1. Even 50-75% of picks with + production year 1  is probably the minority.

[Beerfish]

5 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Maybe it was that Metcalf had a body fat percentage that indicated he is clinically dead? I don't like to draft guys that are clinically dead, it's like numero uno on my list of criteria, clinically alive.

You would make a poor CFL general manager:

Canadian Football League was too strange not to include —the CFLin back-to-back years selected a player who had already passed away —and not as an honorary notion.

The first was in 1995 when the Ottawa Rough Riders selected Derrell Robertson, who had died in a car accident the year before,in the fourth round.

"I don't know how it happened," Ottawa coach Jim Gilstrap told the Ottawa Sunat the time. "The league didn't know until we told them. And we didn't know until a week ago when we couldn't find him."

It happened again in 1996, when the Montreal Alouettes selected James Eggink in the fifth round,but they later found out the defensive end died of cancer the previous year.

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

lmao Do you know the Gilbert Gottfried joke that would get me banned if I posted it here?

Throw it out there. Don’t sweat it. Me and @Maxman are tight. 

[zonajetfan]

10 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Hindsight is always 20/20 but there's a reason why despite being a combine warrior that D.K Metcalf still became the very last pick of the 2nd round; and that reasoning was because he put up pretty crappy NCAA WR numbers throughout his college career (every team passed on him and multiple times too). 

Would he look this freakish and this dominant without Russell Wilson? Who knows but all I know is he didn't even come close to dominating in college like this...

He also had neck injury concerns.

[Mogglez]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Did that article specifically say JJAW was a Roseman pick?  I get that it says that greater influence of one caused some of the bad picks, but can't that just as easily be Douglas over scouts/lesser execs as Roseman over Douglas?  The only pick I remember actual rumors about was Douglas liking Pumphrey who has bombed, but that is just a 4th and fairly typical.

If I remember correctly, yes the article specifically mentions that JJAW was one of the guys that the scouting half of the FO wanted no part of but Roseman loved because of his production at Stanford, something DK did not have.

[Warfish]

22 minutes ago, addage said:

QW would have been rated "Disappointing" or worse using the above standard.

Thru the end of his first season?  Yes, that's accurate.

Quote

The only players seen positively are those who have instant impact.

When evaluating them during their first year?  Yes, that's accurate.

Quote

Players who have not seen the field much are "nonentity".  Obviously, the more accurate answer is "unknown".

Semantics.

Quote

  It is generally agreed that a great many players take a significant leap between years one and two.  Again, QW.  So the assumption that what you see in year 1 is what you get is wrong.

Generally agreed by who?  And who is making that assumption? 

I'm grading the draft on what we know to-date.  Nothing more.

Quote

The purpose of the negative slant is to undercut JD.  While no one would disagree with the "Lets not give JD too much credit.", overly negative evaluations pretending to Fairness aren't much help.

Don't presume peoples motives.  In point of fact, I am a supporter of J.D. to-date and wrote quite positively about his draft class at the time.

[JustInFudge]

24 minutes ago, addage said:

QW would have been rated "Disappointing" or worse using the above standard.  The only players seen positively are those who have instant impact.

Players who have not seen the field much are "nonentity".  Obviously, the more accurate answer is "unknown".  

It is generally agreed that a great many players take a significant leap between years one and two.  Again, QW.  So the assumption that what you see in year 1 is what you get is wrong.

The purpose of the negative slant is to undercut JD.  While no one would disagree with the "Lets not give JD too much credit.", overly negative evaluations pretending to Fairness aren't much help.

Well said and the reality is; if Becton and Mims can stay healthy and on the trajectory they're on, the draft will be considered great.  Because you can already see in the very least you have back up level depth in Davis and Perrine.  Neither look to be starters but Perrine looks to be a solid complimentary back and Davis is playing a lot and while not great, looks like he is at least solid depth.  Zuniga fits the athletic profile and though he's never healthy, if he does materialize to even a situational pass rusher, well then we're looking at homerun.  Nobody has ever hit on every single player in a draft.  Doesnt happen.  If you can get 2 high end starters with a few complimentary players sprinkled in, by every measure of draft standards that would be considered a success.

 

[Warfish]

21 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I know Perrine hasnt really done anything but there's no way im calling him disappointing until he's free of the Gase and Gore show.

Fair.  His 3.7 YPC can be evaluated independent of the Gore/Gase situation, but his total production has of course been limited by Gase's preference for the 3.7 YPC he gets from Gore.

21 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I can see him being a part of a solid 1,2 punch next year. For a 4th rounder, i'd be all for that. 

With only 55 carries all season, I think it's difficult to project him as anything as yet.  We really need to see more, and more consistently.

Gase's decision to play Gore over Perine (and other similar old > young decisions) are one of my many criticisms I have for Gase.

[flgreen]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Thru the end of his first season?  Yes, that's accurate.

When evaluating them during their first year?  Yes, that's accurate.

Semantics.

Who is making that assumption?  We're grading the draft on what we know to-date.

Don't presume peoples motives.  In point of fact, I am a supporter of J.D. to-date.

 

ARK:  EXTINCTION-NEW GASBAG CREATURE.     

 

ARK: EXTINCTION - NEW GASBAGS CREATURE

[Jetster]

30 minutes ago, addage said:

QW would have been rated "Disappointing" or worse using the above standard.  The only players seen positively are those who have instant impact.

Players who have not seen the field much are "nonentity".  Obviously, the more accurate answer is "unknown".  

It is generally agreed that a great many players take a significant leap between years one and two.  Again, QW.  So the assumption that what you see in year 1 is what you get is wrong.

The purpose of the negative slant is to undercut JD.  While no one would disagree with the "Lets not give JD too much credit.", overly negative evaluations pretending to Fairness aren't much help.

It’s like judging Davis. He’s had some very close picks, tackles well, throws himself around (the hit & fumble near the goal line), and he’s covering a field against incredible athletes for 10-12 seconds sometimes! 
Every ex player doing games say this all the time, “you just can’t cover guys when the QB has that much time in the pocket”. 
We get ZERO pressure from the edges. Our pass rush outside of QW is laughable! 

[#27TheDominator]

20 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

If I remember correctly, yes the article specifically mentions that JJAW was one of the guys that the scouting half of the FO wanted no part of but Roseman loved because of his production at Stanford, something DK did not have.

I had heard similar production over measurables talk about Douglas.  Is the current thinking that was primarily Roseman? 

FWIW, the only thing I am sure if is that they seem to value the Senior Bowl highly.  Not sure if that is a Phil Savage influence or something else.  That and a strange predilection for players that failed in the Colts secondary.  Maybe that is Hogan.

[Warfish]

17 minutes ago, flgreen said:

ARK:  EXTINCTION-NEW GASBAG CREATURE.     

Instead of making insults, perhaps tell us where you disagree with the original Draft Review I made.  Might be more insightful, might not.  

[THE BARON]

12 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

DK Metcalf just feels like a JD pick at WR.
He’s 6’4 with 4.3 speed. JD values height and speed.
 

Whiteside is very slow.

it was not.  JD and his department got stiff-armed... 

[jgb]

11 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Hindsight is always 20/20 but there's a reason why despite being a combine warrior that D.K Metcalf still became the very last pick of the 2nd round; and that reasoning was because he put up pretty crappy NCAA WR numbers throughout his college career (every team passed on him and multiple times too). 

Would he look this freakish and this dominant without Russell Wilson? Who knows but all I know is he didn't even come close to dominating in college like this...

FQB's make their own weaponz, not the other way around.

5 hours ago, Ghost said:

So what? Even if JD did miss on him, he’s supposed to get it right every time? 
 

I’m aware that he’s going to draft players for us that are going to be garbage. But he already drafted 4 players that can potentially be here for a long time in Becton, Mims, Mann, and Davis. 
 

Everyone misses. Even the great ones. 

You apparently haven't seen some of the hot takes on here. This is the land of knee-jerks and purity tests.

[flgreen]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Instead of making insults, perhaps tell us where you disagree with the original Draft Review I made.  Might be more insightful, might not.  

I didn't make any insults.  As I recall you referred to yourself as a Gasbag.    LOL

[Maxman]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Throw it out there. Don’t sweat it. Me and @Maxman are tight. 

Don't encourage him. Angelo knows where the line is 99.99% of the time. That .01 though, oh my.  LOL!!!

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Is it though?

Never feed the troll. ?

[CanadaSteve]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. Becton (OL) - Looks like a Stud
2. Mims (WR) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
3. Davis (S) - Not so great so far, outclassed
3. Zuninga (DE) - Nonentity
4. Perime (RB) - Disappointing
4. Morgan (QB) - Nonentity
4. Clark (OL) - Nonentity
5. Hall (CB) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
6. Mann (P) - Pretty decent Punter so far.

This is an ok'ish Draft Class, not a good or great one.  In 5 picks in Rounds 3-4, we got......well, nothing really.  Davis and Perine have both been meh so far and the others may as well not exist.  Becton is an obvious stud, so great, and Mims looks good in the little we've seen him so far (also good).  Rest of the draft is a huge ? or a bunch of nobodies so far.

Lets not give JD too much credit. 

Okayish....Holy sh*t dude.  That is WAY too harsh for a first year assessment.  When you can have your first round pick showing he could be a perennial pro-bowler, and have two others 'flash' as you suggest, a decent player in the 6th, two players who haven't played yet, and another who you rank disappointing (which IMO is FAR too critical of Perrine), I would say that is a F'ing great draft for a draft that has played a little more than half a season.

This is, IMO, why Jets fans are so critical.  Expectations that are WAY too unrealistic for rookies half a season into their career.  Lets take a look in two more years with all of them to see.  

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

3 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

This is, IMO, why Jets fans are so critical.  Expectations that are WAY too unrealistic for rookies half a season into their career.

They're 0-11.

[Warfish]

45 minutes ago, flgreen said:

I didn't make any insults.  As I recall you referred to yourself as a Gasbag.    LOL

I'm sure you'll understand the different between self-reference and someone else calling you that.

Also, I really haven't been very gasbaggy in this thread, meh.

[Patriot Killa]

1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

it was not.  JD and his department got stiff-armed... 

What do you mean? You’re saying Metcalf is not a JD-like WR pick?

[Warfish]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. Becton (OL) - Looks like a Stud
2. Mims (WR) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
3. Davis (S) - Not so great so far, outclassed
3. Zuninga (DE) - Nonentity
4. Perime (RB) - Disappointing
4. Morgan (QB) - Nonentity
4. Clark (OL) - Nonentity
5. Hall (CB) - Flashed so far in the (brief) time he's been healthy
6. Mann (P) - Pretty decent Punter so far.

This is an ok'ish Draft Class, not a good or great one.  In 5 picks in Rounds 3-4, we got......well, nothing really.  Davis and Perine have both been meh so far and the others may as well not exist.  Becton is an obvious stud, so great, and Mims looks good in the little we've seen him so far (also good).  Rest of the draft is a huge ? or a bunch of nobodies so far.

Lets not give JD too much credit. 

Hey @Bungaman, I am legit curious as to what part of the above you disagreed with so strongly.  Would love to know.

[#27TheDominator]

14 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

DK Metcalf just feels like a JD pick at WR.
He’s 6’4 with 4.3 speed. JD values height and speed.
 

Whiteside is very slow.

Very?  Didn't he run like a 4.49 at his pro day? 

[Losmeister]

7 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

JEsus, how many times do you have to be told the same thing?

yo guys do know that Wank said that Mike Kafvka was gonna be an All Pro QB, right?

[Gastineau Lives]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

You would make a poor CFL general manager:

Canadian Football League was too strange not to include —the CFLin back-to-back years selected a player who had already passed away —and not as an honorary notion.

The first was in 1995 when the Ottawa Rough Riders selected Derrell Robertson, who had died in a car accident the year before,in the fourth round.

"I don't know how it happened," Ottawa coach Jim Gilstrap told the Ottawa Sunat the time. "The league didn't know until we told them. And we didn't know until a week ago when we couldn't find him."

It happened again in 1996, when the Montreal Alouettes selected James Eggink in the fifth round,but they later found out the defensive end died of cancer the previous year.

I remember this. The worst part is that they conducted interviews with both players.

[Beerfish]

Just now, Gastineau Lives said:

I remember this. The worst part is that they conducted interviews with both players.

Their are kind of quiet and a bit stiff running the route tree but he three cone is good.