Football outsiders calculates theres only a 32.8% chance the Jets go 0-16.

[Jetsbb]

If the Jaguars don't win another game it's unlikely the Jets get Trevor Lawrence.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-12-dvoa-ratings

 

Speaking of the Jets and 0-16, let's finish up the week with updated odds for all the extreme possibilities we've been tracking the last couple weeks. The Steelers odds here include a backup quarterback penalty for Baltimore in the simulation of Wednesday's game.

• Pittsburgh goes 16-0: 18.1% (up from 15.7%)
• New York Jets go 0-16: 32.8% (up from 20.9%)
• Entire NFC East has a losing record: 84.2% (up from 80.4%)
• Entire NFC East is 6-9-1 or worse: 41.5% (up from 36.5%)
• Entire NFC East is 5-10-1 or worse: 4.4% (up from 4.1%)

[Beerfish]

It is really tough to go 0-16, you have to be terrible which we are and be very very unlucky as well. 

 

[Thai Jet]

They underestimate Adam Gase. 

[Lith]

They also project that Jacksonville will win 1 of their last 5 leaving us with the #1 pick.

[RoadFan]

Apparently Football Outsiders is only using nerd metrics.  They haven't actually watched this team play. 

There has been what?  About 2 or 3 quarters of football the entire season where anybody thought the Jets MIGHT have a chance to win?  That notion is then quickly dispelled by a 4th and short punt in plus territory.  Or a turnover.  Or a dropped pass.  Or a missed tackle.  Or a mind-numbing penalty.

This team ain't winning a game.   

 

 

[Ohhthepain]

This is what I've been saying. Trevor Lawrence and the 1st pick are NOT a lock. Its absolutely imperative the Jags steal a game soon or we will f*ck ourselves. Being this bad and walking away with anything other than Trevor Lawrence would be an absolute nightmare.

[Spoot-Face]

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Would be the most Jets thing if they lost the #1 pick by sneaking out a win at the end of the season and Lawrence ends up being a HOF qb. 

[freestater]

[slats]

Which pollster did they use? 

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

The Jets will beat the Browns but Glennon probably has a win in him.

[HessStation]

[Columbia Jet Fan]

Its 33% they lose the next 5 games... or in other words they're about 80% dog in each game. Seems about right especially when you consider how much variance this season has with players missing games because of COVID. 

As others have pointed out for the Jets not to pick #1 the Jets would have to win one (a 2 out of 3 scenario), AND the Jags would have to avoid winning a game. Without knowing their percentages I'm guessing the Jets are likely a 65-85% favorite to get the #1 pick assuming the Jags are more likely to win another game due to them being a better team than the Jets + easier schedule. 

I for one will not be relaxed until Jax wins another game. 

[DepressedJetsFan23]

outsiders must not have seen the jets make Brett Rypien look like a decent NFL starting qb. I am sorry but this team has a case for being one of the worst of all time absolute dumpster fire

[Jetsbb]

24 minutes ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

outsiders must not have seen the jets make Brett Rypien look like a decent NFL starting qb. I am sorry but this team has a case for being one of the worst of all time absolute dumpster fire

I'm not as confident in our suckage. It's a completely different secondary with Bryce Hall, Jackson, Maulet, and Ashtyn Davis. I think they are playing more man vs zone coverage than they did earlier. The defense was actually good against the Dolphins while earlier in the year it was a disaster. With the 2 new WR and improved defense this team is much better than the dumpster at the beginning of they year which is unfortunate.

[Jetsbb]

48 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Its 33% they lose the next 5 games... or in other words they're about 80% dog in each game. Seems about right especially when you consider how much variance this season has with players missing games because of COVID. 

As others have pointed out for the Jets not to pick #1 the Jets would have to win one (a 2 out of 3 scenario), AND the Jags would have to avoid winning a game. Without knowing their percentages I'm guessing the Jets are likely a 65-85% favorite to get the #1 pick assuming the Jags are more likely to win another game due to them being a better team than the Jets + easier schedule. 

I for one will not be relaxed until Jax wins another game. 

According to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/games/

Raiders 25%

Seahawks 10%

Rams 12%

Browns 21%

Patriots 17%

[Jetsbb]

In contrast the Jaguars odds of winning a game according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/games/

Vikings 17%

Titans 17%

Ravens 13%

Bears 32%

Colts 15%

 

[Mark78]

3 hours ago, RoadFan said:

Apparently Football Outsiders is only using nerd metrics.  They haven't actually watched this team play. 

There has been what?  About 2 or 3 quarters of football the entire season where anybody thought the Jets MIGHT have a chance to win?  That notion is then quickly dispelled by a 4th and short punt in plus territory.  Or a turnover.  Or a dropped pass.  Or a missed tackle.  Or a mind-numbing penalty.

This team ain't winning a game.   

 

 

We can’t score a fu@$ing TD.  Please tell me how you win a game if you cannot move the ball.  A$$holes

[Defense Wins Championships]

I don't understand their math equation on this one (and Math was my 3rd favorite subject in school outside of gym/P.E and writing).

If we're 0-11 @ .000%; how the freak do they determine and calculate the odds that we have a 32.8% chance of going 1-4 from here on out? 

Because 0-11 @ .000% completely says otherwise...

[bla bla bla]

4 hours ago, slats said:

Which pollster did they use? 

I demand a recount!

[MARTIN]

5 hours ago, Ohhthepain said:

This is what I've been saying. Trevor Lawrence and the 1st pick are NOT a lock. Its absolutely imperative the Jags steal a game soon or we will f*ck ourselves. Being this bad and walking away with anything other than Trevor Lawrence would be an absolute nightmare.

This isn't being state enough. I can't stand all this being taken for granted... by posters and podcast hosts that just keep insinuating that its a lock. It isn't. Anyone with true jets fandom should know better.

 

[Jetsbb]

9 minutes ago, MARTIN said:

This isn't being state enough. I can't stand all this being taken for granted... by posters and podcast hosts that just keep insinuating that its a lock. It isn't. Anyone with true jets fandom should know better.

 

Its hanging by a thread and can fall down at an instant. Odds are about a coin flip in my opinion.

[Jet Nut]

If its only a 33% chance he Jets lose all remaining 5 games, what's the odds the Jaguars, playing better football lose their remaining 5?

 

[Beerfish]

I still find it remarkable that we have the record we do with the turnover ratio we have which is even, 13 takeaways and 13 giveaways.

 

[carlito1171]

Football Outsiders clearly failed to account for Gase calling the Stretch run to Gore for 60% of the game and the defense getting abused routinely 

[DepressedJetsFan23]

14 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

I'm not as confident in our suckage. It's a completely different secondary with Bryce Hall, Jackson, Maulet, and Ashtyn Davis. I think they are playing more man vs zone coverage than they did earlier. The defense was actually good against the Dolphins while earlier in the year it was a disaster. With the 2 new WR and improved defense this team is much better than the dumpster at the beginning of they year which is unfortunate.

They should not have cut Pierre desir than lol

[Jetsfan80]

14 hours ago, Mark78 said:

We can’t score a fu@$ing TD.  Please tell me how you win a game if you cannot move the ball.  A$$holes

They are probably projecting that Darnold will have another minor injury that costs him a week or 2, because he's a soft b*tch.

Flacco could absolutely get us a surprise win.  Darnold, no.  

[Jetsfan80]

11 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I still find it remarkable that we have the record we do with the turnover ratio we have which is even, 13 takeaways and 13 giveaways.

Yep.  The defense hasn't been great but it's been fairly acceptable, especially recently with some of the young players like QW and Bryce Hall starting to really shine. 

Meanwhile, the Gase-Darnold offense is an abomination.  Not because of tons of turnovers but rather due to complete ineptitude and tons of 3-and-outs.  

[Gangrene]

The offense under Darnold continues to be bad, our no-name defense is playing better.

A win is unlikely but "any given Sunday". It's the NFL, stuff happens...don't jump off the ledge of your first floor apartment window. 

I was surprised how low the likely winning percentages of the Jags remaining games are. I watched the last Jags game, they are fighters...a salty competitive bunch.

The good news is that it gives us something to watch as the season winds down. If we had three wins, I am multi tasking while watching the Jets.

As it is this damn Jets, Kotite-rerun, disaster is fascinating.

 

[RoadFan]

16 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

In contrast the Jaguars odds of winning a game according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/games/

Vikings 17%

Titans 17%

Ravens 13%

Bears 32%

Colts 15%

 

Jqcksonville could beat the Vikings,  Bears or Colts.

The Jag run the ball very well.  James Robinson.  Colts looks like a mismatch on paper, but that is less relevant for divisional games.

[playtowinthegame]

Jets vs Raiders - 90% chance it's a LOSS

Jets at Seahawks - 100% chance it's a LOSS

Jets at Rams - 100% chance it's a LOSS

Jets vs Cleveland - 95% chance it's a LOSS (Browns feast on bad teams)

Jets at Patriots - 100% chance it's a LOSS

- Bill Belichick will have a shot to squeeze in the 7th seed in the AFC because the rest of their schedule is like a cakewalk compared to the Indianapolis Colts. Here is a look at the Patriots and Colts remaining schedules, and what will be on the line in the final game of the season.

Colts remaining schedule: 

at Texans (Loss, 7-5)

at Raiders (Loss, 7-6)

vs Texans (Win, 8-6)

at Steelers (Loss, 8-7)

vs Jacksonville (Win, 9-7)

Patriots remaining schedule:

at Chargers (Win, 6-6)

at Rams (Win, 7-6) Now tied with Colts

at Miami (Win, 8-6)

vs Buffalo (Loss, 8-7)

vs Jets (Win, 9-7)

 

[Jetsbb]

4 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Jets vs Raiders - 90% chance it's a LOSS

Jets at Seahawks - 100% chance it's a LOSS

Jets at Rams - 100% chance it's a LOSS

Jets vs Cleveland - 95% chance it's a LOSS (Browns feast on bad teams)

Jets at Patriots - 100% chance it's a LOSS

- Bill Belichick will have a shot to squeeze in the 7th seed in the AFC because the rest of their schedule is like a cakewalk compared to the Indianapolis Colts. Here is a look at the Patriots and Colts remaining schedules, and what will be on the line in the final game of the season.

Colts remaining schedule: 

at Texans (Loss, 7-5)

at Raiders (Loss, 7-6)

vs Texans (Win, 8-6)

at Steelers (Loss, 8-7)

vs Jacksonville (Win, 9-7)

Patriots remaining schedule:

at Chargers (Win, 6-6)

at Rams (Win, 7-6) Now tied with Colts

at Miami (Win, 8-6)

vs Buffalo (Loss, 8-7)

vs Jets (Win, 9-7)

 

Can you give the link to that projected website? More likely the Patriots beat the Bills than at the Rams.

[playtowinthegame]

1 minute ago, Jetsbb said:

Can you give the link to that projected website? More likely the Patriots beat the Bills than at the Rams.

2020 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

[Wonderboy]

On 12/2/2020 at 6:24 PM, slats said:

Which pollster did they use? 

Elephant.com

[Wonderboy]

20 hours ago, MARTIN said:

This isn't being state enough. I can't stand all this being taken for granted... by posters and podcast hosts that just keep insinuating that its a lock. It isn't. Anyone with true jets fandom should know better.