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Mel Kiper: Jets should trade #2 pick and keep Darnold


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1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

It's because of the positional value. 

The Cardinals got a 2nd and 5th for Rosen - who they thought sucked. 

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if we couldn't get better than a 3rd or 4th for Sam. 

there was only 1 season of bad tape on Rosen...

there are 3 with Sam

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42 minutes ago, hamat711 said:

You actually have it backwards. Most of the successful Qbs taken this decade were taken late or by playoff teams.

Russ - Third Round

Dak - Fourth Round

Josh Allen - Playoff team traded up for him

Mahomes - Playoff team traded up for him

Watson - Playoff team traded up for him

Lamar Jackson - Last pick of the first round

Carr - Second Round

Kirk - Third Round

Jimmy G -Second Round

 

Goff, Tannehill and maybe Kyler are the only exceptions. The rookies and second other second year players are too early to call.

So you think we have a better chance of taking a great QB later in draft and should keep drafting linemen and safeties early???    I think if Lawrence if there you have to take him.

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18 hours ago, varjet said:

Mel Kiper believes that high draft picks play well because they are high draft picks, and that lots of draft picks solve all of a teams problems.

It appears to be that one or more great players can make the different for a team, rather than a lot of draft picks.  

But regardless of who gets picked , they are always on Kiper's best 9000 players list . 

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2 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

So you think we have a better chance of taking a great QB later in draft and should keep drafting linemen and safeties early???    I think if Lawrence if there you have to take him.

No, I think Lawrence is the right pick, but tanking is never the answer. The organization and foundation are the most important part to any young QBs development.

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4 hours ago, y2k8 said:

If they think that Lawrence is this generational talent that they simply cannot pass up, pick him.

But if you are telling me Fields is also, I am not buying it. 

We need to build a good team period. We can address QB later if Sam really is terrible.  Pick up the option and see what happens. Maybe they like a QB in the late first or second round and have that guy compete w Darnold next year.

I just don't see a reason to make another rush to failure. Picking Fields at #2 seems like a waste at this point.

What is missing in Fields game as compared to Lawrence , and don't tell me because Ohio St QB's are never good because that argument is very flawed. 

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2 hours ago, kmnj said:

a second round pick for a guy that sucks? we have lots of guys that suck can they all be turned into second round picks

 

Gm's and HC's have large ego's, they believe they can spin straw into gold. Some are more than willing to take that chance than others. They see a kid drafted #3 and they see the Jets terrible roster , they think they can can refurbish him. 

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25 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

What is missing in Fields game as compared to Lawrence , and don't tell me because Ohio St QB's are never good because that argument is very flawed. 

Lawrence has more experience and has won more than Fields, but I see flaws in both of their games.

How much better are Lawrence and Fields compared to Goff and Wentz? How do you know they are going to be any better, if as good?

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1 minute ago, y2k8 said:

Lawrence has more experience and has won more than Fields, but I see flaws in both of their games.

How much better are Lawrence and Fields compared to Goff and Wentz? How do you know they are going to be any better, if as good?

Bottom line we don't know. Both Lawrence and Fields play for teams with much more talent than what Goff and Wentz had in college. While they are both very good prospects I wouldn't put either in a can't miss category. This is why I'd have no problem taking Fields if we end up with pick #2 .My preference is Fields but would be ok with either. 

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2 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

He could have outdrafted by a LOT any GM we have had in the last 10 years....     Douglas excluded.

Then he should quit his job and go work for Bleacher Report.  "See Mel. It's in your best interest.  I know because I have an opinion."

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Kiper is reasonable; if you can get a boat load of picks you do it; can always get a good qb; if you don't you then you pick the qb; a great team with a good team can win it all (see Giants vs. Pats),  a great QB on a bad team cannot win. Also, if the 1 QB quits, gets hurt, or doesn't respond, you have missed out on 5-6 blue chip players. If you trade the pick and 1 or 2 players don't pan out you still have a significantly better team.

Such for Sam, Tank for Trevor, I wonder what the next one will be.

Of course fans can root for whatever they want; we are the customers, but thinking about these paths can be fun.

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3 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

So you think we have a better chance of taking a great QB later in draft and should keep drafting linemen and safeties early???    I think if Lawrence if there you have to take him.

Can someone please post the list of failed 2nd, 3rd and 4th round QB picks over the past decade? I wonder how long that would be.

 

#tank4trevor

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22 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

Kiper is reasonable; if you can get a boat load of picks you do it; can always get a good qb; if you don't you then you pick the qb;n.

 

lol what?

At any given time, only about 12 people on the planet can play the position well.  But sure, yeah, let's just pluck a QB from the QB tree any time we want.  FFS.  

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20 hours ago, KINGDIRK said:

Can someone please post the list of failed 2nd, 3rd and 4th round QB picks over the past decade? I wonder how long that would be.

 

#tank4trevor

 

Let's go with 2009-2018 as our window and leave the 2019-20 QB's alone.  Here's the list from that 10-year period.  I count 29 QB's:

  • Pat White
  • Stephen McGee
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Colt McCoy (decent QB2, but a failure for our standards)
  • Mike Kafka
  • Ryan Mallett
  • Brock Osweiler
  • Geno Smith
  • Mike Glennon
  • Matt Barkley
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Wilson
  • Landry Jones
  • Logan Thomas
  • Tom Savage
  • Garrett Grayson
  • Sean Mannion
  • Bryce Petty
  • Christian Hackenberg
  • Jacoby Brissett
  • Cody Kessler
  • Connor Cook
  • Cardale Jones
  • DeShone Kizer
  • Davis Webb
  • C.J. Beathard
  • Joshua Dobbs
  • Mason Rudolph
  • Kyle Lauletta

 

And these are the 2-4 round QB's in that span (8) that succeeded at being multi-year starters:

  • Andy Dalton
  • Colin Kaepernick
  • Russell Wilson
  • Nick Foles
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Derek Carr
  • Jimmy Garoppolo
  • Dak Prescott

 

Kaepernick, Foles and Garoppolo are obviously in a bit of a "grey area" in the latter group, but given their respective postseason successes, I'll call them success stories given where they were taken. 

If you think they belong in the "failure pile" I wouldn't really take issue with that.  That would increase the failure list to 32 and the successful list down to just 5 QB's.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

lol what?

At any given time, only about 12 people on the planet can play the position well.  But sure, yeah, let's just pluck a QB from the QB tree any time we want.  FFS.  

Yep - worked out great for the colts - until Luck kept getting hurt and retired early as the colts couldn't protect him; while the dumbass Giants won SBs with Eli. Moholmes was the #10 pick. Every year we beg of a QB, wentz, goeff, marriotta, all high picks that hasn't brought success or SB to teams.

While QB is the most important position by far, it is a team sport and a QB cannot win without a complete team. We can pick QB and another #1 this year, or we could pick a top player like WR (love the kid from Florida) and still have #1 plus an extra 2, and who knows. We could rebuild in 2 years instead of 3 or 4; but yes, lets tank for Trevor and then get this kid killed and in 4 years we can fail for F''' - there is a big picture and opportunity costs for all decisions. Every time there has been a blockbuster deal, especially for QB, the team that traded the pick was better off in the short and long run. See the whole picture - FFS.

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On 12/8/2020 at 7:52 PM, NYDreamer said:

If we have the #1 pick we take Lawrence.

If we get the #2 pick I'm trading it and building around Darnold with the Offensive tackle from Oregon or the Wr from LSU.

i agree. Parcells didnt draft a QB with his #1 pick with us. he signed Vinny. and we surrounded  Sanchez with a really good team and he didnt have to do much, might just be the way to go if we cant get Trevor. 

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10 hours ago, doitny said:

i agree. Parcells didnt draft a QB with his #1 pick with us. he signed Vinny. and we surrounded  Sanchez with a really good team and he didnt have to do much, might just be the way to go if we cant get Trevor. 

Parcells surrounded Vinny? Actually, it was more like he inserted Vinny. 

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19 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

lol what?

At any given time, only about 12 people on the planet can play the position well.  But sure, yeah, let's just pluck a QB from the QB tree any time we want.  FFS.  

It's like some people live in the Upside Down. It really feels like arguing with the neighborhood wino about the color of the sky sometimes.

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17 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

Yep - worked out great for the colts - until Luck kept getting hurt and retired early as the colts couldn't protect him; Yep - worked out great for the colts - until Luck kept getting hurt and retired early as the colts couldn't protect him; while the dumbass Giants won SBs with Eli. Moholmes was the #10 pick. Every year we beg of a QB, wentz, goeff, marriotta, all high picks that hasn't brought success or SB to teams.

Luck won 33 games his first 3 seasons, including 2 playoff wins.  It worked out well for them.

Kyler Murray is doing quite well for Arizona.  Prior to his unfortunate injury, Joe Burrow was doing great for Cincy.  Jared Goff and Cam Newton both got to Super Bowls.  Oh and there was also this guy called Peyton Manning.  

Wentz and Mariota were both the 2nd-picked QB's at # 2 with better QB's going # 1 both of those times, so that doesn't exactly help your argument.  The Jets will be picking # 1, not # 2.  

QB's are hard to find.  When you need one, you should go ahead and draft one.  If it doesn't work out, keep drafting one until you find one.  Again, that worked out well for the Cardinals.  One year after failing with Rosen they succeeded with Kyler Murray.  It's far better to draft a QB and miss as opposed to passing on a QB who ends up going on to greatness.  The Jets have done that several times in franchise history, passing on Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson/Pat Mahomes and opting not to draft a QB at all instead.

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10 hours ago, doitny said:

i agree. Parcells didnt draft a QB with his #1 pick with us. he signed Vinny. and we surrounded  Sanchez with a really good team and he didnt have to do much, might just be the way to go if we cant get Trevor. 

So passing on Peyton was a good thing, but opting for Vinny Testaverde and Mark Sanchez were good strategies?  lmao.

I like Vinny.  But you can't possibly juxtapose him with passing on a young Peyton Manning and make a compelling argument that it was the right move.  

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On 12/11/2020 at 11:05 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

So passing on Peyton was a good thing, but opting for Vinny Testaverde and Mark Sanchez were good strategies?  lmao.

I like Vinny.  But you can't possibly juxtapose him with passing on a young Peyton Manning and make a compelling argument that it was the right move.  

problem is not everyone is Peyton. we hope Trevor is.

i had agreed with the post that if we get the #1 then we pick Trevor. but if we dont then dont force it and pick the next best QB if you dont like him just because we need one. 

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2 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Am I the only one who thinks Darnold with weapons is a pretty decent QB? Top 5? No? But a starter in this league that could make a playoff run with? Yes. 

I think Darnold can and will be a legitimate FQB, but just not with the Jets.  His time here is done.  

What they’ve done to him should be unacceptable.  

Honestly, if I were him I wouldn’t play another down for this team.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I think Darnold can and will be a legitimate FQB, but just not with the Jets.  His time here is done.  

What they’ve done to him should be unacceptable.  

Honestly, if I were him I wouldn’t play another down for this team.

If Darnold becomes Andy Dalton at this point it will be a miraculous turnaround.

On 12/9/2020 at 9:35 PM, Losmeister said:

there was only 1 season of bad tape on Rosen...

there are 3 with Sam

And Rosen came with several years of cheap team control. Darnold is a one year rental 

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