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Football Outsiders updates odds of Jets going 0-16 to 57.7%


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This is obviously not taking into account Bellicheck throwing the game which would decrease it to 0% or still trying but starting Stidham.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-14-dvoa-ratings

"I've got one more week-to-week graph to show you this week, and this one belongs to the worst team in the league, the New York Jets. The Jets had their worst DVOA game of the season on Sunday against Seattle, and they now have better than even odds to go 0-16, yet they still haven't crossed the -40% barrier for the season. Right now, the Jets wouldn't even finish as one of the 25 worst teams in DVOA history. How is this possible, you may ask?

There are probably a couple of games here where the Jets come out higher than you expect. First, their 31-13 Week 2 loss to San Francisco. The Jets' defense had a pretty good game in that one, keeping the San Francisco offense to a 38% success rate which was the second-lowest of that week. They gave up a lot of yards on two somewhat fluky long runs of 55 and 80 yards. Next, the Jets end up with a significant positive rating for the Week 9 game where they lost to the Patriots on a last-second field goal. That one was more about offense. The Jets offense in that game had a 61% success rate, the best in the league that week! Their average play outgained the average New England play, 7.3 to 5.7 yards.

We'll have to see where the Jets go from here. There's a significant difference in offensive DVOA between games started by Sam Darnold (-31.0%) and those started by Joe Flacco (-2.2%), so it's likely that the Jets of the next three weeks will be worse than the average of the Jets' performances in the first 13 games. We now give the Jets a 57.7% chance of going 0-16, and there's a good argument that this is too low. The simulator sees their best chance of a win as Week 16 against Cleveland, for two reasons. First, our simulator is still accounting for home-field advantage although it has been very small or even nonexistent over the last two seasons. Second, our numbers still don't like the Browns (21st in overall DVOA, 18th in weighted DVOA) although they did move into the offensive top 10 this week. But as I've noted in the past, there's a reason to believe the Browns are better than their full-season DVOA because their offense is dragged down specifically by two really horrible blowout losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The first one, in particular, is down to 40% strength in the weighted DVOA formula, but it's still in there. The Browns' offense is also artificially dragged down by two high-wind games, but their defense is helped by those games so it probably balances out."

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The Patriots are 4-2 in their last 6 games.  Their two losses were a 7 point defeat to a slightly resurgent Texans team and a significant loss last week to the Rams, a team I consider one of the 3 best in the NFC.  Solid wins over the Ravens and Cardinals (who are both playoff bubble teams) took place in that stretch as well.

457820755_ScreenShot2020-12-15at8_19_19PM.png.669ed7f32f46cdd3b2998d935ebf2e2e.png

 

Belichick destroyed Justin Herbert and the Chargers (45-0), and he's still the coach responsible for Sam Darnold's single worst game as a Pro.

Halloween Disney GIF by filmeditor

 

The only way the Patriots lose to the Jets is if they intentionally try.

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7 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

We'll have to see where the Jets go from here. There's a significant difference in offensive DVOA between games started by Sam Darnold (-31.0%) and those started by Joe Flacco (-2.2%), so it's likely that the Jets of the next three weeks will be worse than the average of the Jets' performances in the first 13 games. 

Let anyone still defending Darnold read this. My god. 

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8 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

This is obviously not taking into account Bellicheck throwing the game which would decrease it to 0% or still trying but starting Stidham.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-14-dvoa-ratings

"I've got one more week-to-week graph to show you this week, and this one belongs to the worst team in the league, the New York Jets. The Jets had their worst DVOA game of the season on Sunday against Seattle, and they now have better than even odds to go 0-16, yet they still haven't crossed the -40% barrier for the season. Right now, the Jets wouldn't even finish as one of the 25 worst teams in DVOA history. How is this possible, you may ask?

There are probably a couple of games here where the Jets come out higher than you expect. First, their 31-13 Week 2 loss to San Francisco. The Jets' defense had a pretty good game in that one, keeping the San Francisco offense to a 38% success rate which was the second-lowest of that week. They gave up a lot of yards on two somewhat fluky long runs of 55 and 80 yards. Next, the Jets end up with a significant positive rating for the Week 9 game where they lost to the Patriots on a last-second field goal. That one was more about offense. The Jets offense in that game had a 61% success rate, the best in the league that week! Their average play outgained the average New England play, 7.3 to 5.7 yards.

We'll have to see where the Jets go from here. There's a significant difference in offensive DVOA between games started by Sam Darnold (-31.0%) and those started by Joe Flacco (-2.2%), so it's likely that the Jets of the next three weeks will be worse than the average of the Jets' performances in the first 13 games. We now give the Jets a 57.7% chance of going 0-16, and there's a good argument that this is too low. The simulator sees their best chance of a win as Week 16 against Cleveland, for two reasons. First, our simulator is still accounting for home-field advantage although it has been very small or even nonexistent over the last two seasons. Second, our numbers still don't like the Browns (21st in overall DVOA, 18th in weighted DVOA) although they did move into the offensive top 10 this week. But as I've noted in the past, there's a reason to believe the Browns are better than their full-season DVOA because their offense is dragged down specifically by two really horrible blowout losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The first one, in particular, is down to 40% strength in the weighted DVOA formula, but it's still in there. The Browns' offense is also artificially dragged down by two high-wind games, but their defense is helped by those games so it probably balances out."

A 6 time winning SB coach is afraid of a JR QB from Clemson, who he won’t even probably be coaching against in the near future.... right 👍

 

you guys have to stop with these bush league takes its cringe as hell 🤣🤦‍♂️

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8 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Let anyone still defending Darnold read this. My god. 

  

16 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

We'll have to see where the Jets go from here. There's a significant difference in offensive DVOA between games started by Sam Darnold (-31.0%) and those started by Joe Flacco (-2.2%), 

 

@genot @QB1 @Lizard King @Gastineau Lives @Biggs @ausman @WowOhWow @heymangold  @bealeb319  @Lupz27  @kmnj  @NYJ1  @BornJetsFan1983

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The Patriots are 4-2 in their last 6 games.  Their two losses were a 7 point defeat to a slightly resurgent Texans team and a significant loss last week to the Rams, a team I consider one of the 3 best in the NFC.  Solid wins over the Ravens and Cardinals (who are both playoff bubble teams) took place in that stretch as well.

457820755_ScreenShot2020-12-15at8_19_19PM.png.669ed7f32f46cdd3b2998d935ebf2e2e.png

 

Belichick destroyed Justin Herbert and the Chargers (45-0), and he's still the coach responsible for Sam Darnold's single worst game as a Pro.

Halloween Disney GIF by filmeditor

 

The only way the Patriots lose to the Jets is if they intentionally try.

Exactly. Well said. 

Sam is 0-2 All-Time against Belichick and has been outscored by the score of 71-3; he's been absolutely awful X2. 

All N.E has to do is jump out to a 7-0 lead against Sam come week 17 and the game is over before it ever began. 

 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I would love to see you personally come out of college, get into any job surrounded by seasoned world class professionals and have your boss tell the world two years later that he did nothing over that time period to foster your development 

he may not be Peyton Manning. But this organization knows quarterback development about as well as @Irish Jetknows Mandarin Chinese and it’s a sin. 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sexy

LOL you're relentless, though. I admit he's terrible, I don't want him on the team anymore but that's not good enough for you.

You remind me of a Louis CK bit about seeing a barrel of duck vaginas in Chinatownand how much do you have to dominate a species that you have a barrel of their vaginas.

Well, 80 mine is one vagina that you will not be getting in the barrel, no sir, not this vagina.  (this is also a metaphor btw, I know you're not good with those)

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