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Joe Douglas bounty of third and fourth round picks weren't impressive so why trade down?


Jetsbb
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Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

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If Douglas can't hit on his mid round picks at least on occasion, then he isn't the right guy at GM anyways.

I don't support trading down from 2 but the 2020 draft class, however it turns out, isn't a great argument against trading down going forward.  I'm down to trade down from the Seattle pick.  

Bryce Hall looks like a very good pick so far, for whatever its worth.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

I think it would be worthwhile to actually assess how many third and fourth round players remain in the NFL, much less become starters. 

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It’s too early to judge the 2020 draft. We haven’t even seen two of those guys.

But if the Jets trade down from 2, u have to believe they’ll be getting an extra 1st or 2nd, not mid round picks. He’ll get skewered if all he got were extra mid round picks for moving down from 2.

The Jets moved up from 6th to 3rd for 3 second rounders for example. 

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9 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

I missed the memo where every draft pick has to be an immediate hit. We don't know which picks will end up being good or bad. Nobody knows what Becton and Mims end up being. Who knows who will get banged for PEDs or threaten to nut in a cop's wife's eye. 

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6 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

He should have started James Morgan the final month. That four week face plant would have netted us Lawrence. Which would have meant that trade down and pick was enormous. But alas....

Who is he? JD doesn't dictate who plays. Adam Gase has complete control over who plays.

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21 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

The odds of getting an impact player in the 3rd and 4 th rounds is slim.  Right now they have two players, Davis and Zuniga , playing significant minutes.  As far as I know, clark is the only disappointment.  Morgan is the 3rd string QBs so it’s not like he’d be in a game in the best times.  Plus you simply can’t judge a draft class for two or three seasons.  If they’re bad or off the team then feel free to condemn Douglas.

as for trading down, unless there’s a bona fide all pro at two then I’d think about it.  and if it’s a good offer and there are players the team needs then I’d go for it.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Remain in the NFL....for how long?  

If you look at, say, the 2017 draft class (its been over 3 years so we can "assess it" properly by now), the following guys from rounds 3-4 are arguably effective starters/starter quality in the NFL in 2020:

  • DT Larry Ogunjobi
  • CB Ahkello Witherspoon
  • RB Alvin Kamara
  • WR Cooper Kupp
  • C/G Pat Elflein
  • G Dan Feeney
  • WR Chris Godwin
  • RB Kareem Hunt
  • DB Shaquill Griffin
  • S John Johnson
  • CB Jourdan Lewis
  • WR Kenny Golladay
  • CB Rasul Douglas
  • TE Jonnu Smith
  • RB James Conner
  • S Eddie Jackson
  • S Rayshawn Jenkins
  • RB Tarik Cohen
  • ILB Ben Gedeon
  • S Montae Nicholson
  • OLB Samson Ebukam
  • DE Deatrich Wise
  • RB Jamaal Williams
  • RB Marlon Mack

 

That's 24 players out of 75 picks in that range, or 32 %. 

And considering that draft class was pretty loaded, that's probably on the high end compared to a more "average" class.

 

Meanwhile, the following players from the 3rd-4th round of that class are out of the league entirely, from what I can tell:

  • DE Daeshon Hall
  • WR ArDarius Stewart
  • OLB Tim Williams
  • WR Carlos Henderson
  • OT Antonio Garcia
  • QB Davis Webb
  • WR Chad Williams
  • CB Brendan Langley
  • DT Nazir Jones
  • WR Amara Darboh
  • G Dorian Johnson
  • RB Joe WilliamsFiar
  • G Nico Siragusa
  • CB Howard Wilson
  • TE Michael Roberts
  • RB Donnell Pumphrey
  • QB Joshua Dobbs
  • G Sean Harlow
  • WR Jehu Chesson

 

So 19 out of 75 are out of the league, or 25 %.

Thanks for the breakdown. I was too lazy to do it myself. So in a good year, as you said, one can expect 1 out of 3 3rd and 4th rounders to find success in the NFL. We already have Elflien on our roster, so I don't know how to credit that. Not to mention that if JD hits on two of the four picks, he's batting 100% based on the rate of one pick per round. He simply doubled his odds. Davis and Perine have started as rookies. Clark is a project but by no means a bust. Morgan is an unknown. I'd say that's pretty good drafting, frankly.

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1 hour ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Thanks for the breakdown. I was too lazy to do it myself. So in a good year, as you said, one can expect 1 out of 3 3rd and 4th rounders to find success in the NFL. We already have Elflien on our roster, so I don't know how to credit that. Not to mention that if JD hits on two of the four picks, he's batting 100% based on the rate of one pick per round. He simply doubled his odds. Davis and Perine have started as rookies. Clark is a project but by no means a bust. Morgan is an unknown. I'd say that's pretty good drafting, frankly.

 

Elflein is right on the borderline.  He had a very good rookie year and looked OK here, with a horrible couple years sandwiched in the middle.  

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If Douglas can't hit on his mid round picks at least on occasion, then he isn't the right guy at GM anyways.

I don't support trading down from 2 but the 2020 draft class, however it turns out, isn't a great argument against trading down going forward.  I'm down to trade down from the Seattle pick.  

Bryce Hall looks like a very good pick so far, for whatever its worth.

Who are you taking at 2 

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6 hours ago, HawaiisOnlyJetsFan said:

No training camp, no preseason. You expect 3rd -5th round rookies to be playing at an all pro level out of the gate (with our genius coaching staff no less)?

Pro bowl?  why do people go WAY overboard when making a point? 

zuniga has been active like one or two games and his big stat is a penalty.  Morgan and Clark have not been active at all.  Perine played a bit and looked blah.

You expectt guys to suit up and at least be active on a team as bad as the jets.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Zach Wilson or Fields.  I'll have to wait for the pre-draft process to play out over the next few months to determine which one I prefer.  Gun to my head, right now, I'm taking Wilson.

What about Lance? I'm pretty down on Fields based on his recent play, but am intrigued by Wilson and Lance. 

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5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

What about Lance? I'm pretty down on Fields based on his recent play, but am intrigued by Wilson and Lance. 

Lance is a non-starter for me thanks to lack of college experience.  We've been down this inexperienced prospect road before with Sanchez and Darnold (who I readily admit were far less talented prospects).  A college player with the # of starts he's had (I believe 13 or 14?) is, historically, a terrible bet.  Wilson, for comparison, has 29 collegiate starts to date, and counting.  Lance may well be the next Kyler Murray but I'd rather let another franchise try to find that out.

If we DID go with Lance, I certainly can't justify that pick at # 2 overall.

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21 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

Based on ONE draft? He's proven NOTHING. What a dumb thread 

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5 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

How does your opinion of Douglas change if the Jets don't stick at 2 and draft a quarterback?

If he is able to trade down and still land one of the top QB's, that would be the only other result I'd be OK with.  The Jets need to come away from this draft with a QB with their first selection, whatever pick slot it is, or I will be pretty livid with Douglas.  Kicking the can down the road at QB is really not an option.  

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21 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

 

Too early to tell how these picks will work out. His fifth and sixth look very solid.

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19 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Pro bowl?  why do people go WAY overboard when making a point? 

zuniga has been active like one or two games and his big stat is a penalty.  Morgan and Clark have not been active at all.  Perine played a bit and looked blah.

You expectt guys to suit up and at least be active on a team as bad as the jets.

So 2 of 7 picks from the 3rd-5th round haven't suited up and contributed. 3 are starting, 5 have "suited up and are/were active" what exactly is your point? 

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On 12/21/2020 at 6:23 PM, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

Historically, if JD gets 1 starter out of those 5 picks he'd be right on target to what the actual percentage is in every draft. Any pick beyond the 1st round has about a 30% chance of becoming a starter. 

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On 12/21/2020 at 6:23 PM, Jetsbb said:

Usually you get only two picks in the third and fourth rounds we had five. Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, Lamichael Perine, James Morgan and Cameron Clark. The popular opinion, now that we have the 2nd pick, is to trade down. Douglas has proven he can nail the premium pick but falls far short in the upper mid rounds. I wouldn't want to trade down and then get this level of talent back in return.

Jesus....are you serious!  

THEY ARE FOURTH ROUND PICKS!  They don't contribute like a premium pick.

I swear to god....only Jets fans think we should have pro-bowl starters from every pick.

 

 

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5 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Jesus....are you serious!  

THEY ARE FOURTH ROUND PICKS!  They don't contribute like a premium pick.

I swear to god....only Jets fans think we should have pro-bowl starters from every pick.

 

 

I mean in defense of Jets fans(Not sure I am anymore) our premium picks tend to suck even when we draft non premium positions early. Just pull up the last 20 years of first and second rounders yourself so I don't gotta argue with you. 

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On 12/21/2020 at 4:25 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

If Douglas can't hit on his mid round picks at least on occasion, then he isn't the right guy at GM anyways.

I don't support trading down from 2 but the 2020 draft class, however it turns out, isn't a great argument against trading down going forward.  I'm down to trade down from the Seattle pick.  

Bryce Hall looks like a very good pick so far, for whatever its worth.

 

It's interesting that the Jets have now found injury value twice at CB in the Draft.  Austin and Hall were both 2nd Round type talents that fell to later in the Draft due to significant injury.  The Jets were savvy (and lucky) enough to grab those guys and both look to be, at a minimum, keeper in the rotation at CB.  I actually think Hall has the upside of a solid starting CB2 and Austin might be a CB3 type.

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