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Sam Monson from PFF is 100 percent right here


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34 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Half Measure

Did you know?; Jameis Winston is the only QB in the history of the NFL to start his career with 4k yards and 20+ TD's in back to back seasons?   Did you know, 8 players have thrown for 5k and 30 TD's in NFL history.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Big Ben, Dan Marino.  Ironically, the other player, Matt Stafford, who you suggested who is 33 and Jameis is 27.  Plus, he's the only player in NFL history to eat W's.

 

 

 

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"Kedon Slovis" is a Jets QB name if I ever saw one. Can't wait to hear the "Blowvis" chants during Jets games in 2022.

There is no guarantee they will be in position next year to draft a top QB. Also among the top projected 2022 QBs is USCs Kedon Slovis. 

Sam Monson is literally the worst "analyst" out there bar none. He's a fool and a smug prick.  We should move on from Sam. Not necessarily with #2.

Just now, JiF said:

Did you know?; Jameis Winston is the only QB in the history of the NFL to start his career with 4k yards and 20+ TD's in back to back seasons?   Did you know, 8 players have thrown for 5k and 30 TD's in NFL history.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Big Ben, Dan Marino.  Ironically, the other player, Matt Stafford, who you suggested who is 33 and Jameis is 27.  Plus, he's the only player in NFL history to eat W's.

 

 

 

Educate Yourself Shooting Star GIF

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Did you know?; Jameis Winston is the only QB in the history of the NFL to start his career with 4k yards and 20+ TD's in back to back seasons?   Did you know, 8 players have thrown for 5k and 30 TD's in NFL history.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Big Ben, Dan Marino.  Ironically, the other player, Matt Stafford, who you suggested who is 33 and Jameis is 27.  Plus, he's the only player in NFL history to eat W's.

 

 

 

You’re getting into Tebow-level fanaticism with the Jameis Winston stuff mate (if this is end of season shtick, my bad). 

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2 hours ago, Sammybighead said:

If you take the QB just for the sake of taking the qb, you run the risk of pushing the rebuild another year if he busts. However, if you take someone like Sewell, who plays a position much easier to project forward and is widely believed to have all pro potential, you can set up sam or the next QB (whoever it is) for success.

And if Sam is not the answer which he probably is not , then next year we're not drafting top 5 , probably somewhere around mid pack .

Now you need to part with assets to grab an "elite" QB when you could have simply signed one this year with the #2 pick and Fields. 

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Sam Darnold QB rating: 

Last 67.3 . 2nd worse is 72.8

Sam Darnold total QBR:

Last: 36.6 . 2nd worse is 43.6


Not only is Darnold statistically the worst QB in football, he has a few points of separation between him and the next worst guy. Will taking an elite RT at 2 and getting a new coach fix this? Or will we be back looking for a QB in a worse 2022 class next year?

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Jet fans had become emotionally invested in the idea of drafting Trevor Lawrence. Sam has been a sympathetic character (by most fans anyway) with the poor weapons and surrounding cast he has had to work with. That all changed on Sunday. Every pick he throws or bad game he has he will become more and more vilified by fans. He needs to go for his own sake. .....BTW I think JD's honeymoon ended on Sunday as well. 

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43 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

You’re getting into Tebow-level fanaticism with the Jameis Winston stuff mate (if this is end of season shtick, my bad). 

Desperate times calls for desperate measures.

 

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

Could you imagine if Fields or Wilson is in that category and we passed on them to build around Sam Darnold?  lololololololol - that's actually the most likely scenario with the Jets.  Any DT's worth #2 overall?

It also is worth mentioning, the first QB taken has rarely ended the best QB of the class. Kyler Murrary, Winston, Luck.  Otherwise, literally every single draft of the last the decade the best Qb wasnt the first taken and in some cases, it wasnt even the 2nd QB taken.  And as you mentioned, TL is far from perfect and far from generational.

 

 

 

What have Murray, Luck or for God sakes freaking Winston accomplished in this league?

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5 minutes ago, peebag said:

What have Murray, Luck or for God sakes freaking Winston accomplished in this league?

Nothing they're just the best in the class.

The last #1 overall pick to win a SB was Peyton Manning.  Before that?  Eli Manning.  Before that?  Troy Aikman

The odds are, Trevor Lawrence never wins one either.

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3 hours ago, oatmeal said:

Thank you for further proving my point Albert Einstein, that list is very short now can you name the ones to completely flame out for comparison? Because I promise you the list is way higher smfh 

 "Literally"...

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With all do respect to PFF, they’re not scouts. Their grading does not consider situation, it does not factor in coaching, etc. More often then not they’re acurate, but there are countless times where they grade a player lowly because they fail to consider these factors, only for that player to turn into a stud. 

All being said, the argument for sticking with Darnold is less about him and more about team building. What does Douglas think will put the Jets in the best position for sustainable success: (1) drafting a QB prospect at #2 and trading Darnold for a premium 2nd round pick; (2) taking the best player available at #2 and standing pat with Sam; or (3) trading the #2 pick for what is likely to be 4 premium 1st & 2nd round picks over the next 2 years. 

What the Jets have going for them is that many throughout the league still believe Darnold, 23, has the tools and temperament to be a franchise QB. This is not some conspiracy theory; smart people agree that he still has the ability to be a top-level QB. So if your staff truly believes Darnold has been a victim of his environment and that they can get the best out of him, you weigh your grade of the available QBs and compare them to your evaluation of Darnold. If Douglas believes a prospect is a can’t miss QB who is overwhelmingly better, than the decision is easy. If you feel the #2 draftable QB has a similar grade to a first round QB every year—or lower than what a #2 pick should warrant—then trade down and stockpile picks. 
 

There’s always the strong chance that a new coach is brought in to “fix” Darnold and it doesn’t work out. This happens all the time. If you have a veteran plan B who actually plays well that’s great (see Tannehill-Mariota). There’s also the chance that neither play well which is not ideal (see Trubisky-Foles), but having future assets helps minimize that issue. There’s also the scenario where there is no veteran stopgap and a team is forced to use FA or the draft to replace the young QB the following year (see Winston).  

Another option is to do what Buffalo did: the new administration wanted to win and to be competitive in order to establish a culture. They spent their first year building the roster and accumulating draft capital in the following draft (two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks), presumably to put them in a position to land a QB in 2018.  They ultimately went 9-7 in 2017 and made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. People figured they eliminated themselves from landing a QB, but sure enough, they were able to trade up using their assets to draft the 3rd QB available. Everyone said that QB would bust, meanwhile he’s developed into the best QB from his class. Why? Because the Bills established a great coaching staff who demanded a winning culture and prioritized building around the QB. 
 

I think the Jets should take a page from both the Bills and the Titans. They have the luxury of having a QB who still very clearly is talented and by no means is so far gone that he can’t be salvaged. They have the means to add a veteran QB who the league still holds in high regard (think Garoppolo). They also have tons of draft capital over the next 2 drafts which they can use to build up the roster and to add to that, they can probably acquire a third 1st round pick in 2022 by moving out of #2. 

If Darnold does not make strides, they still have hope in the form of (a) a veteran QB revitalizing his career in NY; or (b) entering 2022 armed with 3 1st round picks in what appears to be a solid QB class. You’ll have already gotten a head start building around the QB in 2021 and may even have a veteran stop-gap to accompany with a high draft pick. Maybe you end up having a bad season in 2021 and you have a high pick already (see Miami) or maybe you perform well and need to trade up (see Buffalo). Either way, you’re equipped with the resources to make a move if you have to. 
 

But the best part about all of this... there’s still a realistic chance that your 23 year old former #3 overall pick can salvage his career with a new coaching staff and improved roster. And if he were to defy the odds and clearly show that he’s capable of being a franchise QB in 2021 (see Josh Allen, 2020), you would have 3 1st round picks to spread around the roster in 2022. If Darnold had a good season but did not definitely establish himself as a franchise QB there are more options: bring him back under the franchise tag and draft a QB in rounds 1-2; tag him, draft a QB, and try to trade Darnold; or just let Darnold walk and look to pair a draft pick with the veteran.
 

Regardless which way you look at it, I think the Jets are not in a doom-or-gloom predicament; it just feels worse for some because Lawrence was right there. I’m far more worried about the HC than I am the QB. If we find the right coach, I think the QB will work itself out via the several options above. If the Jets hire the wrong coach, we should brace for another 3 years of tragedy, followed by another rebuild. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Nothing they're just the best in the class.

The last #1 overall pick to win a SB was Peyton Manning.  Before that?  Eli Manning.  Before that?  Troy Aikman

The odds are, Trevor Lawrence never wins one either.

I think that says more about Jacksonville than Trevor

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3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

That is COMPLETELY false..... If that is what Jetsfan80 posted, then his research is majorly false.   

Except it's not. Off the top of my head, I want to say the number was like 45% or something along those lines of the best QB in the draft being the first one selected. 

Now, you and @oatmeal will cry - "Well if it's less than 50% that means that more QB's taken after first were better!!!!" but what you fail to account for is to divide the other 55% out to the other draft positions. If you did it would end up something like:

First QB taken - 45%

Second QB taken - 25%

Third QB - 10%

4th QB - 5%

5th QB - 4%

etc. etc. 

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5 hours ago, oatmeal said:

Okay let’s turn this into a tag match and reference your buddy’s work and tag him in and I lack critical thinking? Amazing logic 👍

 

and again my point is simple, if you name the top QBs in the nfl right now how many we’re the first pick in that draft? 
 

Why is this so hard to understand?????????????

 

 

But you're pitting the QB's taken # 1 overall against literally hundreds of other pick slots that a QB can go.  It's not exactly a fair fight in terms of sample size.

Even having said that, the # 1 pick still has Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, who have both looked like they could end up being top 10 QB's.  I imagine Burrow will come back strong from his injury. 

Meanwhile, Cam Newton took a team to a 15-1 record, the Super Bowl, and took home the MVP award in the process.  Andrew Luck won 33 games and 3 playoff games in his first 3 seasons in the league, which included a 40-TD season.  Matthew Stafford has been a top 10-12 QB pretty much his entire career.  Goff and Winston mostly suck, but the former also went to a Super Bowl (with help from the zebras), and the latter has at least been highly entertaining and had a 5,000+ yard season with 33 TDs.

A # 1 pick QB is no lock but its a safer bet than people would like to argue.  

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Nothing they're just the best in the class.

The last #1 overall pick to win a SB was Peyton Manning.  Before that?  Eli Manning.  Before that?  Troy Aikman

The odds are, Trevor Lawrence never wins one either.

Sure, but this isn't saying anything.  

The odds of any QB picked anywhere in the draft winning the SB are very low. In general, the odds are that any given QB chosen at random from any given draft will not win the SB. There have only been 54 Super Bowl winning QBs. It's a selective group. 

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Sure, but this isn't saying anything.  

The odds of any QB picked anywhere in the draft winning the SB are very low. In general, the odds that any given QB chosen at random from any given draft will not win the SB. There have only been 54 Super Bowl winning QBs. It's a selective group. 

And 2 of those SB winning QB's in this century were Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.  Another was Joe Flacco.  No one would argue those guys would have been worth taking # 1 overall.

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8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sure, but this isn't saying anything.  

The odds of any QB picked anywhere in the draft winning the SB are very low. In general, the odds are that any given QB chosen at random from any given draft will not win the SB. There have only been 54 Super Bowl winning QBs. It's a selective group. 

I agree, it was just more about trying to make the point that while QB is the most important position in all of sports, Football is still the ultimate team sport.  Trevor Lawrence alone was not going to fix the Jets nor will he fix the Jags.  Big steps in the right direction?  Nobody truly knows, even as safe as it looks but even if he is the real deal, they still have a ton of work to do.  They basically need 2 of everything and the Jets dont exactly have the best track record of doing it correctly.  

As it stands, I'd try to trade back and accumulate more picks.  Maybe take a shot at Trask or Jones in the 2nd (assuming they're there) to compete with Sam.  Or if possible, take a shot at a trade...maybe see if you can trade for a Stafford/Ryan.  Or, hire Pete Carmichael, bring Jameis with him, see if he's coached the turnovers out of him while you build a team for the heir apparent.  If we're going to have a turnover prone doofus, lets at least have one who can sling it for 5k and 30 TD's.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Sam Monson is literally the worst "analyst" out there bar none. He's a fool and a smug prick. 

We should move on from Sam. Not necessarily with #2.

You are previously on record as hating your fellow Irishman but you agree 100% with him? 

Has Sam, the smug fool, stolen your dream job?

What a complete bollox that Smug Mug Monson must be.

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