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The 2nd QB picked seems to be the BETTER one


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So, there has been a lot of discussion about where QB's are drafted and where the success rate lies.  I can't remember who it was, but one of the posters pointed out that QB's drafted out of the first round have a MUCH higher bust rate (we all know the Tom Brady/Drew Brees enigma's).  

HOWEVER...There seems to be some discussions about the QB's drafted within the first round, and the team-altering directional change that we will not be able to draft Trevor Lawrence.  If you look at the history though, it shows that most of the QB's drafted first in the draft are not the ones who work out the best.

CASES IN POINT:

2000 - Chad Pennington 1st QB taken (1st round -18th pick)

We all know who went 5 rounds later that was better. 

2001 - Michael Vick 1st QB taken (1st round - 1st pick

BEST QB: Drew Brees (2nd round)

2002 - David Carr 1st QB taken (1st round - 1st pick)

Joey Harrington and Joey Ramsey also taken in first

BEST QB: Josh McCown (3rd round)

2003 - Carson Palmer: 1st taken, best of the bunch

2004 - Eli Manning 1st QB taken (1-1)

BEST QB: Ben Roethlisberger (I would also add Philip Rivers as a better QB)

2005 - Alex Smith 1st QB taken (1-1)

BEST QB: Aaron Rodgers 

2006 - Vince Young 1st QB taken (1-3)

BEST QB: Jay Cutler (that isn't saying much)

2007 - JaMarcus Russell 1st QB taken (1-1) Possibly the best...not saying much

2008 - Matt Ryan 1st QB taken (1-3)

Possibly the best taken, although Joe Flacco has the ring

2009 - Matthew Stafford 1st QB taken (1-1) and best QB that year

2010 - Sam Bradfprd 1st QB talem (1-1)

He might be the best, but Colt McCoy is still playing....

2011 - Cam Newton 1st QB taken (1-1)

Best QB: Andy Dalton...You might disagree, but he has better stats across the board. BUT...he didn't take his team to a Super Bowl. 

2012 - Andrew Luck 1st QB taken (1-1) Best QB that year.

2013 - EJ Manuel 1st QB taken (1-16)

Best QB: Geno Smith that is NOT saying much

2014 - Blake Bortles 1st QB taken (1-3)

Best QB: Maybe not best, but better...Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

2015 - Jameis Winston 1st QB taken (1-1)  Probably the best, but not saying much

2016 - Jared Goff 1st QB taken (1-1)

Best QB: Carson Wentz 

2017 - Mitch Trubinsky 1st QB taken (1-2)

Best QB: Patrick Mahomes

2018 - Baker Mayfield 1st QB taken (1-1)

Best QB: Up for debate, but I think Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are better

2019 - Kyle Murray 1st QB taken (1-1)

Best QB - We will give it to Murray for now.

2020 - Joe Burrow 1st QB taken (101)

Best QB: Too early to say, but Justin Herbet is looking mighty good.

Out of the past 20 drafts, a better QB has been found after the first one 60 percent of the time.  Out of the 8 times where the first was the best, 4 of them did nothing career-wise.

So....GLIMMER of hope for the XMAS season everyone!  The percentages these past two decades show that the better QB in the draft is statistically the better one than the first one drafted!

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4 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Trevor Lawrence is the highest rated QB prospect since Elway/Manning (so don't even think about comparing him to, "others"). 

So therefore all of the other 1st QBs selected are absolutely meaningless once discussing Trevor Lawrence. 

Again...there is NO guarantee dude that Trevor Lawrence will be Andrew Luck, John Elway, or Peyton Manning.  NONE.

Some of these guys kill it in College, and it doesn't translate.  If I had to place a bet, I would lean toward him being the best this year.  But you never know.

 

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Wow. Chad being the first QB picked at 18 overall. What a different time. Could you EVER imagine a draft today where the first QB isnt picked until 18?! It would NEVER happen. No matter how bad the class is, whoever is the best of the bad class would be talked up nonstop all offseason and some desperate team would take him early. I can't even imagine the "best" QB dropping past the top 10. 

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Reality V Jets fans.

Face it boys we are going to blow a high pick on a Jag. Average NFL play will look like Joe Montana compared tote total sh*t sandwich we had the eat for almost a decade.

Hard to every get enthusiastic about anything this team does going forward.

Feeling very meh about anything they do. Marvin mediocre Lewis is the kind guy we will hire.

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I've looked at this some, but not necessarily strictly draft position.  I will eventually do a deep dive into team records leading into the arrival of some of the best QBS of the last two decades or so.

My instinct is there will be a strong correlation between the QBs who have turned into the "Good QBs" and going to a team who wasn't in shambles before they got there.  Which obviously connects to draft position.

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17 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've looked at this some, but not necessarily strictly draft position.  I will eventually do a deep dive into team records leading into the arrival of some of the best QBS of the last two decades or so.

My instinct is there will be a strong correlation between the QBs who have turned into the "Good QBs" and going to a team who wasn't in shambles before they got there.  Which obviously connects to draft position.

Your instincts will be proven correct. 

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1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Your instincts will be proven correct. 

Which could also be a reason to build a team first, THEN go and get your QB.  If JD keeps adding more and more future picks, you could see him trading a bunch of them to move up in a draft and go get a QB.

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2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've looked at this some, but not necessarily strictly draft position.  I will eventually do a deep dive into team records leading into the arrival of some of the best QBS of the last two decades or so.

My instinct is there will be a strong correlation between the QBs who have turned into the "Good QBs" and going to a team who wasn't in shambles before they got there.  Which obviously connects to draft position.

That would be cool.  I thought about that, showing draft placement and record of team, but I was lazy and just did this!

 

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2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've looked at this some, but not necessarily strictly draft position.  I will eventually do a deep dive into team records leading into the arrival of some of the best QBS of the last two decades or so.

My instinct is there will be a strong correlation between the QBs who have turned into the "Good QBs" and going to a team who wasn't in shambles before they got there.  Which obviously connects to draft position.

Double check me on these but from memory:

Mahomes was a trade-up by a good Chiefs team.  He also go to sit for a year.

Lamar went to a pretty good Ravens team.

Watson went to a (IIRC) pretty decent Texans team.

Josh Allen went to a Buffalo team that IIRC wasn't very good but they were starting to make better decisions.

Andrew Luck went to a bad team and immediately made them better.

Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder so I'm not sure if you're including that.  IIRC they weren't particularly good.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted by a good Packers team and sat for like 3 years behind Favre.

 

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51 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Which could also be a reason to build a team first, THEN go and get your QB.  If JD keeps adding more and more future picks, you could see him trading a bunch of them to move up in a draft and go get a QB.

If we somehow do end up in position to draft Trevor, should we trade down and build a team first?

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2 hours ago, Butterfield said:

The qbs that went later and did better went to a better team.  If the Jets pick a qb 2nd, he will still be going to a bad team.  

Seriously? You think Jets are bad? No one has a better record over the last 7 days. We win football games. That’s what we do here. 

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2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Hi.

Sam Darnold was the 2nd QB taken.

The self-delusional threads on here the past week have been straight 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Solid post ape.  Also is there a “Gase” factor included?  

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9 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

Wow. Chad being the first QB picked at 18 overall. What a different time. Could you EVER imagine a draft today where the first QB isnt picked until 18?! It would NEVER happen. No matter how bad the class is, whoever is the best of the bad class would be talked up nonstop all offseason and some desperate team would take him early. I can't even imagine the "best" QB dropping past the top 10. 

EJ Manuel/Geno Smith draft. 

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I can't agree with CanadaSteve's assessment that "the 2nd QB picked seems to be better than the first QB selected". 

He was pretty much cherry picking and he also didn't lay out a real #1 vs. #2 draft selection @ QB. 

Sometimes these QB draft classes just actually stink and it's better much better to simply draft an RB or O-Lineman; but it's pretty rare that the #2 QB selected has a better NFL career than the #1 QB selected (see below). 

Dating back to 1983 (two years before I was born). 

1983:

John Elway = #1 QB selected. 

Todd Blackledge = #2 QB selected. 

1984:

Boomer Esiason = #1 QB selected. 

Jeff Hostetler = #2 QB selected. 

1985:

Randall Cunningham = #1 QB selected. 

Frank Reich = #2 QB selected. 

1986:

Jim Everett = #1 QB selected. 

Chuck Long = #2 QB selected. 

1987:

Vinny Testaverde = #1 QB selected. 

Kelly Stouffer = #2 QB selected. 

1988:

Tom Tupa = #1 QB selected (3rd round). 

Chris Chandler = #2 QB selected (3rd Rd).

1989

Troy Aikman = #1 QB selected. 

Mike Elkins = #2 QB selected. 

1990

Jeff George = #1 QB selected. 

Andre Ware = #2 QB selected. 

1991:

Dan McGwire = #1 QB selected. 

Todd Marinovich = #2 QB selected. 

1992

David Klingler = #1 QB selected. 

Tommy Maddox = #2 QB selected. 

1993

Drew Bledsoe = #1 QB selected. 

Rick Mirer = #2 QB selected. 

1994:

Heath Shuler = #1 QB selected. 

Trent Dilfer = #2 QB selected. 

1995:

Steve McNair = #1 QB selected. 

Kerry Collins = #2 QB selected. 

1996

Tony Banks = #1 QB selected. 

Bobby Hoying = #2 QB selected. 

1997

Jim Druckenmiller = #1 QB selected. 

Jake Plummer = #2 QB selected. 

1998:

Peyton Manning = #1 QB selected. 

Ryan Leaf = #2 QB selected. 

1999:

Tim Couch = #1 QB selected.

Donovan McNabb = #2 QB selected. 

2000

Chad Pennington = #1 QB selected. 

Giovanni Carmazzi = #2 QB selected. 

2001:

Mike Vick = #1 QB selected. 

Drew Brees = #2 QB selected. 

2002

David Carr = #1 QB selected. 

Joey Harrington = #2 QB selected. 

2003:

Carson Palmer = #1 QB selected. 

Byron Leftwich = #2 QB selected. 

2004:

Eli Manning = #1 QB selected. 

Philip Rivers = #2 QB selected. 

2005:

Alex Smith = #1 QB selected. 

Aaron Rodgers = #2 QB selected. 

2006:

Vince Young = #1 QB selected. 

Matt Leinart = #2 QB selected. 

2007:

JaMarcus Russell = #1 QB selected. 

Brady Quinn = #2 QB selected. 

2008:

Matt Ryan = #1 QB selected. 

Joe Flacco = #2 QB selected..

2009

Matthew Stafford = #1 QB selected. 

Mark Sanchez = #2 QB selected. 

2010:

Sam Bradford = #1 QB selected. 

Tim Tebow = #2 QB selected. 

2011

Cam Newton = #1 QB selected

Jake Locker = #2 QB selected. 

2012:

Andrew Luck = #1 QB selected. 

RG3 = #2 QB selected. 

2013:

EJ Manuel = #1 QB selected.

Geno Smith = #2 QB selected. 

2014:

Blake Bortles = #1 QB selected. 

Johnny Manziel = #2 QB selected. 

2015:

Jameis Winston = #1 QB selected. 

Marcus Mariota = #2 QB selected. 

2016

Jared Goff = #1 QB selected. 

Carson Wentz = #2 QB selected. 

2017:

Mitchell Trubisky = #1 QB selected.

Patrick Mahomes = #2 QB selected. 

2018:

Baker Mayfield = #1 QB selected. 

Sam Darnold = #2 QB selected. 

2019:

Kyler Murray = #1 QB selected. 

Daniel Jones = #2 QB selected. 

2020:

Joe Burrow = #1 QB selected. 

Tua Tagovailoa = #2 QB selected. 

You see. Outside of Trevor Lawrence who's the #1 overall Elway, Aikman, Manning and Luck of this QB draft class I really don't believe in this covid-tainted QB draft class as a whole (whatsoever) because imo they have more question marks and fears than answers and confidence and I wouldn't touch most until the 3rd round. 

• I'm taking guys like Penei Sewell/Kyle Pitts #2 overall over Fields/Zach. 

• I'm taking Najee Harris/Travis Etienne with our Seattle pick over Mac Jones/Kyle Trask. 

• And I'm also taking Terrace Marshall Jr./Rondale Moore over Trey Lance in the 2nd. 

I believe this draft is too stacked with can't miss A++ draft prospects outside of Trevor Lawrence to REACH on QBs who shouldn't be considered until our two 3rd round picks to begin with.

The worst thing we can do is settle for the #2 drafted QB all because we could miss out on Trevor Lawrence; because the history of the #2 QB selected is atrocious outside of the previous 5/38 drafts...

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On 12/22/2020 at 1:02 PM, fullblast said:

Lewis is not with the team currently, while he deals with an off the field issue. Sounds like he has some mental health issues potentially that he's dealing with. He's done for the year.

 

1 hour ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

I can't agree with CanadaSteve's assessment that "the 2nd QB picked seems to be better than the first QB selected". 

He was pretty much cherry picking and he also didn't lay out a real #1 vs. #2 draft selection @ QB. 

Sometimes these QB draft classes just actually stink and it's better much better to simply draft an RB or O-Lineman; but it's pretty rare that the #2 QB selected has a better NFL career than the #1 QB selected (see below). 

Dating back to 1983 (two years before I was born). 

1983:

John Elway = #1 QB selected. 

Todd Blackledge = #2 QB selected. 

1984:

Boomer Esiason = #1 QB selected. 

Jeff Hostetler = #2 QB selected. 

1985:

Randall Cunningham = #1 QB selected. 

Frank Reich = #2 QB selected. 

1986:

Jim Everett = #1 QB selected. 

Chuck Long = #2 QB selected. 

1987:

Vinny Testaverde = #1 QB selected. 

Kelly Stouffer = #2 QB selected. 

1988:

Tom Tupa = #1 QB selected (3rd round). 

Chris Chandler = #2 QB selected (3rd Rd).

1989

Troy Aikman = #1 QB selected. 

Mike Elkins = #2 QB selected. 

1990

Jeff George = #1 QB selected. 

Andre Ware = #2 QB selected. 

1991:

Dan McGwire = #1 QB selected. 

Todd Marinovich = #2 QB selected. 

1992

David Klingler = #1 QB selected. 

Tommy Maddox = #2 QB selected. 

1993

Drew Bledsoe = #1 QB selected. 

Rick Mirer = #2 QB selected. 

1994:

Heath Shuler = #1 QB selected. 

Trent Dilfer = #2 QB selected. 

1995:

Steve McNair = #1 QB selected. 

Kerry Collins = #2 QB selected. 

1996

Tony Banks = #1 QB selected. 

Bobby Hoying = #2 QB selected. 

1997

Jim Druckenmiller = #1 QB selected. 

Jake Plummer = #2 QB selected. 

1998:

Peyton Manning = #1 QB selected. 

Ryan Leaf = #2 QB selected. 

1999:

Tim Couch = #1 QB selected.

Donovan McNabb = #2 QB selected. 

2000

Chad Pennington = #1 QB selected. 

Giovanni Carmazzi = #2 QB selected. 

2001:

Mike Vick = #1 QB selected. 

Drew Brees = #2 QB selected. 

2002

David Carr = #1 QB selected. 

Joey Harrington = #2 QB selected. 

2003:

Carson Palmer = #1 QB selected. 

Byron Leftwich = #2 QB selected. 

2004:

Eli Manning = #1 QB selected. 

Philip Rivers = #2 QB selected. 

2005:

Alex Smith = #1 QB selected. 

Aaron Rodgers = #2 QB selected. 

2006:

Vince Young = #1 QB selected. 

Matt Leinart = #2 QB selected. 

2007:

JaMarcus Russell = #1 QB selected. 

Brady Quinn = #2 QB selected. 

2008:

Matt Ryan = #1 QB selected. 

Joe Flacco = #2 QB selected..

2009

Matthew Stafford = #1 QB selected. 

Mark Sanchez = #2 QB selected. 

2010:

Sam Bradford = #1 QB selected. 

Tim Tebow = #2 QB selected. 

2011

Cam Newton = #1 QB selected

Jake Locker = #2 QB selected. 

2012:

Andrew Luck = #1 QB selected. 

RG3 = #2 QB selected. 

2013:

EJ Manuel = #1 QB selected.

Geno Smith = #2 QB selected. 

2014:

Blake Bortles = #1 QB selected. 

Johnny Manziel = #2 QB selected. 

2015:

Jameis Winston = #1 QB selected. 

Marcus Mariota = #2 QB selected. 

2016

Jared Goff = #1 QB selected. 

Carson Wentz = #2 QB selected. 

2017:

Mitchell Trubisky = #1 QB selected.

Patrick Mahomes = #2 QB selected. 

2018:

Baker Mayfield = #1 QB selected. 

Sam Darnold = #2 QB selected. 

2019:

Kyler Murray = #1 QB selected. 

Daniel Jones = #2 QB selected. 

2020:

Joe Burrow = #1 QB selected. 

Tua Tagovailoa = #2 QB selected. 

You see. Outside of Trevor Lawrence who's the #1 overall Elway, Aikman, Manning and Luck of this QB draft class I really don't believe in this covid-tainted QB draft class as a whole (whatsoever) because imo they have more question marks and fears than answers and confidence and I wouldn't touch most until the 3rd round. 

• I'm taking guys like Penei Sewell/Kyle Pitts #2 overall over Fields/Zach. 

• I'm taking Najee Harris/Travis Etienne with our Seattle pick over Mac Jones/Kyle Trask. 

• And I'm also taking Terrace Marshall Jr./Rondale Moore over Trey Lance in the 2nd. 

I believe this draft is too stacked with can't miss A++ draft prospects outside of Trevor Lawrence to REACH on QBs who shouldn't be considered until our two 3rd round picks to begin with.

The worst thing we can do is settle for the #2 drafted QB all because we could miss out on Trevor Lawrence; because the history of the #2 QB selected is atrocious outside of the previous 5/38 drafts...

What all this shows is despite all the film and scouting and countless predictions no one really knows. The Jets have to get lucky and after 50 plus years maybe it’s our turn?  I doubt it but I’ll keep hoping because I’m a fan of the New York Jets and that is my lot in life. 

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Lawrence is the only QB that we know for sure would be an upgrade over Sam,-so losing out on him , why not trade down and get a haul, patch our many holes and see where that takes us. Sam is only 23, has a lot of talent, see what better protection, a good coach and added weapons can take him. The next couple of games will tell a lot, if he totally stinks, let him go, but if he looks good, keep him and move on. We are always looking for new shiny toys, but who is to say that Fields or Wilson are upgrades? Fields has poor pocket presence and a rather slow delivery, Wilson is more exciting but has injury concerns and doesn’t look sturdy, most likely shorter than listed and isn’t built strong.
I have faith that Joe Douglas will look at all options and make the right decision. He is the only one I trust in the Jets organization.


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

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22 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

CASES IN POINT:

2000 - Chad Pennington 1st QB taken (1st round -18th pick)

We all know who went 5 rounds later that was better. 

Something like 7 QBs went before Brady.  He wasnt the 2nd one picked.

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4 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Something like 7 QBs went before Brady.  He wasnt the 2nd one picked.

I know....The point for this exercise was to a) lighten the mood about TL  b) To show that in many instances, another QB other than the first one drafted is statistically more likely to be the better QB every year.

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2 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I know....The point for this exercise was to a) lighten the mood about TL  b) To show that in many instances, another QB other than the first one drafted is statistically more likely to be the better QB every year.

Right now b) means nothing to people here.  It was TL or nothing for too long.  

 

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50 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I know....The point for this exercise was to a) lighten the mood about TL  b) To show that in many instances, another QB other than the first one drafted is statistically more likely to be the better QB every year.

But the thread title specifically says "2nd QB picked".  This thread doesn't demonstrate this at all.

Obviously the first picked QB is going to have a fairly low hit rate when compared to ALL other QB's in a draft class.  You're comparing one QB vs. the field.  That isn't an argument against taking a QB 1st, however.

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Okay....Sorry that the title misled.  It was meant to read the 1st QB taken in the draft is statistically not always the best QB in the draft.  In fact, more cases then not that seems to be the case.

It was meant as a light-hearted thread to help ease the pain for those who thought Trevor Lawrence was THE guy to save this franchise.  Apparently, that is still too raw for most.

Carry on Jets Nation.....

 

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