1st Round QBS last 20 Years: Does Landing Spot Matter?

[HawkeyeJet]

For quite some time, I've hypothesized that landing spot(as in the quality of team a young QB winds up with) is just as much a factor of his development as anything.  I've been wanting to do a dive into that and see if stats backed it up.  Well I finally set aside some time this morning to do the research.  People can make their own conclusions, but this is going to be a long post to begin with as the spreadsheet contains 56 QBS.  All drafted in the first RD since 2000.  Obviously that will leave out a few notable names like Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Tony Romo.  I may go back and add them later, but for now just sticking with first Rounders.  The below list is sorted by highest team winning percentage the year before the player was drafted.  I'll be making another post where the list is sorted by winning percentage for the 3 years leading into their draft.  Then I'll probably make another post with just my general thoughts.  Obviously this doesn't 100% prove or disprove anything either way, but I think it's interesting.

Player	Team	Draft Year		Prior YearWins	Prior Win %	3 Year Prior Wins	3 Year Win %
Jay Cutler	Broncos	2006		13	0.8125	33	0.6875
Paxton Lynch	Broncos	2016		12	0.75	37	0.770833333
Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	2017		12	0.75	32	0.666666667
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	2005		10	0.625	32	0.666666667
Jason Campbell	Redskins	2006		10	0.625	21	0.4375
DeShaun Watson	Texans	2017		9	0.5625	27	0.5625
Josh Allen	Bills	2018		9	0.5625	24	0.5
Mark Sanchez	Jets	2009		9	0.5625	23	0.479166667
Lamar Jackson	Ravens	2018		9	0.5625	22	0.458333333
Chad Pennington	Jets	2000		8	0.5	29	0.604166667
Josh Rosen	Cardinals	2018		8	0.5	28	0.583333333
Patrick Ramsey	Redskins	2002		8	0.5	26	0.541666667
Tim Tebow	Broncos	2010		8	0.5	23	0.479166667
Josh Freeman	Bucs	2009		8	0.5	22	0.458333333
Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	2011		8	0.5	20	0.416666667
Kyle Boller	Ravens	2003		7	0.4375	29	0.604166667
Carson Wentz	Eagles	2016		7	0.4375	27	0.5625
Dwayne Haskins	Redskins	2019		7	0.4375	22	0.458333333
Jared Goff	Rams	2016		7	0.4375	20	0.416666667
Ben Roethlesberger	Steelers	2004		6	0.375	29	0.604166667
Christian Ponder	Vikings	2011		6	0.375	28	0.583333333
Jake Locker	Titans	2011		6	0.375	27	0.5625
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	2012		6	0.375	20	0.416666667
Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	2003		6	0.375	19	0.395833333
JP Losman	Bills	2004		6	0.375	17	0.354166667
EJ Manuel	Bills	2013		6	0.375	16	0.333333333
Matt Leinart	Cardinals	2006		6	0.375	15	0.3125
Joe Flacco	Ravens	2008		5	0.3125	24	0.5
Sam Darnold	Jets	2018		5	0.3125	20	0.416666667
Daniel Jones	Giants	2019		5	0.3125	19	0.395833333
Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	2014		5	0.3125	18	0.375
Robert Griffin	Redskins	2012		5	0.3125	15	0.3125
Michael Vick	Falcons	2001		4	0.25	23	0.479166667
Rex Grossman	Bears	2003		4	0.25	22	0.458333333
Vince Young	Titans	2006		4	0.25	21	0.4375
Eli Manning	Giants	2004		4	0.25	21	0.4375
Matt Ryan	Falcons	2008		4	0.25	19	0.395833333
Phillip Rivers	Chargers	2004		4	0.25	17	0.354166667
Brady Quinn	Browns	2007		4	0.25	14	0.291666667
Brandon Weeden	Browns	2012		4	0.25	14	0.291666667
Johnny Manziel	Browns	2014		4	0.25	13	0.270833333
Blake Bortles	Jaguars	2014		4	0.25	11	0.229166667
Mitch Trubisky	Bears	2017		3	0.1875	14	0.291666667
Kyler Murray	Cardinals	2019		3	0.1875	11	0.229166667
Andrew Luck	Colts	2012		2	0.125	26	0.541666667
Cam Newton	Panthers	2011		2	0.125	22	0.458333333
Joey Harrington	Lions	2002		2	0.125	19	0.395833333
Alex Smith	Niners	2005		2	0.125	19	0.395833333
Marcus Mariota	Titans	2015		2	0.125	15	0.3125
Jameis Winston	Bucs	2015		2	0.125	13	0.270833333
Carson Palmer	Bengals	2003		2	0.125	12	0.25
Jamarcus Russell	Raiders	2007		2	0.125	11	0.229166667
Sam Bradford	Rams	2010		1	0.0625	5	0.104166667
Matthew Stafford	Lions	2009		0	0	10	0.208333333
Baker Mayfield	Browns	2018		0	0	4	0.083333333
David Carr	Texans	2002			0		0

[HawkeyeJet]

Here is the List sorted by winning percentage over the 3 years proceeding the player being drafted.

Player	Team	Draft Year		Prior YearWins	Prior Win %	3 Year Prior Wins	3 Year Win %
Paxton Lynch	Broncos	2016		12	0.75	37	0.770833333
Jay Cutler	Broncos	2006		13	0.8125	33	0.6875
Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	2017		12	0.75	32	0.666666667
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	2005		10	0.625	32	0.666666667
Chad Pennington	Jets	2000		8	0.5	29	0.604166667
Kyle Boller	Ravens	2003		7	0.4375	29	0.604166667
Ben Roethlesberger	Steelers	2004		6	0.375	29	0.604166667
Josh Rosen	Cardinals	2018		8	0.5	28	0.583333333
Christian Ponder	Vikings	2011		6	0.375	28	0.583333333
DeShaun Watson	Texans	2017		9	0.5625	27	0.5625
Carson Wentz	Eagles	2016		7	0.4375	27	0.5625
Jake Locker	Titans	2011		6	0.375	27	0.5625
Patrick Ramsey	Redskins	2002		8	0.5	26	0.541666667
Andrew Luck	Colts	2012		2	0.125	26	0.541666667
Josh Allen	Bills	2018		9	0.5625	24	0.5
Joe Flacco	Ravens	2008		5	0.3125	24	0.5
Mark Sanchez	Jets	2009		9	0.5625	23	0.479166667
Tim Tebow	Broncos	2010		8	0.5	23	0.479166667
Michael Vick	Falcons	2001		4	0.25	23	0.479166667
Lamar Jackson	Ravens	2018		9	0.5625	22	0.458333333
Josh Freeman	Bucs	2009		8	0.5	22	0.458333333
Dwayne Haskins	Redskins	2019		7	0.4375	22	0.458333333
Rex Grossman	Bears	2003		4	0.25	22	0.458333333
Cam Newton	Panthers	2011		2	0.125	22	0.458333333
Jason Campbell	Redskins	2006		10	0.625	21	0.4375
Vince Young	Titans	2006		4	0.25	21	0.4375
Eli Manning	Giants	2004		4	0.25	21	0.4375
Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	2011		8	0.5	20	0.416666667
Jared Goff	Rams	2016		7	0.4375	20	0.416666667
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	2012		6	0.375	20	0.416666667
Sam Darnold	Jets	2018		5	0.3125	20	0.416666667
Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	2003		6	0.375	19	0.395833333
Daniel Jones	Giants	2019		5	0.3125	19	0.395833333
Matt Ryan	Falcons	2008		4	0.25	19	0.395833333
Joey Harrington	Lions	2002		2	0.125	19	0.395833333
Alex Smith	Niners	2005		2	0.125	19	0.395833333
Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	2014		5	0.3125	18	0.375
JP Losman	Bills	2004		6	0.375	17	0.354166667
Phillip Rivers	Chargers	2004		4	0.25	17	0.354166667
EJ Manuel	Bills	2013		6	0.375	16	0.333333333
Matt Leinart	Cardinals	2006		6	0.375	15	0.3125
Robert Griffin	Redskins	2012		5	0.3125	15	0.3125
Marcus Mariota	Titans	2015		2	0.125	15	0.3125
Brady Quinn	Browns	2007		4	0.25	14	0.291666667
Brandon Weeden	Browns	2012		4	0.25	14	0.291666667
Mitch Trubisky	Bears	2017		3	0.1875	14	0.291666667
Johnny Manziel	Browns	2014		4	0.25	13	0.270833333
Jameis Winston	Bucs	2015		2	0.125	13	0.270833333
Carson Palmer	Bengals	2003		2	0.125	12	0.25
Blake Bortles	Jaguars	2014		4	0.25	11	0.229166667
Kyler Murray	Cardinals	2019		3	0.1875	11	0.229166667
Jamarcus Russell	Raiders	2007		2	0.125	11	0.229166667
Matthew Stafford	Lions	2009		0	0	10	0.208333333
Sam Bradford	Rams	2010		1	0.0625	5	0.104166667
Baker Mayfield	Browns	2018		0	0	4	0.083333333
David Carr	Texans	2002			0		0

[HawkeyeJet]

I haven't had a ton of time to review the list and see what the trends are, if any, but it certainly does appear that some of the bigger names at the position have often went to pretty good teams to begin with, either were good the year before they got their, the 3 years before they got their, or both.  

There are also a lot of QBs who flopped who went into favorable spots.  

I think more than anything it shows though, is that generally speaking, most QBs who go to bad situations haven't flourished.  There are a few examples, Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford, who went to bad situations and turned out to be very good QBs.  Newton went to a team that was bad the previous year, but respectable the 2 seasons prior to that.  Mayfield went into the worst situation(based on records) of any QB of the last 20 years and has at least kept his head above water.  I don't think anyone would consider him a top level QB though.

Anyway, like I said in my first post, this doesn't necessarily mean or prove anything.  I just think it's interesting.  So while we may miss out on Trevor Lawrence and he may go on to be great, it appears he'd be bucking a trend doing so.

[Losmeister]

It is interesting.

Thanks for taking the time.

[Jetsfan80]

One could also argue that the teams that were already good destinations were already run by GM's very good at talent evaluation.  Hence, they were probably more capable of finding a quality QB prospect, even when picking later in the draft.

Take the Chiefs and Andy Reid, for instance.  Alex Smith was coming off a career year.  Yet Andy Reid decided to trade up to acquire Mahomes.  Yes, it was a perfect situation for a young QB to come to.  But Reid obviously felt VERY highly of Mahomes to make a move like that.  He had a decent idea that he was getting someone special.  

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

[Anthony Jet]

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

One could also argue that the teams that were already good destinations were already run by GM's very good at talent evaluation.  Hence, they were probably more capable of finding a quality QB prospect, even when picking later in the draft.

Take the Chiefs and Andy Reid, for instance.  Alex Smith was coming off a career year.  Yet Andy Reid decided to trade up to acquire Mahomes.  Yes, it was a perfect situation for a young QB to come to.  But Reid obviously felt VERY highly of Mahomes to make a move like that.  He had a decent idea that he was getting someone special.  

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

This is a good point, Mahommes walked into a great situation, but really you gotta give it to Reid there, he traded up for A player that wasn’t gonna play for them that year, even though they were competing for the playoffs, that’s how much he liked him 

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

One could also argue that the teams that were already good destinations were already run by GM's very good at talent evaluation.  Hence, they were probably more capable of finding a quality QB prospect, even when picking later in the draft.

Take the Chiefs and Andy Reid, for instance.  Alex Smith was coming off a career year.  Yet Andy Reid decided to trade up to acquire Mahomes.  Yes, it was a perfect situation for a young QB to come to.  But Reid obviously felt VERY highly of Mahomes to make a move like that.  He had a decent idea that he was getting someone special.  

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

 

By this logic IF we finally have a good talent evaluator at GM then even without Lawrence on the Board we'd have to trust the Jets could pick the right needle out of the Fields, Zack Wilson, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Trey Lance haystack.  By law of averages I'd have to guess that at least one (probably two) of those QBs will become quality NFL starters at some point.  The challenge, as you suggest, is whether the Jets are now an organization that can evaluate talent properly?  If we had the current scouting department in place in 2018 how would they have stacked Darnold, Allen, Lamar?

 

[QB1]

I just watched a YouTube video of Mahommes putting up 820 yards in one game at Texas Tech- how this kid wasn’t #1 overall is beyond me.

[JTJet]

2 hours ago, QB1 said:

I just watched a YouTube video of Mahommes putting up 820 yards in one game at Texas Tech- how this kid wasn’t #1 overall is beyond me.

You answered your own question. 

[StrawberryFields]

1 hour ago, JTJet said:

You answered your own question. 

Which was ridiculous. Jared Goff ran the same offense at Cal and was drafted number 1 overall. 

[joewilly12]

4 hours ago, QB1 said:

I just watched a YouTube video of Mahommes putting up 820 yards in one game at Texas Tech- how this kid wasn’t #1 overall is beyond me.

Some us here were all in on Patrick Mahomes but you know the story....................

[kevinc855]

13 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

One could also argue that the teams that were already good destinations were already run by GM's very good at talent evaluation.  Hence, they were probably more capable of finding a quality QB prospect, even when picking later in the draft.

Take the Chiefs and Andy Reid, for instance.  Alex Smith was coming off a career year.  Yet Andy Reid decided to trade up to acquire Mahomes.  Yes, it was a perfect situation for a young QB to come to.  But Reid obviously felt VERY highly of Mahomes to make a move like that.  He had a decent idea that he was getting someone special.  

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

And jd took a guy named James morgan over countless late rounders actually contributing to their current team...

it’s happens man

[jgb]

Only one of these QBs was materially better on his second team than his first (Tannehill) and I’d argue the improvement wasn’t as huge as some think. So no, landing spot doesn’t matter much.

[Philc1]

Ofcourse it matters. Unless you are an all time great like Brady or Manning you still need a good supporting cast and competent coaching which even those 2 guys had

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Only one of these QBs was materially better on his second team than his first (Tannehill) and I’d argue the improvement wasn’t as huge as some think. So no, landing spot doesn’t matter much.

Did you see Tannehill last week?  He’s a totally different player without Gase.  He actually throws downfield and plays with confidence 

[Philc1]

12 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

And jd took a guy named James morgan over countless late rounders actually contributing to their current team...

it’s happens man

JD’s record is mixed at best.  But he did nail the Becton and Mims picks and got a nice package for Adams

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Did you see Tannehill last week?  He’s a totally different player without Gase.  He actually throws downfield and plays with confidence 

I watch him every week he’s my favorite player. But even granting that he’s better (he is, but I still believe the signs where there in Miami, after all I predicted a pro bowl turn around) that’s one guy on the list who became a different guy on his second team. If landing spot matters so much, where are the others?

[bla bla bla]

13 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

By this logic IF we finally have a good talent evaluator at GM then even without Lawrence on the Board we'd have to trust the Jets could pick the right needle out of the Fields, Zack Wilson, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Trey Lance haystack.  By law of averages I'd have to guess that at least one (probably two) of those QBs will become quality NFL starters at some point.  The challenge, as you suggest, is whether the Jets are now an organization that can evaluate talent properly?  If we had the current scouting department in place in 2018 how would they have stacked Darnold, Allen, Lamar?

GM is so important, the way the Bills, Browns, and Ravens have supported their young QBs is brilliant. I think stable coaching staff is important as well.

[JTJet]

9 hours ago, StrawberryFields said:

Which was ridiculous. Jared Goff ran the same offense at Cal and was drafted number 1 overall. 

It's still the answer to his question. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

16 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

One could also argue that the teams that were already good destinations were already run by GM's very good at talent evaluation.  Hence, they were probably more capable of finding a quality QB prospect, even when picking later in the draft.

Take the Chiefs and Andy Reid, for instance.  Alex Smith was coming off a career year.  Yet Andy Reid decided to trade up to acquire Mahomes.  Yes, it was a perfect situation for a young QB to come to.  But Reid obviously felt VERY highly of Mahomes to make a move like that.  He had a decent idea that he was getting someone special.  

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

Interesting point but I think the good situation point still stands. Are a lot of these QBs surviving here under 2 years of Gase and 1 year of Macc? 
 

I know we think Sam sucks but I’d think he has better success if he was in say, SF from the jump.

 I think Mayfields situation is a perfect example. Started with a 0-16 HC, looked OK, expected to take a jump year 2 but had just as bad a HC in Kitchens and has a meh year. Enter a good coach and surprise, he takes a jump and team enters playoffs.  

 

[Losmeister]

21 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Meanwhile, Mike Maccagnan takes Christian Hackenberg, and the Box Safety over Mahomes/Watson.  Because that's what bad organizations do:  They don't evaluate talent properly.

punto

[Jetsfan80]

On 12/27/2020 at 9:53 AM, Samtorobby47 said:

Interesting point but I think the good situation point still stands. Are a lot of these QBs surviving here under 2 years of Gase and 1 year of Macc? 
 

I know we think Sam sucks but I’d think he has better success if he was in say, SF from the jump.

 I think Mayfields situation is a perfect example. Started with a 0-16 HC, looked OK, expected to take a jump year 2 but had just as bad a HC in Kitchens and has a meh year. Enter a good coach and surprise, he takes a jump and team enters playoffs.  

 

Put it this way.  If Andy Reid had drafted Sam Darnold, he'd have been looking for his replacement in 1-2 seasons.  Then again, Reid probably would have never been dumb enough to take a flawed prospect like Darnold in the first place.

Destination and organization can help make a good QB great.  It can't make a bad QB good.  No one can do that.  Sam Darnold in Kansas City would just be a bad QB with great coaching and weapons.