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Interesting Trade Down Possibilities


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8 minutes ago, slats said:

At a bare minimum, I fleece the fish for all I can get to move back one spot and still have a choice of all the QBs. 

I wonder if a team has ever traded into a spot and then immediately but separately flipped it to another team. Also wonder if that's even allowed, although I can't imagine that it wouldn't be.

For instance, draft order is Jags, Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, Bengals:

- Jets are unwilling to trade down to 4 or 5 because they're afraid ATL might take their QB, and aren't getting the required compensation back from either to justify losing that QB
- While on the clock, Jets trade back one spot to the Dolphins just to get a few extra picks out of them knowing that the Dolphins wouldn't take a QB after picking Tua last year. The reasoning is as you state: they believe they'll still have their choice of all of the QBs.
- Now Dolphins are on the clock, but they traded up with a purpose: they don't care about the QB and just want Sewell, and they know the Jets aren't going to take an RT at #3 overall, so they're happy with the same package from ATL which the Jets find weak. ATL gets their QB, Dolphins pick up a few extra picks, but still get to pick Sewell. So, while on the clock, they trade with ATL.

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We can't risk losing our QB by trading down.  Gotta take your guy at 2.

Every year we talk about this. Every year it doesn't happen. 

If the Jets are zeroing in on a specific QB, then you stand pat and draft him. However, trading back a few spots and gaining draft capital works if they like multiple players. Sent from my iPhone u

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10 minutes ago, slats said:

It’s obviously not unprecedented given what Arizona did with Rosen and Murray, but I’d be shocked if they took a QB. LT is high on their needs. That would be an added bonus of trading him to Cincy; also keeping him from the fish. 

I'm not taking that chance. I don't trust the Fins. They will take Wilson. Tua has been a bust in Miami.  Take Wilson, let them have Fields.  

Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Sewell first 5 picks in draft. 

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4 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

I'm not taking that chance. I don't trust the Fins. They will take Wilson. Tua has been a bust in Miami.  Take Wilson, let them have Fields.  

Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Sewell first 5 picks in draft. 

The QBs always rise, but I strongly doubt they rise to #’s 1-4 this year. 

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3 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

I'm not taking that chance. I don't trust the Fins. They will take Wilson. Tua has been a bust in Miami.  Take Wilson, let them have Fields.  

Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Sewell first 5 picks in draft. 

i think douglas got 'too cutsy' last year in round 2, trading back to the end of the round and nearly missing out on mims.  there was a major run on wrs in rounds 1 and 2 last year and we'll probably never know if douglas was ok with not drafting mims and not really getting any high end wrs  in the first 2 rounds of the draft, or if he took a calculated risk and nearly lost.  i just hope he realizes that there's a huge risk in trading out of the 2 spot if he's really high on at least 1 of the qbs.

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11 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I wonder if a team has ever traded into a spot and then immediately but separately flipped it to another team. Also wonder if that's even allowed, although I can't imagine that it wouldn't be.

For instance, draft order is Jags, Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, Bengals:

- Jets are unwilling to trade down to 4 or 5 because they're afraid ATL might take their QB, and aren't getting the required compensation back from either to justify losing that QB
- While on the clock, Jets trade back one spot to the Dolphins just to get a few extra picks out of them knowing that the Dolphins wouldn't take a QB after picking Tua last year. The reasoning is as you state: they believe they'll still have their choice of all of the QBs.
- Now Dolphins are on the clock, but they traded up with a purpose: they don't care about the QB and just want Sewell, and they know the Jets aren't going to take an RT at #3 overall, so they're happy with the same package from ATL which the Jets find weak. ATL gets their QB, Dolphins pick up a few extra picks, but still get to pick Sewell. So, while on the clock, they trade with ATL.

If you’re worried about this, you finalize the trade with 30 seconds left on the clock. 

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14 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I wonder if a team has ever traded into a spot and then immediately but separately flipped it to another team. Also wonder if that's even allowed, although I can't imagine that it wouldn't be.

For instance, draft order is Jags, Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, Bengals:

- Jets are unwilling to trade down to 4 or 5 because they're afraid ATL might take their QB, and aren't getting the required compensation back from either to justify losing that QB
- While on the clock, Jets trade back one spot to the Dolphins just to get a few extra picks out of them knowing that the Dolphins wouldn't take a QB after picking Tua last year. The reasoning is as you state: they believe they'll still have their choice of all of the QBs.
- Now Dolphins are on the clock, but they traded up with a purpose: they don't care about the QB and just want Sewell, and they know the Jets aren't going to take an RT at #3 overall, so they're happy with the same package from ATL which the Jets find weak. ATL gets their QB, Dolphins pick up a few extra picks, but still get to pick Sewell. So, while on the clock, they trade with ATL.

i'd like to think that if douglas really, really wanted one of the qbs he would not get cutsy and trade back and not control things just to get an extra pick.  if wilson is the guy, take him and don't look back.  

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13 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

We can't risk losing our QB by trading down.  Gotta take your guy at 2.

Your living in fantasy land. We're not drafting a QB. I really believe that you know that. Move on, pray every day that you're wrong about Darnold and have a happy, healthy, and stress free off season

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Im firmly in the draft Wilson at 2 camp but I thought this mock was interesting: 
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-mock-draft-crabbs-4.0
Ignore the selections themselves because that’s all a guess, but the idea of trading back with a team that’s a little more on the outside for a massive haul of picks is more appealing to me than trading back a spot or two for an extra pick or two. Would be curious to get other opinions. 


I can’t see a team paying that draft price to get Wilson.


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app
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11 minutes ago, slats said:

If you’re worried about this, you finalize the trade with 30 seconds left on the clock. 

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i'd like to think that if douglas really, really wanted one of the qbs he would not get cutsy and trade back and not control things just to get an extra pick.  if wilson is the guy, take him and don't look back.  

Not worried or trying to explain a rationale; simply was wondering if the collective board knows whether something like that has happened before or is even allowable on draft day. 

 

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4 minutes ago, genot said:

Your living in fantasy land. We're not drafting a QB. I really believe that you know that. Move on, pray every day that you're wrong about Darnold and have a happy, healthy, and stress free off season

I’m a huge Sam supporter since Day 1. But I don’t think there’s a chance the Jets keep him. I think they are taking highest rated QB on their board.

I think the most likely scenario is JD and a new HC hand pick their own QB, one that will be cheap for the next 4 years. This will allow for continued cap flexibility even after we hopefully sign a Robinson/Thuney type duo. Will also add to our trove of picks as Darnold will net us a 3rd round pick. 

We haven’t picked this high in a draft in 25 years. I trust JD to scout the sh*t outta these QBs and pick the right one. 

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12 minutes ago, genot said:

Your living in fantasy land. We're not drafting a QB. I really believe that you know that. Move on, pray every day that you're wrong about Darnold and have a happy, healthy, and stress free off season

There is literally no doubt in my mind we're taking a QB at 2.

It is the only logical thing to do.  Nothing else would make sense.

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14 hours ago, KRL said:

Based on the chart they would have to give up #5 plus a 2nd & 3rd:

https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

I think this is the most realistic trade comp but I have a hard time believing the Bengals would give up so much for a T.  They have one pick in each round, lots of holes to fill and this would mean they don’t draft again until round 4.  Stranger things have happened.

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2 hours ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Im firmly in the draft Wilson at 2 camp but I thought this mock was interesting: 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-mock-draft-crabbs-4.0

Ignore the selections themselves because that’s all a guess, but the idea of trading back with a team that’s a little more on the outside for a massive haul of picks is more appealing to me than trading back a spot or two for an extra pick or two. Would be curious to get other opinions. 

Thats the type of trade that could really change the fortunes of the team.  
 

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2 hours ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Im firmly in the draft Wilson at 2 camp but I thought this mock was interesting: 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-mock-draft-crabbs-4.0

Ignore the selections themselves because that’s all a guess, but the idea of trading back with a team that’s a little more on the outside for a massive haul of picks is more appealing to me than trading back a spot or two for an extra pick or two. Would be curious to get other opinions. 

This would be ideal, especially if we’d get Smith (WR) & Pitts (TE) as mocked.

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1 hour ago, slats said:

It's not that cut & dried. Two major factors here will be their evaluations of the QBs, and what kind of offers he's getting for that pick. Is there one clear cut option worthy of the #2 pick? Or do they have two or three guys ranked closely enough that they'd be happy with any of them? Or maybe the guy they like is a guy like Trask who could be had with their second first rounder. 

I also expect Douglas to take a logical, pragmatic approach, and -as such- he'll look at all of his options very carefully, working with his new head coach to land the right QB. I think it's pretty clear that JD loves draft picks, though. If he can trade down to #5 and get Cincy's #1 & #2 this year, and their #1 next year (a trade in line with the draft pick trade chart), I think that's gonna be awful hard for him to pass up. The only reason he wouldn't is because he (or his HC) fell in love with a particular QB. 

Good post.  Very logical.

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32 minutes ago, prime21 said:

 


I can’t see a team paying that draft price to get Wilson.


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Its funny - I thought the same thing, figured 49ers fans would hate it. Texted a friend who was a 49er fan and he said he'd do it in a heart beat. Convinced team can win now and having their guy at QB on a rookie deal would help a ton with cap issues. 49ers message board also seemed to all go for it: https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/194371-zach-wilson-qb-byu/page146/search=rathof44

 

Not that fan sentiment means anything, but I think as Jets fans we're probably a little bit snake bit on giving up a haul of picks to get a QB based on what happened with Darnold. I think a lot of us in the 2011-2013 years would have been more than fine trying to mortgage the future in an attempt to "win now" as the perception was the team was a competitor and the QB was holding them back. 49ers also have some tricky cap issues that would be greatly relieved if they could move on from Jimmy G and enlist a young QB. 

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26 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

There is literally no doubt in my mind we're taking a QB at 2.

It is the only logical thing to do.  Nothing else would make sense.

I wish i was a gambler. My father was, that's why im not. There's no doubt in my mind that Douglas believes in Sam, and will do everything he can to rectify the mistake he made last year by not re-signing Anderson. Double dipping at WR. A stud guard. No more half hearted measures. I.E. Perriman

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So many factor’s.

  • It will depend heavily on what the new coach thinks.
  • It will depend even more heavily what Douglas thinks of the tier2 QBs.
  • This weekend’s Ohio State game will say a lot about Fields.  If he sh*ts the bed again, he will fall.
  • Interviews with players will weigh heavily on the the evaluations.
  • If Daboll is the HC he may see a lot of Josh Allen in Trey Lance.  Lance may light up the interviews and workouts and shoot up.
  • If Darnold is kept, Douglas will sign another QB like Mariotta, rather than another Flacco.
  • If Darnold is kept Douglas may sign Thuney, Allen Robinson and draft L. Chase and Chuma Hubbard.
  • By the time the draft gets here, the league may think Wilson is too small (6’1”) and too frail to be taken high.

At this point no one knows any of this.

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15 minutes ago, genot said:

I wish i was a gambler. My father was, that's why im not. There's no doubt in my mind that Douglas believes in Sam, and will do everything he can to rectify the mistake he made last year by not re-signing Anderson. Double dipping at WR. A stud guard. No more half hearted measures. I.E. Perriman

Just no way JD is going to put his career on the line for a QB who is now worse than he was as a rookie.

I've been a big Sam fan, but he's gone and JD is taking a QB/

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14 hours ago, Jet Life said:

I feel like tackle isn’t even a need for this team. Fant was decent and Becton played great. Only argument is Sewell is truly elite so I’d get it (still prefer QB) but if we trade to 6 I’m taking a weapon . WR or Pitts 

Mekhi Becton gave up 7 pressures yesterday 

OT is still a dire need 

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Mekhi Becton gave up 7 pressures yesterday 

OT is still a dire need 

A rookie having a bad game , when overall has had a good season, does not make it a dire need. Especially when the QB (most important position) is the worst in football 

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I don't see any team trading up to 2 this year. Draft pic's this year are at a premium...I also don't see any QB other than TL worth a top 10 pick this year...

Things can change after the bowl games and as we get closer to the draft but with the lowered CAP I don't see it.

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This is a weird year in so many ways. Traditionally trade downs in the first are pretty unlikely, but I think this year, the Jets have some options. In fact with Sewell and 2 or 3 QBs other than TL likely going in the top 10, the Jets may have the opportunity to trade down multiple times. Acquire extra 2nds and 3rds this year and 1sts next year. With the extra picks, and a ton of cap and a bunch os 2022 picks, we can trade with cap strapped teams for quality players.

We should be able to rebuild the team in 2 years. With a better coach and better line and skill players Sam should be enough to get us through 2021; then use 1 or more picks in 2022 to draft a quality QB and bring him into a stacked team. People were like you can't pass on TL; well, that is done. So, acquire as many players via picks and trades; build a quality team on both sides of the ball and then bring in a new QB next year into a much better team with players already established.

If you think that TL was a generational talent, then the other guys can't be; so, instead of grabbing a quality QB this year, build the team this year and next and draft a quality QB next year. Take the long term approach and don't fall into the he is the best so we must take him plan. Any player can get hurt or fail, but the odds are if you draft 6-8 players in day1/day2 over the next 2 years, we really cannot miss (if you trust JD). 12-16 starters in 2 years including a quality QB next year is better than 8-10 starters and a quality QB this year IMO.

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3 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

i think douglas got 'too cutsy' last year in round 2, trading back to the end of the round and nearly missing out on mims.  there was a major run on wrs in rounds 1 and 2 last year and we'll probably never know if douglas was ok with not drafting mims and not really getting any high end wrs  in the first 2 rounds of the draft, or if he took a calculated risk and nearly lost.  i just hope he realizes that there's a huge risk in trading out of the 2 spot if he's really high on at least 1 of the qbs.

yea that was a head scratcher considering how bereft we were in the WR department.  I didn't care for the trade back. He got really lucky.  At 2, just take your QB and trade back at 27 or 33. I would be ok with that.

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3 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

I'm not taking that chance. I don't trust the Fins. They will take Wilson. Tua has been a bust in Miami.  Take Wilson, let them have Fields.  

Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Sewell first 5 picks in draft. 

I don't know what you have been watching but the fin's aren't picking a QB. TL will go first overall after him there isn't a QB worth a top ten pick unless the Jet's reach. 

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17 hours ago, TheClashFan said:

I can't shake Mike Mac trading three 2nd round picks to move up 3 slots and draft Darnold. Three.  Oh, the humanity!

 

and..not even sure who would be at 3. the trade was a month before the draft.

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I think the Jets Management Structure will always lead to flawed drafts.  

The GM's job is to hit on picks.  The coaches job is to coach and try to win.  Who is trying to build a winning football team?

You saw it with Mac's picks clearly.  I wonder if JD is doing the same thing.

Why does Frank Gore have the most carries of any RB yesterday?

And the Johnsons are always reluctant to admit a mistake and take a loss, and somehow believe they always deserve a draft pick when their first round picks don't work out.   Look at how Wilkerson and Revis, among others, worked out, and why Kyle Smith played for four years.  We knew he stunk year 1.  

JD or someone needs responsibility for the ultimate football product.  That means he will be selecting players that can help the team, hopefully sooner than later.   Those will be offensive in particular, since Darnold and/or other QBs will need support.  

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