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My QB Plan (For Today At Least)


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14 minutes ago, slats said:

I think they’ll get a second or better if they put him on the market. His value to the league is still higher than it is on this board, especially those rushing to be right about players sucking. 
 
But if they don’t get that, he’ll retain that value and it could go up rather quickly if another team lost their starter. 

I hope you’re right. Although 3 years isn’t really rushing to a conclusion IMHO.

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I've been totally "wishy-washy" about whether to bring Darnold back or to move on. But in this post I'm going to say move on.  Why?  Because one draft spot shouldn't change the evaluation of Darno

I agree, without question, we're taking a QB. I think it would be insane to do that and then go out and take defense with the next two premium picks.  It would be full-on dereliction of duties.

I don’t disagree. The move here is to take Fields who is an elite top tier athlete like Allen. Built like a tank, Cannon, accurate, 4.4 speed, elusive. The guy has a higher QBR than TL for Christ

Just now, Augustiniak said:

Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean that a team will be willing to dole out multiple high draft picks for him.  

Lol, no, I’m talking about a second rounder or better, but not any major haul. People are talking about a third and I think that’s too low. 

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12 minutes ago, genot said:

Hey man. Look. I respect everybody's views here.Obviously yours too. I just think your wrong about Sam. He's been continuously put in a bad position that made it difficult for him to be comfortable and grow in the position.I have faith in Douglas. I believe he see' s the same thing, and this off season he fixes the things that have held Darnold back. 

I'll admit.  I flip flop. The one thing in Darnold's defense is in his 3 years the highest the Jets rushing game has ever been ranked is #23.  Not every winning QB is HOF caliber. How much of Tannehill's improvement is getting away from Gase vs. having Derrick Henry?  

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6 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, no, I’m talking about a second rounder or better, but not any major haul. People are talking about a third and I think that’s too low. 

i know.  but look at the flip side of this debate.  if the jets were considering trading for darnold to possibly re-program him and attempt to salvage his career, what percent of the folks here would advocate dealing a 2nd round pick for him?  not high, i imagine.

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  • This team will not be ready to compete in 2021.  JD is relying on draft picks who naturally will need to develop.  So how do you maximize the value of the team for 2022 going forward?
  • It seems like a 2 for Darnold is something you take now.  Otherwise, hold onto him and have him compete/provide a buffer for a rookie QB, and maybe we can trade him for a 2 or better if he plays well with a better/team/coach.  Or tag and trade.
  • This is where JD makes his money.  He needs to decide who is worth the number 2 pick.  Would teams now pick Mahomes, Watson, Allen or Jackson at 2 today?  Of course they would.  But no one at the time thought they should have been picked earlier.  They had flaws and issues that needed to be managed and coached up.   I think this will also be true with Wilson, Fields and maybe others.
  • So, JD could theoretically trade down and pick a Jones, Lance, Trask later.  Or try to get Wilson or Fields a bit lower while accumulating draft capital for WR, RB, OL, etc.
  • This is a great article on Zach Wilson.  He is a great story, but if you read between the lines there are issues with him being picked at 2.  He will have a tough time putting on weight because he is on medication, and moving to NY could be an issue with him.  Great family though.  Also points out the Darnold issue-Wilson has been playing QB, and learning the position, since he was young.  I think the fundamental flaw in the Darnold pick is his lack of mental/muscle memory.  https://www.deseret.com/sports/2019/8/25/20828350/how-those-closest-to-zach-wilson-ute-fans-to-the-core-played-a-hand-in-landing-him-at-byu
  • I like the QB idea in 2021 of Darnold, Rookie, Morgan, PS person in case we can trade Darnold.   I don't see the need in carrying a veteran that costs too much money.  
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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i know.  but look at the flip side of this debate.  if the jets were considering trading for darnold to possibly re-program him and attempt to salvage his career, what percent of the folks here would advocate dealing a 2nd round pick for him?  not high, i imagine.

Yeah, but we’re Jet fans. Other teams might have fans who think their favorite team is competent. 

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

I've been totally "wishy-washy" about whether to bring Darnold back or to move on.
But in this post I'm going to say move on.  Why?  Because one draft spot shouldn't
change the evaluation of Darnold's performance.  If we got the #1 spot Douglas would've
put Darnold on the market immediately, no questions asked.  Should being in the #2 spot
change his thought process that drastically?  Granted there's a "perceived" difference
between Lawrence and Fields or Wilson (we'll see) but there's no difference in Darnold's
performance.  He's been uneven and below average no matter what our draft position is.
I say re-start the "QB $$$ clock" and use what BUF did with Josh Allen as our model to
reset the QB position.  In 2018 there is no QB I wanted less than Josh Allen, he was a
physical freak who had poor accuracy and "wet the bed" against decent competition.  In
3 years a good offensive staff has grown Allen in every facet of QB play until he's now
a legitimate MVP candidate.  You could've never convinced me that Allen would ever be a
QB that could complete 68% of his passes:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

So I'm going to put the pressure on Douglas and his staff to:

- Find the right HC with an innovative offensive staff who has a real plan to grow a QB
- Properly evaluate Fields and Wilson and pull the trigger

My general off-season plan would be:

- Trade Darnold for a #3 hopefully a #2
- In free agency sign a G (Thuney?), WR (Robinson/Godwin?) and Edge (Judon?)   
- In the draft:
  #1 - Fields or Wilson
  #1 - BPA CB or Edge
  #2 - BPA CB or Edge (whatever we don't pick with our second #1)
  #3 - BPA WR
  #3 - BPA OL
  #3 - BPA RB  

My 2 cents until I probably change my mind

Frankly, IMO this is a horrible plan.

1. Yes, one spot CAN and often does make that kind of difference when we're talking about the QB position.  A clear-cut elite-prospect 1A is not the same as an also-ran secondary prospect 2B type.  You do not reach for a 2B just because you missed on the 1A.

2. Yes, Darnold is horrible.  It's not debatable.  He's also played for two of the worst Coaches in our history, with some of the weakest Offensive rosters in our history.  We simply have to look at the big picture, Darnold IS a problem, but so is everything else.  IF we must retain him another year (WITH competition, note), so be it.  

3. Use of your own prior poor judgement in re: Josh Allen is funny, since you could thus also be wrong about Darnold, and Wilson and Fields.  And IMO you're likely wrong about 'just picking a QB' no matter what at #2.  The entire plan reeks of desperation reactionary moves, not well considered, well evaluated, well planned out moves.  Just look at how you put it "properly evaluate then pull the trigger".  What if the evaluation proves out that they're 2B candidates?  

4. Your FA and draft plan is a nightmare.  It literally repeats the same mistakes we (and our fans) make every cycle.  First, we can't and won't just sign all the best Free Agents we want.  31 other teams will compete for them, and some have alot more to offer than the NY Jets do.  We'll be lucky to sign ONE prominent "name" Free Agent and very possibly could land none of them.  No Robinson.  No Thuny.  The Offense cannot be fixed via Free Agency alone. 

Same for the Draft Plan.  Goes defense at #1B and #2?  Insanity.  What is it with Jets Fans (and Coaches and GM's) obsession with Defense in an era literally dominated by Offensive Football?  This isn't 1960 or even 1985, you're simply not going to win a title with Defense.  In the modern NFL, the Defense needs to be just good enough to allow your Offense to win games.  And your Offense needs to score and score alot.

5. I will never understand how one can think two mutually exclusive things at the same time:  i.e. Either Darnold sucks and needs dumped OR he's a valuable asset worth someone giving us a #2 pick for him so they can start him.  It cannot be both things.

Let me counter with an alternate plan:

A. Sam Darnold is retained for his fourth season.

B. The Jets Draft:

--the elite O-line Prospect Sewell at #1A. O-line is the foundation upon which I build my team.  This locks down both Tackles for a decade (and yes, I'm HAPPY to pay both if both pan out).
--the best possible WR prospect at #1B.  There will be a few at that spot worthy of a #1 WR role.
--Travis Etienne (RB) at #2.  A legit playmaker at RB.
--Second Tier QB prospect like Trask from Florida at #3A.  Sleeper pick of my Draft.
--the best possible Center prospect at #3B.
--Defense or Oline depth the rest of the way as needed (CB & Edge)

C. By all means, lets spend our Cap if we can.  On young players with big impact only.  If we can get an Edge and CB in Free Agency, great. And yes, go for Robinson if we can, but don't hold you breath.  Personally, I focus on Defense with the Cap Space, and Offense with the Draft (primarily).

D. Camp 2021, Open Competition at QB:  Darnold, Trask, Morgan.  No old men, no castoff veterans, no expensive FA's on the downside of their career are invited.  If you are not under 25 years old, I don't want you in camp or on my team at QB.

Personally, I think a guy like Trask can (and would) beat our Sam Darnold in a fair open competition.  Low cost, low risk choice, productive as hell in college, and now surrounded by young talent on the O-line and at the Offensive skill positions.  I'd watch a Trask-Etienne-Perrine-2021WR#1, Mims, Crowder, 2021 WR#2-Herndon-Griffith Offense in 2021 and be ok with that.

 

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2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

perhaps.  but i would imagine that most gms would rather try to get darnold on the cheap or draft a qb in rounds 2-4 to groom.  

If you’re planning on using a second round pick on a QB, why not spend it on Darnold instead? I understand what you’re saying, but I think there are a number of GMs out there who had their own high grades on Darnold and believe him to be worthy of the reclamation. JD will get a number of inquiries. 

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3 minutes ago, slats said:

If you’re planning on using a second round pick on a QB, why not spend it on Darnold instead? I understand what you’re saying, but I think there are a number of GMs out there who had their own high grades on Darnold and believe him to be worthy of the reclamation. JD will get a number of inquiries. 

i think there will be a market for him.  and yes all it takes is one team to bite, like with adams.  it would have to be a team that has a good coaching staff and personnel in place so he doesn't flounder, maybe the steelers.  i like that landing spot for him.

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13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Frankly, IMO this is a horrible plan.

1. Yes, one spot CAN and often does make that kind of difference when we're talking about the QB position.  A clear-cut elite-prospect 1A is not the same as an also-ran secondary prospect 2B type.  You do not reach for a 2B just because you missed on the 1A.

2. Yes, Darnold is horrible.  It's not debatable.  He's also played for two of the worst Coaches in our history, with some of the weakest Offensive rosters in our history.  We simply have to look at the big picture, Darnold IS a problem, but so is everything else.  IF we must retain him another year (WITH competition, note), so be it.  

3. Use of your own prior poor judgement in re: Josh Allen is funny, since you could thus also be wrong about Darnold, and Wilson and Fields.  And IMO you're likely wrong about 'just picking a QB' no matter what at #2.  The entire plan reeks of desperation reactionary moves, not well considered, well evaluated, well planned out moves.  Just look at how you put it "properly evaluate then pull the trigger".  What if the evaluation proves out that they're 2B candidates?  

4. Your FA and draft plan is a nightmare.  It literally repeats the same mistakes we (and our fans) make every cycle.  First, we can't and won't just sign all the best Free Agents we want.  31 other teams will compete for them, and some have alot more to offer than the NY Jets do.  We'll be lucky to sign ONE prominent "name" Free Agent and very possibly could land none of them.  No Robinson.  No Thuny.  The Offense cannot be fixed via Free Agency alone. 

Same for the Draft Plan.  Goes defense at #1B and #2?  Insanity.  What is it with Jets Fans (and Coaches and GM's) obsession with Defense in an era literally dominated by Offensive Football?  This isn't 1960 or even 1985, you're simply not going to win a title with Defense.  In the modern NFL, the Defense needs to be just good enough to allow your Offense to win games.  And your Offense needs to score and score alot.

5. I will never understand how one can think two mutually exclusive things at the same time:  i.e. Either Darnold sucks and needs dumped OR he's a valuable asset worth someone giving us a #2 pick for him so they can start him.  It cannot be both things.

Let me counter with an alternate plan:

A. Sam Darnold is retained for his fourth season.

B. The Jets Draft:

--the elite O-line Prospect Sewell at #1A. O-line is the foundation upon which I build my team.  This locks down both Tackles for a decade (and yes, I'm HAPPY to pay both if both pan out).
--the best possible WR prospect at #1B.  There will be a few at that spot worthy of a #1 WR role.
--Travis Etienne (RB) at #2.  A legit playmaker at RB.
--Second Tier QB prospect like Trask from Florida at #3A.  Sleeper pick of my Draft.
--the best possible Center prospect at #3B.
--Defense or Oline depth the rest of the way as needed (CB & Edge)

C. By all means, lets spend our Cap if we can.  On young players with big impact only.  If we can get an Edge and CB in Free Agency, great. And yes, go for Robinson if we can, but don't hold you breath.  Personally, I focus on Defense with the Cap Space, and Offense with the Draft (primarily).

D. Camp 2021, Open Competition at QB:  Darnold, Trask, Morgan.  No old men, no castoff veterans, no expensive FA's on the downside of their career are invited.  If you are not under 25 years old, I don't want you in camp or on my team at QB.

Personally, I think a guy like Trask can (and would) beat our Sam Darnold in a fair open competition.  Low cost, low risk choice, productive as hell in college, and now surrounded by young talent on the O-line and at the Offensive skill positions.  I'd watch a Trask-Etienne-Perrine-2021WR#1, Mims, Crowder, 2021 WR#2-Herndon-Griffith Offense in 2021 and be ok with that.

 

I agree with all of this except spending all the cap money.

Free agency is always fools gold. It's fine to accentuate a stocked roster, which we are not. If Darnold is the plan for next year, then all eyes are on the 2022 season. Don't lock yourselves into marginal guys with big contracts when you don't even know what the QB situation looks like yet. Odds are high that Darnold will fail again next year, but with no obvious young replacement, he gets 1 more year to turn it around under a new staff. But again, build up around that position with youth and in 2022 you're going to need to come up with something there. 

It's just extremely unlikely you're going to sign any young players of value in free agency. Keep trading for draft picks if we have to. 

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All three picks need to be offense and none should be quarterback. 

We have, by far, the worst situation for a quarterback in the league. Most quarterbacks are products of their system and players around them.

Why the F is Godwin or Allen Robinson going to want to come here anymore? Maybe if we had TL, sure, but that’s not the case. Same thing with top tier coaches. Money? How much more money do we need to spend on those guys than say... the Chargers or now the Trevor Lawrence Jaguars? 

Our only way out of this mess is improving the roster enough, specifically on offense, so that the guy after Darnold doesn’t fall flat on his face. 

Justin Fields and two defensive players!? WTF

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Take whichever QB Douglas likes the most (prefer Wilson).

Who cares if they arent generational shoe ins to be good. None of the top guys in the league right now were perfect prospects. We dont want to repeat our mistakes. 

We've passed on QBs before that had extremely high ceilings, but had some question marks in their game. We took the safe option instead when that happened, and those two QBs we passed on were Mahomes and Watson. 

This is the modern day norm. You take a chance on a high-ceiling physical talent in the QB position and you coach out what needs to be fixed. And you keep trying.

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1 hour ago, choon328 said:

Wilson will separate himself at the combine, if he throws there.

I just don't see that . Throwing at the combine proves nothing. Both have strong arms , its game situations to see how players react to different defenses which will probably be the determining factor between them. I also feel the interviews with these are more important than combine testing .

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3 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Take whichever QB Douglas likes the most (prefer Wilson).

Who cares if they arent generational shoe ins to be good. None of the top guys in the league right now were perfect prospects. We dont want to repeat our mistakes. 

We've passed on QBs before that had extremely high ceilings, but had some question marks in their game. We took the safe option instead when that happened, and those two QBs we passed on were Mahomes and Watson. 

This is the modern day norm. You take a chance on a high-ceiling physical talent in the QB position and you coach out what needs to be fixed. And you keep trying.

i agree and josh allen is the perfect example of this.  if you like a guy and understand how to put him in the right system and surround him with good players, that's better than finding a great prospect and allowing his talent to rot on a bad team with bad coaching.  

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1 hour ago, genot said:

Hey man. Look. I respect everybody's views here.Obviously yours too. I just think your wrong about Sam. He's been continuously put in a bad position that made it difficult for him to be comfortable and grow in the position.I have faith in Douglas. I believe he see' s the same thing, and this off season he fixes the things that have held Darnold back. 

QB ?🤣

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7 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

I just don't see that . Throwing at the combine proves nothing. Both have strong arms , its game situations to see how players react to different defenses which will probably be the determining factor between them. I also feel the interviews with these are more important than combine testing .

Fields can't read the whole field. That was made obvious last game. 

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2 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Fields can't read the whole field. That was made obvious last game. 

Reading way too much into one game against a quality defense. Is Fields perfect - no, but neither is Wilson . Put Wilson or even Lawrence against that NW D and game plan they deployed and we'd be making excuses for Trevor and Zach.  Luckily most scouts and GM's aren't that lazy they will look at a players overall package to evaluate a players worth. 

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6 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Reading way too much into one game against a quality defense. Is Fields perfect - no, but neither is Wilson . Put Wilson or even Lawrence against that NW D and game plan they deployed and we'd be making excuses for Trevor and Zach.  Luckily most scouts and GM's aren't that lazy they will look at a players overall package to evaluate a players worth. 

Wilson has better arm talent.  That's not saying i don't like Fields bc I do.  I just think Wilson has a bigger upside. If you draft Fields you need a very specific offense for him to run in order to maximize his talents. That is fine but the entire FA strategy would have to change. Bc in order for that run first strategy to work you need a dominant defense. So that means the bulk of FA money and the draft would have to be used to improve this defense by leaps and bounds. A run first offense with a bad defense is a recipe for disaster. 

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I believe JD will be offered one of the biggest hauls in history by some team wanting to move up to the 2nd spot.  It will be a deal he can't refuse. This is what's going to happen. Look to pick between 5-15. 
Unfortunately I can see Darnold coming back along with a veteran like Dalton, Rivers, Winston, etc. 
or maybe Joe trades for a guy like Jordan Love in Green Bay( highly unlikely). 
Or maybe they have the best kept secret in the world and Morgan is our future HOF QB. ( this would be sweet).  Again none of this even matters until they get a competent coach. I believe trading down (maybe twice) is the right move. Next four months will feel like eternity. 
The only person in this organization I have faith in is Joe Douglas. Just my opinion fire away. 

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It's not about 1 draft spot....it's about the quality of player that 1 spot results in.

If JD thinks Feilds/Wilson are not better than Darnold with a better cast around them, you don't draft Fields/Wilson.

It's not about the spot...it's the player at that spot and what JD thinks about them.

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4 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Wilson has better arm talent.  That's not saying i don't like Fields bc I do.  I just think Wilson has a bigger upside. If you draft Fields you need a very specific offense for him to run in order to maximize his talents. That is fine but the entire FA strategy would have to change. Bc in order for that run first strategy to work you need a dominant defense. So that means the bulk of FA money and the draft would have to be used to improve this defense by leaps and bounds. A run first offense with a bad defense is a recipe for disaster. 

We'll disagree on what type of QB Fields is  , he is very much capable of being a pocket passer who can run. The offense doesn't have to shift to an RPO style offense. Think Lamar Jackson with better accuracy or a Russell Wilson type of QB . 

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2 hours ago, KRL said:

I've been totally "wishy-washy" about whether to bring Darnold back or to move on.
But in this post I'm going to say move on.  Why?  Because one draft spot shouldn't
change the evaluation of Darnold's performance.  If we got the #1 spot Douglas would've
put Darnold on the market immediately, no questions asked.  Should being in the #2 spot
change his thought process that drastically?  Granted there's a "perceived" difference
between Lawrence and Fields or Wilson (we'll see) but there's no difference in Darnold's
performance.  He's been uneven and below average no matter what our draft position is.
I say re-start the "QB $$$ clock" and use what BUF did with Josh Allen as our model to
reset the QB position.  In 2018 there is no QB I wanted less than Josh Allen, he was a
physical freak who had poor accuracy and "wet the bed" against decent competition.  In
3 years a good offensive staff has grown Allen in every facet of QB play until he's now
a legitimate MVP candidate.  You could've never convinced me that Allen would ever be a
QB that could complete 68% of his passes:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

So I'm going to put the pressure on Douglas and his staff to:

- Find the right HC with an innovative offensive staff who has a real plan to grow a QB
- Properly evaluate Fields and Wilson and pull the trigger

My general off-season plan would be:

- Trade Darnold for a #3 hopefully a #2
- In free agency sign a G (Thuney?), WR (Robinson/Godwin?) and Edge (Judon?)   
- In the draft:
  #1 - Fields or Wilson
  #1 - BPA CB or Edge
  #2 - BPA CB or Edge (whatever we don't pick with our second #1)
  #3 - BPA WR
  #3 - BPA OL
  #3 - BPA RB  

My 2 cents until I probably change my mind

Agree with taking the QB, but no with the 2 picks after that. If you take a QB don't make the mistake of not developing the offense as well. I am taking OL, RB, WR and TE at a minimum by the end of the 3rd and spending the 2nd one and 2nd pick in the 2nd on offense.

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2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I agree, without question, we're taking a QB.

I think it would be insane to do that and then go out and take defense with the next two premium picks.  It would be full-on dereliction of duties.

Both of those picks need...I repeat NEED to be offense or JD should be fired on the spot.

We need a CB with a top pick if possible since we are probably more at risk there than any other position group.

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26 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

Reach for a QB, then defense with our next two picks? I can’t express how much I dislike that scenario. That’s a recipe for a 4-12 season. And Douglas getting the axe, which would be very much deserved. 

The Jets do tend to repeat the same mistakes.

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2 hours ago, genot said:

Lol. With respect. But still. Lol. Allen elevated his game at the same time Cole Beasley and Stephan Diggs arrived. Coincidence. Hell no. These guys run great routes, get open, and catch the ball. Without that, a young QB, tries to play hero, and forces the issue. Of course the playcalling makes a difference too. Mcdermott vs Gase. No contest.

That right there is what led to many of Sam's mistakes trying to make something out of nothing.. Good post:beer:

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2 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Trade Sam, sign Dalton as a FA and draft Fields or Wilson at 2. Let the FA start the season.

I like this.  Dalton or Winston.   I like Fields better but this is the strategy.  Let a crafty vet take the initial bullets for the first half of the season, if you hit lightening in the bottle, ride them for a year and let the kid sit. 

Use the the next 3 picks on; IOL, WR, RB  Sign Robinson or JuJu and Ertz or Henry and Thuney.  

Offense fixed.

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As I've said before, Darnold is NOT the problem; the team has no wide receivers, no RB, a crap OL, and one of the worst NFL coachers, ever - you could have stuck Montana or Marino in at QB and it would not have mattered.

Until SD has quality around him, you cannot claim with certainty that he sucks. I do not get how people can be so hard on a guy who has had NOTHING from the GM on down to work with.

They have massive holes across the roster, and until those are addressed they will continue to suck. I am still furious they won two meaningless games to lose out on the #1 pick - but with that they should swap the #2 for a slew of picks and rebuild the offense into a functional unit.

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

I like this.  Dalton or Winston.   I like Fields better but this is the strategy.  Let a crafty vet take the initial bullets for the first half of the season, if you hit lightening in the bottle, ride them for a year and let the kid sit. 

Use the the next 3 picks on; IOL, WR, RB  Sign Robinson or JuJu and Ertz or Henry and Thuney.  

Offense fixed.

Yep. We finally have a chance to pair a rookie QB and new HC together from the start. Keep him in the same system from year 1 to 2. Just let him learn as much as he can. 
Let the veteran keep this team respectable and let it ride. You have a chance to actually develop a team the right away. No need to get cute. 

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