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My QB Plan (For Today At Least)


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I've been totally "wishy-washy" about whether to bring Darnold back or to move on. But in this post I'm going to say move on.  Why?  Because one draft spot shouldn't change the evaluation of Darno

I agree, without question, we're taking a QB. I think it would be insane to do that and then go out and take defense with the next two premium picks.  It would be full-on dereliction of duties.

I don’t disagree. The move here is to take Fields who is an elite top tier athlete like Allen. Built like a tank, Cannon, accurate, 4.4 speed, elusive. The guy has a higher QBR than TL for Christ

8 hours ago, JiF said:

I like this.  Dalton or Winston.   I like Fields better but this is the strategy.  Let a crafty vet take the initial bullets for the first half of the season, if you hit lightening in the bottle, ride them for a year and let the kid sit. 

Use the the next 3 picks on; IOL, WR, RB  Sign Robinson or JuJu and Ertz or Henry and Thuney.  

Offense fixed.

Agreed. Also, I like trading back, but the Jets are already loaded with picks and cap space over the next 2 seasons. How many more draft picks are they planning on accumulating? I'm going to keep repeating this,  just pick Fields, don't over think it. 

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31 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Agreed. Also, I like trading back, but the Jets are already loaded with picks and cap space over the next 2 seasons. How many more draft picks are they planning on accumulating? I'm going to keep repeating this,  just pick Fields, don't over think it. 

No bench for #2 overall. Throw him in. Let him take his lumps. If he stinks have the stones to pull an Arizona.

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12 hours ago, KRL said:

If we got the #1 spot Douglas would've
put Darnold on the market immediately, no questions asked.  Should being in the #2 spot
change his thought process that drastically?

Yes

If you buy in that T Lawrence is a generational type QB of course you move on.   If you think the drop down after TL leaves you with QBs who are comparable or less talented than Darnold why would you move on?  

Especially given the 2nd position you could use the #2 to fill a position like T for 10 years or trade out and fit a number of positions.  Its going to totally depend on what JD thinks of Sam and the #2 QBs on his list.  

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If JD passes on a QB at 2 that ends up like another Josh Allen, Watson or even Herbert, and misses drafting a QB that good, he will and should be pilloried.  

Even if the QB he can draft at 2 is as good as Darnold (who is better than he looks because of coaching/players, but still not great), that QB is still cheaper over 4 years than a FA would be, and cheaper than extending Darnold.  

I can't believe that one or more of Wilson, Fields, Trask and/or Lance can't be coached and supported to be a better QB than Darnold will be over the next 4 years.  

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13 hours ago, slats said:

If I can't get a second round pick or better for Darnold, I'd carry him into training camp (or into the season if need be) with an eye towards trading him before the deadline. 

If they have Fields and Wilson that close, make that trade work with Cincy and get the #5 pick, their second rounder, and their first in 2022, and then take your choice of the two or whoever's left. Don't see three QBs going in the top four this year. 

 

12 hours ago, jgb said:

His value — such as it is at this point — drops like a stone once training camps start. Makes no sense to keep him and try to trade him mid-season. That’s a “worst of both worlds” scenario.

 

Yep.  And sacrificing 2021 pick(s) to instead settle for 2022 pick(s) is a non-starter there for me as well.

Any alternative to trading Darnold for 2021 pick(s) makes no sense whatsoever to me.  He's not the guy, so get something while you can.  

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12 hours ago, slats said:

I think they’ll get a second or better if they put him on the market. His value to the league is still higher than it is on this board, especially those rushing to be right about players sucking. 
 
But if they don’t get that, he’ll retain that value and it could go up rather quickly if another team lost their starter. 

Any team trading for him, even one with an injured starter, would be getting a less than 1-year rental.  Many teams who lose their starters are usually fine to go with someone already on their roster.  Certainly they tend to like that option more than giving up draft capital to get one who would have to spend several weeks learning the system.  

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12 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean that a team will be willing to dole out multiple high draft picks for him.  

Especially since Darnold is likely labeled as a "project" around the league.  He has to unlearn his mental mistakes and be rebuilt.  You need a guy like that to be there during training camp.  You don't trade for that guy midseason.  Especially since he's due to hit free agency.  The juice just wouldn't be worth the squeeze in that scenario.

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Saying that you would never have believed where Josh Allen is now versus 2018, with a good situation, isn't an avocation for sticking with Darold based on the situation he has had?  (FTR, I'm not advocating one way or another).

Granted, there is a reset in $Qb, as you stated.

I do not know enough about how the front office views Darnold, nor any Qb in the draft.  I do know that the Jets are in a great spot to increase overall roster talent.  

I love the idea of building a roster, potentially finding a Trask or the like with our second round pick to develop for a year or two behind Darnold or a stop gap FA.

For the first time in a long time, I am excited for what the future may hold for the Jets.

Significant Cap Space and Draft Capital and possibly doing a HC search the right way (GM conducted)

Don't screw it up Joe.  Has any GM been in this position for the Jets?  

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The problem with drafting a QB now is that you're potentially getting a QB who also isn't the answer, but you're additionally wasting the second overall pick as well. If, instead, you give Darnold one more chance, you can at least draft Sewell. Either Darnold turns it around (best case), or he sucks and we draft high again. Or we could draft Sewell/trade down AND trade Sam, and then build a team first, THEN worry about QB. 

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8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Yep.  And sacrificing 2021 pick(s) to instead settle for 2022 pick(s) is a non-starter there for me as well.

Any alternative to trading Darnold for 2021 pick(s) makes no sense whatsoever to me.  He's not the guy, so get something while you can.  

All of the opinions that don't related to drafting a QB with our top pick -- draft an OL, draft down, hang onto Darnold until mid-season -- they are all just different ways of expressing hope in Darnold. People really want him to work out. I mean yeah, I'd love it if he became the #1 QB turnaround story in NFL history -- because that's what it would take, at this point. But JD is a terrible GM if that's his strategy -- wait/pray for an unprecedented turnaround.

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34 minutes ago, jgb said:

All of the opinions that don't related to drafting a QB with our top pick -- draft an OL, draft down, hang onto Darnold until mid-season -- they are all just different ways of expressing hope in Darnold. People really want him to work out. I mean yeah, I'd love it if he became the #1 QB turnaround story in NFL history -- because that's what it would take, at this point. But JD is a terrible GM if that's his strategy -- wait/pray for an unprecedented turnaround.

No, it's based more on the fact that all of these QBs after Lawrence all have some significant flaws/question marks, and might not be worth the #2 pick in the draft. If Joe Douglas -or his new head coach- doesn't love a QB, he'd be a terrible GM to take one at #2, basically bowing to pressure against his better judgement. That #2 is a valuable commodity that I would prefer to see maximized. Drafting another project QB who doesn't work out there fails to accomplish that. Now, trading back to #5 and adding a second rounder this year and another first rounder in 2022 (making it three) before pulling the trigger on a QB is significantly greater value. 

Take Darnold out of the equation. I expect JD to be able to get at least a second round pick for him if he opts to trade him. There will be a market. I think the problem is that he'll want to play some poker with that #2 pick, and trading Darnold before the draft (when he'd maximize his value) would tip his hand even further, as most teams expect the Jets to target a QB. I think he'd need to also sign a legitimate starter to keep up the guessing at #2, but I'd like him to do that, anyway. 

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

All of the opinions that don't related to drafting a QB with our top pick -- draft an OL, draft down, hang onto Darnold until mid-season -- they are all just different ways of expressing hope in Darnold. People really want him to work out. I mean yeah, I'd love it if he became the #1 QB turnaround story in NFL history -- because that's what it would take, at this point. But JD is a terrible GM if that's his strategy -- wait/pray for an unprecedented turnaround.

No it isn't.  I could just as easily say every opinion like yours is ignoring the fact that it's not about saving Darnold just because you dislike him so much.  Whether you or anyone else wants to agree, there is a very reasonable thought process to keeping Sam Darnold for 1 more year that has nothing to do with keeping Darnold past that.

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7 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

No it isn't.  I could just as easily say every opinion like yours is ignoring the fact that it's not about saving Darnold just because you dislike him so much.  Whether you or anyone else wants to agree, there is a very reasonable thought process to keeping Sam Darnold for 1 more year that has nothing to do with keeping Darnold past that.

Too many people here in a rush to make black & white, simple cases for a much more nuanced issue. It's just easy to say, "he sucks," and then collect rep. 

Darnold's future on the team will be based on Douglas' evaluation of Sam vs. the QBs coming out. It will be weighed using Sam's trade value vs. the trade value of the #2 pick. On the availability of a veteran replacement. And, perhaps most importantly, what the next head coach wants to do at the position. There's a lot at play, and JD needs to get it as close to right as possible. 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

Too many people here in a rush to make black & white, simple cases for a much more nuanced issue. It's just easy to say, "he sucks," and then collect rep. 

Darnold's future on the team will be based on Douglas' evaluation of Sam vs. the QBs coming out. It will be weighed using Sam's trade value vs. the trade value of the #2 pick. On the availability of a veteran replacement. And, perhaps most importantly, what the next head coach wants to do at the position. There's a lot at play, and JD needs to get it as close to right as possible. 

Agreed.  Without seeing what this coaching staff looks like makes it difficult to predict the QB.  Also, if JD takes a QB at 2, then he better be 100% convinced he can be the guy, otherwise tying your tenure to that kid would be foolish.  Douglas has an opportunity to slow play the QB situation for another year.  He has Sam, he has Morgan, who he must have liked somewhat to spend a 4th round pick on, and he has the opportunity to bring in a starting caliber vet.   Right now I tend to think he will slow play this for a year and not fire his shot at one of these QBs at 2.  

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3 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  Without seeing what this coaching staff looks like makes it difficult to predict the QB.  Also, if JD takes a QB at 2, then he better be 100% convinced he can be the guy, otherwise tying your tenure to that kid would be foolish.  Douglas has an opportunity to slow play the QB situation for another year.  He has Sam, he has Morgan, who he must have liked somewhat to spend a 4th round pick on, and he has the opportunity to bring in a starting caliber vet.   Right now I tend to think he will slow play this for a year and not fire his shot at one of these QBs at 2.  

The bold is a critical item that seems to be completely lost by the, "the only move is to take a QB at #2," crowd. It's not like this upcoming draft had two great QB prospects battling for the #1 spot, it's Lawrence and a series of question marks. 

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23 hours ago, KRL said:

I've been totally "wishy-washy" about whether to bring Darnold back or to move on.
But in this post I'm going to say move on.  Why?  Because one draft spot shouldn't
change the evaluation of Darnold's performance.  If we got the #1 spot Douglas would've
put Darnold on the market immediately, no questions asked.  Should being in the #2 spot
change his thought process that drastically?  Granted there's a "perceived" difference
between Lawrence and Fields or Wilson (we'll see) but there's no difference in Darnold's
performance.  He's been uneven and below average no matter what our draft position is.
I say re-start the "QB $$$ clock" and use what BUF did with Josh Allen as our model to
reset the QB position.  In 2018 there is no QB I wanted less than Josh Allen, he was a
physical freak who had poor accuracy and "wet the bed" against decent competition.  In
3 years a good offensive staff has grown Allen in every facet of QB play until he's now
a legitimate MVP candidate.  You could've never convinced me that Allen would ever be a
QB that could complete 68% of his passes:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

So I'm going to put the pressure on Douglas and his staff to:

- Find the right HC with an innovative offensive staff who has a real plan to grow a QB
- Properly evaluate Fields and Wilson and pull the trigger

My general off-season plan would be:

- Trade Darnold for a #3 hopefully a #2
- In free agency sign a G (Thuney?), WR (Robinson/Godwin?) and Edge (Judon?)   
- In the draft:
  #1 - Fields or Wilson
  #1 - BPA CB or Edge
  #2 - BPA CB or Edge (whatever we don't pick with our second #1)
  #3 - BPA WR
  #3 - BPA OL
  #3 - BPA RB  

My 2 cents until I probably change my mind

If your gonna go QB at it should be Trey Lance.

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6 minutes ago, slats said:

The bold is a critical item that seems to be completely lost by the, "the only move is to take a QB at #2," crowd. It's not like this upcoming draft had two great QB prospects battling for the #1 spot, it's Lawrence and a series of question marks. 

And lets not forget the last 2 great QB prospects to battle for the #1 spot were mariota and winston. Don’t buy into the QB hype. Rookie QBs are not saviors. You need a talented team and a great HC to leverage a rookie QBs success.

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9 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  Without seeing what this coaching staff looks like makes it difficult to predict the QB.  Also, if JD takes a QB at 2, then he better be 100% convinced he can be the guy, otherwise tying your tenure to that kid would be foolish.  Douglas has an opportunity to slow play the QB situation for another year.  He has Sam, he has Morgan, who he must have liked somewhat to spend a 4th round pick on, and he has the opportunity to bring in a starting caliber vet.   Right now I tend to think he will slow play this for a year and not fire his shot at one of these QBs at 2.  

I think that’s plan A right now.  Of course if march rolls around and the conclusion that douglas comes to is that one of the other qbs is legit at 2, then he’ll have a heck of a decision to make.  And i think there will be a lukewarm market for darnold, who has 2 years of mostly bad tape with gase and lots of bad habits to fix.  I think there’s only a handful of teams that have the structure in place and an established starter who would be willing to trade for him with the intent of reprogramming him.  

Also part of plan A is to trade back and extract as much draft capital for the 2 pick.  To do this, it would help to trade darnold so it appears the jets are truly intent on taking a qb at 2, and talking up all the qbs so that teams like Carolina and atlanta panic.  If they keep darnold, teams will be far less believing that douglas would take Wilson or fields at 2.  

My prediction is that darnold gets traded to the Steelers, which would be a good landing spot for him.  I ultimately think atlanta or Carolina will trade up for fields.  Assuming the dolphins take Sewell at 3, if the jets trade back to 4 they’ll still be able to get a qb if they want there.

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Lol. With respect. But still. Lol. Allen elevated his game at the same time Cole Beasley and Stephan Diggs arrived. Coincidence. Hell no. These guys run great routes, get open, and catch the ball. Without that, a young QB, tries to play hero, and forces the issue. Of course the playcalling makes a difference too. Mcdermott vs Gase. No contest.

Amazing how much time Allen has to throw the damn ball!


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1 minute ago, Jetmech said:


Oh I agree but it’s funny how they throw hyperbole all over meanwhile he has insane amount of time to throw.


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It must be nice to have that kind of time and those receivers. Good news is we' re in a position to really improve our talent level this off season. We' re getting close to being a top flight defense. We need to go all out in free agency and get one of those top receivers

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17 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

So here's the deal with that -

If you take the QB at 2 or 15.  If he hits you'll be quite happy you spent a second on him.

If he misses you're back to picking in the top 5 again in 4 years anyway.  Regardless of where you're taking him.

 

this feels more like a semantic or philosophical argument rather than a sound way to build a program

heres my view and I know people disagree: 

  • there are no shortcuts
  • the draft is important - it's also a crapshoot
  • free agency is garbage for a team like NYJ who only attracts mercenaries 
  • there is no such thing as the tank in the NFL
  • there's no such thing as a multi-year rebuild in the NFL
  • there are no such things as meaningless wins or good losses 
  • it's not the player it's the program

every move, every trade, FA signing, HC hire, draft pick should be toward building the program

one young player isn't going to change the program measurably, even if he plays QB. that dude could get steamrolled very easily 

they don't have the infrastructure to support Sam why did anyone believe they'd get enough to support TL ?

it's buying powerball tickets instead of putting it in the bank 

 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this feels more like a semantic or philosophical argument rather than a sound way to build a program

heres my view and I know people disagree: 

  • there are no shortcuts
  • the draft is important - it's also a crapshoot
  • free agency is garbage for a team like NYJ who only attracts mercenaries 
  • there is no such thing as the tank in the NFL
  • there's no such thing as a multi-year rebuild in the NFL
  • there are no such things as meaningless wins or good losses 
  • it's not the player it's the program

every move, every trade, FA signing, HC hire, draft pick should be toward building the program

one young player isn't going to change the program measurably, even if he plays QB. that dude could get steamrolled very easily 

they don't have the infrastructure to support Sam why did anyone believe they'd get enough to support TL ?

it's buying powerball tickets instead of putting it in the bank 

 

No. It's buying powerball tickets instead of just lighting the money on fire.

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this feels more like a semantic or philosophical argument rather than a sound way to build a program

heres my view and I know people disagree: 

  • there are no shortcuts
  • the draft is important - it's also a crapshoot
  • free agency is garbage for a team like NYJ who only attracts mercenaries 
  • there is no such thing as the tank in the NFL
  • there's no such thing as a multi-year rebuild in the NFL
  • there are no such things as meaningless wins or good losses 
  • it's not the player it's the program

every move, every trade, FA signing, HC hire, draft pick should be toward building the program

one young player isn't going to change the program measurably, even if he plays QB. that dude could get steamrolled very easily 

they don't have the infrastructure to support Sam why did anyone believe they'd get enough to support TL ?

it's buying powerball tickets instead of putting it in the bank 

 

To be fair, this post should be on the Jags site as well. Probably a bigger piece of sh*t place to play than the Jets.

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6 minutes ago, section314 said:

To be fair, this post should be on the Jags site as well. Probably a bigger piece of sh*t place to play than the Jets.

i honestly don't agree

go position by position on offense except for Becton they are better across the board

WR would you rather have DJ Chark, Lavaska Schnault Jr and Keenan Cole or Crowder/Mims/Perriman?  

RB james robinson or ty johnson/gore

TE Tyler Eifert or Chris Herndon 

LT Becton over Cam Robinson 

LG Andrew Norwell big upgrade over Pat Elflein

C Brandon Linder is better than Connor McGovern

RG AJ Cann is better than no one (GVR on IR, Andrews, Conor McDermott?) 

RT Jawaan Taylor WAY better than Fant 

 

there's one spot where the Jags offense needs a player it's QB

the jets need players at WR, RB, TE and 3/4 OL positions depending on how we feel about McGovern 

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5 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

No it isn't.  I could just as easily say every opinion like yours is ignoring the fact that it's not about saving Darnold just because you dislike him so much.  Whether you or anyone else wants to agree, there is a very reasonable thought process to keeping Sam Darnold for 1 more year that has nothing to do with keeping Darnold past that.

I don't dislike Darnold. I think he's a bad QB and will be expensive soon. Drafting #2 in draft is very rare even for a perennially bad team like the Jets. If you're not drafting a QB now -- when?

5 hours ago, slats said:

Too many people here in a rush to make black & white, simple cases for a much more nuanced issue. It's just easy to say, "he sucks," and then collect rep. 

Darnold's future on the team will be based on Douglas' evaluation of Sam vs. the QBs coming out. It will be weighed using Sam's trade value vs. the trade value of the #2 pick. On the availability of a veteran replacement. And, perhaps most importantly, what the next head coach wants to do at the position. There's a lot at play, and JD needs to get it as close to right as possible. 

Evaluating Sam as a bad QB after 3 years of league-worst starter performance is only "rushing" if you work for the DMV.

It was worth being patient the last 3 years despite mounting evidence that he was not a good player due to his contract. Now, it's an inflection point: trade him this off-season or get nothing for him before he hits FA. The NPV of Darnold has now plummeted far below his trade value. And when he fails again in 2021 -- 99% he will -- it's very unlikely you're drafting top 2 in the draft.

It's not emotional -- it's logic and economics. I'm confident JD will see it my way -- an easy bet especially when considered that he didn't draft Darnold. Otherwise I will have no choice but to consider whether my hope in JD is misplaced.

I think we agree that if JD can get a 2nd rounder for Darnold he does it in any circumstance. I happen to think he won't get that, but I do hope you are right.

And by the way, it’s only “collecting rep” when everyone finally admits I was right all along. Up to that point it’s butt fumble city.

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

this feels more like a semantic or philosophical argument rather than a sound way to build a program

heres my view and I know people disagree: 

  • there are no shortcuts
  • the draft is important - it's also a crapshoot
  • free agency is garbage for a team like NYJ who only attracts mercenaries 
  • there is no such thing as the tank in the NFL
  • there's no such thing as a multi-year rebuild in the NFL
  • there are no such things as meaningless wins or good losses 
  • it's not the player it's the program

every move, every trade, FA signing, HC hire, draft pick should be toward building the program

one young player isn't going to change the program measurably, even if he plays QB. that dude could get steamrolled very easily 

they don't have the infrastructure to support Sam why did anyone believe they'd get enough to support TL ?

it's buying powerball tickets instead of putting it in the bank 

 

I mean, I’m not suggesting they move up.  I’m just suggesting not to trade down.

If you feel you can take a QB you like instead of whatever one falls to you - and not trade down and pick up a 2nd rounder...then so be it.,  But the Jets have draft assets this year and next year (they’re not desperate for draft resources) they have some young talent...what they don’t have is a QB.

Sure if you have 3 or 4 QB’s ranked the same, maybe you wait, but that won’t be the case...they’ll fall in love with one of them and they should take him at #2.  You make it seem like I’m advocating for some suicide plan like trading our whole draft to move up.  Jeeze we already have 3 picks in the top 34...5 in the top 100 (that’s without trading Sam)  Get the QB you like.

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14 hours ago, PCP63 said:

The problem with drafting a QB now is that you're potentially getting a QB who also isn't the answer, but you're additionally wasting the second overall pick as well. If, instead, you give Darnold one more chance, you can at least draft Sewell. Either Darnold turns it around (best case), or he sucks and we draft high again. Or we could draft Sewell/trade down AND trade Sam, and then build a team first, THEN worry about QB. 

They have many picks ,a boatload of $$ and an easier schedule from finishing last . Even with Darnold the Jets won't be drafting high again , most likely mid pack . Then you'll need to throw away 2022/2023 assets to find a QB  or even worse extending Sam when if you picked one in 2021, 2022/2023 could be spent plugging smaller holes. 

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