What You Can Get With the #2 Pick

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You know as well as anyone how wrong we can all be on QB prospects.  Let's say the pre-draft process plays out and Fields is determined to be a very good QB prospect.  Not generational, not elite, but very good.  Do you still pass on him in that instance?

No, I would take him if it was determined that we like him and want to him with him. But that has to be a strong feeling of confidence- not driven by the desire to jettison Sam into space 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A young QB can still be good in a bad situation.  Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray are great examples of this.  And no, Kyler Murray didn't have DeAndre Hopkins in his rookie year if that's your next point.  

Meanwhile, we have tons of picks and cap space to simultaneously build around said young QB.  If Joe Douglas is any good at his job, he can support the new QB just fine.  And we'll also be amazed at how much better the roster looks when we get a competent HC.  

If Douglas really doesn't like any of the QB prospects available to him, fine, then trade down.  But if he likes one but passes because the roster isn't good enough yet, that's a terrible decision.  Kicking the can down the road at QB makes absolutely no sense.

Plus I think the roster situation - particularly on offense - won't have to be as bad next year as it was this year.

• 2 starting rookies won't be rookies (Becton, Mims)
• Hopefully JD will make appropriate offers to a premiere WR1
• Sign at least 1 FA OLman (prefer two, though). McGovern is locked in for 2021, whether at center or guard. But his 2nd half was nowhere near as bad as his start
• Draft another OLman
• RB - I'd draft one (though certainly not at #2)
• TE...I'm not thrilled with our duo but if the rest of the above falls in right then it's a position that can wait a year without screams & fears of ruining a rookie QB.

Really it shouldn't be that bad, unless every good veteran FA turns us down. 

[Sonny Werblin]

40 minutes ago, peebag said:

great counterpoint.  So no one has said anything about the qb class?

Well there were 5 QBs in a supposedly deep QB class in the 2018 NFL Draft. If those results are any guide, stick with the QBs with otherworldly athletic skills and arm strength because all other breeds of QB are bound for failure. If that is any guide, 2021 is a QB class of 1.

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No, I would take him if it was determined that we like him and want to him with him. But that has to be a strong feeling of confidence- not driven by the desire to jettison Sam into space 

I think we should jettison Darnold regardless of who we end up with at QB.  But sadly Joe Douglas stopped taking my calls.

@Mogglez @football guy please assist.

[Jetsfan80]

21 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

This is because the theory of draft a QB until you have a QB is not applicable to every situation. A rookie cannot succeed with a flawed team, so if you draft a QB while your team is flawed you significantly degrade his chances of success. Once the team becomes a high functioning unit, by all means start drafting QBs until you land your guy, but wasting high picks to put a QB on a a crappy team is nonsense.

Good QB's can be good even in bad situations.  If Joe Douglas can't build around a young QB properly then this is all moot regardless; we'd be f**ked.  

You can't afford to kick the can down the road at QB until the circumstances are good.  Because by then it becomes harder to draft a top QB prospect without paying a premium to move up the board.  Like it or not, QB's at the top of the board are safer bets than guys taken outside of the top 5 or 10 pick slots.

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

You don't trade the 2nd overall pick when you need a QB in a draft that is suppose to be a good QB draft class.

If the Jets like a QB, they have to take him at 2. 

Just my opinion. 

This the success factor of other QBs at a given draft spot has no relation to the choice you make at #2. I have become convinced that picking a QB based on his skills as a bigger factor than success is the way to go. It's why I think Wilson is the guy. He has the best passing skills in the draft by a bit. I personally think Lawrence will struggle.

[UntouchableCrew]

3 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I think we have to swing for the fences. 

Yeah, most of these guys are overhyped and don't work out. The Jets know all about that. But we still need a good young QB if we are ever going to turn into a perennially good franchise. 

Draft a QB until you have a QB. 

This.

Jets swung for the fences with Mark Sanchez in 2009 and did it again in 2018 with Darnold, trading up to the top 5 for USC QBs. I didn't work out, so I get why fans might be gun shy.

But you know what else didn't work out? Playing it "safe" and conservative in the years in between, settling on no upside journeymen (Fitzpatrick and McCown) or 2nd round picks everyone passed on (Geno and Hackenberg.)

23 of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL this year were first round picks including 5 of the 6 Pro Bowlers. Fans crow about the Tom Brady's and Russell Wilsons but the reality is those guys are exceedingly rare.

Very few positions are worth the 2nd overall pick. If you need a QB in a strong QB draft it's hard to go another way.

[slimjasi]

Just now, UntouchableCrew said:

This.

Jets swung for the fences with Mark Sanchez in 2009 and did it again in 2018 with Darnold, trading up to the top 5 for USC QBs. I didn't work out, so I get why fans might be gun shy.

But you know what else didn't work out? Playing it "safe" and conservative in the years in between, settling on no upside journeymen (Fitzpatrick and McCown) or 2nd round picks everyone passed on (Geno and Hackenberg.)

23 of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL this year were first round picks including 5 of the 6 Pro Bowlers. Fans crow about the Tom Brady's and Russell Wilsons but the reality is those guys are exceedingly rare.

Very few positions are worth the 2nd overall pick. If you need a QB in a strong QB draft it's hard to go another way.

The bolded is an excellent point that should probably be stickied on the front page somewhere. 

Many people on this board seem to have no respect for the opportunity that is owning the #2 overall pick and needing a QB. 

[Sonny Werblin]

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Good QB's can be good even in bad situations.  If Joe Douglas can't build around a young QB properly then this is all moot regardless; we'd be f**ked.  

You can't afford to kick the can down the road at QB until the circumstances are good.  Because by then it becomes harder to draft a top QB prospect without paying a premium to move up the board.  Like it or not, QB's at the top of the board are safer bets than guys taken outside of the top 5 or 10 pick slots.

They can be, but why risk the draft capital on putting a rookie QB in a bad situation?

Why build around a young QB? Why not insert a young QB on a team that is already built?

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

What can we get with the #2 overall pick?

The same thing that the Rams got #1 overall back in 1997 of 23 years ago; a generational O-Linenan (who should've been a Jet). 

Ever since D'Brickishaw retired we haven't had a Franchise OT.

And now with Becton already in place? We can have two Franchise Bookend OT's;

with Penei Sewell @ LT because not only is he generational but he's MUCH BETTER than Becton is in pass protection (who's allowed 6-7 sacks this year because he's built and plays more like a road grader). 

If not for Trevor Lawrence? Penei Sewell would become the hands down #1 overall draft pick. 

It's not going to happen.

They're going to take a QB - if for some strange reason they don't - they trade out.

Sewell would be a luxury pick on a team that can't afford a luxury pick.

[Greensleeves]

3 hours ago, 20andOut said:

Historically the majority of Quarterbacks taken high in round 1 (or anywhere else in draft) are busts.

Historically the QBs that are taken in the first round are way more successful than any taken beyond the first round.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

They can be, but why risk the draft capital on putting a rookie QB in a bad situation?

Why build around a young QB? Why not insert a young QB on a team that is already built?

Because getting a legitimately good young QB is really hard so it's asking a lot to punt on a relatively rare opportunity (picking #2 overall) to draft one. 

I also question how bad of a situation this will be in a year or 2. If JD drafts well and hires a decent coach, I think people will be surprised how quickly we are just another average NFL team. 

Of course, if the Jets don't like any QBs in this draft, that's their prerogative. But all it takes is one of Fields, Wilson, or Lance to become a good pro for Douglas to look like a total idiot in 2-3 years. 

[56mehl56]

46 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Well there were 5 QBs in a supposedly deep QB class in the 2018 NFL Draft. If those results are any guide, stick with the QBs with otherworldly athletic skills and arm strength because all other breeds of QB are bound for failure. If that is any guide, 2021 is a QB class of 1.

Yes, the messiah is gone , now no other QB's matter . 

[20andOut]

4 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

Historically the QBs that are taken in the first round are way more successful than any taken beyond the first round.

No doubt. My point was that Quarterbacks are always high risk picks, even those considered top prospects and taken at the very top of the draft. Would be curious to see a breakdown of the success rate of QBs taken in the top 5 vs the rest of the first round.

[Sonny Werblin]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Because getting a legitimately good young QB is really hard so it's asking a lot to punt on a relatively rare opportunity (picking #2 overall) to draft one. 

I also question how bad of a situation this will be in a year or 2. If JD drafts well and hires a decent coach, I think people will be surprised how quickly we are just another average NFL team. 

Of course, if the Jets don't like any QBs in this draft, that's their prerogative. But all it takes is one of Fields, Wilson, or Lance to become a good pro for Douglas to look like a total idiot in 2-3 years. 

I understand your position. In my view good situations, make good QBs. But, there are those QBs that do come along that have so much talent that when you can get them, you pick them. This season, there is one and he will be going with the first pick. JD's opinion obviously counts more than any of ours, but I would be surprised if he thought the guys he could get at #2 are any different than QBs that will be available in the mid first round of future drafts and that such a QB can excel if placed on a talented team from day 1. And heck if Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Lance go in the first round than it is far less likely that the teams that draft them will be in the market for a QB in 2022. 

[Jetsfan4life90]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Robert Gallery was a can't miss OT, too. 

Sewell will likely end up very good.  Probably get to several Pro Bowls.  But he's not an absolute lock to become a HOF LT.  And even if he is, you still have to move Becton to RT.  That's not exactly a smart allocation of resources.  You absolutely should not need to spend a # 11 overall and a # 2 overall for a LT-RT combo.  

Not unprecedented. Douglas saw the Eagles have Jason Peters and Lane Johnson at the tackle spots. He's also someone that loves building a good O-line. Like it or not, Sewell is a strong possibility at #2

If Douglas doesn't like any of the QB's (sans Lawrence, who's gone at #1) at #2 and there's no good value in trading back, Sewell will more than likely be the #2 pick, and I'd be more than fine with that. Sewell at LT and Becton at RT (who long-term, might be better there anyway) would be among the best tackle combos in the league. 

[Jetsfan4life90]

14 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

It's not going to happen.

They're going to take a QB - if for some strange reason they don't - they trade out.

Sewell would be a luxury pick on a team that can't afford a luxury pick.

Except maybe JD doesn't like any of the other QB's from this draft, and maybe doesn't see the value in trading back from #2. 

Sewell is a strong possibility at #2. And he's not a luxury pick by any means. 

[Sonny Werblin]

9 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Yes, the messiah is gone , now no other QB's matter . 

They matter, but they are no better prospects than QBs which will be available in the middle of future first rounds. By all means, JD should pick one if he thinks he is "special". I just don't think any of them beyond Lawrence have special potential. That said, if put in the right situation they may do well even as rookies, but the Jets are not the right situation for any rookie QB to succeed in right now. They need a year or two of team building before you insert a rookie QB with any expectation of success.

[Embrace the Suck]

54 minutes ago, Paradis said:

not driven by the desire to jettison Sam into space 

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

They matter, but they are no better prospects than QBs which will be available in the middle of future first rounds. By all means, JD should pick one if he thinks he is "special". I just don't think any of them beyond Lawrence have special potential. That said, if put in the right situation they may do well even as rookies, but the Jets are not the right situation for any rookie QB to succeed in right now. They need a year or two of team building before you insert a rookie QB with any expectation of success.

The Jets in part are not in that right situation because they don't have a QB.  

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Except maybe JD doesn't like any of the other QB's from this draft, and maybe doesn't see the value in trading back from #2. 

Sewell is a strong possibility at #2. And he's not a luxury pick by any means. 

Drafting a LT in the 1st round when you drafted a LT in the first the year before is absolutely a luxury pick.  On a team lacking ANY talent at, literally, every other position than DT.  

It's almost certain to be a QB - with an outside shot at trading down.  it will not be a T...

[Greensleeves]

23 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

They can be, but why risk the draft capital on putting a rookie QB in a bad situation?

Why build around a young QB? Why not insert a young QB on a team that is already built?

With all of our picks and draft capital, most of our O-line in place, why would you think that is a bad situation? We'll sign a FA Guard, add a center perhaps in the draft, sign a #1 receiver or draft one. If we sign one maybe we draft another in the 2nd or 3rd round. Add a running back to go with Ty Johnson and Perine. How is that a bad situation? We could have one of the best lines in the league in a year or two. Plus, most other teams have no cap space. 

[Sonny Werblin]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

The Jets in part are not in that right situation because they don't have a QB.  

We can go back and forth for several messages, but lets just agree that we see things differently.

[Jetsfan4life90]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Drafting a LT in the 1st round when you drafted a LT in the first the year before is absolutely a luxury pick.  On a team lacking ANY talent at, literally, every other position than DT.  

It's almost certain to be a QB - with an outside shot at trading down.  it will not be a T...

Becton may be better at RT long-term. As much as you claim, Sewell is far from a luxury pick. O-line still needs work. 

Douglas is an o-line man, I can guarantee you he'll take a long look at Sewell with the 2nd pick. 

And this is assuming Douglas doesn't like any of the QB's aside from TLaw in this draft, and doesn't see enough value in trading back. If he likes a certain QB and believes he can be a franchise QB, then for sure it should be the pick at #2. 

[56mehl56]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Except maybe JD doesn't like any of the other QB's from this draft, and maybe doesn't see the value in trading back from #2. 

Sewell is a strong possibility at #2. And he's not a luxury pick by any means. 

Again for those fawning over Sewell and calling the QB's beyond Trevor reaches or risks . Consider this , Sewell hasn't played a snap of football since last year's bowl game. He's only played in 21 career college games missing 6 games in 2018 with a bad ankle , plus he tore his labrum in HS. How is he not also a risk at #2.  

[Sonny Werblin]

1 minute ago, Greensleeves said:

With all of our picks and draft capital, most of our O-line in place, why would you think that is a bad situation? We'll sign a FA Guard, add a center perhaps in the draft, sign a #1 receiver or draft one. If we sign one maybe we draft another in the 2nd or 3rd round. Add a running back to go with Ty Johnson and Perine. How is that a bad situation? We could have one of the best lines in the league in a year or two. Plus, most other teams have no cap space. 

Because they are all new. They are all learning. And the HC is new. Let all the newness wear off. Let the players become knowledgeable in how the NFL works and in how the new O scheme works. You can't be teaching everyone AND a rookie QB. Get everything working smoothly, then insert a rookie QB so that you are ONLY teaching him and the rest of the Offense runs like a well oiled machine.

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Becton may be better at RT long-term. As much as you claim, Sewell is far from a luxury pick. O-line still needs work. 

Douglas is an o-line man, I can guarantee you he'll take a long look at Sewell with the 2nd pick. 

And this is assuming Douglas doesn't like any of the QB's aside from TLaw in this draft, and doesn't see enough value in trading back. 

I'll give you this. Becton does seem to be a RT as he seems to have problems pass blocking.

But they're taking a QB.  

If you want to believe they'll take Sewell so be it, I won't argue you anymore.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, 56mehl56 said:

There are so few quality QB's that enter the draft each year. Its not like other positions where there's a surplus of quality players and gems you can find in later rounds . If there are QB's there at #2 that you think can be the next FQB you have to take them.  You are all saying its too risky to take a QB at #2 but many here want to take a Olineman that hasn't played football since Jan 2020 ,missed six games his Freshman year with a bad ankle injury and torn the labrum in one of shoulders in HS. , but hell he's a sure bet .  

To clarify, I am not saying it's too risky per se.

I am saying that the odds a Wilson or Fields becomes "the next FQB" may not be materially more or better than the chance a Trey Lance, Kyle Trask or Mac Jones will, players who could (in theory) be had later than pick #2.

And you're not wrong, Sewell comes with his own risk factors.  But, like T.L., he is considered by scouts to be one of the best O-line prospects to come out in "a generation", as folks love to say.  That says something too.

Ultimately, J.D. needs to maximize the value of the #2 pick.  He simply cannot get it wrong, cannot draft a bust, cannot waste the pick.  The guy he picks must come in and dominate, he must literally help change the course of this franchise, or J.D.'s own job will immediately be at risk, 6-year contract or not. 

This is 10x more important if he drafts a QB at #2.  It will literally define J.D.'s NFL Career.  Does he really believe in a Wilson type, and his puffball opposition, enough to spend the #2 pick on him while he still has Darnold in his back pocket?

I honestly don't know.  Said it before, gonna be an interesting offseason, no doubt about it.

 

[Jetsfan4life90]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I'll give you this. Becton does seem to be a RT as he seems to have problems pass blocking.

But they're taking a QB.  

If you want to believe they'll take Sewell so be it, I won't argue you anymore.

I don't think it's a shoe-in that Sewell will be the pick at #2 by any means, but I disagree that he ain't in the mix at all. Especially with Douglas as the GM. 

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Robert Gallery was a can't miss OT, too. 

Sewell will likely end up very good.  Probably get to several Pro Bowls.  But he's not an absolute lock to become a HOF LT.  And even if he is, you still have to move Becton to RT.  That's not exactly a smart allocation of resources.  You absolutely should not need to spend a # 11 overall and a # 2 overall for a LT-RT combo.  

I'd also add to this - The more that I think about it, the more that the logic of using a #2 overall pick on a guy who is going to play the same position as our best young player really bothers me.

Jets fans: Sam sucks and Becton is really good, so let's draft a guy who will force Becton to play another position so that we can build a stronger team around Sam. What? 

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Because they are all new. They are all learning. And the HC is new. Let all the newness wear off. Let the players become knowledgeable in how the NFL works and in how the new O scheme works. You can't be teaching everyone AND a rookie QB. Get everything working smoothly, then insert a rookie QB so that you are ONLY teaching him and the rest of the Offense runs like a well oiled machine.

So basically throw away a year and then hope the next year you can find  and plug in a QB that can mesh with the rest of the team . Why not let a QB grow with the rest of the new pieces , then in 2022 your not trying to bring in the most important piece your just plugging minor holes. JD for all intents and purposes already threw away this year for rebuilding , is he going to sacrifice another w/o a real QB ?

[Augustiniak]

43 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The bolded is an excellent point that should probably be stickied on the front page somewhere. 

Many people on this board seem to have no respect for the opportunity that is owning the #2 overall pick and needing a QB. 

The main reason they have the #2 pick is because they need a qb.  They are nearly perfectly correlated.  

[yvj]

It's simple, if you think a QB in the draft has the potential to be better than who darnold is right now, you draft him.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'd also add to this - The more that I think about it, the more that the logic of using a #2 overall pick on a guy who is going to play the same position as our best young player really bothers me.

Jets fans: Sam sucks and Becton is really good, so let's draft a guy who will force Becton to play another position so that we can build a stronger team around Sam. What? 

True.  We can’t stick our heads in the sand and pick based purely on a draft board like mccagnan did and end up with DL and S as the main hauls.

[Adoni Beast]

What we can get is a war chest of picks. The exact amount will obviously depend on how far down we trade down.

But we can feasibly have three 1st next year. If you don’t love Wilson/Fields/Darnold...

...then you trade down this year. You build the roster this year, sign some quality free agents and draft someone in 2022 if Sam isn’t the guy.

Personally, I take Zack Wilson at 2, trade Sam, sign a vet and let Wilson sit for half or whole season.