What You Can Get With the #2 Pick

[slimjasi]

35 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

The main reason they have the #2 pick is because they need a qb.  They are nearly perfectly correlated.  

I would agree. I mean, when you look at the NYJ's record and then consider that they have the worst offense in the league, equipped with a QB who went 5 straight games without a TD pass and has two 200 yard games all season, you sort of get the idea that they might be correlated . . . 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Adoni Beast said:

What we can get is a war chest of picks. The exact amount will obviously depend on how far down we trade down.

But we can feasibly have three 1st next year. If you don’t love Wilson/Fields/Darnold...

...then you trade down this year. You build the roster this year, sign some quality free agents and draft someone in 2022 if Sam isn’t the guy.

Personally, I take Zack Wilson at 2, trade Sam, sign a vet and let Wilson sit for half or whole season.

I think it will be very fun  and interesting to see the qb evaluations unfold leading up to the draft.  With miami poised to take Sewell at 3, if the jets trade back to 4 they would probably still be able to land fields or Wilson.  

[Sonny Werblin]

4 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

So basically throw away a year and then hope the next year you can find  and plug in a QB that can mesh with the rest of the team . Why not let a QB grow with the rest of the new pieces , then in 2022 your not trying to bring in the most important piece your just plugging minor holes. JD for all intents and purposes already threw away this year for rebuilding , is he going to sacrifice another w/o a real QB ?

Don't throw away, there are UFA QBs who are a very clear upgrade to Sam. Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Brandon Allen and CJ Beathard. There is also Joe Flacco. The Bill Walsh Forty Niners weren't birthed with Joe Montana at QB. They first had Steve DeBerg. 

Putting a QB other than Lawrence to start for the Jets next season is just like rinse and repeat. Why make the same mistake when you can avoid it? So, what if the QB is running 1 or 2 years behind your preferred schedule. It's been over 50 freaking years since a SB appearance and a decade since the playoffs. Just because Mac screwed up it doesn't mean JD should do this any way other than the best way.

[56mehl56]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think it will be very fun  and interesting to see the qb evaluations unfold leading up to the draft.  With miami poised to take Sewell at 3, if the jets trade back to 4 they would probably still be able to land fields or Wilson.  

That's an awful risk to take if you like one of the QB's over the other , if you eye them as equals then this scenario is more plausible. 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Don't throw away, there are UFA QBs who are a very clear upgrade to Sam. Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Brandon Allen and CJ Beathard. There is also Joe Flacco. The Bill Walsh Forty Niners weren't birthed with Joe Montana at QB. They first had Steve DeBerg. 

Dear lord, why even watch a season of those losers?  Why not just trade the #2 pick to Miami for Fitzmagic while we're at it!

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Don't throw away, there are UFA QBs who are a very clear upgrade to Sam. Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Brandon Allen and CJ Beathard. There is also Joe Flacco. The Bill Walsh Forty Niners weren't birthed with Joe Montana at QB. They first had Steve DeBerg. 

Putting a QB other than Lawrence to start for the Jets next season is just like rinse and repeat. Why make the same mistake when you can avoid it? So, what if the QB is running 1 or 2 years behind your preferred schedule. It's been over 50 freaking years since a SB appearance and a decade since the playoffs. Just because Mac screwed up it doesn't mean JD should do this any way other than the best way.

 Its not the fans schedule its the GM's. The meter is already running on JD's contract. You think he wants to plug in another QB and have to have him learn new systems only to do it over again in 2022 with a new guy. If he's going to do that he may as well stick with Sam. Build it all together with a new HC and new CS . Everybody gets on the same page from day one.  

[slats]

19 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The bolded is an excellent point that should probably be stickied on the front page somewhere. 

Many people on this board seem to have no respect for the opportunity that is owning the #2 overall pick and needing a QB. 

I do. For me, it comes down to how highly Joe Douglas rates his favorite QB at #2 vs. the haul he’s offered in return for that pick in a trade. 

[Augustiniak]

8 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

That's an awful risk to take if you like one of the QB's over the other , if you eye them as equals then this scenario is more plausible. 

That’s why the evaluations are so interesting.  If douglas can trade back to, say, 4, and still likely get fields or Wilson and get an extra early 2nd round pick, would it be worth it?  Of course if he trades back farther you really lose both of them but if you’re ok taking another qb then you can really get a draft haul.  

[KINGDIRK]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Dear lord, why even watch a season of those losers?  Why not just trade the #2 pick to Miami for Fitzmagic while we're at it!

We go from TL dreams to Winston, Brisset, Allen. This is bizarro world!

[Sonny Werblin]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Dear lord, why even watch a season of those losers?  Why not just trade the #2 pick to Miami for Fitzmagic while we're at it!

Because the #2 pick will be used on a T or, preferably, a trade back to accumulate foundational players who are far less than the crapshoot of overdrafting a QB an inserting him into a lineup with a HC and Scheme that is brand new for everyone involved. What exactly do you think you'll be watching if the Jets use the #2 pick on Wilson, Fields or Lance?

[Sonny Werblin]

2 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

We go from TL dreams to Winston, Brisset, Allen. This is bizarro world!

It was Lawrence or Bust. Welcome to Bust!

[Losmeister]

3 hours ago, slimjasi said:

but if I like a QB and I'm sitting at 2, I don't play around

youlike him? or you LIKE like him?

[56mehl56]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Because the #2 pick will be used on a T or, preferably, a trade back to accumulate foundational players who are far less than the crapshoot of overdrafting a QB an inserting him into a lineup with a HC and Scheme that is brand new for everyone involved. What exactly do you think you'll be watching if the Jets use the #2 pick on Wilson, Fields or Lance?

A team being built the right way , instead of hoping for a 4th year QB to finally learn the game, Or worse yet some journeyman scrub QB getting us to 6-10 and  then needing to part with multiple assets in the 2022 draft to hopefully find a answer at QB. 

[Ben Had]

With TL gone no one is going to want to move up to #2...QB's available last year...who moved up? 

[Sonny Werblin]

9 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

 Its not the fans schedule its the GM's. The meter is already running on JD's contract. You think he wants to plug in another QB and have to have him learn new systems only to do it over again in 2022 with a new guy. If he's going to do that he may as well stick with Sam. Build it all together with a new HC and new CS . Everybody gets on the same page from day one.  

I think the last time that worked was Jimmy Johnson's cowboys? The niners had Deberg before Montana, the Chiefs had Smith before Mahomes, the Bills had Tyrod Taylor before Allen, Miami had Fitz before Tua .....   There is nothing wrong with building the team first with a seasoned meh veteran at QB. It works. The young QBs who've had the most success Mahomes, Jackson and Allen were put on teams that already had a lot of talent and a coaching staff that had established a culture. This is no accident.

I personally believe JD wants to do this right and will not allow his contract to dictate the schedule.

[Sonny Werblin]

5 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

A team being built the right way , instead of hoping for a 4th year QB to finally learn the game, Or worse yet some journeyman scrub QB getting us to 6-10 and  then needing to part with multiple assets in the 2022 draft to hopefully find a answer at QB. 

We either clearly disagree as to the proper way to build a team or have a greatly different opinion of the QBs in this class after Lawrence as compared to QBs that are typically available every year (or every other year) in the middle of the first round.

[Losmeister]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Dear lord, why even watch a season of those losers?  Why not just trade the #2 pick to Miami for Fitzmagic while we're at it!

we in 6-9 games with Fitz this year...    no, not the #2, but in a trade down scenario..   take Fitz and a haul of picks..  

Fitz to Mims would work he knows how to back shoulder

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

They can be, but why risk the draft capital on putting a rookie QB in a bad situation?

Why build around a young QB? Why not insert a young QB on a team that is already built?

Because if the QB works out, that becomes a priceless commodity.  It's the hardest position at which to find a good one, so you have to take them when you can regardless of what shape your roster is in.  Do you think the Texans now regret taking Deshaun Watson just because his circumstances are no longer ideal?  Do you really think Pat Mahomes wouldn't be a top 5 QB anywhere he ended up?  Situations change.  But if a QB has the goods, he'll make it in spite of his circumstances.  

And adding a QB to an already good roster is easier said than done.  You can't just pluck one off the QB tree.  As has been proven in this very thread, generally you have to use a high pick to get one.  A privilege not always available to a team with a solid roster, because you end up picking later in the 1st round.

You don't wait to take a QB just because your team is bad.  You just don't.  No GM worth anything thinks in this fashion.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Because if the QB works out, that becomes a priceless commodity.  Do you think the Texans regret taking Deshaun Watson just because his circumstances are no longer ideal?  Situations change.  But if a QB has the goods, he'll make it in spite of his circumstances.

And adding a QB to an already good roster is easier said than done.  You can't just pluck one off the QB tree.  As has been proven in this very thread, generally you have to use a high pick to get one.  A privilege not always available to a team with a solid roster, because you end up picking later.

plus it's not watson's fault they traded hopkins and then dealt their #1 pick for tunsil who sucks anyway.  

[JetsFan1986]

I’m fine whichever direction JD goes in.  If he wants to draft a WB but fine if he finds a deal to trade back and can build the team quicker and roll with Sam another year I’m cool with that as well 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I understand your position. In my view good situations, make good QBs. 

And this has been proven to be a patently false statement.  Good QB's make their teams better, not the other way around.  Otherwise, all good QB's would fall apart the moment their rosters go to sh*t.  That doesn't happen for the top guys.  Just look at Matthew Stafford.  Historically awful organization yet he's played at about a top 10 QB level for over a decade.  The Packers haven't exactly helped Aaron Rodgers much with coaching (McCarthy) or offensive talent and yet he's continued to play at a HOF level throughout his career.  Several other QB's got paid an exorbitant amount, hurting a team's ability to build around them, yet they still produce (Russell Wilson comes to mind).  That stuff shouldn't be possible if what you say is true.  

Also, you'd see a lot of QB's in bad situations become good when they get to good situations.  That doesn't happen either.  You can count on one hand the guys who failed at one spot but succeeded later on, and none of them are current.  Jim Plunkett, Steve Young and Rich Gannon are the only real examples of this.  Meanwhile, there are dozens and dozens of QB's who were bad and stayed bad at their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stops.

[slats]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And this has been proven to be a patently false statement.  Good QB's make their teams better, not the other way around.  Otherwise, all good QB's would fall apart the moment their rosters go to sh*t.  That doesn't happen for the top guys.  

Like Josh Allen? 

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Like Josh Allen? 

An historically unprecedented turnaround is an anomaly, not the rule.  Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon, Steve Young, and Josh Allen versus dozens and dozens of DeShone Kizer's, Joey Harrington's, Brock Osweiler's, Mark Sanchez's, Geno Smith's and Christian Hackenberg's.

And even in Josh Allen's situation, HE had to be the one to get better.  The team's improvement merely complimented an unprecedented improvement in accuracy and decision-making.  If there's anything to be learned from Josh Allen, it's that a guy with elite athleticism is worth a shot more often in today's NFL.  Guys like Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have proven this, and now Allen is on that list.  That helps make Fields a viable option at # 2. 

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

plus it's not watson's fault they traded hopkins and then dealt their #1 pick for tunsil who sucks anyway.  

Exactly.  Good QB's don't need to make a laundry list of excuses to somehow prove they can be good.  They just produce. 

Yet you still  have people here calling Watson "overrated".  lol.  I'd love to have a QB that's good enough to be called "overrated".

[NYJ1]

Honestly, the problem with this team has always been DRAFTING. Up until last draft, every draft pick was a bust. As far as I'm concerned, especially where we already have Darnold on this team, we need to focus on building up any one of the several other weaknesses this team has.

Honestly, I don't think QB, especially now that Lawrence is unattainable, is a pressing need?

I would focus on fixing the OL if it were me. Sewell is there for the taking at 2. Scherff is available in FA. Humphrey is available in the 2nd round. Or we could focus on quality over quantity and package a 1st and 2nd to move up and grab Kyle Pitts?

CB, LB, WR, OL, RB, FB off the top of my head are all areas where the Jets have need. 

I really believe JD would be doing what's best for the Jets if he just decided to fix the team first. The way Douglas seems to like to stockpile picks we should have enough ammunition to trade up in future years.

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

Honestly, the problem with this team has always been DRAFTING. Up until last draft, every draft pick was a bust. As far as I'm concerned, especially where we already have Darnold on this team, we need to focus on building up any one of the several other weaknesses this team has.

Honestly, I don't think QB, especially now that Lawrence is unattainable, is a pressing need?

I would focus on fixing the OL if it were me. Sewell is there for the taking at 2. Scherff is available in FA. Humphrey is available in the 2nd round. Or we could focus on quality over quantity and package a 1st and 2nd to move up and grab Kyle Pitts?

CB, LB, WR, OL, RB, FB off the top of my head are all areas where the Jets have need. 

I really believe JD would be doing what's best for the Jets if he just decided to fix the team first. The way Douglas seems to like to stockpile picks we should have enough ammunition to trade up in future years.

you watch good teams and see how good qbs not only compensate for not having great players in other positions, they make them better.  OL and wr are great examples.  put devonte adams on the jets and he gets 2 catches for 32 yards and we think he sucks.  truth the jet OL wasn't bad this year. the running game was much better and darnold actually had more time to throw than prior years.  another qb gets the ball out and makes the OL look better.  look at what gore did behind the jets OL, not bad.  faster rbs did even better.  and they rarely used screens of course.  

if you get the qb position right it has a cascading effect on other positions.  wr/te careers are made largely because of their qbs.  

[Sonny Werblin]

34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because if the QB works out, that becomes a priceless commodity.  It's the hardest position at which to find a good one, so you have to take them when you can regardless of what shape your roster is in.  Do you think the Texans now regret taking Deshaun Watson just because his circumstances are no longer ideal?  Do you really think Pat Mahomes wouldn't be a top 5 QB anywhere he ended up?  Situations change.  But if a QB has the goods, he'll make it in spite of his circumstances.  

And adding a QB to an already good roster is easier said than done.  You can't just pluck one off the QB tree.  As has been proven in this very thread, generally you have to use a high pick to get one.  A privilege not always available to a team with a solid roster, because you end up picking later in the 1st round.

You don't wait to take a QB just because your team is bad.  You just don't.  No GM worth anything thinks in this fashion.

If. Thats the issue. The answer is in how small or big of an IF JD puts on the QBs not named lawrence. Personally, I think the IFs are pretty big.

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

J.D. needs to maximize the value of the #2 pick.  He simply cannot get it wrong, cannot draft a bust, cannot waste the pick.  The guy he picks must come in and dominate, he must literally help change the course of this franchise, or J.D.'s own job will immediately be at risk, 6-year contract or not.

and yet the historical odds show that most of these picks DONT HIT, no matter who makes them.

DRAFT = gambling that is 3 parts analysis, and 1 part pure ******* luck. its really simple as that (not saying the %ages provided are rcok solid or nuthn stoopit like dat)

so... he actually improves his odds, so to speak, if he is able to trade the #2 into multiple picks.

I've been talking about trade down and Trey for a while...    thats just one example....  could be Trask, Mac ????

I'll reiterate that I hope Lawrence is a collosal bust...   nnuth against the kid.

But he's soon to be a multimillionaire, liek Sam who i dont feel sorry fpor one bit , despite him being a toe the line guy and a nice kid. What? Aww, you widdle dweems are shaddered? ( and you have 25 million bucks?? eff that. too bad, so sad.)

I just wanna see all the dolts stick theor tail bewteen their legs and admit they are unmanly wanks  for crying and whingeing so disgustingly... about winning a football game.

 

[Losmeister]

4 hours ago, slats said:

The only evaluations that matter are the ones on the QBs. IMHO, JD won’t even look at the scouting report for Sewell. 

I hope ur correct, good lawd, do i hope you are correct.

[Savage69]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

My take on that is that the same teams with good situations have competent GM's who evaluate the QB position better than most.  Mike Maccagnan took Christian Hackenberg and Jamal Adams over Mahomes/Watson, for instance.  Reid traded up for Mahomes despite lots of question marks (and with Alex Smith coming off a career year).  Etc etc

These are polar opposite examples, yes.  But good franchises tend to have QB continuity for a reason.  Like the Packers did when they went from Favre to Rodgers, the Chargers when they went from Brees to Rivers to Justin Herbert, and even the Cowboys when they went from Romo to Dak.  

And Romo was a UDFA and Dak a 4th rd pick..

[Losmeister]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

We know this is a 1A and a bunch of 2B QB choices type Draft.

i think @JiF said same...    FACT? we DON'T KNOW this.

If you woulda said Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the strength of the QB class in 2018, people woulda laughed.

Allen has 89 total TDs in 42 games https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

Sa m has 49 in 37  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00.htm

Baker has 78 in 45 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MayfBa00.htm

 

Thats whay so many lauded draftpiks go sideways...

[JetsFan1986]

8 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

i think @JiF said same...    FACT? we DON'T KNOW this.

If you woulda said Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the strength of the QB class in 2018, people woulda laughed.

Thats whay so many lauded draftpiks go sideways...

It still comes gown to how the teams are Built.  Allen has a loaded team and good coaching

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

You don't trade the 2nd overall pick when you need a QB in a draft that is suppose to be a good QB draft class.

If the Jets like a QB, they have to take him at 2. 

Just my opinion. 

Therein lies the question.  There is a consensus #1 QB in this Draft.  There is no consensus #2 QB.  Analysts are a bit all over the place, as are fans.  Fields was the popular choice, Wilson jumped up boards in the past few weeks, guys like Lance, Jones and Trask all have some merits and in an odd, COVID-impacted season where some of these guys played just a handful of games, who really knows?

If JD has conviction on one of them, pull the trigger.  QB is the most important position in football and we need one.  But if the conviction isn't there then trade back.  Let's not forget that guys like Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Allen and now Herbert were ALL taken outside the Top 5.

Despite millions of dollars invested in scouting, film review, interviews, measurements, combines and workouts.....QB picking still seems to be a very inexact science.

[BROOKLYN JET]

Macc was able to get a better safety in the 2nd round, than he did in the 1st round in 2017.

[Lurker89]

Use Premium picks at QB until we are sure we hit on one..... That part should not be rocket science.

Hitting on a much higher percentage of our other picks would be extremely helpful and is something this team has not done.... Ever. Also not rocket science.... The rest is us throwing our s***** opinions around which is what the site is for and what we are here to do.

My s***** opinion is: Oh well about Trevor he could bust like the rest I'm not tied to any of the prospects and based on our track record I don't expect us to pick the right one anyway. I'd like a trade down but I'm passed getting bent out of shape about not getting what I want or think is in the best interest of the team. Just enjoying the flames.