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You are complicating the draft; what to do with the 2nd pick


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1 hour ago, slats said:

So you want to replace a 21 year old, former #11 overall, because he struggled against one of the best pass rushers in the league, and the way to do it is to replace him with another rookie who didn’t play a down in 2020? 
 
Yeah, sorry, Sewell won’t even be a consideration. 

Agree, only way he is - or should be - a consideration is if the stock values of the next 2 QBs drops like crazy AND the trade down offers are awful.

Then it's still questionable value to a team that already has an excellent & very young LT, but it's I'll acknowledge it's still better than reaching for a bust. 

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You guys are seriously complicating this. 40 times don't matter for a QB or a lineman. College TD to INT ratio don't matter in college. Can a OT get to 375lbs, it doesn't matter. Here is all you

Becton's LT performance last week vs Myles Garrett was problematic  Garrett almost ripped Sam Darnold's arm off on that FF that was called incomplete   he's given up, what? 8 sacks this year

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12 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Since you don't know, isn't the best bet to trade down from #2 to have more picks?

Definitely not, we already have a lot of draft capital and these players are dice rolls. Honestly taking all biases out the best thing logically would be for Joe Douglas to identify a QB. Darnold has been a bottom 5 QB for 3 years straight and both Fields and Wilson offer higher upside athletically. 
 

I would draft a QB sit him a year and build to his strengths like we planned the team to do with Trevor. I would also sign a Vet that could run the system to guide show the rookie the ropes. 
 

Next year if we kept Darnold and he flames out we would have to trade and lose draft capital just to get our guy. Counterproductive imo 🤷‍♂️


 

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10 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Definitely not, we already have a lot of draft capital and these players are dice rolls. Honestly taking all biases out the best thing logically would be for Joe Douglas to identify a QB. Darnold has been a bottom 5 QB for 3 years straight and both Fields and Wilson offer higher upside athletically. 
 

I would draft a QB sit him a year and build to his strengths like we planned the team to do with Trevor. I would also sign a Vet that could run the system to guide show the rookie the ropes. 
 

Next year if we kept Darnold and he flames out we would have to trade and lose draft capital just to get our guy. Counterproductive imo 🤷‍♂️


 

While I prefer a trade down, I do agree that if a QB is chosen they sit him for the season, or until he legitimately beats out a competent veteran QB.

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2 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

yes and draft a QB at the bottom of the first round.  

Really. Just take anybody that happens to be left whenever the Jets pick comes up?  It doesn't matter who?  What if 5-6 QBs go before the Jets pick? Then just take the next QB on the board?  At the most important position on the field?  So if the Jets have Sewell and Becton as bookends then QB doesn't matter?  Fields and Wilson are not worth the #2 pick, but anybody who is left warrants a late first round pick.  That is just absurd.  

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

Becton's LT performance last week vs Myles Garrett was problematic 

Garrett almost ripped Sam Darnold's arm off on that FF that was called incomplete  

he's given up, what? 8 sacks this year? 

Don't get me wrong I love Becton, the dude is a mauler but it's possible isn't very great at pass protection  

the whole team improves with his move to RT 

especially the QB who can at least see it coming from the front side

 

 

This is bad analysis

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4 hours ago, Maxman said:

You guys are seriously complicating this. 40 times don't matter for a QB or a lineman. College TD to INT ratio don't matter in college. Can a OT get to 375lbs, it doesn't matter.

Here is all you have to do, there are only 4 options.

1. Draft Zach Wilson

2. Draft Justin Fields

3. Draft Penei Sewell

4. Trade the pick

How do you figure out what to do?  You watch the tape for the first 3 options. You watch it closely. The numbers will be right there and they will not lie. You check entrance #s, you check exit #s. You check the % of attendees that stayed the full time.

When it comes to the draft, you look at how many people went to Wilson, Fields and Sewell's 21st birthday party. It is a pandemic year, so you can allow for the quarantine factor. If 75% of the team went to one of these guys 21st birthday party, that is your guy.

EDIT:  I JUST REALIZED WE HAVE A PROBLEM.  Penei Sewell is 20 years old. He doesn't turn 21 until October.

REVISED DRAFT PLAN:  Joe Douglas to send out an evite for Sewell's 21st. If everyone responds yes, that is the guy.

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1 hour ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

You know what's terrible roster management? Drafting a left tackle so you can call him your left tackle. Drafting a quarterback so you can call him your Sammy. Everybody is always way ahead of themselves declaring the Jets to be all set at anything, let alone anything important. You can always put a left tackle somewhere. They took another one in the same draft.

Taking an OT at #2 the year after you took one at #11 is in no way comparable to taking one in the fifth round. There’s no conceivable way (sorry @Warfish) that they can pay both of them four years from now. Making Becton a RT doesn’t make him a RT, he’ll jump at LT money the moment he can. 
 
It’s a QB or a trade down. 
 
I’m not usually this definitive about predictions, but that’s how sure I am about this one. Sewell won’t be a consideration. 

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Agree, only way he is - or should be - a consideration is if the stock values of the next 2 QBs drops like crazy AND the trade down offers are awful.

Then it's still questionable value to a team that already has an excellent & very young LT, but it's I'll acknowledge it's still better than reaching for a bust. 

I think he’d take the top WR, Edge, CB on his board before he took another OT, but this is deeply hypothetical. I expect the offers for the pick to be better than the chart. Those QBs are gonna move around, but someone -if not JD- will see one of them or Sewell as worthy to trade up for. 

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2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

This was where my mind was at until I started really watching wilson three weeks ago. Still would not hate this approach. Depends on you confidence in the second tier talent this year.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

If Wilson is the pick I would be ok with it only because i have faith in JD.  I dont know much about Wilson though.  

FWIW I am an Ohio State fan and would not draft Fields.  I think he is a good college QB though.  Maybe I am just biased though because Fields is the reason Joe Burrow didnt stay.  But really thats not Fields fault, it is actually the coach (Ryan Day and or Urban ). LOL

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14 hours ago, slats said:

I think he’d take the top WR, Edge, CB on his board before he took another OT, but this is deeply hypothetical. I expect the offers for the pick to be better than the chart. Those QBs are gonna move around, but someone -if not JD- will see one of them or Sewell as worthy to trade up for. 

I think he's going to look for a WR1 in FA, seeing how there are as many as 4 slated to be available, before cap-strapped teams shave rosters & make veterans available by trade. That is, unless he's ready to give up on the idea of Mims starting after just 1 season. So I'd be surprised to see him take a WR in round 1. 

There'd be a few overdoses here at any top pick not devoted to the offense, but if he's not into any of the available QBs very early, don't discount that he might jump at the opportunity to trade down a few slots, grab an extra high pick (like an extra 2 this year or an extra 1 next year or a double-swap of some type) and take a top corner with our top pick. 

And yes, until we have one edge is always an option at the top of the draft when there's one with a top 5 grade. 

I do agree with you Sewell is a longshot (or should be). What people here aren't realizing is it indirectly downgrades the value of his hitting on a LT at #11 with Becton by relegating him to RT after 1 season. Right now it's a mega-hit if Becton develops further, as he should. If all he got was a RT (even if it's a probowl RT)? Meh; those guys are available in free agency without crippling the team elsewhere, plus an elite RT has never been a prerequisite for building a winner. 

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think he's going to look for a WR1 in FA, seeing how there are as many as 4 slated to be available, before cap-strapped teams shave rosters & make veterans available by trade. That is, unless he's ready to give up on the idea of Mims starting after just 1 season. So I'd be surprised to see him take a WR in round 1. 

There'd be a few overdoses here, but if he's not into any of the available QBs very early, don't discount that he might jump at the opportunity to trade down a few slots, grab an extra high pick (like an extra 2 this year or an extra 1 this year or a double-swap of some type) and take a top corner with our top pick. 

And yes, until we have one edge is always an option at the top of the draft when there's one with a top 5 grade. 

I do agree with you Sewell is a longshot (or should be). What people here aren't realizing is it indirectly downgrades the value of his hitting on a LT at #11 with Becton by relegating him to RT after 1 season. Right now it's a mega-hit if Becton develops further, as he should. If all he got was a RT (even if it's a probowl RT)? Meh; those guys are available in free agency without crippling the team elsewhere, plus an elite RT has never been a prerequisite for building a winner. 

Agreed.

Sewell seems unlikely 

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35 minutes ago, slats said:

Taking an OT at #2 the year after you took one at #11 is in no way comparable to taking one in the fifth round. There’s no conceivable way (sorry @Warfish) that they can pay both of them four years from now. Making Becton a RT doesn’t make him a RT, he’ll jump at LT money the moment he can. 
 
It’s a QB or a trade down. 
 
I’m not usually this definitive about predictions, but that’s how sure I am about this one. Sewell won’t be a consideration. 

7 sacks, 7 penalties, 70% of the snaps and you're worried about Becton's second contract?

The Chiefs took Eric Fisher first overall in 2013 after taking college left tackles in the second and third round in 2012. All with Branden Albert already on the roster. That's what it looks like when a competent organization treats something like it's important.

I agree that the pick has to be a quarterback if Douglas isn't in the tank for Darnold, but it sure seems like it would be Sewell otherwise.

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Agreed.

Sewell seems unlikely 

IMO Sewell is a guy you draft at #2 if you absolutely need a LT; or if you have one into his 30s, who isn't making crazy money anymore and whom you can move to RT as soon as Sewell's better (maybe week 1 of 2021, maybe in 2022, or maybe never like Lane Johnson).

Or it can be for making the precious bookends scenario if the team is otherwise pretty much set. The Jets badly (if not desperately) need replacements at QB, 2-3 non-LT positions on the OL, RB, WR1, TE, DE/EDGE, OLB, CB1, NB, and SS. Also FS if they don't have confidence in Davis improving dramatically in year 2.

I wouldn't value swapping Becton for Sewell at LT, and Fant for Becton at RT - in effect, primarily an upgrade at RT - over a much harder to find starter at edge, CB1, etc.

RT is neck & neck with center as the lowest-cost position on the OL, for all the people here attesting they're the next-most important after LT. Pay scale and typical draft slot say guard is more important than either. So to me, that's poor value to target the #2 overall pick to upgrade such a position with about 10+ other needs.

I'd like to upgrade from Fant also, but (a) it's not an absolute hole, and (b) it's hardly far-fetched to find an excellent RT well outside the top 5-10 overall picks.

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23 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

7 sacks, 7 penalties, 70% of the snaps and you're worried about Becton's second contract?

The Chiefs took Eric Fisher first overall in 2013 after taking college left tackles in the second and third round in 2012. All with Branden Albert already on the roster. That's what it looks like when a competent organization treats something like it's important.

I agree that the pick has to be a quarterback if Douglas isn't in the tank for Darnold, but it sure seems like it would be Sewell otherwise.

No chance. 
 
A 21-year-old rookie who came in as a pass protection project has had some hiccups but also has dominated. They’re not looking to move him. Again, nothing like second and third round picks. This guy was #11 overall and played well. You can move a third round pick to guard and he’s gonna be happy to have the work. If they had any reservations about Becton at LT, they could’ve started him on the other side this year. They didn’t, they have no reservations. 

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5 hours ago, Boynton Beach Jets said:

The first big mission of our new HC is to determine if Sam is salvageable.  I was a big fan of Sam, but he has been a big disappointment the last few weeks.  I wonder if his shoulder injury is worse then they are letting on.  If they feel Sam can be the man then I go with Sewell.  If they do not see Sam developing I draft Wilson if they think he can be a franchise QB.

If we find out Darnold has shoulder surgery in the off season or has serious physical rehab on his shoulder, maybe the real Sam Darnold is closer to the what he promised in brief vignettes earlier in his NFL career. 

If there is nothing currently wrong with Dranold's shoulder, then he is just a place holder for Captain Morgan or the next anxious kid waiting for his number to be called in the whatever round on draft day.

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2 hours ago, slats said:

Taking an OT at #2 the year after you took one at #11 is in no way comparable to taking one in the fifth round. There’s no conceivable way (sorry @Warfish) that they can pay both of them four years from now. Making Becton a RT doesn’t make him a RT, he’ll jump at LT money the moment he can. 
 
It’s a QB or a trade down. 
 
I’m not usually this definitive about predictions, but that’s how sure I am about this one. Sewell won’t be a consideration. 

So you say the cannot pay two elite Tackles.

I'll just ask....why not?  Specifically?

I'm pretty sure an NFL team "could" pay a Punter 20 million a season if they WANTED to do so.  

You could argue investing in two elite Tackles at high cost may be dumb.  You could argue that JD is unlikely to do it.

I don't believe you can argue that it "cannot" be done.  It can.  Like everything cap space management wise, it's a choice of priorities.

Don't misunderstand:  I (if I were GM) would either trade down or pick the Tackle.

I do not expect J.D. to do so.  I expect him to reach for a QB, and that QB to be just that, a reach pick who busts.  If I had to bet money, today, on the outcome, that is my bet.

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Julio/Amari/Calvin/Jeudy/Ruggs

Devonta Smith beat em all statistically and yet I don’t see enough about him as an option. 

Trade down get Devonta, Davis, and Harris.  How is this not the best option if possible. 
 
Wilson will be Rosen...note it down. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So you say the cannot pay two elite Tackles.

I'll just ask....why not?  Specifically?

I'm pretty sure an NFL team "could" pay a Punter 20 million a season if they WANTED to do so.  

You could argue investing in two elite Tackles at high cost may be dumb.  You could argue that JD is unlikely to do it.

I don't believe you can argue that it "cannot" be done.  It can.  Like everything cap space management wise, it's a choice of priorities.

Don't misunderstand:  I (if I were GM) would either trade down or pick the Tackle.

I do not expect J.D. to do so.  I expect him to reach for a QB, and that QB to be just that, a reach pick who busts.  If I had to bet money, today, on the outcome, that is my bet.

What makes anyone think JD doesn't like James Morgan? He invested a decent draft pick in him for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, rldev said:

What makes anyone think JD doesn't like James Morgan? He invested a decent draft pick in him for a reason.

Because generally speaking, its only Fans who think an unheralded mid-tier developmental prospect 4th Round QB is anything more than a backup-tier guy at best.

Be honest:  Do you think J.D. drafted Morgan with the idea that he will be a Franchise QB NFL Starter?

 

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6 hours ago, Boynton Beach Jets said:

The first big mission of our new HC is to determine if Sam is salvageable.  I was a big fan of Sam, but he has been a big disappointment the last few weeks.  I wonder if his shoulder injury is worse then they are letting on.  If they feel Sam can be the man then I go with Sewell.  If they do not see Sam developing I draft Wilson if they think he can be a franchise QB.

The last few weeks?

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Because generally speaking, its only Fans who think an unheralded mid-tier developmental prospect 4th Round QB is anything more than a backup-tier guy at best.

Be honest:  Do you think J.D. drafted Morgan with the idea that he will be a Franchise QB NFL Starter?

 

Possibly....Nobody thought Tom Brady would be a GOAT in the 6th round.  You gain extra draft capital and spend picks on QB's until you find the one who will lead you.  Sucks, but that is the NFL....you gotta keep taking QB's until you find one. 

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17 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Possibly....Nobody thought Tom Brady would be a GOAT in the 6th round.  You gain extra draft capital and spend picks on QB's until you find the one who will lead you.  Sucks, but that is the NFL....you gotta keep taking QB's until you find one. 

The odds that Morgan is anything other than a backup are very, VERY low.

Is it POSSIBLE he is more? Sure, same way it is POSSIBLE that I will win the lottery tomorrow.  

We really should try to be more realistic.  A little realism saves a lot of unnecessary disappointment.

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4 hours ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

7 sacks, 7 penalties, 70% of the snaps and you're worried about Becton's second contract?

The Chiefs took Eric Fisher first overall in 2013 after taking college left tackles in the second and third round in 2012. All with Branden Albert already on the roster. That's what it looks like when a competent organization treats something like it's important.

I agree that the pick has to be a quarterback if Douglas isn't in the tank for Darnold, but it sure seems like it would be Sewell otherwise.

I think the two scenarios are 1) they draft a QB or 2) they trade the pick.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

The odds that Morgan is anything other than a backup are very, VERY low.

Is it POSSIBLE he is more? Sure, same way it is POSSIBLE that I will win the lottery tomorrow.  

We really should try to be more realistic.  A little realism saves a lot of unnecessary disappointment.

Fair enough...I will be happy if he works out, not that upset if he doesn't.  I like the fact JD created an extra asset, and uses it to try and hit on the most important position.  We are both old enough to remember when the league was not so QB-centric, but that is the unfortunate fate of a current football team.

Good to hear from you!  Wish you the best in 2021.  

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