Best offensive fits for Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Darnold

[football guy]

Seems like everyone wants whatever QB does well in a bowl game in these days, so I figured I would cut through the flashy throws and impressive stats to truly identify what each QB needs to be successful in the NFL, with a Sam Darnold bonus... (P.S. did not include Trey Lance or Mac Jones, though I think Jones especially will go higher than people think if he declares). 

I also want to stress that I'm not suggesting these coaches are the only coaches who can design a scheme around each player; I'm suggesting their styles are best. There are a lot of coaches out there who are incredibly adaptable (i.e. Josh McDaniels, Byron Leftwich, Sean McVay, college coaches), but for the sake of giving clear comps I focused on NFL designers and play-callers with very distinct offensive schemes/philosophies. It's not to say that an Arthur Smith can't get the most out of a Trevor Lawrence, he very well could better than anyone... I'm just trying to point out the current NFL offenses that would fit each prospect's skill-set best. 

 

Trevor Lawrence

• Upside comp: Justin Herbert+ 
• Downside comp: Blaine Gabbert+ 

Best offensive scheme:

• Wide-zone drop back scheme with flood and mesh concept driven passing strategy. Lawrence has more scheme versatility than the rest of the QBs on this list, but his best fit would prioritize a lot of third-field vertical to intermediate to short progressions. He's mechanically sound and has all the skill you need a QB to possess, so there are very little limitations in terms of the offenses passing plan. The thing a coach needs to recognize is that Lawrence may not be ready to scan an entire field, but you don't want that to limit your playbook. Lawrence has a phenomenal feel throwing the wheel route and it comes instinctually for him. He does it so effectively that the flood and mesh concepts should be a staple in whatever offense he plays in. It will allow him to take what the defense gives him in 1/3 of the field, yet attack his 2nd read in a different third without hesitation. Most of the candidates linked to the job are spread-focused offenses... I'm sure he'll be fine, especially considering the talent Jacksonville has accumulated, but I would opt for a more pro-style scheme. Good offensive line helps, but he can handle pressure (even though its a slight concern). 

Primary Personnel Requirements: 

• Pass catching RBs with route running chops (see Alvin Kamara). 
• Precise route runners (see Keenan Allen). 

Best coaching fits: 

• Brian Daboll 
• Sean Payton 
• Pat Shurmur 
• Shane Steichen 
• Nick SIrianni 

 

 

Zach Wilson

• Upside: Aaron Rodgers   
• Downside: Kyle Boller

Best offensive scheme:

• WCO-Air Raid hybrid with RPO elements and moving pockets. Like Lawrence, Wilson has some scheme versatility. I think he can absolutely be a star in a Shanahan-Kubiak style offense, but the coach would have to be Kyle Shanahan, not say Jeremy Bates... reason being is that play design that maximizes first-read passing lanes and minimizes pressure and complex decision-making will be a must. That's not scheme, that's a coach's adaptability and play-calling. Instead, most of the guys I included feature offenses that incorporate a lot of shotgun and downfield passing with the freedom to make plays on the move and outside of structure. Can he be a horizontal passer? Absolutely. But it's not the best fit for him early on. He's not ready to read defenses or complex route combinations, and struggles in the face of pressure. Will need a very strong offensive line early on. 

Primary Personnel Requirements: 

• Strong offensive line play (see San Francisco 49ers). 
• Deep speed (see Tyreek Hill et al). 

Best coaching fits: 

• Andy Reid 
• Joe Brady 
• Kliff Kingsbury 
• Todd Monken 
• Kyle Shanahan 

 

 

Justin Fields

• Upside: Cam Newton
• Downside: Marcus Mariota 

Best offensive scheme:

• Spread focused outside-zone RPO attack. This offense should limit the personnel groupings, formations, checks at the LOS, protections and focus on installing things Fields is most familiar with early on: leaks, play-action, motion, and jet-sweeps while giving Fields the freedom to operate as a runner. Such an offense will take advantage of his ability to throw downfield, otherwise he's checking down or running. It should also promote a lot of "pop" passing, allowing the QB the option to tuck it and run, throw to the option TE, or hit the RB screen. These high percentage passes can keep the defense honest in order to execute the explosive downfield plays. I don't think he'll be as much of a runner, but can be prime Cam Newton as a passer, potentially better, if he can stay healthy. He has the size and the body even if he's not as big as Newton. I expect closer to Mariota. Offensive line is less relevant if the right coordinator is calling the plays. 

Primary Personnel Requirements: 

• Y-versatile TEs (see Mark Andrews).
• Athletic offensive linemen (see Tennessee Titans). 

Best coaching fits: 

• Greg Roman 
• Bill Lazor
• Arthur Smith 
• Scott Turner 
• Doug Pederson

 

 

Sam Darnold

• Upside comp: Tony Romo  
• Downside comp: current 

Best offensive scheme:

• WC-focused offense with RPO elements and a flex-run scheme with heavy play-action usage. This offense should include some spread elements, but primarily should be an 11 personnel base. Jeremy Bates was perfect for Sam. He wasn't hired because of Sam (they hired him to lure Kirk Cousins), but that style offense was best for Sam even if Bates' version was a bit vanilla. Really feel he would be an entirely different QB had we just stuck with Bates. You want to call plays from under-center which allow Darnold get into his drop, as he's best when his feet are active. You also want to emphasize leaks, roll-out, and bootleg to get him on the move while promoting throws to one-on-one matchups, rather than relying on route combinations to beat coverages. The goal is to eliminate over-thinking and allow Darnold to focus on his mechanics. A flex man-zone blocking scheme that incorporates power running is preferred. Does not need a perfect offensive line as much as you do good play design that minimizes complexity. 

Primary Personnel Requirements: 

• Receivers who can win one-on-one contested situations (see Denzel Mims). 
• Versatile running backs (see Dalvin Cook). 

Best coaching-style fits: 

• Kyle Shanahan
• Jim Harbaugh 
• Mike McCarthy 
• John DeFilippo   
• Gary Kubiak

 

 

[QB1]

I’ll give you a bump for the effort that went into this although part of me thinks its an elaborate ploy to drop the cam newton comp.

[Jetster]

Dalvin Cook. The 1 of 20 that have gotten away during Maccs reign of terror. 

[peekskill68]

I happened to notice none were a good fit for Adam Gase.... 

[Greenseed4]

49 minutes ago, football guy said:

Downside comp: current 

Sam’s worst case comparison is himself. 

[56mehl56]

2 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

I happened to notice none were a good fit for Adam Gase.... 

If your old enough you may remember the electric football games where the players kind of ended up in big circles. Gase may be a perfect fit. 

[Greenseed4]

Seriously @football guy thank you for taking the time to do this!!!

[Gangrene]

Thank you OP for this, enjoyed your take on schemes and fit very much. Bates did seem to have Darnold pointing in the right direct, everything went south after that.

You may not have the interest or time but I would love to see your similar evaluation of Trey Lance, scheme and coach fit...

 

[jgb]

Cool analysis. If you’re right and the window for Fields is Mariota/Newton, that’s a homerun pick.

Also, I had Romo as Darnold’s upside comp out of school but that ship has sailed. It’s Dalton now IMHO and if he achieves that, it will be very impressive and nearly unprecedented.

[Losmeister]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Cool analysis. If you’re right and the window for Fields is Mariota/Newton, that’s a homerun pick.

Also, I had Romo as Darnold’s upside comp out of school but that ship has sailed. It’s Dalton now IMHO and if he achieves that, it will be very impressive and nearly unprecedented.

every time someone says Sams ceiling is peak Andy Dalton that should have a (TM Losmeister). please and thank you.

[jgb]

Just now, Losmeister said:

every time someone says Sams ceiling is peak Andy Dalton that should have a (TM Losmeister). please and thank you.

We are like Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz

 

[Losmeister]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

We are like Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz

 

since I am Germanic on my old man's side I'll be Gottfried, cool w/ you?

thats on name alone... i dont know about their relationship and will hafta look it up.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Sam Darnold

• Upside comp: Tony Romo  
• Downside comp: current 

lol

The only way to go is up!

 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

since I am Germanic on my old man's side I'll be Gottfried, cool w/ you?

thats on name alone... i dont know about their relationship and will hafta look it up.

I live in Germany but have at it. Newton had better PR and got all the credit  

[Butterfield]

Thank you for confirming why I don’t really want any of these qbs.  I would be happy with Lawrence, but I’d be happier with the trade down possibilities.  I would be unhappy with Wilson or Fields.  Wilson has a scary injury history and I think Fields gets beat up, just like Cam.  

[jgb]

Just now, Butterfield said:

Thank you for confirming why I don’t really want any of these qbs.  I would be happy with Lawrence, but I’d be happier with the trade down possibilities.  I would be unhappy with Wilson or Fields.  Wilson has a scary injury history and I think Fields gets beat up, just like Cam.  

So in your scenario, who starts next year?

[Losmeister]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

I live in Germany but have at it. Newton had better PR and got all the credit  

in that case, i'll leave you to choose. Isaac is a cool name too.

my gp's were from the Alsace/Lorraine area...  where you at?

[Butterfield]

1 minute ago, Butterfield said:

Thank you for confirming why I don’t really want any of these qbs.  I would be happy with Lawrence, but I’d be happier with the trade down possibilities.  I would be unhappy with Wilson or Fields.  Wilson has a scary injury history and I think Fields gets beat up, just like Cam.  

Also, not sure about the Herbert comparison.  Not because it might not be accurate, but Herbert is still so new that we don’t even know what he is yet.  

[Jet_Engine1]

Cam Newton was overhyped trash that was "elite" for about 20 months.

What I saw last night looked a lot like:

 

Ceiling: Russell Wilson 

 

Solid Expectation : Dakota Prescott 

 

Floor: Tannehill 

 

Fixed.

[Butterfield]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

So in your scenario, who starts next year?

I’m not sure.  Everything still depends on who is the coach.  I think Lawrence goes #1.  So, I take the trade down haul and build a team before ruining another young qb.  I would probably keep Darnold and Morgan and see what veterans may be available.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

in that case, i'll leave you to choose. Isaac is a cool name too.

my gp's were from the Alsace/Lorraine area...  where you at?

Alsace/Lorraine touchy subject

I’m in Munich where my mom’s side is from. One of my top 3 all time cities along with Istanbul and Buenos Aires. 

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Thank you for confirming why I don’t really want any of these qbs.  I would be happy with Lawrence, but I’d be happier with the trade down possibilities.  I would be unhappy with Wilson or Fields.  Wilson has a scary injury history and I think Fields gets beat up, just like Cam.  

You’d be unhappy with Wilson or Fields, but are you happy with Darnold? 

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, football guy said:

Justin Fields

• Upside: Cam Newton

Cam Newton was a dual threat QB who struggled to pass in the best of times.  

[Guilhermezmc]

Am i the only one that not see Cam Newton as a comp for Justin Fields?

[Butterfield]

Just now, slimjasi said:

You’d be unhappy with Wilson or Fields, but are you happy with Darnold? 

Didn’t say that.  

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Butterfield said:

I’m not sure.  Everything still depends on who is the coach.  I think Lawrence goes #1.  So, I take the trade down haul and build a team before ruining another young qb.  I would probably keep Darnold and Morgan and see what veterans may be available.  

I was thinking today if there is any precedent for a GM to do this kind of move. It is kind of like the movie “Draft Day” when Costner sticks with a journeyman instead of drafting a QB at #1... that’s all I got lol 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Butterfield said:

Didn’t say that.  

I know, that’s why I asked. 

Are you happy with Darnold going forward? If you don’t want to draft Wilson or Fields, what is your plan at QB? 

[Jet Nut]

7 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Thank you for confirming why I don’t really want any of these qbs.  I would be happy with Lawrence, but I’d be happier with the trade down possibilities.  I would be unhappy with Wilson or Fields.  Wilson has a scary injury history and I think Fields gets beat up, just like Cam.  

You wouldnt want any of these QBs?

Why would Fields get beat up more than Lawrence? 

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Am i the only one that not see Cam Newton as a comp for Justin Fields?

Dont think anyone should. 

 

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

You’d be unhappy with Wilson or Fields, but are you happy with Darnold? 

ur talking to a Branch Samuellian

[football guy]

50 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Thank you OP for this, enjoyed your take on schemes and fit very much. Bates did seem to have Darnold pointing in the right direct, everything went south after that.

You may not have the interest or time but I would love to see your similar evaluation of Trey Lance, scheme and coach fit...

 

I wanted to do Lance but I've only seen him play once. When more becomes available I plan on taking a closer look.

What I can tell you is that Carolina is interested in him.

[football guy]

8 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Am i the only one that not see Cam Newton as a comp for Justin Fields?

MVP Cam is not a slight against Fields by any means. 

People want to compare him to Deshaun, but they're not alike. Dak maybe based on body type and stylistically, but Fields is more athletic with better arm talent/less cerebral at this point. Maybe Steve McNair/Donovan McNabb will make people happy? Not sure. 

[football guy]

15 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Also, not sure about the Herbert comparison.  Not because it might not be accurate, but Herbert is still so new that we don’t even know what he is yet.  

Agreed I hate doing it but it's very hard to find a QB he's similar to. He's a mix of Deshaun and Josh Allen IMO. 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Agreed I hate doing it but it's very hard to find a QB he's similar to. He's a mix of Deshaun and Josh Allen IMO. 

Don’t think Lawrence will grade that well as a runner in Combine. His running ability is overrated IMHO and benefits from defenses being forced to respect the pass. 

[Gangrene]

7 minutes ago, football guy said:

I wanted to do Lance but I've only seen him play once. When more becomes available I plan on taking a closer look.

What I can tell you is that Carolina is interested in him.

Interesting note on Carolina, thanks.

I enjoyed your earlier posts, belated welcome to the board.