Are the Falcons taking a QB? aka we can trade down to 5

[thshadow]

The following seems eminently reasonable (and likely) to me.  Am I wrong / missing something?

Cincy really wants Sewell.  Presumably so does Miami.  So Cincy offers us a haul to move up to 2.  Miami should certainly be willing to give up their 3 to swap with us (instead of letting Cincy trade with us).  But let's say they don't offer enough, and/or they think we're bluffing.  So we take the trade and drop to 5.

Now Miami is on the clock.  Seems like they'd either take Chase or trade back.  I'd think they'd take Chase.  But if they want to trade back - who has more ammo than us?  We should be able to give up a lot less than we got from Cincy to move back up to 3.

But say Miami takes Chase.  Now - does Atlanta want a QB?  It seems to me they'd still think they have a window with Ryan, and wouldn't take a QB.  That leaves them either taking someone else, or trading down.  Again - who has more ammo than us?  If 4 is open for business, we'll happily swap with them.

Getting the QB we want at a lower pick has the further advantage of a smaller cap charge in the future.

And, if something goes horribly wrong, we might have Wilson and Fields graded similarly, and so we'd still get one at 5.  And we'd have three 2022 #1's (Ours, Cincy, and Seattle's), plus whatever else Cincy gave up.

 

[Dunnie]

yes ... trade back to 5 and take Wilson ... i've been preaching this for a week.

[Mackman55]

Hey, I would love to trade down and get Wilson at 5 but it's no sure thing. First of all are you sure Miami won't take a QB? Tua is looking like a QB of limited ability in the downfield passing game in this year and I guarantee Flores will pressure management to get additional talent there. 

Next, I don't think Miami could resist the temptation to trade down when they are offered a massive haul for the #3. in this scenario the Jets would have handed a divisional rival tremendous value and then we're sitting at #3 with no QB to draft. It's a very risky strategy.

This is why the most important game today for Jets fans is the Texan/Titan game where a Texans win pushes the Finns down the draft board and out of the top 5. 

 

[thshadow]

1 hour ago, Mackman55 said:

Next, I don't think Miami could resist the temptation to trade down when they are offered a massive haul for the #3. in this scenario the Jets would have handed a divisional rival tremendous value and then we're sitting at #3 with no QB to draft. It's a very risky strategy.

 

How are we at #3 with no QB to draft?  Or are you saying Miami wouldn't trade with us?  Because we'll certainly be able to make the best offer - and it will still be less than what Cincy gave us.

[Mackman55]

59 minutes ago, thshadow said:

How are we at #3 with no QB to draft?  Or are you saying Miami wouldn't trade with us?  Because we'll certainly be able to make the best offer - and it will still be less than what Cincy gave us.

I'm saying the QB we WANT is gone. 

[Rhg1084]

Don’t do any of this. Stay at 2 and draft Fields

[jgb]

On 1/3/2021 at 2:26 AM, thshadow said:

The following seems eminently reasonable (and likely) to me.  Am I wrong / missing something?

Cincy really wants Sewell.  Presumably so does Miami.  So Cincy offers us a haul to move up to 2.  Miami should certainly be willing to give up their 3 to swap with us (instead of letting Cincy trade with us).  But let's say they don't offer enough, and/or they think we're bluffing.  So we take the trade and drop to 5.

Now Miami is on the clock.  Seems like they'd either take Chase or trade back.  I'd think they'd take Chase.  But if they want to trade back - who has more ammo than us?  We should be able to give up a lot less than we got from Cincy to move back up to 3.

But say Miami takes Chase.  Now - does Atlanta want a QB?  It seems to me they'd still think they have a window with Ryan, and wouldn't take a QB.  That leaves them either taking someone else, or trading down.  Again - who has more ammo than us?  If 4 is open for business, we'll happily swap with them.

Getting the QB we want at a lower pick has the further advantage of a smaller cap charge in the future.

And, if something goes horribly wrong, we might have Wilson and Fields graded similarly, and so we'd still get one at 5.  And we'd have three 2022 #1's (Ours, Cincy, and Seattle's), plus whatever else Cincy gave up.

 

And what if some other team leapfrogs us to get the QB we want?

No. If you have decided on a QB, take him at 2. Do not get cute.

[dcJet]

Trading to two,  costs Cincy their early 2nd and early 3rd.  That's steep for them, especially when there's a good chance that Sewell will just fall in their lap at 5 anyway.  

All it takes is 3 QB's going in the top 4 which is very likely.  Then, one other team taking Chase or the first defensive player off the board.

 

 

 

 

 

[Philc1]

Trade the 2 pick for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones

[FTL Jet Fan]

I am in agreement with MM55 Miami is a wildcard don’t help them in anyway to fill their needs as it would be no surprise if Fields is there they take. 

[nycdan]

9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Trade the 2 pick for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones

And a time machine to go back to 2012.  Then sure.

[JohnnyLV]

I think the top 3 spots will be QBs.

We will not move and select either TL, Fields or Wilson

Miami will do an Arizona and bail on Tua, also not move and select the QB left

There is an outside chance of Jax trading with either MIA or US but they will not leave the Top 3 either.

 

[Philc1]

56 minutes ago, nycdan said:

And a time machine to go back to 2012.  Then sure.

Better than 2023 when we are tanking for Peyton Manning’s kid bro because Fields busted here even harder than Sam

[Philc1]

21 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I think the top 3 spots will be QBs.

We will not move and select either TL, Fields or Wilson

Miami will do an Arizona and bail on Tua, also not move and select the QB left

There is an outside chance of Jax trading with either MIA or US but they will not leave the Top 3 either.

 

Miami is taking Sewell.  We already have zero pass rush now enjoy the next ten years with that guy in the division 

[thshadow]

On 1/4/2021 at 7:09 PM, dcJet said:

Trading to two,  costs Cincy their early 2nd and early 3rd.  That's steep for them, especially when there's a good chance that Sewell will just fall in their lap at 5 anyway.  

There's no way I'd swap picks with them for their 2 and their 3.  I'd expect a 1 next year too.

But maybe you're right, you can't fleece them if they're just trying to get a lineman.

 

[thshadow]

On 1/5/2021 at 12:06 PM, johnnysd said:

I think the top 3 spots will be QBs.

You might be right - but I think there's often a prediction of a run on QBs leading up to the draft.  And it doesn't usually happen.  In fact, correct me if I'm wrong, but the top 3 picks haven't been QBs in - forever?  I'm not even sure when 3 of the top 4 have been QBs.

Without any other info, if I had to bet today, I'd bet that either Wilson or Fields will still be there at 5.  (Obviously if you strongly prefer one to the other, that won't necessarily be much of a consolation.)

[JohnnyLV]

 

1 hour ago, thshadow said:

You might be right - but I think there's often a prediction of a run on QBs leading up to the draft.  And it doesn't usually happen.  In fact, correct me if I'm wrong, but the top 3 picks haven't been QBs in - forever?  I'm not even sure when 3 of the top 4 have been QBs.

Without any other info, if I had to bet today, I'd bet that either Wilson or Fields will still be there at 5.  (Obviously if you strongly prefer one to the other, that won't necessarily be much of a consolation.)

Yeah I can definitely see that. Depends on grades. I actually view Fields and Wilson as very good prospects but Kiper thinks Darnold is still a better prospect than either.

[dcJet]

4 hours ago, thshadow said:

There's no way I'd swap picks with them for their 2 and their 3.  I'd expect a 1 next year too.

But maybe you're right, you can't fleece them if they're just trying to get a lineman.

 

You sent me to the trade charts!    They would owe us 900 points.   That's steep.   2nd, 3rd and 4th this year  Not sure how many points next year's picks would be.  Many mocks have Sewell dropping to them at 5 anyway so I think they would stay put and take Chase as a consolation and keep those picks

Putting myself in their place, if we were Cincy, and we had the 5th pick, and we paid that price to trade up for a tackle, I'd burn my Campbell's Soup paper painter's hat.

 

 

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, johnnysd said:

 

Yeah I can definitely see that. Depends on grades. I actually view Fields and Wilson as very good prospects but Kiper thinks Darnold is still a better prospect than either.

Because he’s right 

[JohnnyLV]

6 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Because he’s right 

I meant better prospect as of right now even with all his struggles and performance to date.

[UntouchableCrew]

IMHO if you are willing to take a QB in the top 5 you take him at 2. Messing around and risking it (even if you think Wilson will make it to 5) makes no sense and is risky.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

IMHO if you are willing to take a QB in the top 5 you take him at 2. Messing around and risking it (even if you think Wilson will make it to 5) makes no sense and is risky.

This.  If we want a QB, take him at 2.  No need to get cute and risk missing out on our guy.  We still have plenty of draft capital.  Dolphins at 3 may not be sold on Tua, Falcons at 4 could decide its time to move on from Ryan.  Or someone could trade up ahead of us and steal our guy.  If we like one of the QBs, take him at 2.  If we don't then trade back if we have that option.

[Jets723]

On 1/3/2021 at 7:49 AM, Dunnie said:

yes ... trade back to 5 and take Wilson ... i've been preaching this for a week.

If Douglas prefers Wilson that would be a outstanding move.  Getting the WB he wants AND adding a lot of draft capital of n top of the extra draft capital we have.  You could build a winner extremely quickly 

[32EBoozer]

On 1/5/2021 at 2:30 PM, nycdan said:

And a time machine to go back to 2012.  Then sure.

You don’t give up a first round pick for time machine! I consider the early third round pick.

[Barkus]

I would be surprised if jets take Sewell at 2. I think it will be either trade back or QB. We need a lot of talent. Trade back but stay in the top 5-10. Can get Darrisaw as top 10 pick to address o-line plus get extra picks. Assuming Douglas does not go QB.