Trevor Lawrence is not a much better prospect than Justin Fields. All objective evidence shows they are equally great yet one is judged on a different standard than the other.

[Jetsbb]

Great article comparing the two and it's written even before Fields great performance vs Clemson where he clearly outplayed Lawrence. The only reason Trevor is considered better is because of timing, biased perception and confirmation bias. To further the points in this article Fields has a better espn QBR and PFF grade in 2019 and 2020 than Trevor. Douglas better not screw this up.

https://saturdaytradition.com/ohio-state-football/trevor-lawrence-isnt-held-to-the-same-standard-as-justin-fields/

If you’ve consumed any sort of sports media over the past few weeks, you’ve been bombarded with the “Tank for Trevor” derby. It’s been a battle to see which team, the New York Jets or Jacksonville Jaguars, can lose more games in order to get the No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and thus select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars, by the way, are officially the NFL’s best loser, much to the delight of their fans.

Anyways, the prevailing opinion ever since Lawrence took over for Kelly Bryant 4 games into the 2018 season and led the Tigers to a national title as a true freshman is that he is the surefire No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft. Analysts rave about Lawrence being the most polished prospect since Andrew Luck, and I have yet to see a mock draft in the last 2 years without him at the top.

Heading into Clemson’s showdown with Ohio State in the College Football Playoff on Friday night, you’d think the Tigers have some great advantage at QB, but that’s just not true. In reality, Lawrence and Justin Fields are near-equals as college players, with the one separator being that Lawrence has a national title on his resume and Fields does not.

While Lawrence could wind up being a terrific NFL quarterback for years, he and Fields are nearly indistinguishable over the last 2 seasons. Here’s a blind resume test:

• Player A: 58 TD passes, 12 INTs, 67.2 completion percentage, 9.26 yards per attempt, 16 rushing TDs, 23-1 record
• Player B: 56 TD passes, 8 INTs, 68.9 completion percentage, 9.25 yards per attempt, 15 rushing TDs, 19-1 record

You can probably guess based off the total games that Lawrence is Player A and Fields is Player B, but isn’t it stunning how close they are in terms of production?

And if you want to dive in a little deeper on those numbers, 4 of the 6 defenses that Fields has faced this season are in the top 31 nationally in terms of yards per pass attempt, while Lawrence has faced just 1 in his 9 games (Miami). In 2019, Fields faced 7 top-30 defenses, while Lawrence faced 3 (Texas A&M, Ohio State and LSU), none of which were even from his own conference. Not surprisingly, Fields also has had a better overall grade from Pro Football Focus in each of the last 2 seasons: 92.4-92.0 this season and 91.5-91.1 last season.

Considering that Lawrence rarely plays in bad weather while playing in substandard passing conditions is a way of life in the Big Ten, Fields has quite the resume.

Given all of that data, it strikes me as odd that Lawrence has never been held to the same standard as Fields. Every mistake from Fields — like his 3-interception game against Indiana — is magnified on sports talk shows and in QB debates and puts him in danger of dropping below BYU’s Zach Wilson or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, while Lawrence can seemingly do no wrong, despite a lot of evidence that Lawrence makes just as many mistakes as Fields. Lawrence, for example, has thrown an interception once every 68.1 passes, while Fields has thrown an interception once every 69.6 passes.

Former NFL QB Trent Dilfer, who runs the prestigious Elite 11 camp for high school QBs, is the first analyst I’ve heard push back on the idea that Lawrence is a perfect prospect, saying recently on The Ryen Russillo Podcast: “The narrative started going a direction about 12 months ago where it’s like, ‘Oh, he has no flaws. He’s perfect.’ Uh, no, he’s not.”

Dilfer went on to describe Lawrence’s long delivery, how Clemson’s offense cuts the field in half and limits Lawrence’s reads and how he can be overconfident with his arm. Russillo, who was surprised, commented: “You pointed out some things we haven’t heard from anyone else.”

 

 

Dilfer went on to sing Fields’ praises and remark that he doesn’t think the gap is as big between Lawrence and Fields as everyone else says it is, referencing a call from an NFL source who said: “I’m watching some Fields tape. I’m early to the party here, and he’s blowing me away. He’s the opposite of what I’m being told he is.”

Dilfer also offered a prediction: “When (NFL scouts) start doing the work and they start diving really deep, deep into every single snap and the why of every single snap, I think you’re going to see the gap close between Lawrence and Fields. It’s going to be one of those either/or, like, ‘I’m fine with either one of them. They’re both going to be incredible in the NFL, so I’m good with either.’ ”

So why don’t you ever hear any mention of Fields in the same breath as Lawrence, other than from Dilfer? Why is Lawrence the obvious choice at No. 1, while Fields is seemingly in danger of being passed up by Wilson (who just lost to Coastal Carolina) and Lance (who played 1 game this season) in the 2021 QB hierarchy? I’m not saying Fields is better, but shouldn’t there at least be a discussion based off what they’ve done the last 2 years?

Fields still has 1 loss as a starting QB — last year to Clemson. It’s funny to think how much different these two would be viewed if Ohio State hadn’t blown a 16-0 lead. When Shaun Wade, who was arguably the top slot corner in the country last year, was controversially called for targeting, the Buckeyes were about to get the ball back late in the first half with a chance to go up 23-0. Instead, Lawrence rallied Clemson to the win.

Maybe if Fields, who is nursing a sprained thumb, can lead Ohio State to an “upset” against Clemson on Friday, the narrative will change and he will make more appearances in the conversation to go No. 1 overall. At this point, though, it feels like everyone’s mind is made up.

[HawkeyeJet]

I've been saying this for like 6 months.  I should start a blog.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've been saying this for like 6 months.  I should start a blog.

Wouldn't you rather be a small fish in a small pond here?

 

[HawkeyeJet]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Wouldn't you be a small fish in a small pond here?

 

More like a minnow.

[peebag]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Wouldn't you rather be a small fish in a small stinky green pond here?

 

fixed that for ya!

[Maxman]

3 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've been saying this for like 6 months.  I should start a blog.

Or you could just blog here. 

[Patriot Killa]

9 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

While Lawrence could wind up being a terrific NFL quarterback for years, he and Fields are nearly indistinguishable over the last 2 seasons. Here’s a blind resume test:

• Player A: 58 TD passes, 12 INTs, 67.2 completion percentage, 9.26 yards per attempt, 16 rushing TDs, 23-1 record
• Player B: 56 TD passes, 8 INTs, 68.9 completion percentage, 9.25 yards per attempt, 15 rushing TDs, 19-1 record

 

I absolutely hate going by college stats. It holds close to no weight in predicting who will translate to the NFL. Haskins threw 50+ TD’s and Geno threw 50 on the dot.

[BigRy56]

Trevor has the benefit of having done it consistently for 3 years. That’s about twice as long as Fields. I think to me that’s the biggest difference

[section314]

5 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

More like a minnow.

"Sit right back and you'll hear a tale, a tale of a fateful trip." ?

[Jet_Engine1]

I think as early as back in September/October,  I mentioned joining the modern NFL and pair Fields with Roman or Smith...

 

I know @JiF was on board....

[mrcoops]

It's almost as if there is some other factor, which I can't quite put my finger on, which is influencing people's ratings of Fields...

What really annoys me is when Fields is pigeon-holed as a "running" QB, when he is actually a quality passer who can run if needed.

If anything, I've seen more designed runs for Lawrence than I have for Fields.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, mrcoops said:

It's almost as if there is some other factor, which I can't quite put my finger on, which is influencing people's ratings of Fields...

What really annoys me is when Fields is pigeon-holed as a "running" QB, when he is actually a quality passer who can run if needed.

If anything, I've seen more designed runs for Lawrence than I have for Fields.

Yeah, anyone calling Fields a "running QB" is just doing some racial profiling. 

Let's get real here. 

[jgb]

12 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

More like a minnow.

But if it weren't for you the big fat tunas on this site would have nothing to eat  

[FidelioJet]

Two things here...

1) The first part of the article is basically pointing to stats - which are mostly meaningless when reviewing a potential NFL prospect.  How good of a QB will that player be in the NFL.

TL is much taller and plays the game, in what looks to be, effortlessly.   

2) Just because Trent Dilfer says it doesn't make it true.  He's wrong more than he's right.

[jgb]

20 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Or you could just blog here. 

Actually that's a good idea. Should find the biggest homer and biggest darksider and do features where they do those "he said/she said" articles.

First topic: Will the Jets hit a homerun or strike out in the new coaching search?

Go!

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I absolutely hate going by college stats. It holds close to no weight in predicting who will translate to the NFL. Haskins threw 50+ TD’s and Geno threw 50 on the dot.

Usually I would agree, but there's a difference in the throws I saw Fields making, total, perfect dimes on the fly for 50+ yards to guys who were actually covered, as opposed to some small conference guy in an Air Raid dumping on Corners that will be delivering for Amazon Prime after college, or dumping off bubble screens and Jet Sweeps to a 5'7" midget 4.3 guy who does all the work (Geno Smith) ? 

 

Fields looks legit,  has the physical talent, has an absolute elite arm, and looked BETTER when he had to stop running and won from the pocket. 

 

 

[section314]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Actually that's a good idea. Should find the biggest homer and biggest darksider and do features where they do those "he said/she said" articles.

First topic: "Will the Jets hit a homerun or strike out in the new coaching search?"

Go!

Kinda like putting Michael Kay with Joe Benigno? This is actually brilliant.?

[Warfish]

Quote

Trevor Lawrence is not a much better prospect than Justin Fields. 

If true, then Jacksonville should be considering Fields then, right?

[Bugg]

14 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

Trevor has the benefit of having done it consistently for 3 years. That’s about twice as long as Fields. I think to me that’s the biggest difference

Bigger sample and on a bigger stage for a longer time. And in fairness the Big 10 is probably a harder conference than the ACC. Doesn't necessarily mean Fields is inferior. 

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If true, then Jacksonville should be considering Fields then, right?

Well in fairness there reports from Albert Breer that they'd trade the pick, so who knows what theyre thinking is.

[Jet_Engine1]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If true, then Jacksonville should be considering Fields then, right?

You don't think they're doing due diligence and looking very closely at ALL of the Quarterbacks? 

[RedBeardedSavage]

I don't know, Fields looked really good after the injury last week.

But nothing I saw from Fields was as good as the throw by Trevor @ 14 seconds on this video.

That's under pressure, off your back foot, and on the outside shoulder where only the receiver could get it. 

Fields has better protection and is routinely off on those deep throws.

Granted, I was lower on Fields before that game, and he definitely showed a lot to be excited about. But I still think Trevor is easily the better prospect. 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

You don't think they're doing due diligence and looking very closely at ALL of the Quarterbacks? 

Oh, I know they are.

I just think it's funny, we have some Jets Fans trying to now convince themselves that Fields ~ Lawrence, but they tend to overlook the fact that if that IS true, they may not get what they're trying to convince themselves they want.

 

[JustInFudge]

Amazing how all this stuff is coming up now as if someone hasnt been saying this right here on this very board since way before the start of college Football this season.

 

 

[QB1]

2 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I don't know, Fields looked really good after the injury last week.

But nothing I saw from Fields was as good as the throw by Trevor @ 14 seconds on this video.

That's under pressure, off your back foot, and on the outside shoulder where only the receiver could get it. 

Fields has better protection and is routinely off on those deep throws.

Granted, I was lower on Fields before that game, and he definitely showed a lot to be excited about. But I still think Trevor is easily the better prospect. 

Routinely off on deep throws? I’ve seen every snap of fields this year and the exact opposite is the case. I can’t remember the last time I saw such accuracy down the field. 

[HawkeyeJet]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Oh, I know they are.

I just think it's funny, we have some Jets Fans trying to now convince themselves that Fields ~ Lawrence, but they tend to overlook the fact that if that IS true, they may not get what they're trying to convince themselves they want.

 

So do you not believe they are not in the same proximity as prospects?  

[JohnnyLV]

41 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Great article comparing the two and it's written even before Fields great performance vs Clemson where he clearly outplayed Lawrence. The only reason Trevor is considered better is because of timing, biased perception and confirmation bias. To further the points in this article Fields has a better espn QBR and PFF grade in 2019 and 2020 than Trevor. Douglas better not screw this up.

https://saturdaytradition.com/ohio-state-football/trevor-lawrence-isnt-held-to-the-same-standard-as-justin-fields/

If you’ve consumed any sort of sports media over the past few weeks, you’ve been bombarded with the “Tank for Trevor” derby. It’s been a battle to see which team, the New York Jets or Jacksonville Jaguars, can lose more games in order to get the No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and thus select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars, by the way, are officially the NFL’s best loser, much to the delight of their fans.

Anyways, the prevailing opinion ever since Lawrence took over for Kelly Bryant 4 games into the 2018 season and led the Tigers to a national title as a true freshman is that he is the surefire No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft. Analysts rave about Lawrence being the most polished prospect since Andrew Luck, and I have yet to see a mock draft in the last 2 years without him at the top.

Heading into Clemson’s showdown with Ohio State in the College Football Playoff on Friday night, you’d think the Tigers have some great advantage at QB, but that’s just not true. In reality, Lawrence and Justin Fields are near-equals as college players, with the one separator being that Lawrence has a national title on his resume and Fields does not.

While Lawrence could wind up being a terrific NFL quarterback for years, he and Fields are nearly indistinguishable over the last 2 seasons. Here’s a blind resume test:

• Player A: 58 TD passes, 12 INTs, 67.2 completion percentage, 9.26 yards per attempt, 16 rushing TDs, 23-1 record
• Player B: 56 TD passes, 8 INTs, 68.9 completion percentage, 9.25 yards per attempt, 15 rushing TDs, 19-1 record

You can probably guess based off the total games that Lawrence is Player A and Fields is Player B, but isn’t it stunning how close they are in terms of production?

And if you want to dive in a little deeper on those numbers, 4 of the 6 defenses that Fields has faced this season are in the top 31 nationally in terms of yards per pass attempt, while Lawrence has faced just 1 in his 9 games (Miami). In 2019, Fields faced 7 top-30 defenses, while Lawrence faced 3 (Texas A&M, Ohio State and LSU), none of which were even from his own conference. Not surprisingly, Fields also has had a better overall grade from Pro Football Focus in each of the last 2 seasons: 92.4-92.0 this season and 91.5-91.1 last season.

Considering that Lawrence rarely plays in bad weather while playing in substandard passing conditions is a way of life in the Big Ten, Fields has quite the resume.

Given all of that data, it strikes me as odd that Lawrence has never been held to the same standard as Fields. Every mistake from Fields — like his 3-interception game against Indiana — is magnified on sports talk shows and in QB debates and puts him in danger of dropping below BYU’s Zach Wilson or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, while Lawrence can seemingly do no wrong, despite a lot of evidence that Lawrence makes just as many mistakes as Fields. Lawrence, for example, has thrown an interception once every 68.1 passes, while Fields has thrown an interception once every 69.6 passes.

Former NFL QB Trent Dilfer, who runs the prestigious Elite 11 camp for high school QBs, is the first analyst I’ve heard push back on the idea that Lawrence is a perfect prospect, saying recently on The Ryen Russillo Podcast: “The narrative started going a direction about 12 months ago where it’s like, ‘Oh, he has no flaws. He’s perfect.’ Uh, no, he’s not.”

Dilfer went on to describe Lawrence’s long delivery, how Clemson’s offense cuts the field in half and limits Lawrence’s reads and how he can be overconfident with his arm. Russillo, who was surprised, commented: “You pointed out some things we haven’t heard from anyone else.”

 

 

Dilfer went on to sing Fields’ praises and remark that he doesn’t think the gap is as big between Lawrence and Fields as everyone else says it is, referencing a call from an NFL source who said: “I’m watching some Fields tape. I’m early to the party here, and he’s blowing me away. He’s the opposite of what I’m being told he is.”

Dilfer also offered a prediction: “When (NFL scouts) start doing the work and they start diving really deep, deep into every single snap and the why of every single snap, I think you’re going to see the gap close between Lawrence and Fields. It’s going to be one of those either/or, like, ‘I’m fine with either one of them. They’re both going to be incredible in the NFL, so I’m good with either.’ ”

So why don’t you ever hear any mention of Fields in the same breath as Lawrence, other than from Dilfer? Why is Lawrence the obvious choice at No. 1, while Fields is seemingly in danger of being passed up by Wilson (who just lost to Coastal Carolina) and Lance (who played 1 game this season) in the 2021 QB hierarchy? I’m not saying Fields is better, but shouldn’t there at least be a discussion based off what they’ve done the last 2 years?

Fields still has 1 loss as a starting QB — last year to Clemson. It’s funny to think how much different these two would be viewed if Ohio State hadn’t blown a 16-0 lead. When Shaun Wade, who was arguably the top slot corner in the country last year, was controversially called for targeting, the Buckeyes were about to get the ball back late in the first half with a chance to go up 23-0. Instead, Lawrence rallied Clemson to the win.

Maybe if Fields, who is nursing a sprained thumb, can lead Ohio State to an “upset” against Clemson on Friday, the narrative will change and he will make more appearances in the conversation to go No. 1 overall. At this point, though, it feels like everyone’s mind is made up.

I don't disagree. I have actually never been that impressed by Lawrence. What I will say is that Wilson is every bit as good of a prospect as these two as well. He is certainly the best passed or the group. I have a hard time not seeing the draft go QB in the first 3 picks this year. I would prefer Wilson, but it will largely be up to new head coach. If we choose Roman can't imagine we don't pick fields, Joe Brady might prefer Wilson,

[Patriot Killa]

23 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Usually I would agree, but there's a difference in the throws I saw Fields making, total, perfect dimes on the fly for 50+ yards to guys who were actually covered, as opposed to some small conference guy in an Air Raid dumping on Corners that will be delivering for Amazon Prime after college, or dumping off bubble screens and Jet Sweeps to a 5'7" midget 4.3 guy who does all the work (Geno Smith) ? 

 

Fields looks legit,  has the physical talent, has an absolute elite arm, and looked BETTER when he had to stop running and won from the pocket. 

 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely agree on Fields. I’ve had my concerns and questions about his internal clock and reading progressions, but I think he is well worth the risk if JD believes in him. A 6 TD game is impressive no matter if you play for OSU or not. I just think there are better, more reliable ways if you were to argue Lawrence = Fields as prospects.

I think Lawrence does has a small edge due to experience and success,  but Fields can certainly make a case for himself with a statement championship win against the same team Trevor beat. It’s one of the weaker Bama defenses but probably one of the more efficient Bama offenses I can remember them having. The deep ball looks good this season, Mac’s throwing a lot more bombs than Tua ever attempted and Smith is reeling them in lol.

[RedBeardedSavage]

4 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Routinely off on deep throws? I’ve seen every snap of fields this year and the exact opposite is the case. I can’t remember the last time I saw such accuracy down the field. 

Fields' ball placement is a concern for me, that early pass to Wilson down the sideline where everyone was saying "wow what a strike" should've been an easy touchdown if placed properly. He also missed a wide-open Olave streaking down the seam a few drives later.

For a guy with clearly the best offensive line in college football that has two WR's that routinely get open deep, that concerns me. 

[sec101row23]

Had Trevor not won the Natty as a true freshman this “generational” narrative would have been different IMO.  

[Ben Had]

31 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, anyone calling Fields a "running QB" is just doing some racial profiling. 

Let's get real here. 

You and 95% of this board did it for Josh Allen...lol

[cjsaus44]

11 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Routinely off on deep throws? I’ve seen every snap of fields this year and the exact opposite is the case. I can’t remember the last time I saw such accuracy down the field. 

100% on this. 

I'd say if you want to cite that game last Friday, the two most glaring things were:

Fields routinely had to go thru 2+ reads, and throws all over the field accurately.

Lawrence locks in on one guy, struggles past a first or second read, and throws mostly to half the field.

Ability to go thru reads with pocket presence is #1 for me if arm strength and accuracy are there.

Bonus: Fields is a tough SOB.

[QB1]

5 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Fields' ball placement is a concern for me, that early pass to Wilson down the sideline where everyone was saying "wow what a strike" should've been an easy touchdown if placed properly. He also missed a wide-open Olave streaking down the seam a few drives later.

For a guy with clearly the best offensive line in college football that has two WR's that routinely get open deep, that concerns me. 

So you're basing this off two throws, one that was a completion.  Name one QB that is 100% from deep. Id suggest you watch more tape. 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Ben Had said:

You and 95% of this board did it for Josh Allen...lol

Uhm:

A) I don't remember ever calling Josh Allen a "running QB" - What I do remember saying during his rookie year was that his accuracy was atrocious and that Sam would be better (whoops)

b) Folks mockingly calling Josh Allen a running back has no bearing on whether or not Fields is predominantly a running QB. (He's not)

[section314]

6 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Fields' ball placement is a concern for me, that early pass to Wilson down the sideline where everyone was saying "wow what a strike" should've been an easy touchdown if placed properly. He also missed a wide-open Olave streaking down the seam a few drives later.

For a guy with clearly the best offensive line in college football that has two WR's that routinely get open deep, that concerns me. 

I'm far from a scout, or a QB talent evaluator, but from what I've seen, Wilson has by far the best ball placement of the three, and it's not even close.