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Trevor Lawrence is not a much better prospect than Justin Fields. All objective evidence shows they are equally great yet one is judged on a different standard than the other.


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4 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Great article comparing the two and it's written even before Fields great performance vs Clemson where he clearly outplayed Lawrence. The only reason Trevor is considered better is because of timing, biased perception and confirmation bias. To further the points in this article Fields has a better espn QBR and PFF grade in 2019 and 2020 than Trevor. Douglas better not screw this up.

https://saturdaytradition.com/ohio-state-football/trevor-lawrence-isnt-held-to-the-same-standard-as-justin-fields/

If you’ve consumed any sort of sports media over the past few weeks, you’ve been bombarded with the “Tank for Trevor” derby. It’s been a battle to see which team, the New York Jets or Jacksonville Jaguars, can lose more games in order to get the No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft and thus select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars, by the way, are officially the NFL’s best loser, much to the delight of their fans.

Anyways, the prevailing opinion ever since Lawrence took over for Kelly Bryant 4 games into the 2018 season and led the Tigers to a national title as a true freshman is that he is the surefire No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft. Analysts rave about Lawrence being the most polished prospect since Andrew Luck, and I have yet to see a mock draft in the last 2 years without him at the top.

Heading into Clemson’s showdown with Ohio State in the College Football Playoff on Friday night, you’d think the Tigers have some great advantage at QB, but that’s just not true. In reality, Lawrence and Justin Fields are near-equals as college players, with the one separator being that Lawrence has a national title on his resume and Fields does not.

While Lawrence could wind up being a terrific NFL quarterback for years, he and Fields are nearly indistinguishable over the last 2 seasons. Here’s a blind resume test:

  • Player A: 58 TD passes, 12 INTs, 67.2 completion percentage, 9.26 yards per attempt, 16 rushing TDs, 23-1 record
  • Player B: 56 TD passes, 8 INTs, 68.9 completion percentage, 9.25 yards per attempt, 15 rushing TDs, 19-1 record

You can probably guess based off the total games that Lawrence is Player A and Fields is Player B, but isn’t it stunning how close they are in terms of production?

And if you want to dive in a little deeper on those numbers, 4 of the 6 defenses that Fields has faced this season are in the top 31 nationally in terms of yards per pass attempt, while Lawrence has faced just 1 in his 9 games (Miami). In 2019, Fields faced 7 top-30 defenses, while Lawrence faced 3 (Texas A&M, Ohio State and LSU), none of which were even from his own conference. Not surprisingly, Fields also has had a better overall grade from Pro Football Focus in each of the last 2 seasons: 92.4-92.0 this season and 91.5-91.1 last season.
Considering that Lawrence rarely plays in bad weather while playing in substandard passing conditions is a way of life in the Big Ten, Fields has quite the resume.

Given all of that data, it strikes me as odd that Lawrence has never been held to the same standard as Fields. Every mistake from Fields — like his 3-interception game against Indiana — is magnified on sports talk shows and in QB debates and puts him in danger of dropping below BYU’s Zach Wilson or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, while Lawrence can seemingly do no wrong, despite a lot of evidence that Lawrence makes just as many mistakes as Fields. Lawrence, for example, has thrown an interception once every 68.1 passes, while Fields has thrown an interception once every 69.6 passes.

Former NFL QB Trent Dilfer, who runs the prestigious Elite 11 camp for high school QBs, is the first analyst I’ve heard push back on the idea that Lawrence is a perfect prospect, saying recently on The Ryen Russillo Podcast: “The narrative started going a direction about 12 months ago where it’s like, ‘Oh, he has no flaws. He’s perfect.’ Uh, no, he’s not.”

Dilfer went on to describe Lawrence’s long delivery, how Clemson’s offense cuts the field in half and limits Lawrence’s reads and how he can be overconfident with his arm. Russillo, who was surprised, commented: “You pointed out some things we haven’t heard from anyone else.”

 

 

Dilfer went on to sing Fields’ praises and remark that he doesn’t think the gap is as big between Lawrence and Fields as everyone else says it is, referencing a call from an NFL source who said: “I’m watching some Fields tape. I’m early to the party here, and he’s blowing me away. He’s the opposite of what I’m being told he is.”

Dilfer also offered a prediction: “When (NFL scouts) start doing the work and they start diving really deep, deep into every single snap and the why of every single snap, I think you’re going to see the gap close between Lawrence and Fields. It’s going to be one of those either/or, like, ‘I’m fine with either one of them. They’re both going to be incredible in the NFL, so I’m good with either.’ ”

So why don’t you ever hear any mention of Fields in the same breath as Lawrence, other than from Dilfer? Why is Lawrence the obvious choice at No. 1, while Fields is seemingly in danger of being passed up by Wilson (who just lost to Coastal Carolina) and Lance (who played 1 game this season) in the 2021 QB hierarchy? I’m not saying Fields is better, but shouldn’t there at least be a discussion based off what they’ve done the last 2 years?

Fields still has 1 loss as a starting QB — last year to Clemson. It’s funny to think how much different these two would be viewed if Ohio State hadn’t blown a 16-0 lead. When Shaun Wade, who was arguably the top slot corner in the country last year, was controversially called for targeting, the Buckeyes were about to get the ball back late in the first half with a chance to go up 23-0. Instead, Lawrence rallied Clemson to the win.

Maybe if Fields, who is nursing a sprained thumb, can lead Ohio State to an “upset” against Clemson on Friday, the narrative will change and he will make more appearances in the conversation to go No. 1 overall. At this point, though, it feels like everyone’s mind is made up.

Total BS wishful thinking.  TL will be a HOF QB.  Fields will fizzle out and be called a bust before his rookie contract is up.  

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I've been saying this for like 6 months.  I should start a blog.

Great article comparing the two and it's written even before Fields great performance vs Clemson where he clearly outplayed Lawrence. The only reason Trevor is considered better is because of timing,

It's almost as if there is some other factor, which I can't quite put my finger on, which is influencing people's ratings of Fields... What really annoys me is when Fields is pigeon-holed as a "r

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4 hours ago, nycdan said:

Wilson throws a pretty pass.  But every highlight reel I watched of him, his WRs were WIDE open.  They just didn't play the level of competition that OSU and Clemson did and that gives me some pause about how he would fair against NFL defensive backs and rushers.

We must be watching a different Wilson because the opposite is true, his WR’s are rarely gaining any separation. The TE there is really good but other than that not sure he has much NFL talent around him at all

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3 hours ago, win4ever said:

From what I've seen myself, I don't think they are that far away. I don't like to use stats quite as much because talent level can cause mismatches. For example, look at Tua's stats last year with an entire field of No. 1 guys at his disposal. From the tape.

- Lawrence has a better arm, much like those Darnold/Allen conversations from years past. They both have very good arms but then Lawrence makes a "oh he made that" throw in there. Fields has a very good arm, but he's a step below Lawrence.

- Fields is a better at down field throws, because he has great trajectory. If we're talking about down field passing, we have to talk about angles. Even if the defender is behind by a step, the angle of the pass has to be over that guy. A guy that does this consistently is Russel Wilson, essentially throwing a rainfall deep ball. For a specific example, Joe Flacco's pass against the Broncos in the playoffs few years ago. This is an extremely valuable tool.

- Lawrence is better off platform. We heard this with Darnold and how he was good throwing off platform in a crowded pocket. It didn't work out, but that is a trait that can help. Fields tends to have cleaner mechanics and pockets, so you don't see it as much on tape. I feel Lawrence throws better on the run.

- Fields is the better NFL runner, because he's elusive. Lawrence is a very good athlete, but he's a physical runner and that's just asking to get injured in the NFL. If you want an RPO based offense, you want someone closer to Murray/Wilson than Allen/RB. Essentially a guy that can make people miss in the open field and prevent hits than someone who can push through a pile.

- Surrounding "talent" is really hard to decipher. Ohio State has the better surrounding talent around Fields, and I don't think it's close. However, Clemson's system protects QB stats much more with horizontal outlets, whereas Ohio State pushes it down the field, which takes away some of the easy stats.

The part that we don't know is how they are dissecting the play mentally, and how they read defenses.

- Lawrence has more freedom at the line of scrimmage, I see him calling more audibles, so I think he has a better concept at the LoS.

I don't think Lawrence is on another tier as the media portrays. In a weird way, it kinda reminds me of the Luck draft, but instead of RGIII, it's Luck vs. Wilson as prospects.


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I think the thing people constantly overlook is the importance of good footwork. It was the thing that jumped out about Sam in college and guess what it’s been his undoing as a pro. To me Fields(and Wilson) show they have good feet and proper technique. Both will set their feet and step up into the pocket and deliver. Lawrence to me is much more suspect and skittish and is often throwing off balance or off his back foot. He still makes some great throws but to me I don’t see enough good footwork from TL. To me he’s a lot like Darnold in that respect, you can get away with it in college if you have guys wide open but in the NFL it might be an issue

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3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

I remember when Marcus Mariota was getting called a faster Russell Wilson here

 

Watch the Clemson game.  Sermon dominated the defense sold out to stop him and Fields had first reads open all night long - not happening in the nfl he will bust 

 

Why not just draft a top ranked running back prospect so he has the threat of the run game in the NFL?  In fact I don't care what QB we take we need to provide them with a weapon out of the backfield.   I noticed you have not mentioned how having Etienne has made TL life so much easier. 

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4 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

 

 

 

 

JT O'Sullivan does a good breakdown of the good and bad of each QB.  Both are great prospects with different flaws.  It will depend on offensive fit and coaching to see if those flaws can be corrected or minimized in the NFL.

please quit giving coaqches all the credit for the atheletss achivements.

its bogus af. Herebert is good cos Anthony Lynn? fkawf.

 

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Just now, Losmeister said:

please quit giving coaqches all the credit for the atheletss achivements.

its bogus af. Herebert is good cos Anthony Lynn? fkawf.

 

Sam is really as good as Aaron Rodgers its just cos he doesnt play for GB that he is the worst QB in the NFL.

 

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1 hour ago, JetBlue said:

not mentioned how having Etienne has made TL life so much easier. 

prev Champ game vs Ostate he took 3 yd passes and turned them into 30+ and 50+ yd TDs

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7 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Interesting read. Well Fields has better accuracy and a better deep ball than Lawrence. So there’s that. Both seem like similar athletes. What is it that Lawrence does better then Fields?

Greater potential for herbal essence sponsorship.

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9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Tell me why the last 10 straight Ohio State QBs have been utter trash in the nfl 

That means nothing.  The player matters more than the program they come from.

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10 hours ago, JetBlue said:

Why not just draft a top ranked running back prospect so he has the threat of the run game in the NFL?  

Set up the pass with the run? Did you just take a time machine here from 1942?

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6 hours ago, adb280z said:

That means nothing.  

Same program, same offensive playbook, basically same coaching staff and also had studs at all skill positions as Barrett, Jones and Haskins

 

but yeah, irrelevant!

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6 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Set up the pass with the run? Did you just take a time machine here from 1942?

Nope, just watching what every good team has.  A very good running game.  KC, TN, Pitt, Tampa, etc.   The best thing you can do for a young quarterback, is to give him a good running game to take some pressure off and utilize play action.   I can't believe I actually have to be saying this.  The game of football has not changed as much as you think.  You still have to run the ball to be successful long term.  Also you do realize that the top running backs today are also excellent pass receivers too right?  Seems like that would be a good thing to have for a young quarterback. 

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23 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I've been saying this for like 6 months.  I should start a blog.

 

23 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Had Trevor not won the Natty as a true freshman this “generational” narrative would have been different IMO.  

 

23 hours ago, JiF said:

Amazing how all this stuff is coming up now as if someone hasnt been saying this right here on this very board since way before the start of college Football this season.

 

 

Don't leave me!!!!! @Beerfish and I have been right there with yall since before the college season even started!

We should start our own group: The AGM. Anti Generational Militia. Fighting the good fight and using objective and quantifiable reasoning to inform our fellow JNers about the overblown Generational hype!

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On 1/5/2021 at 10:08 AM, Jetsbb said:

Great article comparing the two and it's written even before Fields great performance vs Clemson where he clearly outplayed Lawrence. The only reason Trevor is considered better is because of timing, biased perception and confirmation bias. To further the points in this article Fields has a better espn QBR and PFF grade in 2019 and 2020 than Trevor. Douglas better not screw this up.

https://saturdaytradition.com/ohio-state-football/trevor-lawrence-isnt-held-to-the-same-standard-as-justin-fields/

 

One of the big difference for me is that Trevor Lawrence can play in any system in the NFL.  He makes the players around him better.

Justin Fields needs to be in the correct system. Probably similar to a Shanahan system. He could be really good but it largely depends on his landing spot and the system he is asked to run.  In the right system, Fields does make the players around him better.  In the wrong system (west coast short accuracy game), this guy is a bust.  

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After watching Trevor Lawrence sitting on the turf last week, trying to convince people that laying a hand on top of a football constitutes possession (this isn't Rugby dude) 

I can absolutely see TL not being better than Fields. He has more arm talent and is taller but he might not be better or tougher or a better fit in NY/NJ 

the real question is how do both of these QB's compare to Sewell

to use the EA NCAA 11 grading scale, if TL is a 94 overall, maybe Fields is 93 (or 95 if you believe he's better than TL), why are we even talking QB if Sewell is a 99? 

 

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On 1/6/2021 at 5:24 AM, Philc1 said:

Same program, same offensive playbook, basically same coaching staff and also had studs at all skill positions as Barrett, Jones and Haskins

 

but yeah, irrelevant!

It is irrelevant.  How many good QBs came before and after Brady at Michigan or Brees at Perdue?  What about before Mahomes at Texas Tech?  Allen at Wyoming?  Herbert at Oregon?  Hopefully you get the point.

 

Evaluate the player not the program.

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Lawref

On 1/6/2021 at 12:27 PM, bitonti said:

After watching Trevor Lawrence sitting on the turf last week, trying to convince people that laying a hand on top of a football constitutes possession (this isn't Rugby dude) 

I can absolutely see TL not being better than Fields. He has more arm talent and is taller but he might not be better or tougher or a better fit in NY/NJ 

the real question is how do both of these QB's compare to Sewell

to use the EA NCAA 11 grading scale, if TL is a 94 overall, maybe Fields is 93 (or 95 if you believe he's better than TL), why are we even talking QB if Sewell is a 99? 

 

the Jets are taking a QB at 2.

There is really no other option.  The idea of taking a T is fun....and I would love to be in a luxurious position to take a T at 2, a year after you took one at 11...Unfortunately, the Jets are NOT there.

The Jets are taking a QB at 2.  

You can hear all the rumors you want, pretend like the new HC has a choice, listen to all the media you want, look into everything you can..I say good for you..

Bottom line...

The Jets are taking a QB at 2. 

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23 minutes ago, adb280z said:

It is irrelevant.  How many good QBs came before and after Brady at Michigan or Brees at Perdue?  What about before Mahomes at Texas Tech?  Allen at Wyoming?  Herbert at Oregon?  Hopefully you get the point.

 

Evaluate the player not the program.

In three years all of these knuckleheads will be telling us how stupid the Jets were for passing on the obvious lock Zach Wilson.

 

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20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

In three years all of these knuckleheads will be telling us how stupid the Jets were for passing on the obvious lock Zach Wilson.

 

Way too tiny small to be a NFL QB.

JD would be roasted if the Jets draft Zack Wilson.

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Just now, Irish Jet said:

I look forward to bumping this in three years.

Lawrence is such a better prospect that it literally hurts. He will be elite. Feilds being a bust is a coin toss. At best.

Amazing argument. 

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19 minutes ago, hungry jackson said:

Way too tiny small to be a NFL QB.

JD would be roasted if the Jets draft Zack Wilson.

False. 

Zach WIlson is 6'3 210 lbs. 

He is taller than Lamar Jackson and weighs more than Drew Brees. He is literally in the dead middle of the pack for NFL QB heights, and on the lower end of weight, which can be changed in the weight room. 

In college, he could scramble like Lamar, and throw it like Brees. If his talent translates to the NFL and he is any mixture of those guys, it would be a home run pick.

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5 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Lawref

the Jets are taking a QB at 2.

There is really no other option.  The idea of taking a T is fun....and I would love to be in a luxurious position to take a T at 2, a year after you took one at 11...Unfortunately, the Jets are NOT there.

The Jets are taking a QB at 2.  

You can hear all the rumors you want, pretend like the new HC has a choice, listen to all the media you want, look into everything you can..I say good for you..

Bottom line...

The Jets are taking a QB at 2. 

Would you like to bet on it 

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4 hours ago, JTJet said:

False. 

Zach WIlson is 6'3 210 lbs. 

He is taller than Lamar Jackson and weighs more than Drew Brees. He is literally in the dead middle of the pack for NFL QB heights, and on the lower end of weight, which can be changed in the weight room. 

In college, he could scramble like Lamar, and throw it like Brees. If his talent translates to the NFL and he is any mixture of those guys, it would be a home run pick.

6'3" 205 is lanky for a guy who tore 2 labrums already. Darnold has like 25 pounds of muscle on Wilson, who spent most last year working out with resistance bands instead of weights 

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On 1/5/2021 at 10:30 PM, THE BARON said:

Total BS wishful thinking.  TL will be a HOF QB.  Fields will fizzle out and be called a bust before his rookie contract is up.  

The Fields Flavor of the Month thing is wishful thinking at its best

 

1.5 years of experience as a starter in the college.  Yeah that usually works out in the NFL

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6 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Lawref

the Jets are taking a QB at 2.

There is really no other option.  The idea of taking a T is fun....and I would love to be in a luxurious position to take a T at 2, a year after you took one at 11...Unfortunately, the Jets are NOT there.

The Jets are taking a QB at 2.  

You can hear all the rumors you want, pretend like the new HC has a choice, listen to all the media you want, look into everything you can..I say good for you..

Bottom line...

The Jets are taking a QB at 2. 

Trade for Wentz and have him compete with Sam

 

There is no need to reach for Haskins 2.0

 

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It's almost as if there is some other factor, which I can't quite put my finger on, which is influencing people's ratings of Fields...
What really annoys me is when Fields is pigeon-holed as a "running" QB, when he is actually a quality passer who can run if needed.
If anything, I've seen more designed runs for Lawrence than I have for Fields.

He’s black. That’s it.
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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

6'3" 205 is lanky for a guy who tore 2 labrums already. Darnold has like 25 pounds of muscle on Wilson, who spent most last year working out with resistance bands instead of weights 

And yet darnold still managed to tear his labrum 2x while on the jets i think.  

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