Breaking Down a Play: Why I don't trust twitter talking heads and trust my eyes instead

[football guy]

First, let me say that I really like Michael Nania and all the work the guys do at Jets X-Factor. With that said, this play right here is why I trust my own eyes rather than the stat sheets and what the pundits have to say... 

At first glance, this looks like an extremely risky play, one that was thrown to the wheel (Ty Johnson) that just happened to be "robbed" by Jamison Crowder. In reality, there was a lot more going on in this pllay that the average fan doesn't recognize. Let's break it down... 

Jets have 11-man personnel on this play. On the left (can't see) you have the Z-receiver (off-line on sideline) and the Y-receiver (slot, Crowder). Play is favored to the right side of the formation, with Y-TE lined up in-line next to the RT, the RB to the right of the QB, and the X-receiver lined up on the LOS but close to the formation. The play is designed for Perriman. This is somewhat like a "mesh" concept; have your Y-WR and Y-TE receivers run "crossing" routes in the middle of the field (in this case Crowder and Herndon), with the X-WR running a sluggo route and your RB running a wheel as your outlet pass. In theory, if the sluggo is ran perfectly the receiver should be wide open right after he makes his break because the FS will be caught up with either the Z (not in the clip) or the Y. At the same time, the mesh forces the LBs best positioned to cover the RB to bite on the Y-TE. If the corner lined up over the X bites, then the RB will be wide open. If the corner doesn't bite on the X but the safety does and isn't fooled by the sloggo, it should clear out enough space over the top whether he's one-on-one with a LB or the CB covering the flat. If neither are open you have your TE on the hitch route as a 3rd option, and either your crossing Y-WR or Z-WR (running a go) as your 4th/5th options.  

Darnold's processing on this play: 

1. Identify coverage. Are they in zone, man? Cover-1, cover-2? Pretty much the basic measures. 
2. Identify the defensive formation in the front 7 and protection. Are they overloading a blitz on the right? If so, the play is in trouble because you have both your TE and RB going out for passes without chipping, so either the ball will have to come out quickly if he's sticking with the play or they should audible out. He stuck with the play. 
3. Takes the snap - looking to see how the coverage reacts to Perriman. Immediately sees the CB take the RB, and the LB takes Perriman. This should indicate Perriman will be open.
4. Sam thinks he has it but the timing is slightly off and GVR gets beat in the interior; Perriman not ready for the ball and if Sam waits he senses he's going to get sacked. Forced to roll out - the play is going off script. 
5. Sam rolls right, and now he's looking to see if he can hit his RB running the wheel. It's not there; simultaneously the DL flips off the line and is running parallel with Darnold, right in his face. 
6. Once Sam gathers himself outside the pocket (around the 3,5 second mark), he shifts his eyes from the RB either to Perriman or Crowder. It's at this point that Sam recognizes the two deep S's are eliminating Perriman, whose already made his break and headed upfield. The LB is covering Herndon, who improvises once he notices Sam has rolled out of the pocket. Because of that, Sam senses Crowder will be wide-open, however, trying to fit it in will be extremely difficult with a DL in his face and the LB still in a position to defend the pass.  
7. Darnold hesitates and thinks about making the throw, but still doesn't have enough space from the defender. By this point, the deep S sees Sam reset his eyes on Crowder, but is still 20 yards away. Crowder adjusts by fading deeper downfield to make some space from the LB. 
8. At the 5 second mark, Sam is readying himself to throw. He thinks the corner is covering Ty Johnson deep, but doesn't realize that the CB covering Johnson is still able to cheat by turning around 3 times to see what Sam is doing and where he's looking. That allows him to pick up Crowder. The S and the CB are on the same page; the S isn't going to pursue Crowder because he's too far away and it will leave the top of the field open, and the CB is in the best position to cover the zone which Sam is looking at and trusts the S to cover the RB hence why he turns around. 
9. This is where Sam's instincts/anticipation/gunslinger mentality are on full display. Having developed timing and rapport with Crowder, he knows Crowder can make the sideline grabs in his sleep (except in the 2019 Baltimore game, which Crowder still redeemed himself). He's not worried about Crowder getting to the sideline, but Sam has to throw it in a spot that was short enough where the defender couldn't establish his feet but also deep enough for Crowder to make a play on it; any shorter and its an incomplete pass; any deeper and it's intercepted. 
10. Sam makes an anticipatory throw; the defender can't jump the pass because he was running the other way (thus can only establish his feet and wait for the ball); Crowder reads his QB perfectly and makes a great play on the ball. 

 

[BroadwayRay]

Sam is done.

[Spoot-Face]

Oh, I can see it now.

I guess Sam doesn't suck after all.

[QB1]

I agree that it was a good play. This fan base is at the point with Darnold that there are no positives. 

I think JD has a much higher estimation of Darnold than the fan base. 

Nania is clueless.

[Charlie Brown]

To the the @football guy thank you so much for this but for better or worst, the vast majority of us have already written Sam Darnold off.

What you show is that we often think we know what is going on out there on the field when we really are often clueless.

[RedBeardedSavage]

"Fields is amazing. Darnold is terrible."

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Still a dumb and unnecessary risk to take. Sam thinks he's able throw more to his left but it floats right, thats why Crowder has to come down a couple yards and step in front of the defender. It's an ill advised throw. Crowder bailed him out. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

39 minutes ago, football guy said:

First, let me say that I really like Michael Nania and all the work the guys do at Jets X-Factor. With that said, this play right here is why I trust my own eyes rather than the stat sheets and what the pundits have to say... 

At first glance, this looks like an extremely risky play, one that was thrown to the wheel (Ty Johnson) that just happened to be "robbed" by Jamison Crowder. In reality, there was a lot more going on in this pllay that the average fan doesn't recognize. Let's break it down... 

Jets have 11-man personnel on this play. On the left (can't see) you have the Z-receiver (off-line on sideline) and the Y-receiver (slot, Crowder). Play is favored to the right side of the formation, with Y-TE lined up in-line next to the RT, the RB to the right of the QB, and the X-receiver lined up on the LOS but close to the formation. The play is designed for Perriman. This is somewhat like a "mesh" concept; have your Y-WR and Y-TE receivers run "crossing" routes in the middle of the field (in this case Crowder and Herndon), with the X-WR running a sluggo route and your RB running a wheel as your outlet pass. In theory, if the sluggo is ran perfectly the receiver should be wide open right after he makes his break because the FS will be caught up with either the Z (not in the clip) or the Y. At the same time, the mesh forces the LBs best positioned to cover the RB to bite on the Y-TE. If the corner lined up over the X bites, then the RB will be wide open. If the corner doesn't bite on the X but the safety does and isn't fooled by the sloggo, it should clear out enough space over the top whether he's one-on-one with a LB or the CB covering the flat. If neither are open you have your TE on the hitch route as a 3rd option, and either your crossing Y-WR or Z-WR (running a go) as your 4th/5th options.  

Darnold's processing on this play: 

1. Identify coverage. Are they in zone, man? Cover-1, cover-2? Pretty much the basic measures. 
2. Identify the defensive formation in the front 7 and protection. Are they overloading a blitz on the right? If so, the play is in trouble because you have both your TE and RB going out for passes without chipping, so either the ball will have to come out quickly if he's sticking with the play or they should audible out. He stuck with the play. 
3. Takes the snap - looking to see how the coverage reacts to Perriman. Immediately sees the CB take the RB, and the LB takes Perriman. This should indicate Perriman will be open.
4. Sam thinks he has it but the timing is slightly off and GVR gets beat in the interior; Perriman not ready for the ball and if Sam waits he senses he's going to get sacked. Forced to roll out - the play is going off script. 
5. Sam rolls right, and now he's looking to see if he can hit his RB running the wheel. It's not there; simultaneously the DL flips off the line and is running parallel with Darnold, right in his face. 
6. Once Sam gathers himself outside the pocket (around the 3,5 second mark), he shifts his eyes from the RB either to Perriman or Crowder. It's at this point that Sam recognizes the two deep S's are eliminating Perriman, whose already made his break and headed upfield. The LB is covering Herndon, who improvises once he notices Sam has rolled out of the pocket. Because of that, Sam senses Crowder will be wide-open, however, trying to fit it in will be extremely difficult with a DL in his face and the LB still in a position to defend the pass.  
7. Darnold hesitates and thinks about making the throw, but still doesn't have enough space from the defender. By this point, the deep S sees Sam reset his eyes on Crowder, but is still 20 yards away. Crowder adjusts by fading deeper downfield to make some space from the LB. 
8. At the 5 second mark, Sam is readying himself to throw. He thinks the corner is covering Ty Johnson deep, but doesn't realize that the CB covering Johnson is still able to cheat by turning around 3 times to see what Sam is doing and where he's looking. That allows him to pick up Crowder. The S and the CB are on the same page; the S isn't going to pursue Crowder because he's too far away and it will leave the top of the field open, and the CB is in the best position to cover the zone which Sam is looking at and trusts the S to cover the RB hence why he turns around. 
9. This is where Sam's instincts/anticipation/gunslinger mentality are on full display. Having developed timing and rapport with Crowder, he knows Crowder can make the sideline grabs in his sleep (except in the 2019 Baltimore game, which Crowder still redeemed himself). He's not worried about Crowder getting to the sideline, but Sam has to throw it in a spot that was short enough where the defender couldn't establish his feet but also deep enough for Crowder to make a play on it; any shorter and its an incomplete pass; any deeper and it's intercepted. 
10. Sam makes an anticipatory throw; the defender can't jump the pass because he was running the other way (thus can only establish his feet and wait for the ball); Crowder reads his QB perfectly and makes a great play on the ball. 

 

After pretending to have read this post, you’ve convinced me the Sam doesn’t suck!

 

Draft the tackle!

[nyjbuddy]

36 minutes ago, football guy said:

7. Once Sam gathers himself outside the pocket (around the 3,5 second mark), he shifts his eyes from the RB either to Perriman or Crowder. It's at this point that Sam recognizes the two deep S's are eliminating Perriman, whose already made his break and headed upfield. The LB is covering Herndon, who improvises once he notices Sam has rolled out of the pocket. Because of that, Sam senses Crowder will be wide-open, however, trying to fit it in will be extremely difficult with a DL in his face and the LB still in a position to defend the pass.  

Should Herndon have done this at this point knowing Crowder was running behind him?  You see the linebacker move toward Herndon right as Darnold is taking off but then switches direction to follow Herndon.  Seems like if Herndon stayed, it would have caused the linebacker covering him to hesitate just enough to spring Crowder open earlier.  So instead of Darnold having to make the sideline throw, he could have thrown it a little earlier to a wide open Crowder, before the S and CB would have had time to adjust.  He could have let that ball go at the numbers.

[genot]

14 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Still a dumb and unnecessary risk to take. Sam thinks he's able throw more to his left but it floats right, thats why Crowder has to come down a couple yards and step in front of the defender. It's an ill advised throw. Crowder bailed him out. 

Lol. It's called chemistry. It's a receiver knowing what a QB will do when a play breaks down, and vica-versa. That's why Crowder is his go to guy. We need an outside receiver to develop that same chemistry with Darnold or someone else.. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

1 minute ago, genot said:

Lol. It's called chemistry. It's a receiver knowing what a QB will do when a play breaks down, and vica-versa. That's why Crowder is his go to guy. We need an outside receiver to develop that same chemistry with Darnold or someone else.. 

Chemistry where the WR knows he has to bail out his QB again.

[MykePM]

As Sam himself identified in his end-of-season press conference, his problem is consistency.  What’s made him such a difficult evaluation is that he will make amazing, athletic plays - the likes of which I’ve never seen a Jets QB make in my 40+ years as a Jets fan - but then will make the most stupid rookie mistakes in his 3rd NFL year, like running out of bounds for a loss / sack instead of just throwing the ball away, or a horrible interception.  The optimists will say that better personnel / coaching will allow him to eliminate the bad plays while still making the great ones, but it seems like most Jet fans have been stung too many times and just want to move on - and I can’t say that I blame them.

[Jetster]

Oh, oh, oh, do the breakdown of his 2 horrible picks! I love the 1 into triple coverage where he throws high & outside! 
Waiting with anticipation! 

[Jetster]

4 minutes ago, MykePM said:

As Sam himself identified in his end-of-season press conference, his problem is consistency.  What’s made him such a difficult evaluation is that he will make amazing, athletic plays - the likes of which I’ve never seen a Jets QB make in my 40+ years as a Jets fan - but then will make the most stupid rookie mistakes in his 3rd NFL year, like running out of bounds for a loss / sack instead of just throwing the ball away, or a horrible interception.  The optimists will say that better personnel / coaching will allow him to eliminate the bad plays while still making the great ones, but it seems like most Jet fans have been stung too many times and just want to move on - and I can’t say that I blame them.

He’s much nicer than Geno, but just as dumb when it comes to learning the nuances of QBing. If you run out of bounds & lose yardage in your 3rd year it’s a tell take sign this line of business is too complicated for you. 
Geno did it in his 2nd year & it drove me crazy! 
3rd year? It’s just FLAT OUT DUMB! 

[rangerous]

while i agree the play was going to crowder all the way darnold still threw the ball late.  he needed to throw it when crowder was crossing the right side yard markers.  the throw was risky because darnold threw it late.

[peebag]

Sam might be a bust but the Jets (and outside circumstances) certainly have not helped him much in his development.

I'd be curious as to what a new environment would do for his play.

[jbt]

Joe Flacco outplayed Sam when he played this year.  what else do we need to see from Sam, time to move on

 

[genot]

27 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Chemistry where the WR knows he has to bail out his QB again.

Good receivers bail out their QB's every game. You don't think Stephan Diggs has helped elevate Allen. The list goes on and on. It's part of what makes them good . 

[jeremy2020]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

First, let me say that I really like Michael Nania and all the work the guys do at Jets X-Factor. With that said, this play right here is why I trust my own eyes rather than the stat sheets and what the pundits have to say... 

At first glance, this looks like an extremely risky play, one that was thrown to the wheel (Ty Johnson) that just happened to be "robbed" by Jamison Crowder. In reality, there was a lot more going on in this pllay that the average fan doesn't recognize. Let's break it down... 

Jets have 11-man personnel on this play. On the left (can't see) you have the Z-receiver (off-line on sideline) and the Y-receiver (slot, Crowder). Play is favored to the right side of the formation, with Y-TE lined up in-line next to the RT, the RB to the right of the QB, and the X-receiver lined up on the LOS but close to the formation. The play is designed for Perriman. This is somewhat like a "mesh" concept; have your Y-WR and Y-TE receivers run "crossing" routes in the middle of the field (in this case Crowder and Herndon), with the X-WR running a sluggo route and your RB running a wheel as your outlet pass. In theory, if the sluggo is ran perfectly the receiver should be wide open right after he makes his break because the FS will be caught up with either the Z (not in the clip) or the Y. At the same time, the mesh forces the LBs best positioned to cover the RB to bite on the Y-TE. If the corner lined up over the X bites, then the RB will be wide open. If the corner doesn't bite on the X but the safety does and isn't fooled by the sloggo, it should clear out enough space over the top whether he's one-on-one with a LB or the CB covering the flat. If neither are open you have your TE on the hitch route as a 3rd option, and either your crossing Y-WR or Z-WR (running a go) as your 4th/5th options.  

Darnold's processing on this play: 

1. Identify coverage. Are they in zone, man? Cover-1, cover-2? Pretty much the basic measures. 
2. Identify the defensive formation in the front 7 and protection. Are they overloading a blitz on the right? If so, the play is in trouble because you have both your TE and RB going out for passes without chipping, so either the ball will have to come out quickly if he's sticking with the play or they should audible out. He stuck with the play. 
3. Takes the snap - looking to see how the coverage reacts to Perriman. Immediately sees the CB take the RB, and the LB takes Perriman. This should indicate Perriman will be open.
4. Sam thinks he has it but the timing is slightly off and GVR gets beat in the interior; Perriman not ready for the ball and if Sam waits he senses he's going to get sacked. Forced to roll out - the play is going off script. 
5. Sam rolls right, and now he's looking to see if he can hit his RB running the wheel. It's not there; simultaneously the DL flips off the line and is running parallel with Darnold, right in his face. 
6. Once Sam gathers himself outside the pocket (around the 3,5 second mark), he shifts his eyes from the RB either to Perriman or Crowder. It's at this point that Sam recognizes the two deep S's are eliminating Perriman, whose already made his break and headed upfield. The LB is covering Herndon, who improvises once he notices Sam has rolled out of the pocket. Because of that, Sam senses Crowder will be wide-open, however, trying to fit it in will be extremely difficult with a DL in his face and the LB still in a position to defend the pass.  
7. Darnold hesitates and thinks about making the throw, but still doesn't have enough space from the defender. By this point, the deep S sees Sam reset his eyes on Crowder, but is still 20 yards away. Crowder adjusts by fading deeper downfield to make some space from the LB. 
8. At the 5 second mark, Sam is readying himself to throw. He thinks the corner is covering Ty Johnson deep, but doesn't realize that the CB covering Johnson is still able to cheat by turning around 3 times to see what Sam is doing and where he's looking. That allows him to pick up Crowder. The S and the CB are on the same page; the S isn't going to pursue Crowder because he's too far away and it will leave the top of the field open, and the CB is in the best position to cover the zone which Sam is looking at and trusts the S to cover the RB hence why he turns around. 
9. This is where Sam's instincts/anticipation/gunslinger mentality are on full display. Having developed timing and rapport with Crowder, he knows Crowder can make the sideline grabs in his sleep (except in the 2019 Baltimore game, which Crowder still redeemed himself). He's not worried about Crowder getting to the sideline, but Sam has to throw it in a spot that was short enough where the defender couldn't establish his feet but also deep enough for Crowder to make a play on it; any shorter and its an incomplete pass; any deeper and it's intercepted. 
10. Sam makes an anticipatory throw; the defender can't jump the pass because he was running the other way (thus can only establish his feet and wait for the ball); Crowder reads his QB perfectly and makes a great play on the ball. 

 

This is why I don't trust your ability to evaluate a play. 

[Spoot-Face]

58 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

"Fields is amazing. Darnold is terrible."

Fields will be a young, dynamic QB with high upside coming in on a brand new cheap, rookie contract.

Darnold, through 3 seasons of play, has been statistically the worst QB in the league and is one year removed from having to be payed $25MM in order to keep.

 

[Guilhermezmc]

I still think that he didn't need to escape the pocket

[Jetster]

12 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Fields will be a young, dynamic QB with high upside coming in on a brand new cheap, rookie contract.

Darnold, through 3 seasons of play, has been statistically the worst QB in the league and is one year removed from having to be payed $25MM in order to keep.

 

My fear of selecting Fields & not keeping Darnold is if Fields ends up of the 35th ranked QB in the league next year in his 1st year! Oh, that’s right, Darnold was 35th in his 3rd year. 
 

OK, we’re good! 

[shuler82]

Nice breakdown. I saw this tweet yesterday and watched the clip and had the same revelation- Sam was throwing for Crowder and it was nowhere near as haphazard as it appeared in real time. Not saying Sam doesn’t have his issues, but on this particular play I thought it was well executed 

[RedBeardedSavage]

49 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Fields will be a young, dynamic QB with high upside coming in on a brand new cheap, rookie contract.

Darnold, through 3 seasons of play, has been statistically the worst QB in the league and is one year removed from having to be payed $25MM in order to keep.

 

Meh, Darnold has the worst roster in the sport, with the worst coach in the sport.

Fields has one of the top two rosters in the sport, with one of the best coaches in the sport.

Darnold might well be broken, can’t deny that - this past year was clearly a regression... but how the f*** do you think Fields does with this offensive line and set of receivers? What do you think is going to be different? 

Tell me, how well do you think Fields does when the Pats play man coverage, rush 3, and there’s pressure in his face within 2 seconds? 

Bring back Fitzmagic, keep Darnold for another year and take Ja Marr Chase or Penei Sewell or trade down for Kyle Pitts. Let those two turnover machines battle it out in camp, and build the rest of the offense for next year. Fields isn’t some generational prospect, there will be more like him next year, if not better, and you know we’ll be picking top 10 next year anyway. 

[k-met57]

 

[Mogglez]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Bring back Fitzmagic, keep Darnold for another year

[Spoot-Face]

13 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Darnold might well be broken, can’t deny that - this past year was clearly a regression... but how the f*** do you think Fields does with this offensive line and set of receivers? What do you think is going to be different? 

Yes, because Fields is going to come in with the exact same roster as we had in 2020. There are like, no other draft picks and nothing called "free agency".

14 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Tell me, how well do you think Fields does when the Pats play man coverage, rush 3, and there’s pressure in his face within 2 seconds? 

No worse than Darnold. And he'll be younger and have more time on his rookie contract to get it right.

16 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Fields isn’t some generational prospect, there will be more like him next year, if not better,

You can't possibly know this. This is the kind of thinking that made us pass on Watson and Mahommes and put us in the predicament that we are in now with Darnold. That and some misplaced hope in a bustarific QB.

29 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

and you know we’ll be picking top 10 next year anyway. 

Picking in the top 10 =/= picking #2 overall. That's a huge difference. We have a chance right now to pick the best QB prospect not named Trevor Lawrence. You don't pass that up on the hope that either 1) our statistically league-wide worst QB will somehow get better in year 4 of his contract, 2) that the next crop of QBs will be as good -- or better -- than what we are facing now, and that 3) we will even be in position to draft one. So much can happen in both the NCAA and the NFL between now and next draft.

37 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Bring back Fitzmagic, keep Darnold for another year

lol

 

If your logic on passing on Fields and Wilson is that there is bound to be a QB just as good in the top of next year's draft, why on Earth would you advocate for signing Fitz or any stop-gap QB? You are just begging for him to win 6-8 games and keep us in QB purgatory.

And if the roster talent is so bad, we should be hoping to trade Darnold for any picks that we can that can be used to help build the roster up for the next QB, whoever that may be.

[kdels62]

3 hours ago, football guy said:

First, let me say that I really like Michael Nania and all the work the guys do at Jets X-Factor. With that said, this play right here is why I trust my own eyes rather than the stat sheets and what the pundits have to say... 

At first glance, this looks like an extremely risky play, one that was thrown to the wheel (Ty Johnson) that just happened to be "robbed" by Jamison Crowder. In reality, there was a lot more going on in this pllay that the average fan doesn't recognize. Let's break it down... 

Jets have 11-man personnel on this play. On the left (can't see) you have the Z-receiver (off-line on sideline) and the Y-receiver (slot, Crowder). Play is favored to the right side of the formation, with Y-TE lined up in-line next to the RT, the RB to the right of the QB, and the X-receiver lined up on the LOS but close to the formation. The play is designed for Perriman. This is somewhat like a "mesh" concept; have your Y-WR and Y-TE receivers run "crossing" routes in the middle of the field (in this case Crowder and Herndon), with the X-WR running a sluggo route and your RB running a wheel as your outlet pass. In theory, if the sluggo is ran perfectly the receiver should be wide open right after he makes his break because the FS will be caught up with either the Z (not in the clip) or the Y. At the same time, the mesh forces the LBs best positioned to cover the RB to bite on the Y-TE. If the corner lined up over the X bites, then the RB will be wide open. If the corner doesn't bite on the X but the safety does and isn't fooled by the sloggo, it should clear out enough space over the top whether he's one-on-one with a LB or the CB covering the flat. If neither are open you have your TE on the hitch route as a 3rd option, and either your crossing Y-WR or Z-WR (running a go) as your 4th/5th options.  

Darnold's processing on this play: 

1. Identify coverage. Are they in zone, man? Cover-1, cover-2? Pretty much the basic measures. 
2. Identify the defensive formation in the front 7 and protection. Are they overloading a blitz on the right? If so, the play is in trouble because you have both your TE and RB going out for passes without chipping, so either the ball will have to come out quickly if he's sticking with the play or they should audible out. He stuck with the play. 
3. Takes the snap - looking to see how the coverage reacts to Perriman. Immediately sees the CB take the RB, and the LB takes Perriman. This should indicate Perriman will be open.
4. Sam thinks he has it but the timing is slightly off and GVR gets beat in the interior; Perriman not ready for the ball and if Sam waits he senses he's going to get sacked. Forced to roll out - the play is going off script. 
5. Sam rolls right, and now he's looking to see if he can hit his RB running the wheel. It's not there; simultaneously the DL flips off the line and is running parallel with Darnold, right in his face. 
6. Once Sam gathers himself outside the pocket (around the 3,5 second mark), he shifts his eyes from the RB either to Perriman or Crowder. It's at this point that Sam recognizes the two deep S's are eliminating Perriman, whose already made his break and headed upfield. The LB is covering Herndon, who improvises once he notices Sam has rolled out of the pocket. Because of that, Sam senses Crowder will be wide-open, however, trying to fit it in will be extremely difficult with a DL in his face and the LB still in a position to defend the pass.  
7. Darnold hesitates and thinks about making the throw, but still doesn't have enough space from the defender. By this point, the deep S sees Sam reset his eyes on Crowder, but is still 20 yards away. Crowder adjusts by fading deeper downfield to make some space from the LB. 
8. At the 5 second mark, Sam is readying himself to throw. He thinks the corner is covering Ty Johnson deep, but doesn't realize that the CB covering Johnson is still able to cheat by turning around 3 times to see what Sam is doing and where he's looking. That allows him to pick up Crowder. The S and the CB are on the same page; the S isn't going to pursue Crowder because he's too far away and it will leave the top of the field open, and the CB is in the best position to cover the zone which Sam is looking at and trusts the S to cover the RB hence why he turns around. 
9. This is where Sam's instincts/anticipation/gunslinger mentality are on full display. Having developed timing and rapport with Crowder, he knows Crowder can make the sideline grabs in his sleep (except in the 2019 Baltimore game, which Crowder still redeemed himself). He's not worried about Crowder getting to the sideline, but Sam has to throw it in a spot that was short enough where the defender couldn't establish his feet but also deep enough for Crowder to make a play on it; any shorter and its an incomplete pass; any deeper and it's intercepted. 
10. Sam makes an anticipatory throw; the defender can't jump the pass because he was running the other way (thus can only establish his feet and wait for the ball); Crowder reads his QB perfectly and makes a great play on the ball. 

 

Cool... except if the CB runs forward to catch the ball instead of setting himself up like it’s a jugs machine it’s still a pick.

[slimjasi]

All of this text for one play, but you're not seeing the forest through the trees. Big picture. Big picture. 

12 starts - zero 300 yard games, four 200 yard games (wow!). 

Lowest QBR in the league. 

9 TDs, 11 INTs, 59.6% completion percentage, 6.1 Y/A

Yikes 

 

 

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 hour ago, Spoot-Face said:

Yes, because Fields is going to come in with the exact same roster as we had in 2020. There are like, no other draft picks and nothing called "free agency".

No worse than Darnold. And he'll be younger and have more time on his rookie contract to get it right.

You can't possibly know this. This is the kind of thinking that made us pass on Watson and Mahommes and put us in the predicament that we are in now with Darnold. That and some misplaced hope in a bustarific QB.

Picking in the top 10 =/= picking #2 overall. That's a huge difference. We have a chance right now to pick the best QB prospect not named Trevor Lawrence. You don't pass that up on the hope that either 1) our statistically league-wide worst QB will somehow get better in year 4 of his contract, 2) that the next crop of QBs will be as good -- or better -- than what we are facing now, and that 3) we will even be in position to draft one. So much can happen in both the NCAA and the NFL between now and next draft.

lol

 

If your logic on passing on Fields and Wilson is that there is bound to be a QB just as good in the top of next year's draft, why on Earth would you advocate for signing Fitz or any stop-gap QB? You are just begging for him to win 6-8 games and keep us in QB purgatory.

And if the roster talent is so bad, we should be hoping to trade Darnold for any picks that we can that can be used to help build the roster up for the next QB, whoever that may be.

• Well draft picks are rookies, and generally speaking, don't have much of an impact - even if they're good. Becton was an exception. Quinnen, who is clearly a good player, did nothing as a rookie. Most rookies don't have much of an impact, so we're not counting on them to be immediate contributors or, let's say, immediate improvements. 
• Free agency. Sure. Yea. Who do you think is signing here? Be realistic. Hell I've said it before and I'll say it again - you get me either Godwin, Galloday or Allen Robinson and either Thuney or Scherff, we can start talking about fielding a competitive offense next year. But I mean, how realistic is that? Who do you think is signing here? 
  • If it's another bunch of Van Roten's and Perrimen's... then yea... I'm not going to count on some rookie that played with one of the most talent rosters in college football to transition to a more difficult league in a situation with one of the worst rosters in the sport.
• So yea, I'm saying that unless the guy is truly 'once-in-a-while' prospect, we shouldn't take him. We should build the rest of the roster... Do you know what Ja Marr Chase would do for the next quarterback we take? 

I was all for taking Trevor. It made sense. He's been talked about for years as the best prospect since Luck. 

Justin Fields? Nobody says that. You might like him as a prospect, I respect that. But he's far from a sure thing, and our roster is far from being 'quarterback friendly'. 

[Chrebetfan80]

3 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

Should Herndon have done this at this point knowing Crowder was running behind him?  You see the linebacker move toward Herndon right as Darnold is taking off but then switches direction to follow Herndon.  Seems like if Herndon stayed, it would have caused the linebacker covering him to hesitate just enough to spring Crowder open earlier.  So instead of Darnold having to make the sideline throw, he could have thrown it a little earlier to a wide open Crowder, before the S and CB would have had time to adjust.  He could have let that ball go at the numbers.

scramble drill rules, short go long, long come back, and middle of the field flows with the QB.   In that moment he's not thinking about whats behind him because he's expecting them to find the hole during the scramble like he is trying to do. 

[Chrebetfan80]

It's a shame such a great write up and break down on a play, which shows what real coaches go through breaking down game film each and every week, is going to be picked apart and not appreciated.  Feel for you guy, great job @football guy

[HawkeyeJet]

1.  Perriman most certainly does not run a sluggo.  He's running a skinny post that required an inside release off the line.

2.  More importantly, the Patriots are in cover 3 and Perriman is in no shape or form the correct "read" at any point.

[C Mart]

3 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

This is why I don't trust your ability to evaluate a play. 

Give it a shot. 

[Spoot-Face]

37 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

• Well draft picks are rookies, and generally speaking, don't have much of an impact - even if they're good. Becton was an exception. Quinnen, who is clearly a good player, did nothing as a rookie. Most rookies don't have much of an impact, so we're not counting on them to be immediate contributors or, let's say, immediate improvements. 
• Free agency. Sure. Yea. Who do you think is signing here? Be realistic. Hell I've said it before and I'll say it again - you get me either Godwin, Galloday or Allen Robinson and either Thuney or Scherff, we can start talking about fielding a competitive offense next year. But I mean, how realistic is that? Who do you think is signing here? 
  • If it's another bunch of Van Roten's and Perrimen's... then yea... I'm not going to count on some rookie that played with one of the most talent rosters in college football to transition to a more difficult league in a situation with one of the worst rosters in the sport.
• So yea, I'm saying that unless the guy is truly 'once-in-a-while' prospect, we shouldn't take him. We should build the rest of the roster... Do you know what Ja Marr Chase would do for the next quarterback we take? 

I was all for taking Trevor. It made sense. He's been talked about for years as the best prospect since Luck. 

Justin Fields? Nobody says that. You might like him as a prospect, I respect that. But he's far from a sure thing, and our roster is far from being 'quarterback friendly'. 

1. I don't expect Fields -- or any rookie QB -- to come in here and make us a Super Bowl contender in one year, nor do I expect us to fix the roster with one year of rookie and FA acquisitions. No matter what, it's going to be a process, and that's okay.

2. You want us to not draft a QB unless he's a "once-in-while" prospect, which by definition, only comes around "once in a while", and yet you seem confident that someone better than Fields or Wilson or whoever will be available in next year's draft. Sounds like a contradiction to me.

3. How long do you want to wait on drafting a QB as we build up the team? How long do you want to wait until one of those "once in a while" QBs comes out? What if we're not in position to draft him when he comes out? Waiting on those three criteria to magically align themselves isn't a good plan.

4. For me this isn't as much about drafting Fields specifically, but drafting a QB while we're in prime position to do so. If Fields is deemed the best, then so be it. But it's time to move on from Darnold, and just as you think Fields is no sure bet, there's also no sure bet that there will be a QB worth taking in 2022 and that we'll even be in position to draft the best or even 2nd best prospect available.