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Todd McShays latest mock is out, Fields to New England!


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So how the hell is Fields dropping to 15?  Somebody explain

what a waste of draft resources to use 2 consecutive top 10 picks on tackles with so many other glaring needs including qb.

wow its all about the clicks these days.  Literally in November todd McShay was on ESPN saying htat Fields could go #1 After the greatest performance in college football history he drops to

14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 

I also believe that the internet is very quick to write off 23 year old Sam who might be a similar prospect to these next 2 qb beyond Trevor. The jets want multiple ones to trade down and at least a second Rd for Sam if that doesn't happen jd is comfortable rolling with Sewell and trying to get value from the James Morgan pick 

 

 

"very quick" to write off Darnold? Where does this narrative come from?

People talk about Sam like he's a rookie. The guy has started 38 games for the Jets. That's 7 more games than Geno Smith has started in his entire NFL career. 

There is definitely an argument to be made for trading down if the Jets don't like Fields or Wilson, but in that case, they need to bring in another QB to either compete with Darnold or simply replace him. 

Also, I still think you guys are undervaluing the financial benefits to resetting the rookie QB contract window.

Taking another tackle at 2 makes no sense. 

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Just now, PS17 said:

Fields at 15? McShay is a clown.

Even if you don't like Fields (you're wrong, but whatever), you have to acknowledge that these QBs are always hyped to death as the draft approaches. They tend to go higher, no lower. 

I'd argue there is less than a 10% chance Fields even makes it out of the top 5. 

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4 hours ago, section314 said:

Was in another thread on Justin Fields where DJ said he doesn't even have Sewell as his #1 OT, Northwestern's Slater is his#1.

How about those Mets ☺️

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14 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

"very quick" to write off Darnold? Where does this narrative come from?

People talk about Sam like he's a rookie. The guy has started 38 games for the Jets. That's 7 more games than Geno Smith has started in his entire NFL career. 

There is definitely an argument to be made for trading down if the Jets don't like Fields or Wilson, but in that case, they need to bring in another QB to either compete with Darnold or simply replace him. 

Also, I still think you guys are undervaluing the financial benefits to resetting the rookie QB contract window.

Taking another tackle at 2 makes no sense. 

To some people it's always too early to evaluate a player until they like the conclusion.

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40 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Both feel too rich for the 2 pick tbh

McShay predicted Jets take Sewell at 2

Kiper just said that the Bengals at 5 would have to trade to 2 for Sewell 

Schefter says Jets want to make a BIG deal 

These 3 guys usually know people 

The Mogglez post talks about how they love Sewell and higher than most on Sam 

With Trevor at 1 a lock everyone is trying to figure out the Jets at 2

This means either jd wants Sewell or wants to create a trade down market for Sewell.

The idea he's going to pass on Sewell for fields without a trade down is not what these guys are hearing, probably from the man himself. 

Could the Jets take fields? sure. At 2 seems too rich at least if all these sources are to be believed. I also believe that the internet is very quick to write off 23 year old Sam who might be a similar prospect to these next 2 qb beyond Trevor.

 

My guess? The jets want a one and/or a bunch 2s to trade down and at least a second Rd for Sam. They are not going sell Sam for a 5th Rd pick like I saw one poster predict.

if that market doesn't happen jd is comfortable rolling with Sewell and trying to get value from the James Morgan pick or whatever else (looking for a qb at the Jamal Adams pick or top of 2 etc) 

 

 

That you think these heads are doing anything other than making well positioned guesses and that JD has told them anything is scary.  

All before the HC has been picked and signed.  Because why?

I would trust the word of @Mogglez though, after all hes my son

 

 

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Not that it's relevant (about the same as this january mock draft) but I would love to be a fly on the wall in the season ticket sales meeting when they are trying to figure out how to spin a shiny new right tackle to prospective clients coming off a post-pandemic 2-14 season.  

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28 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

"very quick" to write off Darnold? Where does this narrative come from?

People talk about Sam like he's a rookie. The guy has started 38 games for the Jets. That's 7 more games than Geno Smith has started in his entire NFL career. 

There is definitely an argument to be made for trading down if the Jets don't like Fields or Wilson, but in that case, they need to bring in another QB to either compete with Darnold or simply replace him. 

Also, I still think you guys are undervaluing the financial benefits to resetting the rookie QB contract window.

Taking another tackle at 2 makes no sense. 

let me first say I am no Sam Darnold fan in fact I've bashed him since before we Sucked for him in 17 

 

but the narrative comes from Sam has been working with Gase who is terribad. he is 23 which is only like 2 years older than Fields/Trevor/Wilson. And he's also showing some small signs of improvement and hard lessons learned in 3 years of getting his teeth kicked in. if 10 teams do line up to trade for this player it shows he has some trade value 

the rookie contract window is exactly why JD won't take Fields at 2. It opens the Window too early 

fans are overrating what JD will be able to accomplish in FA. This offense is still terrible, adding Fields (without getting some sort of trade down) is a desperation ploy and JD isn't at that point in his tenure

the second JD picks a big time QB the clock starts ticking on JD 

he can draft that guy in year 5 of his Rebuild and if that guy looks good as a rookie he gets extended

if he takes Fields or Wilson at 2, they won't give him another chance 

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53 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Do you really think they will tell the NY Jets the truth? This is a strategy not trying to have a good relationship with the Fins. 

You are living too much in the moment. 

For all these guys, there is a next time. If you break your word here, why wouldn’t you do it again. The cost of lying is just too great. So are the opportunities for revenge. 
 

Fans have the luxury of love and hate. The pros don’t. 

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4 minutes ago, ChewyandtheJets said:

Not that it's relevant (about the same as this january mock draft) but I would love to be a fly on the wall in the season ticket sales meeting when they are trying to figure out how to spin a shiny new right tackle to prospective clients coming off a post-pandemic 2-14 season.  

despite all signs to the contrary the Jets always sell out 

a year after quarantine there will be pent up demand and they will continue to sell out 

even if they don't draft anyone, fans will be excited to go and grill and be merry 

roaring 20's here we come again

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10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

That you think these heads are doing anything other than making well positioned guesses and that JD has told them anything is scary 

Joe Douglas and Todd McShay went to University of Richmond together you don't think they occasionally talk? 

the NFL gossips worse than (insert joke here)

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14 hours ago, bitonti said:

Joe Douglas and Todd McShay went to University of Richmond together you don't think they occasionally talk? 

the NFL gossips worse than (insert joke here)

I dont care that they went to school and shared a dorm years ago.  Douglas isnt leaking info for McShay to throw out there. So McShay a list that no one is taking seriously or thinks its etched in stone. 

The Jets arent going to make a decision on a QB until the HC is here.  Come on, think about that for a second, JD is dumping a Darnold on a HC and elimination Fields or Wilson, no matter what the HC might want? 

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8 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

That you think these heads are doing anything other than making well positioned guesses and that JD has told them anything is scary.  

All before the HC has been picked and signed.  Because why?

I would trust the word of @Mogglez though, after all hes my son

 

 

I also said in my post that if JDs top candidate wants to move on, that no one will have Sam forced on them.

I know how much you love Sewell @bitonti, and I love him too lol but, gun to my head, they either keep Sam and trade down or go QB @ 2OA as of today.  Feeling less and less excited about Sewell being a Jet :/.  There’s still a sh*t ton that can happen from now until draft day though.  I’m not gonna “cement” anything in there just yet.

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20 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Even if you don't like Fields (you're wrong, but whatever), you have to acknowledge that these QBs are always hyped to death as the draft approaches. They tend to go higher, no lower. 

I'd argue there is less than a 10% chance Fields even makes it out of the top 5. 

Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be a top 5 pick he goes 24

Sam Darnold was supposed to go 1 he goes 3

Josh Allen was supposed to go 1 in the same draft a year early, he goes 6 or whatver

Ryan Nassib was a late1/early2 he goes round 4

Brady Quinn, Geno Smith

QBs are valued but they also fall every year and sometimes really far

the teams don't make as many QB reaches as we imagine they do 

not in the top 5 with elite picks. They do take these guys late 1 or whatever 

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2 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

This is redic. Unless  Fields right arm falls off, he is top 5. 

Fields is playing with broken ribs, highly medicated vs Bama, i mean, that's a possibility 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 

the rookie contract window is exactly why JD won't take Fields at 2. It opens the Window too early 

fans are overrating what JD will be able to accomplish in FA. This offense is still terrible, adding Fields (without getting some sort of trade down) is a desperation ploy and JD isn't at that point in his tenure

the second JD picks a big time QB the clock starts ticking on JD 

he can draft that guy in year 5 of his Rebuild and if that guy looks good as a rookie he gets extended

if he takes Fields or Wilson at 2, they won't give him another chance 

Interesting. I’ve generally agreed with your view based on the need to strengthen the overall roster. The timing of the above rookie contract makes sense. 
 

I hadn’t thought about it in terms of JDs own contract. I have seen folks go both ways in terms of work decisions that benefit themselves versus their company. Here they kind of overlap. 

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1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

Feeling less and less excited about Sewell being a Jet :/.  

As you say there is much that can happen 

he's been working out for months with specialty trainers and Duke Mayweather types  

this dude is going to shred the Indianapolis combine 

 

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Just now, addage said:

I hadn’t thought about it in terms of JDs own contract. 

Im not hugely successful when it comes to Mock drafts, no one is - to go 50% in rd 1 would be like a world record

but the times I have predicted a pick correctly it's looking at it through the lens of the person who has to put their house on the market if it doesn't work out 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be a top 5 pick he goes 24

Sam Darnold was supposed to go 1 he goes 3

Josh Allen was supposed to go 1 in the same draft a year early, he goes 6 or whatver

Ryan Nassib was a late1/early2 he goes round 4

Brady Quinn, Geno Smith

QBs are valued but they also fall every year and sometimes really far

the teams don't make as many QB reaches as we imagine they do 

not in the top 5 with elite picks. They do take these guys late 1 or whatever 

Aaaron Rodgers might as well have been a million years ago. People learned from that. 

Look at the last few drafts. 

Fields isn't getting out of the top 5. I'd be happy to take your money if you'd like to make a friendly wager. 

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Just now, slimjasi said:

Fields isn't getting out of the top 5. I'd be happy to take your money if you'd like to make a friendly wager. 

the wager I have been offering has been 50 bucks to the charity of the winners choice

if the jets take sewell at 2 I win 

if the Jets take Fields or Wilson (or heck even Trevor, any QB) at 2 you win 

trade down is a push, any non Sewell/QB at 2 it's a push 

 

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Todd McShay backlash builds

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on March 31, 2010, 12:56 PM EDT

Many NFL scouts have a sore spot for failed NFL scouts who enter the media and attempt to critique the work of NFL scouts who have not yet failed.

Even more NFL scouts have a sore spot for guys who were never NFL scouts, couldn’t be if they wanted to, and then attempt to critique the work of folks who became NFL scouts.

Once upon a time, Mel Kiper was the primary target of NFL scouts; Kiper has been supplanted by his on-air protege/rival at ESPN, Todd McShay.  As McShay’s profile increases, and as he takes on the likes of quarterback Jimmy Clausen for reasons that many league insiders believe have no merit, McShay becomes a magnet for criticism.

“Most people at my level feel he is a joke,” a veteran NFL scout told us via e-mail.  “People in the league respect Kiper.  He is not a true scout but he does work at it.  A lot of his info he gets from connections in the league, and over the years he has made quite a few.  When he was younger he used to burn some bridges.  He doesn’t do that any more.”

So what about McShay?

“McShay does not have any good connections,” the source opined.  “Higher-ups in the league think he is an arrogant a$$hole.  A know-it-all.  And he really knows nothing.  Whatever he says about a quarterback, take it to the bank, it will be the opposite.  Remember, last August he stated that Jevan Snead was better than Colt McCoy and would get drafted in the top five.  He has yet to publicly retract that statement.

“One of the reasons the kid came out was because of what McShay said.  The family thought McShay knew and everyone else was wrong. . . .  He has problems with game management, accuracy and leadership among other things, but pretty boy Todd thought he was great because of one good game (the Cotton Bowl) a year ago.  McShay is a pretty face who comes across like he knows what he is talking about.  He does have good presence, but knows nothing.”

A common name we’ve heard when it comes to McShay is Andre Woodson.  McShay championed Woodson during the 2007 season.  Woodson ended up being a sixth-round pick, and he’s now out of the league. 

The teams knew that Woodson wasn’t as good as McShay was saying.  The problem is that the player and his family don’t have access to what the teams are thinking.  The player and his family see and hear the stuff that gets played on television, and they tend to believe it when ESPN attaches to the talking head the phony, official-sounding title of “director of college scouting.”

But not all draft experts fall into that category.

“The best guy in the amateur scouting/draftnik business in Mike Mayock,” the source said.  “Mike does more film work then any of those other guys put together.  He is the only one who has access to the NFL dub center where all the college tapes go before they get distributed to the teams.  He watches hours and hours of tape.  You might not always agree with his evaluations but he works hard at it and you have to respect that.”

The source ended with a prediction regarding Clausen’s prospects. 

“On draft day McShay will look like a fool because whether or not you like Clausen as a person he is very talented,” the source said.  “He has more training and game time in a pro system than any quarterback in the draft.  His improvement from ’08 to ’09 was tremendous.  If Notre Dame had a defense, Charlie Weis would still be there coaching.  Offense was not the problem. 
I will agree that Clausen may have some A-hole in him but he is extremely talented.  He has a strong arm and is very accurate.  Plus he has played a lot in a pro system.”

In our view, McShay does present well on television, where the requirement isn’t to know what you’re talking about but to seem like you know what you’re talking about.  But we’ve heard from more than a few people who work as NFL scouts that McShay doesn’t know what he’s talking about.  Right or wrong, those voices will only get louder in their criticism as McShay gets more air time — and as he becomes more pointed with criticisms of players that NFL scouts regard as erroneous.

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

the wager I have been offering has been 50 bucks to the charity of the winners choice

if the jets take sewell at 2 I win 

if the Jets take Fields or Wilson (or heck even Trevor, any QB) at 2 you win 

trade down is a push, any non Sewell/QB at 2 it's a push 

 

Getting people to put money on Douglas not being in the tank for Darnold is some savant sh*t. You're doing the lord's work.

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

let me first say I am no Sam Darnold fan in fact I've bashed him since before we Sucked for him in 17 

 

but the narrative comes from Sam has been working with Gase who is terribad. he is 23 which is only like 2 years older than Fields/Trevor/Wilson. And he's also showing some small signs of improvement and hard lessons learned in 3 years of getting his

I'll focus on the Darnold stuff for now. Two big issues I see (as someone who LOVED Sam in 2018) are:

1) Sam is very young, but after 38 starts and a dramatic regression from year 2 to year 3, the problem is that his confidence is probably shot. The 2nd and 3rd years are so huge for NFL QBs, IMO. Sam's third year was bad to the point that very few guys ever amount to anything after playing as badly as Sam played this year. In other words, even if you put all of the blame on the Jets for "ruining" him, the damage is likely already done and somewhat permanent. 

2) What small improvements? This year? Sam showed some small improvements from year 1 to year 2, but he was worse this year than most of us could have possibly imagined. 

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Fields is playing with broken ribs, highly medicated vs Bama, i mean, that's a possibility 

I had a broken rib. Very painful.  Worst thing you can do is sneeze but it's  more a pain tolerance thing. 

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12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the wager I have been offering has been 50 bucks to the charity of the winners choice

if the jets take sewell at 2 I win 

if the Jets take Fields or Wilson (or heck even Trevor, any QB) at 2 you win 

trade down is a push, any non Sewell/QB at 2 it's a push 

 

I have no confidence in the Jets - I'm not convinced that the Jets will take Fields because I think the Jets might be in love with Sam on a personal level. 

But I think if the Jets don't take Fields, the Falcons or a team that trades up to #3 will. 

That's the bet I would be interested in. My bet would be that Fields isn't making it out of the top 5. 

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27 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I have no confidence in the Jets - I'm not convinced that the Jets will take Fields because I think the Jets might be in love with Sam on a personal level. 

But I think if the Jets don't take Fields, the Falcons or a team that trades up to #3 will. 

That's the bet I would be interested in. My bet would be that Fields isn't making it out of the top 5. 

I have like 200 dollars of action on the standard bet and to be honest I am not a quarterback guy. I'm an offensive line guy and they don't hand out Outland trophies to true sophomores very often. Sewell offers leadership. Becton is awesome he's not that kind of vocal dude like Sewell. Guys want to go to war for Sewell. 

This is not an anti fields take in fact that performance last week was the most heroic I've seen in decades maybe ever 

Sewell is just an even more premium dude 

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36 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I had a broken rib. Very painful.  Worst thing you can do is sneeze but it's  more a pain tolerance thing. 

There's a conspiracy theory that Ohio state pushed their defensive line covid results out public (after being extremely secret all year) to get a week delay for fields healing. I'm not sure that would be enough. They will dope him up and he will play but these types of misadventures have a cost. 

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