Sam could still turn it around... these QB's did after early struggles ~ ~ ~

[kelly]

Sam Darnold did not play well in 2020.

He threw for a career-low 2,208 yards and only nine touchdowns while going 2-10. A shoulder injury that forced him to miss six games may have contributed – as well as a porous offensive line, a limited supporting cast and a bad coaching staff – but he still turned in his worst season as a pro.Joe Douglas did not commit to Darnold for next season, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be the starter in 2021. The Jets have a lot of options this season – especially with the second overall pick – and could decide to keep Darnold for one more season after hiring a new head coach – perhaps someone who can fix Darnold’s flaws.

Darnold isn’t a definitive lost cause, yet. There are quarterbacks who have turned their careers around after multiple years of early struggles. Darnold could be the next, even if it doesn’t happen in New York. While the Jets figure that out, here’s a look at four recent quarterbacks who played well after early struggles.

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill had a solid two-season stint from 2014-2015, but his production declined afterward and the Dolphins traded him to the Titans. Tannehill performed well after taking over in Week 5 and led Tennessee to the AFC Championship. He went 7-3, completed a career-high 70.3 percent of his attempts, threw for 2,741 yards and 22 touchdowns, and led the NFL in yards per completion and quarterback rating.Tannehill really blossomed in 2020. He finished with 3,819 yards and a career-high 40 touchdowns – seven of which can on the ground.

Drew Brees

Brees averaged 3,031.8 yards, 19.8 touchdowns and a 62.3 percent completion percentage in his first five seasons as the starter of the San Diego Chargers. But when he joined the Saints and, under the tutelage of Sean Payton, he immediately posted a then-career best 4,418 yards and 26 passing touchdowns.Brees threw for more than 4,000 yards from 2006-2017 and averaged a 68.1 completion percentage, 4,841.4 yards and 34 passing touchdowns.

Alex Smith 

Smith looked like a bust after the 49ers picked him first overall in 2005. He had never thrown for more than 2,890 yards through his first five seasons and averaged more than 10 interceptions per season.But the 49ers hired Jim Harbaugh in 2011 and Smith turned in his best season as a pro: 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Smith was traded to the Chiefs a few years later, where he averaged 3,521.6 passing yards and 20.4 touchdowns per year in five seasons in Kansas City.He now plays in Washington.

Josh Allen

Allen – who was taken four picks after Darnold in 2018 – had a fantastic sophomore campaign in 2019 after his turnover-laden rookie season. Allen doubled his passing touchdowns from 10 to 20 and cut his interceptions from 12 to nine. He also improved his completion percentage from 52.8 to 58.8.He ratcheted his ability up even further this past season, recording 37 touchdowns, 4,544 yards and a completion percentage nearing 70 percent.Allen has had the same head coach-offensive coordinator combination, and the Bills upgraded his weapons over the past two seasons.

 

>  https://jetswire.usatoday.com/lists/jets-sam-darnold-quarterbacks-overcome-early-career-struggles-drew-brees-josh-allen/

 

[kelly]

imho,.. jim plunkett  " turned it around "    ?

[Sperm Edwards]

Alex Smith is the only good example above of someone who was this hopeless-looking after starting this many games. 

Tannehill? We'd be comparatively drooling over Darnold's potential going forward if his numbers mimicked Tannehill's first 3 seasons, even with his then-reputation for being a whiny/wimpy mush.

Brees was a probowler in his 3rd season starting in San Diego.

Allen took a big leap forward in year 3, but wasn't a train wreck in year 2 (30 total TDs in 15 starts, with Frank Gore getting nominally more than half the RB carries and top 3 targets of Brown-Beasley-Knox). Plus he was deemed to be a much bigger project from the get-go than Darnold. 

Could it happen? Odds are it won't; the list of QBs who didn't turn it around dwarfs any list of those who did. Plus the economics of these QBs' extension amounts, plus being in draft slot 2 right now (and unknown in the future), say you need to know sooner. We could keep him and he could turn it around here under new coaching with a better surrounding cast, but odds are highly against other improvements turning him from bad to good. The tail doesn't typically wag the dog.

[k-met57]

yes! thank you.

[oatmeal]

Yes let’s give the last ranked QB since entering the league 25 million and hope he gets it. Sounds like a great plan for a rebuilding team ?

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, oatmeal said:

Yes let’s give the last ranked QB sense entering the league 25 million and hope he gets it. Sounds like a great plan for a rebuilding team ?

Let’s be clear on this.  He’s owed $10mm this coming season. 

He’s still gone, but his salary this year isn’t the reason.

[rangerous]

imho i just don't see darnold being able to resurrected with the jets.  he has some talent but teams have learned how to play him and he just isn't that decisive throwing the ball.  his long ball accuracy is also suspect.  if he stayed he would essentially starting over like a rookie so why not just draft a top rookie who may have better ability and will be less encumbered by baggage.  the jets didn't do him any favors but that's the way it goes.

[Biggs]

Or he might be the second coming of Joey Harrington.  

[Jetsfan80]

46 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Or he might be the second coming of Joey Harrington.  

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or Mitchell Trubisky.  Or Brandon Weeden.  Or Blaine Gabbert.  Or Jimmy Clausen.  Or Josh Freeman.  Or John Beck.  Or Matt Leinart.  Or J.P. Losman.  Or Kyle Boller.  Or Patrick Ramsey.  

[oatmeal]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or Mitchell Trubisky.  Or Brandon Weeden.  Or Blaine Gabbert.  Or Jimmy Clausen.  Or Josh Freeman.  Or John Beck.  Or Matt Leinart.  Or J.P. Losman.  Or Kyle Boller.  Or Patrick Ramsey.  

Funny how that list is longer ?

[QB1]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Alex Smith is the only good example above of someone who was this hopeless-looking after starting this many games. 

Tannehill? We'd be comparatively drooling over Darnold's potential going forward if his numbers mimicked Tannehill's first 3 seasons, even with his then-reputation for being a whiny/wimpy mush.

Brees was a probowler in his 3rd season starting in San Diego.

Allen took a big leap forward in year 3, but wasn't a train wreck in year 2 (30 total TDs in 15 starts, with Frank Gore getting nominally more than half the RB carries and top 3 targets of Brown-Beasley-Knox). Plus he was deemed to be a much bigger project from the get-go than Darnold. 

Could it happen? Odds are it won't; the list of QBs who didn't turn it around dwarfs any list of those who did. Plus the economics of these QBs' extension amounts, plus being in draft slot 2 right now (and unknown in the future), say you need to know sooner. We could keep him and he could turn it around here under new coaching with a better surrounding cast, but odds are highly against other improvements turning him from bad to good. The tail doesn't typically wag the dog.

Wrong, Brees had 57% comp, 11 TDs 15 INTs, 67 rating in his third year. 

Steve Young is another good example of a QB going from suck to good. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Funny how that list is longer ?

Much, much longer.  And there are many more.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Wrong, Brees had 57% comp, 11 TDs 15 INTs, 67 rating in his third year. 

FFS.  Semantics.  He wasn't including Brees' rookie year where he only attempted 27 passes off the bench.  

In his 3rd season as a starter with the Chargers, Brees went to the Pro Bowl.  27/7 TD:INT ratio, 65.5 % completions, 11-4 record.

[Sperm Edwards]

8 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Wrong, Brees had 57% comp, 11 TDs 15 INTs, 67 rating in his third year. 

Steve Young is another good example of a QB going from suck to good. 

No, you're wrong. That was his 2nd season starting, not his 3rd season starting. 

Young is a good example, though. And I'd throw Testaverde's name in there as well. But it's still far & away the exception rather than the rule that QBs suck on the field for 3 seasons or more and then become probowl level starters.

[QB1]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, you're wrong. That was his 2nd season starting, not his 3rd season starting. 

It was his third season in the NFL, and he came into the league with much more college experience. You're being absurd. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, QB1 said:

It was his third season in the NFL, and he came into the league with much more college experience. You're being absurd. 

My post you quoted said 3rd season starting. Read. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

At some point we have to stop making it about the quarterback and start talking about the other ten guys on offense. 

I can't remember a worse offensive roster in the NFL. Even the suck-for-Luck Colts had Reggie Wayne. 

[QB1]

8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

My post said 3rd season as starter. Read. 

Your post invalidated the comparison because of a slight difference. It's still a very similar situation. Even if it was his third year starting you'd say his name wasn't Sam so it isn't the same. Give me a break. 

I'd expect a 3 year college senior who sat his first year in the NFL  to do better in his "second year starting" than a 20 y/o rookie in his third year starting. I'm not even going to get into the mono/covid and how that could have impacted Darnold development- I know you won't want to hear it... Nor difference between having Gase and Schotty Sr. as coaches. 

Drew Brees and Steve Young both when from absolute busts to HOF players. That is a fact. 

[jeremy2020]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Let’s be clear on this.  He’s owed $10mm this coming season. 

He’s still gone, but his salary this year isn’t the reason.

The Jets have to decide on the 5th year option before he plays another snap.. which is 25 million. 

[rangerous]

25 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Wrong, Brees had 57% comp, 11 TDs 15 INTs, 67 rating in his third year. 

Steve Young is another good example of a QB going from suck to good. 

steve young is a good example of a qb going from a suck team to a good team.

[QB1]

Just now, rangerous said:

steve young is a good example of a qb going from a suck team to a good team.

Nah Steve young wasn't a ginger and he was a Mormon so it a bad comp

[genot]

31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or Mitchell Trubisky.  Or Brandon Weeden.  Or Blaine Gabbert.  Or Jimmy Clausen.  Or Josh Freeman.  Or John Beck.  Or Matt Leinart.  Or J.P. Losman.  Or Kyle Boller.  Or Patrick Ramsey.  

Or Justin fields. Zach Wilson. Trey Lance. Mac Jones.

[kelly]

39 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or Mitchell Trubisky.  Or Brandon Weeden.  Or Blaine Gabbert.  Or Jimmy Clausen.  Or Josh Freeman.  Or John Beck.  Or Matt Leinart.  Or J.P. Losman.  Or Kyle Boller.  Or Patrick Ramsey.  

[FidelioJet]

17 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

The Jets have to decide on the 5th year option before he plays another snap.. which is 25 million. 

He's only played 3 years.

They do not have make that decision this off-season.

[jgb]

 

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Alex Smith is the only good example above of someone who was this hopeless-looking after starting this many games. 

Tannehill? We'd be comparatively drooling over Darnold's potential going forward if his numbers mimicked Tannehill's first 3 seasons, even with his then-reputation for being a whiny/wimpy mush.

Brees was a probowler in his 3rd season starting in San Diego.

Allen took a big leap forward in year 3, but wasn't a train wreck in year 2 (30 total TDs in 15 starts, with Frank Gore getting nominally more than half the RB carries and top 3 targets of Brown-Beasley-Knox). Plus he was deemed to be a much bigger project from the get-go than Darnold. 

Could it happen? Odds are it won't; the list of QBs who didn't turn it around dwarfs any list of those who did. Plus the economics of these QBs' extension amounts, plus being in draft slot 2 right now (and unknown in the future), say you need to know sooner. We could keep him and he could turn it around here under new coaching with a better surrounding cast, but odds are highly against other improvements turning him from bad to good. The tail doesn't typically wag the dog.

Odds are low which is why no other team is paying a 1st or straight-up 2nd for Darnold. The trade value will be risk-adjusted.

36 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, you're wrong. That was his 2nd season starting, not his 3rd season starting. 

Young is a good example, though. And I'd throw Testaverde's name in there as well. But it's still far & away the exception rather than the rule that QBs suck on the field for 3 seasons or more and then become probowl level starters.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index3a5c.html?p=5449

"I submit that Testaverde didn't discover some fountain of youth or manage to delay the aging process. He was just really good. And when you are really good at age 30-35, you can afford to lose a little and still be able to play in the NFL to age 40. I can't help but wonder what would have happened if Testaverde had managed to end up with an offense that had a few more good players when he was entering his late 20's. My guess is that he would be practicing his Canton speech."

Vinny is the Roman God of Bad Weaponiz.

6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

He's only played 3 years.

They do not have make that decision this off-season.

Yes, you have to pick it up in May before their 4th year.

[kelly]

1 hour ago, oatmeal said:

Yes let’s give the last ranked QB since entering the league 25 million and hope he gets it. Sounds like a great plan for a rebuilding team ?

[genot]

36 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, you're wrong. That was his 2nd season starting, not his 3rd season starting. 

Young is a good example, though. And I'd throw Testaverde's name in there as well. But it's still far & away the exception rather than the rule that QBs suck on the field for 3 seasons or more and then become probowl level starters.

Not when you have a HC, who doesn't do what every other coach h as done to make it easier on a young QB. Especially considering the talent level around him. At least Brees had Tomlinson and Gates to rely on. 

[oatmeal]

2 minutes ago, kelly said:

Are you related to Sam? Serious question because that’s the only way I can see someone wanting to keep Sam under these circumstances. 

[jgb]

This is like the lottery commission putting photos of past winners on their website to create an emotional "it could be you" vibe so people don't think critically about the probabilities involved. 

Except a lotto ticket is $2. No one is giving up big draft capital to rent him for a year.

[jgb]

28 minutes ago, genot said:

Or Justin fields. Zach Wilson. Trey Lance. Mac Jones.

Odds are one of those dudes will be pretty good.

28 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Nah Steve young wasn't a ginger and he was a Mormon so it a bad comp

Casual bigotry. Nice. Never go full nico, folks.

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is like the lottery commission putting photos of past winners on their website to create an emotional "it could be you" vibe so people don't think critically about the probabilities involved. 

Except a lotto ticket is $2. No one is giving up big draft capital to rent him for a year.

C'mon man.  Project QB's on 1-year deals are all the rage!

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

C'mon man.  Project QB's on 1-year deals are all the rage!

Can't even imagine him starting anywhere next year. So trade big capital to what -- get a good look at him in practice before deciding whether to extend him?

[UntouchableCrew]

25 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

He's only played 3 years.

They do not have make that decision this off-season.

This is incorrect. They exercise the option by May 3rd in the fourth league year, at which point (for 2018 draft picks) the fifth year is fully guaranteed.

For Sam that's the average of the top ten QBs in the NFL and we make the decision by May 2021.

[football guy]

Comparing Darnold to other QBs who turned it around is good discussion to say that its possible, but not sure it carries much weight in the actual evaluation. If you're going based off of comparisons and past examples, the odds are heavily stacked against Darnold. Having been said, I think that "comparisons" are the most overused convivence factor in player evaluation. It's like calling someone a leader. OK- what makes him a leader? Define leadership? What are the qualities that make you feel he is a leader?

There is only one Sam Darnold, just as there is only one Alex Smith. Before Alex Smith, there was no QB who was as bad as he was yet still went on to be an above average QB. Before Carson Wentz, there was no QB who had the amount of statistical success, contract, and pedigree that he did only to get benched. These things are isolated instances and each situation is different. Anything is always possible good or bad. 

I think comparing Sam's situation to Alex Smith is fair. I think comparing Sam's situation to David Carr's is fair. It depends how you want to look at it: glass half-full or glass half-empty. Coaches are optimistic by nature, so I believe most people in the NFL will remain optimistic with Sam because he's the consummate athlete. Fans go either way. 

The reality that I wish fans started to understand is that the Jets view this less about Darnold being the "face of the franchise" and more about determining what is best for the team in both the short-and-long term: 

• QB Darnold + value of #2 pick (trade); or 
• QB #2 pick + value of Darnold (trade). 

That's it. That's the ball game. Factoring in potential and what they believe Sam can do in another system obviously goes into it, but the Jets are well aware that retaining Darnold could mean a new QB in 2022 anyway. Question is which is the best team building philosophy, not necessarily whether Darnold can be redeemed. 

[Icer]

Alex Smith is an incredible story and a serviceable hold the fort guy, but he is still a bust. No one drafts a QB at 1OA passing up Aaron Rodgers for a game manager and walks away happy. Holding up Alex Smith as a maybe Darnold can be that, should be indictment enough that he's not worth the long term investment.