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Sam could still turn it around... these QB's did after early struggles ~ ~ ~


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Alex Smith is the only good example above of someone who was this hopeless-looking after starting this many games.  Tannehill? We'd be comparatively drooling over Darnold's potential going forwar

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or

Yes let’s give the last ranked QB since entering the league 25 million and hope he gets it. Sounds like a great plan for a rebuilding team 👍

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1 hour ago, QB1 said:

Your post invalidated the comparison because of a slight difference. It's still a very similar situation. Even if it was his third year starting you'd say his name wasn't Sam so it isn't the same. Give me a break. 

I'd expect a 3 year college senior who sat his first year in the NFL  to do better in his "second year starting" than a 20 y/o rookie in his third year starting. I'm not even going to get into the mono/covid and how that could have impacted Darnold development- I know you won't want to hear it... Nor difference between having Gase and Schotty Sr. as coaches. 

Drew Brees and Steve Young both when from absolute busts to HOF players. That is a fact. 

Great, therefore Darnold is either Drew Brees or Steve Young. Gotcha. 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Or the second coming of DeShone Kizer.  Or Mark Sanchez.  Or Paxton Lynch.  Or Christian Ponder.  Or Jake Locker.  Or Brady Quinn.  Or Brock Osweiler.  Or Geno Smith.  Or EJ Manuel.  Or Tim Couch.  Or Mitchell Trubisky.  Or Brandon Weeden.  Or Blaine Gabbert.  Or Jimmy Clausen.  Or Josh Freeman.  Or John Beck.  Or Matt Leinart.  Or J.P. Losman.  Or Kyle Boller.  Or Patrick Ramsey.  

Sanchez, Locker and Trubisky were much better than Sam.  

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Just now, Biggs said:

Sanchez, Locker and Trubisky were much better than Sam.  

Sure, though Locker might be debatable.  The point wasn't to suggest Darnold is better or worse or will end up better or worse than the QB's on that list.  Only to suggest that, outside of very rare situations, bad QB's stay bad.  

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Alex Smith is the only good example above of someone who was this hopeless-looking after starting this many games. 

Tannehill? We'd be comparatively drooling over Darnold's potential going forward if his numbers mimicked Tannehill's first 3 seasons, even with his then-reputation for being a whiny/wimpy mush.

Brees was a probowler in his 3rd season starting in San Diego.

Allen took a big leap forward in year 3, but wasn't a train wreck in year 2 (30 total TDs in 15 starts, with Frank Gore getting nominally more than half the RB carries and top 3 targets of Brown-Beasley-Knox). Plus he was deemed to be a much bigger project from the get-go than Darnold. 

Could it happen? Odds are it won't; the list of QBs who didn't turn it around dwarfs any list of those who did. Plus the economics of these QBs' extension amounts, plus being in draft slot 2 right now (and unknown in the future), say you need to know sooner. We could keep him and he could turn it around here under new coaching with a better surrounding cast, but odds are highly against other improvements turning him from bad to good. The tail doesn't typically wag the dog.

 

Eli Manning's first 4 years were pretty bad and he was on some good teams. 

 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, though Locker might be debatable.  The point wasn't to suggest Darnold is better or worse or will end up better or worse than the QB's on that list.  Only to suggest that, outside of very rare situations, bad QB's stay bad.  

I think Locker was worse.  I thought Jake and was thinking of Plummer who was better than Sam.  Early onset of Alzheimer's.  Carry on.

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24 minutes ago, football guy said:

Comparing Darnold to other QBs who turned it around is good discussion to say that its possible, but not sure it carries much weight in the actual evaluation. If you're going based off of comparisons and past examples, the odds are heavily stacked against Darnold. Having been said, I think that "comparisons" are the most overused convivence factor in player evaluation. It's like calling someone a leader. OK- what makes him a leader? Define leadership? What are the qualities that make you feel he is a leader?

There is only one Sam Darnold, just as there is only one Alex Smith. Before Alex Smith, there was no QB who was as bad as he was yet still went on to be an above average QB. Before Carson Wentz, there was no QB who had the amount of statistical success, contract, and pedigree that he did only to get benched. These things are isolated instances and each situation is different. Anything is always possible good or bad. 

I think comparing Sam's situation to Alex Smith is fair. I think comparing Sam's situation to David Carr's is fair. It depends how you want to look at it: glass half-full or glass half-empty. Coaches are optimistic by nature, so I believe most people in the NFL will remain optimistic with Sam because he's the consummate athlete. Fans go either way. 

The reality that I wish fans started to understand is that the Jets view this less about Darnold being the "face of the franchise" and more about determining what is best for the team in both the short-and-long term: 

  • QB Darnold + value of #2 pick (trade); or 
  • QB #2 pick + value of Darnold (trade)

That's it. That's the ball game. Factoring in potential and what they believe Sam can do in another system obviously goes into it, but the Jets are well aware that retaining Darnold could mean a new QB in 2022 anyway. Question is which is the best team building philosophy, not necessarily whether Darnold can be redeemed. 

But it's happened before!!!!! Got a feeling a lot of Darnold defenders' retirement plan is "win the lottery."

 

10 minutes ago, elvispookie said:

At some point we have to stop making excuses for the player  and realize the things that Sam can control..he was pitiful at.  Wrong reads, triple coverage throws..holding on to the ball too long.  Players drafted that high shouldnt need the "perfect" team around him.. you are supposed to be a building block for all coming after.  Funny how we dont have this conversation about Becton.  Damn.. if only the other 4 guys on the line were better.. he would be great.  Yeah no, thats why our line improved from 2019..  he held his own.. and everyone else benefitted. Sam cannot say that.  Do you think Justin Jefferson or Claypool would be great here.. like they would lift Sam? Odds are, Sam would overthrow them or throw into coverage with them here... and their stats would suffer.  Enough with the excuses for this guy.  Time to move on.

It's Geno all over again. Only even more emotionally-charged because Darnold is "a nice kid."

10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Great, therefore Darnold is either Drew Brees or Steve Young. Gotcha. 

So Youre Saying Theres A Chance GIFs | Tenor

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19 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

 

Eli Manning's first 4 years were pretty bad and he was on some good teams. 

So the list of highly drafted, modern QB's (since 2000) who sucked their first 3/4 seasons and went on to success grows to 2:  Alex Smith and Eli Manning.  

Meanwhile, highly drafted QB's since 2000 who started bad and stayed bad:

  • David Carr
  • Joey Harrington
  • Patrick Ramsey
  • Byron Leftwich
  • Kyle Boller
  • Rex Grossman
  • J.P. Losman
  • Jason Campbell
  • Vince Young
  • Matt Leinart
  • JaMarcus Russell
  • Brady Quinn
  • Kevin Kolb
  • John Beck
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Josh Freeman
  • Sam Bradford
  • Tim Tebow
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Jake Locker
  • Blaine Gabbert
  • Christian Ponder
  • Brandon Weeden
  • EJ Manuel
  • Geno Smith
  • Johnny Manziel
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Paxton Lynch
  • Christian Hackenberg
  • Mitchell Trubisky
  • DeShone Kizer
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34 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Are you related to Sam? Serious question because that’s the only way I can see someone wanting to keep Sam under these circumstances. 

dear oatmeal, hi !  😎    happy new year ! ! 🥂

in answer to ur above question, no.. i am Not related to sam.

imho, we should keep sam at least one more season ( unless we get a GREAT trade offer for him ) & build a better roster around him. also, hopefully we can get a MUCH better coaching staff to help him with his development. he has NOT had this with us ( the jets ) to date. 

cheers ~ ~ 

:beer:

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

So the list of highly drafted, modern QB's (since 2000) who sucked their first 3/4 seasons and went on to success grows to 2:  Alex Smith and Eli Manning.  

Meanwhile, highly drafted QB's since 2000 who started bad and stayed bad:

  • Patrick Ramsey
  • Kyle Boller
  • J.P. Losman
  • Matt Leinart
  • JaMarcus Russell
  • Brady Quinn
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Josh Freeman
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Jake Locker
  • Christian Ponder
  • EJ Manuel
  • Geno Smith
  • Blaine Gabbert
  • Brandon Weeden
  • Paxton Lynch
  • Christian Hackenberg
  • DeShone Kizer
  • Mitchell Trubisky

But Darnold is different! He's such a nice, polite young man!

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Just now, kelly said:

dear oatmeal, hi !  😎    happy new year ! ! 🥂

in answer to ur above question, no.. i am Not related to sam.

imho, we should keep sam at least one more season ( unless we get a GREAT trade offer for him ) & build a better roster around him. also, hopefully we can get a MUCH better coaching staff to help him with his development. he has NOT had this with us ( the jets ) to date. 

cheers ~ ~ 

:beer:

Ever try to pour a foundation in a swamp?

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17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Great, therefore Darnold is either Drew Brees or Steve Young. Gotcha. 

cool !  😎

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3 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

 

Eli Manning's first 4 years were pretty bad and he was on some good teams. 

 

His second year, first as a full time starter he had 24 TD's and their Offense was very good.  Great running game but top 10 in passing O.  He always threw picks but he also threw a lot of TD's.  They went 11 and 4 in year 2.  Eli was never consistently good.  He strung together some great games in pressure situations.  If Sam showed that I would be more inclined to go forward with him.  There haven't been enough top performances out of Sam to indicate that he could do what Eli could do.  Eli sucked a lot but he was also really good a lot.  

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Really the only guy on that list that ever was as bad as Darnold is now is Alex Smith. And, to be honest, the fact that the 49ers stuck with him for so long was absolute lunacy. If the Jets were to stick with Darnold for that long, they would seriously see their fan base shrink.

But the real point is that these kinds of career turnarounds are astronomically rare. You can't bank on them, let alone go into a season counting on one. Tannehill, for example, revived his career after serving as a backup at Tennessee. Darnold is going to have to do the same thing: get traded to a team and try to rehabilitate himself as a backup.

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12 minutes ago, elvispookie said:

At some point we have to stop making excuses for the player  and realize the things that Sam can control..he was pitiful at.  Wrong reads, triple coverage throws..holding on to the ball too long.  Players drafted that high shouldnt need the "perfect" team around him.. you are supposed to be a building block for all coming after.  Funny how we dont have this conversation about Becton.  Damn.. if only the other 4 guys on the line were better.. he would be great.  Yeah no, thats why our line improved from 2019..  he held his own.. and everyone else benefitted. Sam cannot say that.  Do you think Justin Jefferson or Claypool would be great here.. like they would lift Sam? Odds are, Sam would overthrow them or throw into coverage with them here... and their stats would suffer.  Enough with the excuses for this guy.  Time to move on.

Becton largely plays a 1v1 position. We can see easily whether he beat the guy across from him... or got beat.

Quarterback is entirely different. 

Stop expecting a chef to make sh*t into filet mignon. 

There has never been an NFL offense that I can think of that had this little talent. For three goddam years! 

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10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

His second year, first as a full time starter he had 24 TD's and their Offense was very good.  Great running game but top 10 in passing O.  He always threw picks but he also threw a lot of TD's.  They went 11 and 4 in year 2.  Eli was never consistently good.  He strung together some great games in pressure situations.  If Sam showed that I would be more inclined to go forward with him.  There haven't been enough top performances out of Sam to indicate that he could do what Eli could do.  Eli sucked a lot but he was also really good a lot.  

Eli sucked a lot more than he was good. Year 2: 24td/17int Year 3: 24td/18int  Year 4: 23td/20int

Completion percentage didn't go over 60% until year 5.

People wanted to run him out of town with Coughlin. . Eli was a bust.

And that was on a team that was good but not meeting expectations - bc of the QB

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Really the only guy on that list that ever was as bad as Darnold is now is Alex Smith. And, to be honest, the fact that the 49ers stuck with him for so long was absolute lunacy. If the Jets were to stick with Darnold for that long, they would seriously see their fan base shrink.

But the real point is that these kinds of career turnarounds are astronomically rare. You can't bank on them, let alone go into a season counting on one. Tannehill, for example, revived his career after serving as a backup at Tennessee. Darnold is going to have to do the same thing: get traded to a team and try to rehabilitate himself as a backup.

We would have collectively ejaculated if Darnold put up the numbers that Tannehill did his first 3 years.

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10 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Really the only guy on that list that ever was as bad as Darnold is now is Alex Smith. And, to be honest, the fact that the 49ers stuck with him for so long was absolute lunacy. If the Jets were to stick with Darnold for that long, they would seriously see their fan base shrink.

But the real point is that these kinds of career turnarounds are astronomically rare. You can't bank on them, let alone go into a season counting on one. Tannehill, for example, revived his career after serving as a backup at Tennessee. Darnold is going to have to do the same thing: get traded to a team and try to rehabilitate himself as a backup.

Exactly. And: (1) Miami Tannehill was much better than Darnold; and (2) this is why no team is giving premium draft capital for Darnold.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We would have collectively ejaculated if Darnold put up the numbers that Tannehill did his first 3 years.

We wouldn't have only already picked up his 5th year option, GM Macc would've already extended him and HC Bowles would be talking about needing to shore up the defense in the upcoming draft.

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10 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Becton largely plays a 1v1 position. We can see easily whether he beat the guy across from him... or got beat.

Quarterback is entirely different. 

Stop expecting a chef to make sh*t into filet mignon. 

There has never been an NFL offense that I can think of that had this little talent. For three goddam years! 

The NE Patriots of this season, the Cincinnati Bengals of this season, the Miami Dolphins. Oh and Flacco balled out with this same cast amnesia much? Maybe we should build around Flacco according to your logic.

 

And a Chef? Sam Darnold? More like NYC Hotdog Cart vendor.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

 

 

Yes, you have to pick it up in May before their 4th year.

So, just so I understand.  I wasn't aware of this.

If we bring him back this year we're locked into him for his 5th year?

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48 minutes ago, football guy said:

Comparing Darnold to other QBs who turned it around is good discussion to say that its possible, but not sure it carries much weight in the actual evaluation. If you're going based off of comparisons and past examples, the odds are heavily stacked against Darnold. Having been said, I think that "comparisons" are the most overused convivence factor in player evaluation. It's like calling someone a leader. OK- what makes him a leader? Define leadership? What are the qualities that make you feel he is a leader?

There is only one Sam Darnold, just as there is only one Alex Smith. Before Alex Smith, there was no QB who was as bad as he was yet still went on to be an above average QB. Before Carson Wentz, there was no QB who had the amount of statistical success, contract, and pedigree that he did only to get benched. These things are isolated instances and each situation is different. Anything is always possible good or bad. 

I think comparing Sam's situation to Alex Smith is fair. I think comparing Sam's situation to David Carr's is fair. It depends how you want to look at it: glass half-full or glass half-empty. Coaches are optimistic by nature, so I believe most people in the NFL will remain optimistic with Sam because he's the consummate athlete. Fans go either way. 

The reality that I wish fans started to understand is that the Jets view this less about Darnold being the "face of the franchise" and more about determining what is best for the team in both the short-and-long term: 

  • QB Darnold + value of #2 pick (trade); or 
  • QB #2 pick + value of Darnold (trade)

That's it. That's the ball game. Factoring in potential and what they believe Sam can do in another system obviously goes into it, but the Jets are well aware that retaining Darnold could mean a new QB in 2022 anyway. Question is which is the best team building philosophy, not necessarily whether Darnold can be redeemed. 

THANK YOU FOR SAYING IT!  I feel like ive been taking crazy pills saying that same thing all over for a while now.  

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16 minutes ago, Biggs said:

His second year, first as a full time starter he had 24 TD's and their Offense was very good.  Great running game but top 10 in passing O.  He always threw picks but he also threw a lot of TD's.  They went 11 and 4 in year 2.  Eli was never consistently good.  He strung together some great games in pressure situations.  If Sam showed that I would be more inclined to go forward with him.  There haven't been enough top performances out of Sam to indicate that he could do what Eli could do.  Eli sucked a lot but he was also really good a lot.  

How well do you think Eli would've done here, with these players and coaches, if the past three years were the first three years of his career? 

673214533_ScreenShot2021-01-07at11_09_54AM.thumb.png.24d3ce51b108cfef06689d3624a9ab5a.png

Honest question. Does anyone on our team from the past three years start on that offense?

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4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

So, just so I understand.  I wasn't aware of this.

If we bring him back this year we're locked into him for his 5th year?

No. 2021 is guaranteed salary in any case. If we pick up the 5th year option by May 3rd then 2022 becomes guaranteed at ~25M. If we do not pick it up but keep him, he becomes FA after next season when options will be are: re-sign/sign&trade/tag/let walk.

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

No. 2021 is guaranteed salary. If we pick up the 5th year option by May 3rd, 2022 becomes guaranteed at ~25M. If we do not pick it up but keep him, he becomes FA after next season. Then options are: re-sign/cut/sign&trade/franchise.

Right, so we're just giving up control of him - but we can bring him back for this year's salary.   And if he turns out to be worthy of keeping then we figure out a way to keep him.

Bottom line though - there's just no way JD keeps him - just too many things can go wrong.

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Just now, FidelioJet said:

Right, so we're just giving up control of him - but we can bring him back for this year's salary.   And if he turns out to be worthy of keeping then we figure out a way to keep him.

Yes but if Jets are going QB in draft, why keep him? Better to trade for best offer this off-season when we at least get something.

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3 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

The NE Patriots of this season, the Cincinnati Bengals of this season, the Miami Dolphins. Oh and Flacco balled out with this same cast amnesia much? Maybe we should build around Flacco according to your logic.

 

And a Chef? Sam Darnold? More like NYC Hotdog Cart vendor.

Patriots have a highly rated offensive line and Julian Edelman. 

Bengals have Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and an aging but still useful AJ Green. 

Miami; I'd take Miles Gaskin, Mike Gesicki and Davante Parker over anyone on our offense.

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6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yes but if Jets are going QB in draft, why keep him? Better to trade for best offer this off-season when we at least get something.

I agree completely. 

I honestly don't see a scenario in which JD can keep Sam.  He'll say all the right things to get the most he can, but...

Taking a QB at 2 is the only legitimate option I can see.

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

This is incorrect. They exercise the option by May 3rd in the fourth league year, at which point (for 2018 draft picks) the fifth year is fully guaranteed.

For Sam that's the average of the top ten QBs in the NFL and we make the decision by May 2021.

I wasn't clear on the 5th year option deadline.  I think this reduces Sam's value greatly.  Basically, whoever trades for him only has him for a year.  I can't see them exercising that 5th year option without him even playing a snap for them.  If he plays well, then they have to compete for his services the next season.

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14 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

How well do you think Eli would've done here, with these players and coaches, if the past three years were the first three years of his career? 

673214533_ScreenShot2021-01-07at11_09_54AM.thumb.png.24d3ce51b108cfef06689d3624a9ab5a.png

Honest question. Does anyone on our team from the past three years start on that offense?

They had a good team, they went 11 and 5.  Eli was and inconsistent mess at times but he could also take the top off a defense with some of the best looking deep balls you will ever see.   I don't see that out of Sam.  I know most Jets fans like to say Eli sucked but as a Jets fan who grew up with Namath I really was conditioned to a QB who turned the ball over but could take the top off a defense.  Eli made some crazy good deep passes in big spots.  Did he absolutely suck at times yes.  I just think he had more talent than Sam throwing the ball and if you're going to get turnovers anyway I prefer the guy with the deep passing talent with the don't give a sh*t gunslinger mentality to the cautious game manager who's turning it over.  Sam doesn't make the big throws and he turns it over.  

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5 minutes ago, Biggs said:

They had a good team, they went 11 and 5.  Eli was and inconsistent mess at times but he could also take the top off a defense with some of the best looking deep balls you will ever see.   I don't see that out of Sam.  I know most Jets fans like to say Eli sucked but as a Jets fan who grew up with Namath I really was conditioned to a QB who turned the ball over but could take the top off a defense.  Eli made some crazy good deep passes in big spots.  Did he absolutely suck at times yes.  I just think he had more talent than Sam throwing the ball and if you're going to get turnovers anyway I prefer the guy with the deep passing talent with the don't give a sh*t gunslinger mentality to the cautious game manager who's turning it over.  Sam doesn't make the big throws and he turns it over.  

Eli did have a knack for making some incredible throws. 

My point isn't that Sam is as good as Eli. I'm not even saying we have to keep Sam. 

I'm saying we need to add more talent before we can give anyone even a fair shake at that position. 

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