Adam Schefter: I expect Sam Darnold to start for the Jets next season

[derp]

41 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm sure I'm reading into his leaked thoughts, but from the way it seems I like the way Douglas is handling this (and I'm far from a fan of half the things he's done).

Starting with the premise that he's either:

1. not drafting a QB at #2
2. possibly drafting a QB at #2 but isn't locked in on it, depending on what other offers come in

He's leaking that he'll keep Sam for another year and try to trade down, but if he can't then he'd "look to upgrade the OL" (i.e. draft Sewell). Again, perhaps I'm reading into this but what this does is further:

1. it keeps Darnold's trade value high, should he change his mind on a QB at #2 (or even somewhat after that) after the combine and/or pro days
2. it doesn't discourage teams from making offers for #2, thinking we're too locked in with Fields or Wilson; that would thereby replace us (as the team to trade up with) with the team right after us. And at that, for some it'd have to wait until draft day to see which one we took.

It's a dance. I'm not a great dancer but I can appreciate others who are. If that fat, bald **** is even dancing lol.

I agree this is the most prudent approach publicly.

Douglas seems like a planner. Signed a bunch of guys to one year deals and then spent the middle rounds of the draft picking up guys at those positions so presumably he'd have fill ins. 

I'd think someone with that approach to team building understands that Darnold's contract situation and status in his development do not mesh well with where the team currently is in the rebuild.

Two things I'd add are:

Lots of the best QB's in the NFL were not taken at the top of their respective drafts and were drafted after QB's who didn't have the same kind of career (Mahomes, Watson, Prescott, Jackson, Allen, Herbert among the young guys - Rodgers and Wilson a little farther into their careers - then the old guys like Roethlisberger, Brees, and of course Brady). The top of the passing statistics is pretty much littered with guys who got passed on.

The Ravens took two QB's in the first round with Ozzie Newsome in charge - Flacco with Douglas around and Jackson after. Both were traded up for, both drafted in the second half of the first round.

I understand the logic behind going QB at 2 and I don't know what the stopgap is, but those two things lead me to believe Douglas isn't going to force something at 2. And I don't think that means that he's sticking with Darnold, though I do think that it's in his best interest for teams to believe that he is.

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Hey, we just disagree on how you build a top offense in this league without having a top 5 QBs. Baker Mayfield is now the product of a better Oline after targeting Conklin in free agency. Obviously they thought RT was pretty damn important & it showed in their running game & their record. 
We have the money for a stud WR after picking Mims last year. We have the money for a stud guard after drafting Clark. We have 2 thirds for a tough RB (Sermon?), and we have #23 & #34 too. So if the Jets are not in the QB market at #2 than Pennei Sewell will by FAR improve the Jets more than any other player they could take at that draft pick. 
Here are the WRs that might be there at #23- Rashod Bateman- Terrace Marshal- Chris Olave- Kadarius Toney- Amon-Ra St.Brown- Seth Williams-Sage Surratt- Tylan Wallace- Marlon Williams- Anthony Schwartz. 
 

Having #34 and that list above tells me JD will move back from #23, stay & pick a CB (Jaycee Horn or Asante Samuel Jr) or Edge (Carlos Basham or Joseph Ossai). And then trade out of #34 for some more value picks already having 2 numbers 3s. 
Joe D has plenty of assets to take what could be a HOF come along every 10 years, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones type LT. 

My point is that there are ways - better ways - of building an excellent line that don't involve using two top 10 picks on tackles in back to back drafts. 

The Browns picked up Conklin as a UFA and kept their first round pick (they certainly didn't burn #2 in the country on Conklin). It's totally different.

Never mind that the #2 pick can be parlayed into a pick that's still hovering in/around #10 overall and at least another 1st rounder for the trouble when there are sought-after QBs there.

The Jets have the money for all that plus another excellent lineman. A line that already has 3 solid linemen - 4 if McGovern is solid, too - would be stupid to use the #2 overall pick on a 5th lineman. It might even be solid enough with 4 plus Fant, but I wouldn't bypass a day 1-2 RT prospect (just not way up at #2).

[slats]

24 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yep. Again, while I'm probably projecting to some degree, but I do think this is what he's doing. Smart & dumb people both can get lucky and unlucky with picks and decisions; dumb people don't typically behave intelligently by luck.

Even when he's made moves I haven't loved, he wasn't being the Rexy braggart along his journey, like returning shots to engage in a Twitter war with Jamal Adams. Here, if he lets it leak that he LOVES one of the QBs at #2, it indirectly screws up the offers he'll receive for #2 as well as the offers he'll get for Darnold.

Even if he does believe in Darnold more than a lot of the fans, his actions aren't the equivalent of closing his eyes & sticking his fingers in his ears, to ensure the offers are low enough that they indirectly make these decisions for him.

I agree that he’s keeping things close to the vest in an effort to maintain and/or inflate the value of Darnold and/or the #2 pick. It’s just smart business. 
 
What they do with Darnold and the QB position in general over the course of free agency will give teams a better idea of whether or not they’re considering QBs at #2 overall. That’s why they need to maintain a speculative interest in Sewell as this year’s best non-QB at #2, otherwise trading out would look like a fire sale. Hopefully over the course of the next couple months, more non-QBs will make their case for #2, muddying the waters for JD watchers that much more. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

I agree this is the most prudent approach publicly.

Douglas seems like a planner. Signed a bunch of guys to one year deals and then spent the middle rounds of the draft picking up guys at those positions so presumably he'd have fill ins. 

I'd think someone with that approach to team building understands that Darnold's contract situation and status in his development do not mesh well with where the team currently is in the rebuild.

Two things I'd add are:

Lots of the best QB's in the NFL were not taken at the top of their respective drafts and were drafted after QB's who didn't have the same kind of career (Mahomes, Watson, Prescott, Jackson, Allen, Herbert among the young guys - Rodgers and Wilson a little farther into their careers - then the old guys like Roethlisberger, Brees, and of course Brady). The top of the passing statistics is pretty much littered with guys who got passed on.

The Ravens took two QB's in the first round with Ozzie Newsome in charge - Flacco with Douglas around and Jackson after. Both were traded up for, both drafted in the second half of the first round.

I understand the logic behind going QB at 2 and I don't know what the stopgap is, but those two things lead me to believe Douglas isn't going to force something at 2. And I don't think that means that he's sticking with Darnold, though I do think that it's in his best interest for teams to believe that he is.

True, but 75-80% of the top 25 passers were taken in those top 32 selections.

It's a far, far lower percentage of RTs. IMO it's overkill to upgrade that position.

You brought up Ozzie Newsome? Good example. He found his LT in the top 10, and then his probowl RT in round 3 (while our dumbass GM was busy reaching for another DT from Iveneverheardofit State). 

How many 3rd round unquestioned-starter level QBs have been drafted in the last decade? Cousins, Watson, Prescott...and that's it unless I'm accidentally missing someone. 

[lattyshakespear]

Great news. And if true Saleh may turn out better than I thought. It should be obvious to anyone with a set of eyes that Sam just needs stability. Imagine if the Browns had listened to the fans and got ridof Baker? They would't be playing for a place in the AFC championship on Sunday.

You draft smart, build around Sam, give him an effective playbook and the kid will come good. 

[oatmeal]

30 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

 

 

 

!!!!!!

[Skeet Ulrich]

9 minutes ago, lattyshakespear said:

Great news. And if true Saleh may turn out better than I thought. It should be obvious to anyone with a set of eyes that Sam just needs stability. Imagine if the Browns had listened to the fans and got ridof Baker? They would't be playing for a place in the AFC championship on Sunday.

You draft smart, build around Sam, give him an effective playbook and the kid will come good. 

Baker's just along for the ride on that team. High level game manager. The Jets should aspire to something better.

[derp]

3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

True, but 75-80% of the top 25 passers were taken in those top 32 selections.

It's a far, far lower percentage of RTs. IMO it's overkill to upgrade that position.

You brought up Ozzie Newsome? Good example. He found his LT in the top 10, and then his probowl RT in round 3 (while our dumbass GM was busy reaching for another DT from Iveneverheardofit State). 

How many 3rd round unquestioned-starter level QBs have been drafted in the last decade? Cousins, Watson, Prescott...and that's it unless I'm accidentally missing someone. 

I'm really focused on the idea of what they do at QB here and what was happening in that post. Top 32 selections is a big, big jump from top 2 selections. You can stay in the top 32 this draft with the Seattle pick. I'm not talking about taking a third round QB - but the risk/reward of taking a guy at the top of the draft. We all get excited about the prospect of drafting a top quarterback but it honestly hasn't worked out that often for guys drafted really high.

You and I both know the Newsome example is a small sample size situation. But I do think the way he's drafted quarterbacks - second half of the first round, and not when teams know you want to draft one - is something that I think Douglas may follow in. That was the point I was making.

 

Time will bear out the kind of prospect Sewell is, too. This is a really strange year to evaluate, given he never played as a junior and we're not going to get a combine. His sophomore year was pretty insane and he looks absolutely freakish physically. Based on that, to me he's in a different tier of the other position player prospects in the draft. He's also been getting dinged quite a bit lately so perhaps the stats on him from early in his career aren't representative of the kind of player he is.

I don't think it's ideal position wise and I think that years of Mike Maccagnan taking the "best player in the draft" when he's really taking an above average but not elite athlete at a non-premium position has taken its toll on the way Jets fans view drafting. On paper, heading into this season, Sewell checked the physical freak box and the good football player box and  that combination is really uncommon, IMO. And I think you take that when you can get it. But - maybe he's not actually that level of prospect. My thought that you take him has been pretty rooted in that idea, and maybe he's a much more technically raw prospect than I've given him credit for and if that's the case I could absolutely see the argument for moving down.

I also think from a roster construction standpoint - we'll see where things are after FA, but the team is pretty gross right now. You could absolutely make a case for bringing in that alpha WR, improving the iOL, and if the team loves a QB go ahead and take him. But right now if you're taking Chase or Smith at 2 or in a trade down, are you confident Darnold's not going to hold them back? Adding an OL helps in the run game and the passing game - the Jets are clearly going to be planning to run to set up the pass, too - and doesn't need someone to complement their skill set in order to make an impact like a QB needs receivers or a receiver needs a QB.

[Mike135]

41 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

 

 

 

Can anyone name our starting WRs from the 1st half of the season?

Then realize of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman and Mims), Sam only had experience with one of them.

Mims obviously was a rookie with zero camp or practice til mid-season. 

So... yeah.

[Rhg1084]

7 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Can anyone name our starting WRs from the 1st half of the season?

Then realize of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman and Mims), Sam only had experience with one of them.

Mims obviously was a rookie with zero camp or practice til mid-season. 

So... yeah.

What’s that have to do with the fact Sam can’t throw an accurate pass?

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Can anyone name our starting WRs from the 1st half of the season?

Then realize of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman and Mims), Sam only had experience with one of them.

Mims obviously was a rookie with zero camp or practice til mid-season. 

So... yeah.

Sam had the last 8 games of the season with at least 2 out of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman, Mims) in the lineup and threw for less than 200 yards in 6 of those 8 games. 

Serious question - Shouldn't our standards/expectations for a 3rd year franchise QB be higher?

 

 

[oatmeal]

12 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Can anyone name our starting WRs from the 1st half of the season?

Then realize of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman and Mims), Sam only had experience with one of them.

Mims obviously was a rookie with zero camp or practice til mid-season. 

So... yeah.

Joe BACKUP Flacco says hello ? 

[Jetster]

7 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sam had the last 8 games of the season with at least 2 out of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman, Mims) in the lineup and threw for less than 200 yards in 6 of those 8 games. 

Serious question - Shouldn't our standards/expectations for a 3rd year franchise QB be higher?

 

 

The offensive scheme was a DISASTER! They ran like 3 plays....over & over & over again. It was ridiculous!

[slimjasi]

Just now, Jetster said:

They ran like 3 plays....over & over & over again.

Ya'll are just making stuff up now. 

Come on, dude. 

[joewilly12]

Sam Darnold has been blah here. 

No emotion. 

No signs of a leader. 

He makes a lot of the same mistakes over and over. 

He can't throw the long ball. 

I hope I'm proven wrong and I hope someone can fix him if the NY Jets keep him. 

 

[BornJetsFan1983]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Darnold sucked prior to Adam Gase.  He's not to blame for all of his problems.  No coach ever is when it comes to bad QB's.

Darbold didnt look too bad his rookie deal, he literally had top 5 game of the week and other good performances after getting adjusted to the system. This idea he sucked wiht bowles is not accurate. The last 3 or 4 games he looked pretty damn good and was leading the team to TD's and nachoes man

[Jetster]

9 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ya'll are just making stuff up now. 

Come on, dude. 

Obviously you didn’t watch the games. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

5 hours ago, usanyj said:

And what happens if Sam doesn't improve to the point of wanting to keep him, but we end up 6-10? This year 6-10 is drafting 10 and up.  To get a qb in the draft you'd likely have to move up, which means trading away draft capital that you need to fill in this team.  Why do this when you are sitting at 2 and can pick from two of the 3 top qbs?

Well the best qb's in the league from the top teams were all drafted 10 or lower. so I dont really agree with you. But if you were correct we could move up when we had a team that was not bottom of league in talent. KC is most obvious example.

You dont spend the 2 on a qb this year, same reason we should have not spent all the captol on Sam when we did. You have to give your QB a chance. Look at the browns they did same as us as far as drafting thier QB, but since then they have added talent, we did not. They even fired and got rid of bad coaches when we refused and signed up for another year of gase, but anyway the point is you build a team that can win with our a qb because when you draft one you have small window to make it work.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Darbold didnt look too bad his rookie deal, he literally had top 5 game of the week and other good performances after getting adjusted to the system. This idea he sucked wiht bowles is not accurate. The last 3 or 4 games he looked pretty damn good and was leading the team to TD's and nachoes man

He played well in 3 of his last 4 games in 2018, but he also had a lot of brutal games his rookie season, so it's hard to draw too much from his rookie season (as is usually the case with QBs, unless they are consistently good right away). 

That's why years 2 and 3 are so important for franchise QBs. And Sam's year 2 was underwhelming and his year 3 was an unmitigated f*cking disaster in which he played like the worst QB in the league. You can't put that all on Gase - Darnold has to take some agency and responsibility over his consistently poor individual performances. 

[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Obviously you didn’t watch the games. 

Right. 

 

[Philc1]

25 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sam had the last 8 games of the season with at least 2 out of the "real" starting 3 (Crowder, Perriman, Mims) in the lineup and threw for less than 200 yards in 6 of those 8 games. 

Serious question - Shouldn't our standards/expectations for a 3rd year franchise QB be higher?

 

 

And that’s still a bottom 3 WR group in the nfl.  Perriman is a JAG and Mims is a rookie 

[Philc1]

18 minutes ago, Jetster said:

The offensive scheme was a DISASTER! They ran like 3 plays....over & over & over again. It was ridiculous!

Gore-Gore-Pass-Punt offense

[slimjasi]

Just now, Philc1 said:

And that’s still a bottom 3 WR group in the nfl.  Perriman is a JAG and Mims is a rookie 

That's fitting because Sam is a bottom 1 QB. 

[Jetster]

6 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Well the best qb's in the league from the top teams were all drafted 10 or lower. so I dont really agree with you. But if you were correct we could move up when we had a team that was not bottom of league in talent. KC is most obvious example.

You dont spend the 2 on a qb this year, same reason we should have not spent all the captol on Sam when we did. You have to give your QB a chance. Look at the browns they did same as us as far as drafting thier QB, but since then they have added talent, we did not. They even fired and got rid of bad coaches when we refused and signed up for another year of gase, but anyway the point is you build a team that can win with our a qb because when you draft one you have small window to make it work.

And they went out & completed their Oline by signing Jack Conklin for 42 million with 30 million guaranteed. FOR A RT! 
Can you believe it? 
Oh, by the way, did you guys here the Browns made the playoffs for the 1st time since 1994? 

[Philc1]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

That's fitting because Sam is a bottom 1 QB. 

I’m looking forward to next season when the Sam haters become as quiet as the QW haters

[slimjasi]

Just now, Philc1 said:

I’m looking forward to next season when the Sam haters become as quiet as the QW haters

This sounds so familiar. 

Oh yea, that's right - we heard the same thing after 2018 and 2019. Third time is a charm, I guess. 

[Philc1]

4 minutes ago, Jetster said:

And they went out & completed their Oline by signing Jack Conklin for 42 million with 30 million guaranteed. FOR A RT! 
Can you believe it? 
Oh, by the way, did you guys here the Browns made the playoffs for the 1st time since 1994? 

Baker was in every statistical category in 2019 the worst QB in the entire NFL

What do the browns do? Draft Wills and sign Conklin

 

Baker improves the following year 

[Philc1]

Just now, slimjasi said:

This sounds so familiar. 

Oh yea, that's right - we heard the same thing after 2018 and 2019. Third time is a charm, I guess. 

The same people were crying endlessly last year about Quinnen Williams 

 

Justin Fields is the next great Ohio St qb bust.  

[Jetster]

4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

And that’s still a bottom 3 WR group in the nfl.  Perriman is a JAG and Mims is a rookie 

A rookie with no camp! I mean Jefferson in Minny had Theilen on the other side & Cook running the ball! ?. 
Dalvin Cook vs Gore ?

Cook comes out of the backfield like he was shot out of a freaking cannon compared to the 37 year old Gore. 

[56mehl56]

3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

I’m looking forward to next season when the Sam haters become as quiet as the QW haters

Hey if comes to be that Sam is our starter in 2021 and he plays well , there will be many of us here eating crow. But if that doesn't happen we've just wasted another season with a bad QB. 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Philc1 said:

The same people were crying endlessly last year about Quinnen Williams 

 

Justin Fields is the next great Ohio St qb bust.  

Quinnen Williams was coming off his rookie year (in which he was hurt). 

Sam has been the starter for 3 years here. 

You don't understand why this is a dumb comparison? 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

A rookie with no camp! I mean Jefferson in Minny had Theilen on the other side & Cook running the ball! ?. 
Dalvin Cook vs Gore ?

Cook comes out of the backfield like he was shot out of a freaking cannon compared to the 37 year old Gore. 

I love Mims but like you said no camp, coming off an injury and just a rookie playing the second hardest position to learn after qb

 

but yeah Sam should be lighting it up with that and a castoff from the buccaneers 

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Quinnen Williams was coming off his rookie year (in which he was hurt). 

Sam has been the starter for 3 years here. 

You don't understand why this is a dumb comparison? 

Sam was good in 2019.  He lost his #1 WR and Adam Gase had a meltdown - recipe for success!

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

The same people were crying endlessly last year about Quinnen Williams 

 

Justin Fields is the next great Ohio St qb bust.  

Clemson QBs drafted before Watson: Tajah Boyd, Charlie Whitehurst, then you have to go all the way back to 1977 for the next one. 

Texas Tech QBs drafted before Mahomes: B.J. Symons, Kliff Kingsbury, some dude named "Billy Joe," Ron Reeves, then two guys before 1980 no one ever heard of.

The belief that the school a QB plays at makes him destined to bust is a fallacy. If some schools are worse at producing QBs, then some by definition must be better. What are these mythical FQB factories, then? They don't exist. Good QBs are the rarest thing in sport. There is no way to come to any statistical conclusion as to what schools -- if any -- are better or worse at producing them.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Sam was good in 2019.