Adam Schefter: I expect Sam Darnold to start for the Jets next season

[jgb]

19 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Would think anyone who saw Pennington's last few post surgery seasons would have to be nuts to take Wilson with the 2nd pick.

Wilson's giving me bust vibes.

[Sperm Edwards]

47 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's not just me. It's every source worth a damn. No one except internet fans has given a top 3 grade to these qbs. 

You keep talking about the past 

How there's never been this situation before 

First off who cares. Have you ever heard of past performance not guarantee future results? Just because something did or did not happen in the past it has no relevance to the future 

You know what else has never happened before? A true sophomore winning the Outland. A tackle scoring 95 on pff or whatever it was. Sewell has never happened before. He's a similar prospect to Munoz or Walter Jones or other greats but he's unique 

I'm pretty sure Sperm you have done zero research on Sewell you just don't like him because of position 

News flash the Jets have 1 good lineman and 1 decent one in McGovern. A team starts 5.There's room for 2 great lineman on the roster 

Every source? I offered you how many opportunities to list for me any teams that have burned a pair of high 1st rounders on a pair of tackles so close to one another, and the great results that followed. You declined to answer, and have still declined to give me any examples, and obfuscate as a substitute.

• Becton
• FA LG (ideally Thuney) 
• McGovern/FA at C/RG
• pick #23-33/Fant

is a line that any good QB can win with, is more investment than most playoff teams make in their lines, plus you get to keep #2 to trade down and recoup another 1st rounder and/or more.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Wilson's giving me bust vibes.

Wilson is going to be a much better pro than fields.  But i agree his injury history needs investigating.  I think his talent and how it translates to the nfl is fantastic.

[DetroitRed]

Douglas is either going to pick a QB early in the draft to compete with Darnold, or blow things up for Watson. There's simply no way the Jets go into summer with Darnold as their only and top QB. If he's here at all. The empty talk about Lafleur liking what he sees is either a prelude to working with him in a competition with a shiny new drafted QB, or an attempt not to devalue trade bait. Let's work from the assumption Douglas has a handle either on Watson's value, or those QBs in the draft. 
On record that I've always like Watson; wanted him bad over Adams. The guy has been a winner and good teammate from Clemson until now. But the Texans want a lot for him. Question for Douglas is are the Jets better off staying with the picks they have, with Wilson or Fields early, or say Mac Jones later in the draft? 
Problem With taking Sewell is like taking safeties so early(i.e., how we got here, instead of taking Watson back in 2017!), it's inevitably going to end up with a misallocation of cap resources. Your cap gets disfigured paying 2 tackles LT money, and more likely either Becton or Sewell leaves via free agency. Simply not plausible you could give both the kind of $ they will be looking for once their ELC runs out, unless you want to franchise one for a bunch of years while paying the other top dollar. And that would really piss off the franchised player. 

And what happens when he demands we hire a the next whoever based on race? And when we don’t he wants a trade. You know, that’s exactly what he’s doing now


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Wilson is going to be a much better pro than fields.  But i agree his injury history needs investigating.  I think his talent and how it translates to the nfl is fantastic.

I could 100% be wrong. I have no real basis for this opinion. Just a gut feel.

[DetroitRed]

Haven’t we learned for Dee Milliner?

Or Blake Cashman


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Scott Dierking]

28 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Players like Sewell don't need their agents to pay for pub

That's more of a Zach wilson thing 

Bit, you know my real issue with Sewell, befoer looking at any real tape on him (and I would have no idea what I was looking for in a nuanced sense)?

He took a year off. In a parlance that I have heard you say many times, coaches coach, players play, and alligators alligate. I am very skeptical of any player that takes a year off. Same thing for Mica Parsons. Maybe to a lesser degree, Ja'Marr Chase. 

Sewell didn't play a very important year in his life.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

16 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The essential flaw in this logic is that you value a bust qb at 2 over an all pro tackle because the quarterback plays qb 

Bird in the hand. 

The draft offers an all pro you take the all pro 

These qb are the next trubisky or rg3 or Ryan leaf 

That's what happens when a team takes a qb at 2 overall 

Where in my posts above did I say we should draft a QB at #2? 

This is about what is more prudent use of #2 assuming they do not take a QB, because the expectation is Douglas will not take a QB there.

But you knew that, and instead chose to say I value + want Ryan Leaf or Trubisky. 

Impressive dishonesty. 

[Maxman]

2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

@Maxman

I would pay money to witness a podcast of Sperm Edwards and Bitonti going at their draft strategy. Engaging, guys.

Yes, I think a 14 hour podcast would do very well. 

[Sperm Edwards]

4 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Yes, I think a 14 hour podcast would do very well. 

I like to read off my written notes, so I'd need a good amount more than 14 hours

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I like to read off my written notes, so I'd need a good amount more than 14 hours

Like a high priced escort I get paid extra to spend the night 

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Where in my posts above did I say we should draft a QB at #2? 

This is about what is more prudent use of #2 assuming they do not take a QB, because the expectation is Douglas will not take a QB there.

But you knew that, and instead chose to say I value + want Ryan Leaf or Trubisky. 

Impressive dishonesty. 

So assuming there's no trade down, what's your pick? Honest question 

We can agree that trade down is what jd is looking for. That deal at 2 overall happens about once every 5 drafts 

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Every source? I offered you how many opportunities to list for me any teams that have burned a pair of high 1st rounders on a pair of tackles so close to one another, and the great results that followed. You declined to answer, and have still declined to give me any examples, and obfuscate as a substitute.

• Becton
• FA LG (ideally Thuney) 
• McGovern/FA at C/RG
• pick #23-33/Fant

is a line that any good QB can win with, is more investment than most playoff teams make in their lines, plus you get to keep #2 to trade down and recoup another 1st rounder and/or more.

The answer is past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Past drafts don't prove anything about this class 

Joe thuney by the way has his best football in the past. When Bill let's a player walk that dude is done. Cmon. 

The team you listed is not good enough to win because it lacks leadership. Do yourself a favor and do 5 minutes of research into Sewell 

He's the guy we wanted Jamal Adams to be but he plays offense. He's Ray Lewis at tackle. Look him up. Please. 

[Bugg]

2 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

And what happens when he demands we hire a the next whoever based on race? And when we don’t he wants a trade. You know, that’s exactly what he’s doing now


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

I'm slightly to the right of...(end of politics). 

Watson isn't being political. Watson in fact at Clemson and with the Texans has been salt of the earth. It logically made sense for the Texans  to interview Bienemy and Saleh. As the highest paid most important player and face of the franchise, the Texans should have at least had some discussions with Watson; that wasn't out of bounds, inmates running the asylum stupidity. it's how the NFL works in 2021. Watson (and Watt) are significant stakeholders here. It's abundantly clear the Texans have in the past few years traded away their best WR for a can of magic beans, fired the guy who did that (and also gave Maccagnan a thumbs up on Hackenberg, but I digress!) and then inexplicably empowered some Pats reject Jesus freak  who doesn't appear to know nor much understand NFL football. JJ Watt is pretty much sounding the same alarm. Watson has so many years of having a shot. Having an idiot take a torch to that is not crazy, racial, political or anything like that. It's common sense. He has so many prime years before he's done. The Texans are setting about to waste several of them. 

[Sperm Edwards]

55 minutes ago, bitonti said:

So assuming there's no trade down, what's your pick? Honest question 

We can agree that trade down is what jd is looking for. That deal at 2 overall happens about once every 5 drafts 

Obviously it depends on how far down they go and who's on the board. Also I don't know these prospects nearly as well as many/most others.

That deal happens less often because typically the teams drafting this highly are shopping for a QB in the draft. The Jets are not, for better or worse (they're going with Darnold and a legit veteran to compete, if they can't land Watson). That's the reason it's so rare, not because of rarity for rarity's sake. 

The last 10 drafts

• 2011 the #1 team took the #1 QB prospect at #1. No one else was considered a top 3 pick at any time iirc
• 2012 #1 team took the #1 QB; then Wash traded their #6 overall pick, plus their high 2nd, plus their next 2 #1 picks after that, to move up to #2 for RGIII because the Rams had just taken Bradford
• 2013 there were no QBs projected to go in the top 2-3 picks once Smith had sufficiently turned everyone off with his charm
• 2014 the only QB taken in the top 20 was Bortles at #3, and he was a reach that high back then so no one was leapfrogging Jacksonville to get him #1 or #2. This time in 2014 everyone (you included) were convinced Manziel was going #1 and had no chance of lasting even to #10, but it didn't happen.
• 2015 the top 2 drafting teams took the top 2 QBs; the ask for Mariota was apparently similar to what people are imagining for Watson now
• 2016 two teams traded up to this area for QBs because you had a marriage of 2 QBs with top 5-ish projections and 2 teams inside the top few picks who weren't QB shopping
• 2017 was a mishmash up top. Trubisky went #3. I guess he was projected to be the first one off the board, but people were so leery of Mahomes being too raw and Watson not having enough arm. Now they're the 2 best QBs in the league under 35.
• 2018 there was a big trade in the top 3 with the Jets moving up even before the draft started. If the Colts & Giants' draft positions were flipped the trade up would've been to 2 not 3. 
• 2019 there was just 1 sure thing QB to get drafted this highly and he went to the team with the #1 pick. No one was trading up for Jones, and without any QBs allegedly the trade down offers weren't that great (the supposed reason the Jets stayed at #3 instead of trading down)
• 2020 might have seen a trade up - some had Miami moving up for Tua instead of letting him fall to them - except other than the Chargers leapfrogging Miami, or Miami moving up to block that, no other QB-needy team was really in striking distance. 

It's really about how the draft lays out. You need the combination of a QB or two with top 5-ish projections, and teams naturally in those slots aren't taking a QB because of a lack of need and/or other prospects at the other top positions (LT, WR, EDGE, maybe CB) the non-needy team is dead-set on taking. 

[Sperm Edwards]

52 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The answer is past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Past drafts don't prove anything about this class 

Joe thuney by the way has his best football in the past. When Bill let's a player walk that dude is done. Cmon. 

The team you listed is not good enough to win because it lacks leadership. Do yourself a favor and do 5 minutes of research into Sewell 

He's the guy we wanted Jamal Adams to be but he plays offense. He's Ray Lewis at tackle. Look him up. Please. 

Trent Brown was a probowler after Bill let him go. His issue is he can't stay on the field, not that he sucks.

Solder was never that great in the first place. He got a lot of mileage off having holding penalties not called, Brady getting rid of it very fast, and probably some of his penalties or whiffs negated by roughing the passer calls if/after some edge rusher breathed near Brady.

If he lets Thuney go it's because he doesn't want to pony up for Thuney and Mason both. Thuney's not old for a guard at 29, and more than needing him for the next 5 years straight they need him for the next 2 years until they can have enough picks to feel confident in their pipeline pick(s) taking over.

I don't think any tackle is worth #2 when we already have a terrific young LT. It doesn't matter how great of a prospect he is; I believe you. 

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

The answer is past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Past drafts don't prove anything about this class 

Joe thuney by the way has his best football in the past. When Bill let's a player walk that dude is done. Cmon. 

The team you listed is not good enough to win because it lacks leadership. Do yourself a favor and do 5 minutes of research into Sewell 

He's the guy we wanted Jamal Adams to be but he plays offense. He's Ray Lewis at tackle. Look him up. Please. 

So easy to refute.

 

 

[DetroitRed]

3 hours ago, Bugg said:

I'm slightly to the right of...(end of politics). 

Watson isn't being political. Watson in fact at Clemson and with the Texans has been salt of the earth. It logically made sense for the Texans  to interview Bienemy and Saleh. As the highest paid most important player and face of the franchise, the Texans should have at least had some discussions with Watson; that wasn't out of bounds, inmates running the asylum stupidity. it's how the NFL works in 2021. Watson (and Watt) are significant stakeholders here. It's abundantly clear the Texans have in the past few years traded away their best WR for a can of magic beans, fired the guy who did that (and also gave Maccagnan a thumbs up on Hackenberg, but I digress!) and then inexplicably empowered some Pats reject Jesus freak  who doesn't appear to know nor much understand NFL football. JJ Watt is pretty much sounding the same alarm. Watson has so many years of having a shot. Having an idiot take a torch to that is not crazy, racial, political or anything like that. It's common sense. He has so many prime years before he's done. The Texans are setting about to waste several of them. 

Not debating or interested in the Texans being poorly run. We are in agreement.  1000% correct.

No team should be forced to hire anyone based solely on skin color.  It’s ridiculous.  And what happens when he pulls the same garbage here.  The white boy Douglas will have to go pretty soon

 

 

 

[56mehl56]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

The answer is past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Past drafts don't prove anything about this class 

Joe thuney by the way has his best football in the past. When Bill let's a player walk that dude is done. Cmon. 

The team you listed is not good enough to win because it lacks leadership. Do yourself a favor and do 5 minutes of research into Sewell 

He's the guy we wanted Jamal Adams to be but he plays offense. He's Ray Lewis at tackle. Look him up. Please. 

So your saying he should be in jail -I'll pass. 

[Marshmello]

 

[ryu79]

Seemed appropriate to rewatch today. Watson is a beast (and Hopkins incredible), but pre Gase Sam was fun to watch too. Devastating to think how he looked this season when you watch him throwing down field here...

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

Seemed appropriate to rewatch today. Watson is a beast (and Hopkins incredible), but pre Gase Sam was fun to watch too. Devastating to think how he looked this season when you watch him throwing down field here...

 

Stop it.

We're only allowed to reference the Covid-19/Greg Van Roten regression year. 

Get your sh*t together, man. We're about Ohio State quarterbacks and mormons these days.

[bitonti]

7 hours ago, nycdan said:

So easy to refute.

 

 

Thuney is going to be 29 next year most guys retire around 30

[Bellpark]

Hi, long rime Jets fan from Australia, first Post. After suffering through McCaghan crazy shopping sprees and Adam Gaze inertia, I am really hopeful for a Douglass/Saleh team at the top. On Sam D, I have a left field idea that I’m sure you will all correct me on but here goes - keeping Sam still has risk and potential cost hits if he continues past next year. Maybe an option is to trade pick 2 back, retain Sam without 5 th year option, and use one of the first rounders we end up with on Mac Jones. He looked very clean and good all round this year, and played a great game in the final. Then we still have many picks to retool, haven’t given the farm away money wise, and probably just as good  a chance of getting a good QB as Fields or Wilson.

[jgb]

18 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Where in my posts above did I say we should draft a QB at #2? 

This is about what is more prudent use of #2 assuming they do not take a QB, because the expectation is Douglas will not take a QB there.

But you knew that, and instead chose to say I value + want Ryan Leaf or Trubisky. 

Impressive dishonesty. 

It’s not an insult to say someone wants Trubisky. Telling you, the book isn’t written on him, yet and he is going to be a player.

[oatmeal]

14 hours ago, Marshmello said:

 

Sams done, no way they really think this before combine etc. Rosen 2.0
 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

It’s not an insult to say someone wants Trubisky. Telling you, the book isn’t written on him, yet and he is going to be a player.

It’s not a compliment, and anyway I wasn’t (and am still not) banging the table for any QB at #2. I’ve freely admitted multiple times I haven’t watched more than a single game’s highlight clips on Fields and not even that on Wilson.

I’m not with you there on Trubisky - and would be pretty unhappy with his play as a #2 overall pick - because he just had some stat padding games against the league's worst pass defenses, and then padded some more garbage time TDs after crapping the bed while games mattered. This season:

vs Detroit (#32 in net pass yds/att; 4550 yds, 38 TDs, 7 INTs) —

1. 3 TDs / 0 INTs in first matchup
2. 1 TD / 0 INTs in second matchup

vs Houston (#28 in net pass yds/att; 4100 yds, 30 TDs, 3 INTs)

1. 3 TDs / 0 INTs

vs Jacksonville (#31 in net pass yds/att; 4200 yds, 34 TDs, 12 INTs

1. 2 TDs, 1 INTs

vs Green Bay (top 10 pass D, but how’s this for stat padding their first matchup?): 

1. 1 TD, 2 INTs, and a fumble-6 while it mattered
2. Then losing 41-10 in the 4th Q he threw 2 more TDs to still lose by 16

On the season he threw 16 TDs / 8 INTs in 9 starts

• 12 TDs / 1 INT against basically nonexistent defenses
• 4 TDs / 7 INTs against the rest.

And "the rest" still included getting benched vs. Atlanta, who was giving up 300 passing yards to everyone except Bridgewater until their week 10 bye (Foles came in relief and promptly threw 3 TDs to win it, with the win credit going to Trubisky because he was the starter).

Bonus: WC game vs New Orleans threw his only TD on the final play of the game to make the score 21-9 instead of 21-3.

Just by the numbers, I’m not seeing a future winner or FQB here. I think if your starter is out for a few weeks you could do worse than Trubisky, particularly if you’re playing a couple of tomato cans and have a healthy Allen Robinson type, but that’s about all he’s good for so far.

Elite WRs don’t make bad QBs good, but it’s inarguable they’re assets that can make meh QBs look better than they are here & there, and that’s been a big boost for him. I think - so far, at least - he’s like Fitzpatrick in that sense. Also in that he’s not the worst QB around and you can beat bad teams with him, but ultimately he’s a borderline starter from whom you’d seek to upgrade every offseason, and who’ll never have postseason success on the rare instance he’s even there. He’ll bounce around the league for years, teasing with a 3-4 TD game here & there in between eating ****.

[jgb]

53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It’s not a compliment, and anyway I wasn’t (and am still not) banging the table for any QB at #2. I’ve freely admitted multiple times I haven’t watched more than a single game’s highlight clips on Fields and not even that on Wilson.

I’m not with you there on Trubisky - and would be pretty unhappy with his play as a #2 overall pick - because he just had some stat padding games against the league's worst pass defenses, and then padded some more garbage time TDs after crapping the bed while games mattered. This season:

vs Detroit (#32 in net pass yds/att; 4550 yds, 38 TDs, 7 INTs) —

1. 3 TDs / 0 INTs in first matchup
2. 1 TD / 0 INTs in second matchup

vs Houston (#28 in net pass yds/att; 4100 yds, 30 TDs, 3 INTs)

1. 3 TDs / 0 INTs

vs Jacksonville (#31 in net pass yds/att; 4200 yds, 34 TDs, 12 INTs

1. 2 TDs, 1 INTs

vs Green Bay (top 10 pass D, but how’s this for stat padding their first matchup?): 

1. 1 TD, 2 INTs, and a fumble-6 while it mattered
2. Then losing 41-10 in the 4th Q he threw 2 more TDs to still lose by 16

On the season he threw 16 TDs / 8 INTs in 9 starts

• 12 TDs / 1 INT against basically nonexistent defenses
• 4 TDs / 7 INTs against the rest.

And "the rest" still included getting benched vs. Atlanta, who was giving up 300 passing yards to everyone except Bridgewater until their week 10 bye (Foles came in relief and promptly threw 3 TDs to win it, with the win credit going to Trubisky because he was the starter).

Bonus: WC game vs New Orleans threw his only TD on the final play of the game to make the score 21-9 instead of 21-3.

Just by the numbers, I’m not seeing a future winner or FQB here. I think if your starter is out for a few weeks you could do worse than Trubisky, particularly if you’re playing a couple of tomato cans and have a healthy Allen Robinson type, but that’s about all he’s good for so far.

Elite WRs don’t make bad QBs good, but it’s inarguable they’re assets that can make meh QBs look better than they are here & there, and that’s been a big boost for him. I think - so far, at least - he’s like Fitzpatrick in that sense. Also in that he’s not the worst QB around and you can beat bad teams with him, but ultimately he’s a borderline starter from whom you’d seek to upgrade every offseason, and who’ll never have postseason success on the rare instance he’s even there. He’ll bounce around the league for years, teasing with a 3-4 TD game here & there in between eating ****.

Sorry I didn’t make my point very well. Trubisky was a terrible draft pick at #2. If he has success — I think it’s more likely than you do, which is of course fine — it will be with his next team likely after he’s brought in as a backup at backup salary.

[Sonny Werblin]

Hearing Rich Eisen conclude it (even just as a fan) makes it seem pretty apparent that we are riding with Sam in 2021. After all, the Jets are bringing the system everyone seems to say Sam has the best chance to excel in to the Jets.